Conference Predictions

Sun Belt:  This conference really comes down to a one horse race. Louisiana Lafayette is the deepest squad in the conference after returning almost every major contributor from a year ago. Arkansas State should be the closest team but questions in the trenches and another coaching change should lead to the Ragin Cajuns walking through this one.

MAC: Ah #MACtion. Last year we missed out on seeing NIU play in a second consecutive BCS game when they got shellacked by Bowling Green in the title game. This year it's the Falcons that return the excellent QB and an experienced front. They should be able to reach the title game again fairly easily with their division currently on the downswing. NIU might have some trouble though in getting a grudge match, with a Toledo team that is deep in the trenches and Ball State lurking as well. Matt Johnson though should take the Falcons all the way though again this year.

MWC:  Boise State has been the most prolific mid major in the college football landscape since stealing a win against Oklahoma on that fateful night in Arizona. They've been able to maintain a spot near the top of that group despite coaching attrition and recruiting disadvantages. They'll return 9 defensive starters and some interesting pieces on offense but it will be very difficult without Chris Peterson to stay atop a group of talented teams in the Mountain. Fresno State even without a Carr at QB is a deep and talented squad while Utah State returns possibly the most exciting player in QB Chuckie Keeton. Boise likely has enough to stay on top but if Utah State's line can come together don't doubt them and a very solid defense.

American: The remnants of the Big East lost one of their premier schools to Conference defection when Louisville jumpeded ship leaving mote uncertainty atop the conference. UCF outgunned Baylor last year to cap their season but return without Blake Bortles or Storm Johnson and a new line. Houston is deeper and more experienced than last year but might see huge regression in turnover margin. Cincinnati has a wealth of offensive weapons but is breaking in a new QB and a new defensive secondary almost in entirety. UCF likely has too tough of a schedule so it's a toss up between Cinncy and Houston.

CUSA: This conference is interesting for who is the likely runner up. Marshall returns with of of the nation's best QBs on Rakeem Cato under center and a lot of experience everywhere else. In that next tier you have last year's champions Rice looking to repeat, a senior laden UTSA looking to continue its surge from program infancy and a Florida Atlantic squad that is also on the precipice after several years of strong recruiting. None of these teams has any real stars but they're all deep and could find themselves in a title hunt.

Big12: This whole off season the press has gone to Oklahoma. They did destroy Bama in the bowl game and they do get Baylor and OK State coming to Norman. But they also lose just about every skill position offensive player and have a few question marks in the secondary. This leaves the door open for reigning champ Baylor to snatch the title again. Bryce Petty still has plenty of targets left and the Baylor defensive front is terrifying. They should repeat as Champs. Lurking in the wings though is a still very strong OK state squad who could dark horse in if they survive a nightmare away schedule.

Pac12:  Stanford and Oregon are poised to continue to stand atop the conference. But this should be Oregon's year to reclaim the title. They'll return a majority of offensive star power and the defensive front is staffed by former four and five star recruits each entering their third year in the program. The defining reason might be though the loss of Derek Mason to Vandy.  It also doesn't help they'll only return 5 starters on offense. In the South UCLA and it's Heisman candidate QB Hundley are the presumed favorites. But USC has a real chance to slide into that title game if Cody Kessler keeps up his form from the stretch run of last year.

ACC: FSU is going to win the ACC. They're basically an NFL team lite. The only team in the conference that could possibly challenge them is Clemson and they get the Tigers at home. Across from them j  the title game could be almost anyone from the Coastal. Duke took a big jump forward but has a tough road slate while Miami and VT both have questions at QB and on offense.

Big Ten:With the loss of Braxton Miller the Buckeyes hopes of capturing a Big Ten title this year are likely sunk. With Miller they could have overcome the loss of talent at the skill positions and line. But coupled with needing to play at Michigan State it's probably Sparty's year again. The Spartans will need to replace several defensive standouts but the offense shouldn't be so pathetic either. In the West Wisconsin is leaps ahead of everyone else, and the Badgers should have the top running game in the nation. But an utterly abysmal passing game will keep them from a Rose Bowl trip.

SEC: With the Big Ten and Pac12 the SEC is likely to be the only conference that doesn't feature one team likely to just run away with the title. Alabama is the favorite in the West again. Lots of folks will forget that Bama was basically an insane fluke and too many turnovers from winning against both Auburn and OU. The Tigers will challenge again but the Tide are still fully loaded and should come back with a vengeance. Opposite them in the title game should likely come down to a very very deep South Carolina squad that replaces several of its stars, or a Georgia team that has some of the best positional talent in the country but with an untested offensive line

Into the playoff the most likely four teams will be FSU, Oregon, Alabama,  and Baylor. Baylor sneaks in thanks to a stronger conference brand than a Big Ten that will likely see some untimely upsets occur with how close in parity they are.

Defense Wins Championships

One of the oldest cliches in professional sports is that Offense puts people in the seats, but Defense wins championships.  With the NBA playoffs in full swing now, its as good a time as ever to examine how true it is for the league.  To see just what effect both play, we’ll start by looking at which teams make the playoffs versus those that don’t. 

From 2004-2012, the league average efficiency on both sides of the court averaged right around 107 points per 100 possessions.  The average that a team needed to hit offensively to be amongst contenders was 108.2, while teams that failed to qualify averaged in at 104.8.  These numbers are pretty close to their defensive counterparts (109 for non playoff teams, 104.6 for playoff qualifiers).  The below chart gives a pretty good overview of how league scoring has trended, with a rise until the 2008 season followed by a pretty sharp drop off

We do see the old cliché holding, with team’s that made the playoffs sporting a better than league average defensive rating at a statistically significant level.  We also though see these same teams holding a significant offensive edge over their less competitive peers.  To advance in the playoffs though, does it take being a grittier defensive team? 

The data says not particularly moreso than being a good offense.  Teams that advanced through the first round typically shared again the fact that they were superior to their opponents in both phases of the game.  During the studied period, the typical teams meeting in the championship also did not display a real difference between their offensive or defensive capabilities.  Both held well above league average offenses and defenses though.

So, it would seem that the mantra has some weight, as teams that were better than league average were more likely to make the playoffs.  However, they were not so much more likely than the teams that played superior offense to do so.  

2014 Kentucky Derby Thoughts

In a field of twenty elite three year olds, it's hard to narrow down exactly who you like. Let me try to do that.

California Chrome - The best horse in the field. Impressive win in the Santa Anita Derby, can press the pace but can also sit back and rally. Odds will likely be minuscule in a 20 horse field though.

Wicked Strong - The Wood Memorial winner. Has plenty in the tank to make a strong stretch run if he doesn't encounter too many traffic problems prior to that. Even so, he had to swing out wide in the Wood and had plenty left for the win.

Vicar's in Trouble - Draws the dreaded #1 spot. Louisiana Derby winner will likely be towards the front early. May tire out due to the fact that there is a ton of speed in this race which may press the pace too much for his liking.

Dance With Fate - Bluegrass winner has an impressive resume and plenty of momentum. The only knock on him is that all of his wins have come on a synthetic surface. Colt likes to come well off the pace and may rally late, but has too many question marks.

Wildcat Red - Was an unfortunate second in the Florida Derby. Constitution will not be running for the roses and "Red" has plenty of speed to win this race. A perfect trip by Javier Castellano in Florida was the main reason why Red did not get that win.

Hoppertunity - Scratched. Was Baffert's best shot at the Derby. Did not agree with the 6/1 ML odds, maybe a threat further into the triple crown.

Chitu - Sunland Derby winner out-dueled his stable mate Midnight Hawk. Baffert trained horse will need to pull of a Mine That Bird miracle with this pressing pace.

Danza - Pletcher trained Arkansas Derby winner (at 41/1 odds) that has come out of nowhere. Ran by far his best race and was an optional claimer just 3 times out. The proverbial dark horse.

Samraat - Sticks close to the pace and likes to stalk. Disappointing finish in the Wood Memorial, but could finish near the front with a strong trip.

Candy Boy - California stakes winner was third best in the Santa Anita Derby. Out-dueled Chitu earlier in the year at Santa Anita, but looked very weak in the stretch.

Tapiture - Loves Churchill Downs, may actually be better suited for the Preakness as the added distance could prove troubling for him.

OK, that is still way too many damn horses. After second glance, it's going to be hard for any horse to beat Santa Anita Derby winner California Chrome. Wildcat Red is certainly worth a look at 20/1 after his solid performance in the Florida Derby. Vicar's in Trouble is going to come out of the 1 spot and has long 30/1 odds as a result. The horse is much better than that. Wicked Strong impressed in the Wood Memorial and could rally late to round out the super.

1st - California Chrome
2nd - Wildcat Red
3rd - Vicar's in Trouble
4th - Wicked Strong

Does Colin Cowherd have a point about John Wall?

The Wizards 2013-2014 season really has to be considered a great success.  They've reached the playoffs for the first time since 2008, reaching their highest win total since 2004.  One of the major contributing factors has been that 2010 first overall pick John Wall has been healthy all season, playing in all 82 games for the first time in his career.  Wall has played well this season, reaching his first all star game and has lead the league with 721 assists.

Colin Cowherd though has not shared the enthusiasm for the young PG.  Some of his criticism is a little over the top (questions of Wall's ability to sell jerseys, or his dancing ability), but he also brings up aspects of Wall's game that deserve some observation.  The biggest critique starts with John's shooting, illustrated in the below shot chart.

John Wall's Shot chart 2013-2014 Regular Season
Red: Below League Average
Yellow: Around League Average
Green: Above League Average

As we can see, Wall has struggled in comparison with the rest of the league in a lot of areas, going below league average in eight of the fourteen regions.  Amongst point guards, his 52.4% True Shooting rate ranks him just 36th amongst qualifying players.  Thats behind the likes of Jordan Farmar, and Alec Burks, and in the same zone as Brandon Knight and Ben Udrih, not exactly elite company.  Wall is still a developing shooter, he dramatically increased his volume of three point attempts, but struggled convert a lot of those shots.  He ranked just 23rd amongst qualifying point guards (players who played a majority of at least 60 games and at least 1500 minutes as a PG) with a total of 35%.  John Wall is just not a very good shooter.

His offensive rating also wasn't particularly high, ranking 20th  amongst qualifying PGs.  This is a surprising fact, since Wall does a good job of drawing fouls (12.5% of his shots draw one), and his assist rate is around 40% (in terms of points scored while he's on the court), but its the turnovers that really hurt.  Wall lead the league in turnovers this season, and posted a 2.44 Asssist to turnover ratio, 17th amongst his peers.  

Defensively Wall is a solid player.  His steals to turnover ratio is similar to most of his contemperaries, at about .5.  His ability to guard other players in the 10-20 foot region is pretty solid, allowing 39,1% at 10-14 feet and just 401.1 at 15-20, both in the upper half of eligible guards.  

Overall it paints a picture of Wall being a solid player, but one that if he can't improve his shooting won't be one that the Wizards can really center themselves around.  So while some of Cowher'ds concerns might be a little ridiculous, the main thrust holds up to us.  

NCAAB 2014: Final 4 Charts

NCAAB 2014: Elite 8

Florida(1) vs Dayton(11): Can the Flyers run continue?  They pulled away from Stanford in late in the first half and never looked back.  They did it by being very efficient inside, shooting 57% from two point range, 7% better than during the regular season.  They weren't nearly as dominant on the defensive glass though, picking up just 62% of those chances.  The Gators meanwhile forced the Bruins of UCLA into one of their worst perimeter shooting efforts of the season.  UCLA hit just 16% from beyond the arc, while posting just a 1.5 assist to turnover ratio.  Offensively, it will be interesting to see if the Gators can get back to hitting threes, especially Scott Wilbekin, who went just 2/8 from distance.  

Arizona(1) vs Wisconsin(2): Arizona had to pull out all the stops to get past the Aztecs.  Every player that logged at least ten minutes besides Gabe York posted an ORtg of at least 109.  Nick Johnson made up for a poor night of shooting (2-12) by being perfect from the free throw line.  The Wildcats were pretty adept getting to the line, getting an attempt on 52% of their field goals.  Arizona continued their strong overall defense, forcing more than twice as many turnovers as assists for San Diego State, and also holding Xavier Thames to just 1-6 shooting from distance.  The Badgers could turn this game into a defensive struggle though after their handling of Baylor, whom Wisconsin allowed just .84 points per possession.  On the inside, Frank Kaminsky got the best of Isaiah Austin, going 8-11, while also blocking six shots.  

NCAAB 2014 Sweet 16: Friday's Games

Table Guide

Column 1) Effective Field Goal Percentage. 2) Turnover Rate. 3) Free Throw Rate. 

4) Offensive Rebound Rate. 5) Defensive Effective Field Goal Percentage. 

6) Defensive Turnover Rate. 7) Defensive Free Throw Rate. 8) Defensive Rebound Rate. 

9) Offensive Rating (Higher is better). 10) Defensive Rating (Lower is better)

Iowa State (3) vs. UConn (7) - Georges Niang will be out of the game, but the Cyclones have done well to fill his spot with the more efficient Naz Long. The high scoring Iowa State attack will score at will, but will have to play solid defense in order to beat the Huskies in a game that is much closer than what the rankings would indicate. Shabazz Napier leads the way for a team that plays total shutdown defense. They should at least keep Iowa State at bay with their 10th ranked DRtg, but will need a more consistent offensive effort for the win.

Louisville (4) vs. Kentucky (8) - These two teams seem to be heading in different directions. Louisville has been shaky in their first two tournament games, but are no doubt the better overall team. Much like last year's national championship squad, Louisville is strong defensively (3rd DRtg) and hasn't missed a beat in that regard in the tournament. They'll look to Luke Hancock, Russ Smith, and Montrezl Harrell to right their offense. Kentucky may have the most raw talent in the entire tournament. Coach Cal seems to have brought it all together at the right time. If they can win the battle on the boards (2nd in ORB%, 90th in DRB%) they may shock the Cardinals.

Virginia (1) vs. Michigan State (4) - Even with their #4 ranking in the region, Michigan State is favored in the game by 2 points. This is due to the fact that the Spartans are peaking at the right moment, are finally completely healthy, and have that championship coaching pedigree. They nearly blew a comfortable lead to Harvard and will have to be sharper to beat a much more dangerous team. Virginia is often overlooked because they aren't flashy. They have in my opinion, the nation's 2nd best defense behind Arizona and also have an array of offensive counter punching options as well. If Malcolm Brogdon and Joe Harris accel offensively, there will be no stopping the Cavaliers.

Michigan (2) vs. Tennessee (11) - The Volunteers have gone from one of the last teams in, to a dangerous Sweet 16 team. It wouldn't shock me if they pulled the upset. In fact, i'll call it right here. Maymon and Stokes will dominate the boards against Michigan who will have to be extremely efficient offensively in order to win. Jordan McRae and Josh Richardson can score from just about anywhere on the floor. The Wolverines hit 3s at an impressive 41% clip. Their defense is lacking however, and will find open looks hard to come by against the Vols.