Matchup: Arkansas State vs. Ball State
Line: Ball State -7.5. Total 63.5
Key Points for Arkansas State
-The Red Wolves have lost 3 head coaches in three years after Bryan Harsin moved onto Boise State. This is coming after Gus Malzahn left for Auburn and promptly has led them to a National Championship Bid. Even after all of the head coaching uncertainty, Arkansas State continues to produce and win.
-Dual threat quarterback Adam Kennedy and sophomore wide receiver J.D. McKissic. Kennedy is not nearly as efficient as QB Jordan Lynch of Northern Illinois, but he will be the games biggest factor as the Cardinals could not handle Lynch at all.
-The Red Wolves have plenty of playmaking options in the backfield. David Oku had 511 yards and six touchdowns after 141 carries. Michael
Gordon is a real speedster and was the team's leading rusher and was named
second-team All-Sun Belt. He averaged 6.8 yards for each of his 106
carries to total 717 yards and ten touchdowns. They can also turn to
Sirgregory Thornton, who has 60 carries and averages 5.7 yards per
touch.
Key Points for Ball State
-Ball State led the MAC and rank No. 9 nationally in passing offense because of the play from quarterback Keith Wenning (3,933 yards, 34 touchdowns, six interceptions) and wide receiver Willie Snead (1,429 yards, 14 touchdowns).
-Wenning is the all time leader in just about every Ball State passing category. He also has Jahwan Edwards in the backfield who has run for 5.2 yards per carry and almost 100 per game. He also scored 13
touchdowns.
-Senior defensive end Jonathan Newsome has been a nightmare for opposing
MAC offenses to deal with this year, and as a result, he led the team
with eight sacks and 11.5 tackles for loss. Newsome was named All-MAC first team.
Prediction: Arkansas State is up against the best passing game they've seen all season. It'll be necessary for them to use their dynamic backfield to control the ball and keep it out of the hands of Wenning. I lean Arkansas State, but not with much confidence and will pass on the bet.
Sunday, January 5, 2014
Thursday, January 2, 2014
Cotton Bowl: Oklahoma State vs. Missouri
Matchup: Oklahoma State vs. Missouri
Line: Oklahoma State -1. Total 62.5
Key Points for Oklahoma State
-Cowboys cornerback Justin Gilbert, who is also an extremely good kick returner, has six interceptions and two defensive touchdowns this season.
-Clint Chelf has had an up and down career but really found himself as this season wore on. After sharing duties with J.W. Walsh behind center, Chelf took control and solidified himself as the clear starter.
-What's been missing from OK State in the last ten years has been a dominating defense. That's all changed this season as Mike Gundy's defense ranks 11th in the FBS in yards allowed per-play.
Key Points for Missouri
-It will be important for their big, physical receivers such as Dorial Green-Beckham (55 catches, 830 yards, 12 TD) and L’Damian Wahsington (47 catches, 853 yards, 10 TD) to make an impact in this game.
-Tigers running back Henry Josey came back from a season ending knee injury to have a 1,000-yard season in 2013. Josey is the heart and soul of this Tigers offense.
-James Franklin is the mirror image of Clint Chelf. He can also make plays with his legs, but does most of his heavy lifting through the air.
-The Auburn game was an anomaly for the Tigers. The 59 points they gave up were more than the total they had allowed in their previous four games combined. This is an even more impressive stat considering they played Texas A&M and Ole Miss in that stretch. They'll have to revert back to their early success if they want to beat OK State.
Prediction: A true coinflip, I'd lean Missouri based on the inconsistencies of Clint Chelf.
Line: Oklahoma State -1. Total 62.5
Key Points for Oklahoma State
-Cowboys cornerback Justin Gilbert, who is also an extremely good kick returner, has six interceptions and two defensive touchdowns this season.
-Clint Chelf has had an up and down career but really found himself as this season wore on. After sharing duties with J.W. Walsh behind center, Chelf took control and solidified himself as the clear starter.
-What's been missing from OK State in the last ten years has been a dominating defense. That's all changed this season as Mike Gundy's defense ranks 11th in the FBS in yards allowed per-play.
Key Points for Missouri
-It will be important for their big, physical receivers such as Dorial Green-Beckham (55 catches, 830 yards, 12 TD) and L’Damian Wahsington (47 catches, 853 yards, 10 TD) to make an impact in this game.
-Tigers running back Henry Josey came back from a season ending knee injury to have a 1,000-yard season in 2013. Josey is the heart and soul of this Tigers offense.
-James Franklin is the mirror image of Clint Chelf. He can also make plays with his legs, but does most of his heavy lifting through the air.
-The Auburn game was an anomaly for the Tigers. The 59 points they gave up were more than the total they had allowed in their previous four games combined. This is an even more impressive stat considering they played Texas A&M and Ole Miss in that stretch. They'll have to revert back to their early success if they want to beat OK State.
Prediction: A true coinflip, I'd lean Missouri based on the inconsistencies of Clint Chelf.
Wednesday, January 1, 2014
Sugar Bowl: Alabama vs. Oklahoma
Matchup: Alabama vs. Oklahoma
Location: New Orleans, LA ~ Superdome
Line: Alabama -17. Total 52
Key Points for Alabama
-Alabama goes as their defense does. Which has obviously been their strong suit during their most recent dynasty. AJ McCarron should not be overlooked however. While they're still a run-first team, McCarron leads one of the nation's most efficient passing games.
-The Crimson Tide will stick to their strength. That is playing physical football and utilizing a ground game that ranked third in the SEC in rushing yards per game with an average of 212.
-Alabama ranks 12th in rushing differential, averaging over 103 yards more per game than their opponent.
Key Points for Oklahoma
-Will it be Knight or Bell that will start behind center for the Sooners? Personally, my choice would be Blake Bell. He plays his game similar to Tim Tebow, which works just fine as long as he limits his mistakes. Bell is also much more proficient in his passing as he completes 60% of his throws compared to Knight's 52%.
- Led by star corner Aaron Colvin, the Sooners rank 15th in pass defense. However, the secondary has faltered against better competition.
-To be successful, Oklahoma must run the football. They averaged 7.1 runs per game of 10+ yards. Running back Brennan Clay had 23 such runs while quarterback Trevor Knight had 16 of those runs.
Prediction: This one is pretty obvious, Alabama should win, but the big spread is definitely in question.
Location: New Orleans, LA ~ Superdome
Line: Alabama -17. Total 52
Key Points for Alabama
-Alabama goes as their defense does. Which has obviously been their strong suit during their most recent dynasty. AJ McCarron should not be overlooked however. While they're still a run-first team, McCarron leads one of the nation's most efficient passing games.
-The Crimson Tide will stick to their strength. That is playing physical football and utilizing a ground game that ranked third in the SEC in rushing yards per game with an average of 212.
-Alabama ranks 12th in rushing differential, averaging over 103 yards more per game than their opponent.
Key Points for Oklahoma
-Will it be Knight or Bell that will start behind center for the Sooners? Personally, my choice would be Blake Bell. He plays his game similar to Tim Tebow, which works just fine as long as he limits his mistakes. Bell is also much more proficient in his passing as he completes 60% of his throws compared to Knight's 52%.
- Led by star corner Aaron Colvin, the Sooners rank 15th in pass defense. However, the secondary has faltered against better competition.
-To be successful, Oklahoma must run the football. They averaged 7.1 runs per game of 10+ yards. Running back Brennan Clay had 23 such runs while quarterback Trevor Knight had 16 of those runs.
Prediction: This one is pretty obvious, Alabama should win, but the big spread is definitely in question.
Compass Bowl: Vanderbilt vs Houston
The Commodores came into this season facing adversity, with one of the team's best players being removed for the program, along with several other players that were involved. They were able to overcome though, beating Florida and Tennessee in four game winning streak that brings them into the bowl. Houston started the season hot, winning five straight before dropping to BYU by a point. A brutal November schedule saw the Cougars go 1-3, but they hung tight with UCF and Louisville before succumbing
Vanderbilt's running game wasnt going to be the same after Zac Stacy headed to the NFL, and Jerron Seymour and Wesley Tate struggled to fill in all the voids for him. Vandy averaged just 3.5 yards per carry this season, as Seymour and Tate averaged 4.4 and 4.1 respectively. The pair combined for just 26 runs of more than ten yards. Its unlikely that It will get better with Austyn Carta Samuels, the regular signal caller, forced to miss the bowl game after having surgery to repair a torn ACL. In his stead Patton Robinette will start, a redshirt freshman who has started a pair of games earlier this year. He completed 58% of his passes this season, for 7.1 yards per attempt with a pair of touchdowns and three picks. It will likely be up to Jordan Mathews though to make big plays if the Vanderbilt offense really hopes to light things up. Mathews is one of the better receivers in the nation, hauling in 107 passes for 1334 yards. He had 28 receptions of more than 15 yards, and moved the chains on 10 of his 17 third down receptions (9-14 on less than third and ten) and converted four of his five fourth down catches. The presence and volume of Mathews helped open up the big play for Jonathan Krause, who averaged 17.2 yards per catch this season.
The Houston offense isn't as exciting as in years past, averaging just 5.85 yards per play, but they still averaged 422.5 yards per game and scored 34 points a game. Freshman John O'Korn had several big games this season, tossing three or more touchdowns in half of his starts this season. He struggled throughout November though, completing just 51.3% of his passes and averaging 5.1 yards per attempt. He also had only four touchdown passes, to go with four interceptions. He had a pair of dangerous receivers to work with in Deontay Greenberry and Daniel Spencer. Greenberry had 1106 yards this season, averaging 14.6 yards per catch. Spencer averaged 15.3 yards per catch, with 20 receptions of more than 15 yards. On the ground, Ryan Jackson took 135 carries for 655 yards. Jackson had 21 runs of more than ten yards, and actually got stronger as games went on, averaging 5.4 yards per carry in the second halves of games.
Vandy's defense allowed 5.1 yards per play this season, while allowing just 352 yards per game. It was largely thanks to a pass defense that kept opponents from getting yards after the catch, allowing only 9.8 yards per reception. Kenny Ladler lead the team with five interceptions, and totaled 87 tackles this season. His play helped keep the big play rate through the air at just 13%. Houston struggled to protect QBs allowing a pressure rate of 13.9%, but Vandy totaled just 24 sacks all season. They made a few plays in the backfield though, with a 9.4% tackle for loss rate. Caleb Azubike and Walker May lead the Commodores in that category, combing for 18 stops behind the line.
The Cougars were mostly successful shutting down run game this season, allowing just 3.5 yards per carry and only allowing BYU and Rutgers to edge of the 200 yard mark. They did it without making a ton of plays in the backfield, with just a 7.4% tackle for loss rate. Houston had a pair of linebackers go over the hundred tackle mark, as Efrem Oliphant and Derrick Mathews totaled 123 and 110 respectively. Both made a ton of solo tackles, 136 between the two of them. The pass defense was boom or bust, allowing 16.4% of the passes thrown against them to go for more than fifteen yards, but intercepting 23 passes. Adrian McDonald had five, while Zachary McMillian and Trevon Stewart each had four picks.
The question in this game will be if Jordan Mathews can take advantage of the big plays Houston leaves on the field, and if O'Korn's November performances were an anomaly or the regular against talented squads. If Cart-Samuels is playing, this game is a big Vanderbilt win. With Robinette playing, its a tight one with Vandy coming up positive in the end.
Vanderbilt's running game wasnt going to be the same after Zac Stacy headed to the NFL, and Jerron Seymour and Wesley Tate struggled to fill in all the voids for him. Vandy averaged just 3.5 yards per carry this season, as Seymour and Tate averaged 4.4 and 4.1 respectively. The pair combined for just 26 runs of more than ten yards. Its unlikely that It will get better with Austyn Carta Samuels, the regular signal caller, forced to miss the bowl game after having surgery to repair a torn ACL. In his stead Patton Robinette will start, a redshirt freshman who has started a pair of games earlier this year. He completed 58% of his passes this season, for 7.1 yards per attempt with a pair of touchdowns and three picks. It will likely be up to Jordan Mathews though to make big plays if the Vanderbilt offense really hopes to light things up. Mathews is one of the better receivers in the nation, hauling in 107 passes for 1334 yards. He had 28 receptions of more than 15 yards, and moved the chains on 10 of his 17 third down receptions (9-14 on less than third and ten) and converted four of his five fourth down catches. The presence and volume of Mathews helped open up the big play for Jonathan Krause, who averaged 17.2 yards per catch this season.
The Houston offense isn't as exciting as in years past, averaging just 5.85 yards per play, but they still averaged 422.5 yards per game and scored 34 points a game. Freshman John O'Korn had several big games this season, tossing three or more touchdowns in half of his starts this season. He struggled throughout November though, completing just 51.3% of his passes and averaging 5.1 yards per attempt. He also had only four touchdown passes, to go with four interceptions. He had a pair of dangerous receivers to work with in Deontay Greenberry and Daniel Spencer. Greenberry had 1106 yards this season, averaging 14.6 yards per catch. Spencer averaged 15.3 yards per catch, with 20 receptions of more than 15 yards. On the ground, Ryan Jackson took 135 carries for 655 yards. Jackson had 21 runs of more than ten yards, and actually got stronger as games went on, averaging 5.4 yards per carry in the second halves of games.
Vandy's defense allowed 5.1 yards per play this season, while allowing just 352 yards per game. It was largely thanks to a pass defense that kept opponents from getting yards after the catch, allowing only 9.8 yards per reception. Kenny Ladler lead the team with five interceptions, and totaled 87 tackles this season. His play helped keep the big play rate through the air at just 13%. Houston struggled to protect QBs allowing a pressure rate of 13.9%, but Vandy totaled just 24 sacks all season. They made a few plays in the backfield though, with a 9.4% tackle for loss rate. Caleb Azubike and Walker May lead the Commodores in that category, combing for 18 stops behind the line.
The Cougars were mostly successful shutting down run game this season, allowing just 3.5 yards per carry and only allowing BYU and Rutgers to edge of the 200 yard mark. They did it without making a ton of plays in the backfield, with just a 7.4% tackle for loss rate. Houston had a pair of linebackers go over the hundred tackle mark, as Efrem Oliphant and Derrick Mathews totaled 123 and 110 respectively. Both made a ton of solo tackles, 136 between the two of them. The pass defense was boom or bust, allowing 16.4% of the passes thrown against them to go for more than fifteen yards, but intercepting 23 passes. Adrian McDonald had five, while Zachary McMillian and Trevon Stewart each had four picks.
The question in this game will be if Jordan Mathews can take advantage of the big plays Houston leaves on the field, and if O'Korn's November performances were an anomaly or the regular against talented squads. If Cart-Samuels is playing, this game is a big Vanderbilt win. With Robinette playing, its a tight one with Vandy coming up positive in the end.
Discover Orange Bowl: Clemson vs Ohio State
The Orange bowl will feature two of the nation's most exciting offenses, the pair combing to score an average of 80 points per game. Both have enigmatic signal callers, who were Heisman candidates at one point this season before falling in the race. Both teams also allowed just 21 points a game to opponents, setting up what promises to be one of the best games of the bowl season.
Tahj Boyd came into the season as one of the top rated QBs, and upheld that position all season. He was able to complete 67.6% of his passes for 9.3 yards per attempt, while converting 40% of his third down attempts with just a single turnover on third down. However, his fourth quarters were a big departure, when he posted just a 51.5% completion rate, was -1 in touchdowns to interceptions, and averaged just 6.9 yards per attempt. With as many big plays as the Clemson offense had, Boyd should not have had any struggles. Sammy Watkins could be one of the first receivers off the board in April if he declares, averaged 14.6 yards per catch ans totaling 1237 yards with ten touchdowns. He had 22 receptions of at least fifteen yards, and converted 75% of his third down receptions. Martavis Bryant is a receiver that should get more looks, averaging 20.5 yards per catch this season and going eight for nine on his third down catches. The offensive line held up well, allowing just a 9.9% pressure rate, while helping a run game get to 4.1 yards per carry. Roderick McDowell took 177 of the team's carries for 956 yards, which he should be able to hit the thousand yard mark this season. McDowell is especially hot right now, averaging over six yards a carry in November and scoring three touchdowns.
The Ohio State offense is truly run based. Carlos Hyde multiple times this season saved the team, starting with a brilliant performance against Northwestern. Hyde was an electric runner, totaling up 7.7 yards per carry and scoring 14 touchdowns, while averaging 5.1 yards per carry in the redzone. Starting with that Northwestern game, he rushed for at least 110 yards per game, and failed to average more than five yards per carry just once (against Wisconsin). Braxton miller took the next highest carry total as a QB, carrying the ball 153 times for 1033 yards. He also scored ten touchdowns, and was 80% in converting third and short carries. Miller was pretty good through the air as well, averaging 8.1 yards per attempt on his 231 dropbacks. He threw only five interceptions, and converted 40.5% of his third down attempts despite completing only 50% of those passes. The passing game though was never really explosive, averaging just 11.8 yards per catch, ranking 82nd in passing plays over fifteen yards.
Clemson's defense allowed just at 5 yards per play this season, and forced 26 turnovers. Spencer Shuey lead the charge for the Tigers, with 89 tackles, 5.5 of them for loss. The Tigers allowed just 3.7 yards per carry on the ground, and only allowed four teams all season to do better than four yards per attempt. Their 19 touchdowns surrendered is also somewhat misleading, since it was just the pair of teams from Georgia that scored 9 of them. The pass defense was just as solid, allowing only 52.4% of the passes to be completed, while allowing just twelve touchdowns through the air. Bashaud Breeland was the best player in the secondary, leading the team with four interceptions and defending ten passes while totaling 52 tackles.
The Buckeyes defense was exceptionally good against the run, allowing just 3.1 yards per carry. Only eight touchdowns were scored against them on the ground, thanks largely to Ryan Shazier's 16.5 tackles for loss against the run. Shazier amassed seven more sacks while also garnering 135 tackles with four passes defended and four forced fumbles. Noah Spence lead the charge against opposing passers with 7.5 sacks and four more QB hurries. However, Spence is now suspended for an undisclosed rule, so the pass rush could falter a bit. That will certainly make it tougher on Bradley Roby, who defended 13 passes to lead the team's pass defense, with Doran Grant defending 10 more. Their work though wasnt enough as the Buckeyes allowed 60.5% of passes to be completed for seven yards per attempt with 26 touchdowns through the air.
Clemson has been just about as good as everyone expected them to be this season, but they had a pair of huge games where they came out flat and got beaten up badly. Ohio State thoroughly outclassed a down Big Ten, but had a let down themselves in the championship game to lose a shot at the national title. If Tahj Boyd can keep his composure, the Tigers could keep the game within hand. And without the pass rush of Spence, he should be able to. Clemson wins a nail biter.
Tahj Boyd came into the season as one of the top rated QBs, and upheld that position all season. He was able to complete 67.6% of his passes for 9.3 yards per attempt, while converting 40% of his third down attempts with just a single turnover on third down. However, his fourth quarters were a big departure, when he posted just a 51.5% completion rate, was -1 in touchdowns to interceptions, and averaged just 6.9 yards per attempt. With as many big plays as the Clemson offense had, Boyd should not have had any struggles. Sammy Watkins could be one of the first receivers off the board in April if he declares, averaged 14.6 yards per catch ans totaling 1237 yards with ten touchdowns. He had 22 receptions of at least fifteen yards, and converted 75% of his third down receptions. Martavis Bryant is a receiver that should get more looks, averaging 20.5 yards per catch this season and going eight for nine on his third down catches. The offensive line held up well, allowing just a 9.9% pressure rate, while helping a run game get to 4.1 yards per carry. Roderick McDowell took 177 of the team's carries for 956 yards, which he should be able to hit the thousand yard mark this season. McDowell is especially hot right now, averaging over six yards a carry in November and scoring three touchdowns.
The Ohio State offense is truly run based. Carlos Hyde multiple times this season saved the team, starting with a brilliant performance against Northwestern. Hyde was an electric runner, totaling up 7.7 yards per carry and scoring 14 touchdowns, while averaging 5.1 yards per carry in the redzone. Starting with that Northwestern game, he rushed for at least 110 yards per game, and failed to average more than five yards per carry just once (against Wisconsin). Braxton miller took the next highest carry total as a QB, carrying the ball 153 times for 1033 yards. He also scored ten touchdowns, and was 80% in converting third and short carries. Miller was pretty good through the air as well, averaging 8.1 yards per attempt on his 231 dropbacks. He threw only five interceptions, and converted 40.5% of his third down attempts despite completing only 50% of those passes. The passing game though was never really explosive, averaging just 11.8 yards per catch, ranking 82nd in passing plays over fifteen yards.
Clemson's defense allowed just at 5 yards per play this season, and forced 26 turnovers. Spencer Shuey lead the charge for the Tigers, with 89 tackles, 5.5 of them for loss. The Tigers allowed just 3.7 yards per carry on the ground, and only allowed four teams all season to do better than four yards per attempt. Their 19 touchdowns surrendered is also somewhat misleading, since it was just the pair of teams from Georgia that scored 9 of them. The pass defense was just as solid, allowing only 52.4% of the passes to be completed, while allowing just twelve touchdowns through the air. Bashaud Breeland was the best player in the secondary, leading the team with four interceptions and defending ten passes while totaling 52 tackles.
The Buckeyes defense was exceptionally good against the run, allowing just 3.1 yards per carry. Only eight touchdowns were scored against them on the ground, thanks largely to Ryan Shazier's 16.5 tackles for loss against the run. Shazier amassed seven more sacks while also garnering 135 tackles with four passes defended and four forced fumbles. Noah Spence lead the charge against opposing passers with 7.5 sacks and four more QB hurries. However, Spence is now suspended for an undisclosed rule, so the pass rush could falter a bit. That will certainly make it tougher on Bradley Roby, who defended 13 passes to lead the team's pass defense, with Doran Grant defending 10 more. Their work though wasnt enough as the Buckeyes allowed 60.5% of passes to be completed for seven yards per attempt with 26 touchdowns through the air.
Clemson has been just about as good as everyone expected them to be this season, but they had a pair of huge games where they came out flat and got beaten up badly. Ohio State thoroughly outclassed a down Big Ten, but had a let down themselves in the championship game to lose a shot at the national title. If Tahj Boyd can keep his composure, the Tigers could keep the game within hand. And without the pass rush of Spence, he should be able to. Clemson wins a nail biter.
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