Matchup: Wisconsin vs. South Carolina
Location: Orlando FL ~ Citrus Bowl Stadium
Line: Wisconsin -1.5. Total 51
Keys Points for Wisconsin
-Wisconsin ranks in the top 12 nationally in all four major defensive
categories – scoring defense (14.8 ppg), total defense (294.0 ypg),
rushing defense (101.3 ypg) and passing defense (192.7 ypg).
-Their defense finds success due to their individual victories in a few defensive categories. They have an excellent 3rd down defense (29.9 percent conversion percentage by
opponents; 26:05 TOP), they keep teams out of the red zone (30 red zone trips
by opponents, tied for seventh nationally) and, when they do penetrate
inside the 20-yard line, keep them out of the end zone (nation’s best
36.7 percent red zone TD percentage).
-The Badgers are led by inside linebacker Chris Borland, the Big Ten
Defensive Player of the Year. Borland (102 tackles) is a major reason
Wisconsin has held five of its 12 opponents without a TD this season
-Joel Stave will have to keep doing what he's been doing all season. Protecting the football along with a strong backfield of Melvin Gordon and James White.
Keys Points for South Carolina
-Connor Shaw is a South Carolina legend, and the Capital One Bowl will mark his final game after going 26-5 as a starter and being part of the reason why this program has completely turned around. The scrambling playmaker will have a tough time making plays against this big front, but he's shown against SEC defenses that he can improvise.
-Mike Davis is finally healthy and eager to reaffirm his
status as one of the top running backs in the SEC after rushing for
1,134 yards in 11 regular season games (103.1 yards per game). In his absence, Shon Carson (256 yards on 60 carries) and Brandon Wilds (205 yards on 40 carries) have performed admirably.
-Jadaveon Clowney is perhaps the nation's most well known player, with the exception of Johnny Manziel. His motivation is the only thing of question at this point.
Prediction: Wisconsin had issues against Taylor Kelly and Braxton Miller, and they'll have issues with Connor Shaw. USC wins a close one.
Tuesday, December 31, 2013
Rose Bowl: Stanford vs. Michigan State
Matchup: Stanford vs. Michigan State
Location: Pasadena, CA ~ Rose Bowl
Line: Stanford -6.5. Total 42.5
Keys to Victory for Stanford
-Kevin Hogan has already won one Rose Bowl and is favored to do so again. He hasn't progressed as much as David Shaw has hoped he would, but he's still the better QB in the game.
-LB Trent Murphy. The second-team All-American wraps up his college career with his 40th consecutive start, and leads the Cardinal’s big-play defense with 14 sacks and 21 1/2 tackles for loss.
-Tyler Gaffney, who sat out last year to play pro baseball, is the RB for Stanford's run-first offense. The senior has rushed for 1,618 yards and 20 touchdowns.
-Expect a key play from wideout Ty Montgomery. The nation's top kickoff returner (31.16 yards per return) has two touchdown returns, and he set up Stanford with short fields on numerous occasions this season.
Keys to Victory for Michigan State
-Jeremy Langford is a powerful runner, but will need his Offensive Line to come up big for him. Jack Allen centers an OL that has protected the QB very well, while enabling Langford to average nearly 5 yards per carry.
-Michigan State will sorely miss captain Max Bullough who has been suspended from the game. The line on the game moved a full point after his suspension was announced. Special teamer Kyler Ellsworth will be thrown into the fire and start in Bullough's place.
-Connor Cook might not be the most exciting of Quarterbacks, but the Sophomore QB has made very few mistakes this year. After passing for 2,423 yards with 20 TDs and just five interceptions, Cook and his offense face an opponent that didn’t allow more than 28 points all year.
-The "No Fly Zone" of Drummond, Lewis, and Dennard might not be tested a whole lot tomorrow, but they'll be tested.
Prediction: It won't be flashy, but Stanford should roll here in a game that will feel as though it was more out of reach than the score would indicate.
Location: Pasadena, CA ~ Rose Bowl
Line: Stanford -6.5. Total 42.5
Keys to Victory for Stanford
-Kevin Hogan has already won one Rose Bowl and is favored to do so again. He hasn't progressed as much as David Shaw has hoped he would, but he's still the better QB in the game.
-LB Trent Murphy. The second-team All-American wraps up his college career with his 40th consecutive start, and leads the Cardinal’s big-play defense with 14 sacks and 21 1/2 tackles for loss.
-Tyler Gaffney, who sat out last year to play pro baseball, is the RB for Stanford's run-first offense. The senior has rushed for 1,618 yards and 20 touchdowns.
-Expect a key play from wideout Ty Montgomery. The nation's top kickoff returner (31.16 yards per return) has two touchdown returns, and he set up Stanford with short fields on numerous occasions this season.
Keys to Victory for Michigan State
-Jeremy Langford is a powerful runner, but will need his Offensive Line to come up big for him. Jack Allen centers an OL that has protected the QB very well, while enabling Langford to average nearly 5 yards per carry.
-Michigan State will sorely miss captain Max Bullough who has been suspended from the game. The line on the game moved a full point after his suspension was announced. Special teamer Kyler Ellsworth will be thrown into the fire and start in Bullough's place.
-Connor Cook might not be the most exciting of Quarterbacks, but the Sophomore QB has made very few mistakes this year. After passing for 2,423 yards with 20 TDs and just five interceptions, Cook and his offense face an opponent that didn’t allow more than 28 points all year.
-The "No Fly Zone" of Drummond, Lewis, and Dennard might not be tested a whole lot tomorrow, but they'll be tested.
Prediction: It won't be flashy, but Stanford should roll here in a game that will feel as though it was more out of reach than the score would indicate.
Monday, December 30, 2013
Sun Bowl: UCLA vs. Virginia Tech
Matchup: UCLA vs. Virginia Tech
Location: El Paso, TX ~ Sun Bowl Stadium
Line: UCLA -7. Total 47.5
Keys to Victory for UCLA
-The Bruins start three freshmen on their offensive line: Scott Quessenberry at left guard, Alex Redmond at right guard and Caleb Benenoch at right tackle. Their performance will likely dictate just how well UCLA QB Brett Hundley moves the ball against the best defense they'll see all year.
-Sophomore QB Brett Hundley has passed for 2,845 yards and 22 TDs, while also having rushed for 587 yards and 9 TDs. A strong performance in this game may elevate his draft status as he's an outside shot at being the first QB taken if he decides to forgo his final 2 college seasons.
-Freshman linebacker Myles Jack (7 rushing TDs, 70 tackles) was named the Pac-12's Freshman Offensive and Defensive Player of the Year. Forgive the play on words, but he's truly a Jack of all Trades.
Keys to Victory for Virginia Tech
-Virginia Tech's 4-2-5 defense features Defensive Ends James Gayle and J.R. Collins and tackles Derrick Hopkins and Luther Maddy, the lone junior among three seniors. The experienced Line should be able to cause plenty of trouble for Hundley.
-It really is all about the defense for the Hokies. Virginia Tech is No. 4 in the nation among FBS teams in total defense, No. 3 in passing defense and No. 8 in rushing defense and points allowed.
-Perhaps their best corners are Kyle Fuller who is a second-team All-American (2 INTs) and his brother, freshman CB Kendall Fuller (6 INTs), who was named ACC Defensive Rookie of the Year.
-QB Logan Thomas seems to have all the tools in the world with his 6'6 245 pound frame. He has 29 career rushing touchdowns and tremendous arm strength. Unfortunately for Va Tech, Thomas has made plenty of questionable decisions and hasn't blossomed into the QB they've hoped he would become.
Prediction: Virginia Tech could certainly pull off an upset due to the fact that their defense is very experienced and should provide fits for a potent, but inexperienced Bruin offense. UCLA certainly has more overall talent, but they'll have to be on top of their game in order to prevent a Hokie victory.
Location: El Paso, TX ~ Sun Bowl Stadium
Line: UCLA -7. Total 47.5
Keys to Victory for UCLA
-The Bruins start three freshmen on their offensive line: Scott Quessenberry at left guard, Alex Redmond at right guard and Caleb Benenoch at right tackle. Their performance will likely dictate just how well UCLA QB Brett Hundley moves the ball against the best defense they'll see all year.
-Sophomore QB Brett Hundley has passed for 2,845 yards and 22 TDs, while also having rushed for 587 yards and 9 TDs. A strong performance in this game may elevate his draft status as he's an outside shot at being the first QB taken if he decides to forgo his final 2 college seasons.
-Freshman linebacker Myles Jack (7 rushing TDs, 70 tackles) was named the Pac-12's Freshman Offensive and Defensive Player of the Year. Forgive the play on words, but he's truly a Jack of all Trades.
Keys to Victory for Virginia Tech
-Virginia Tech's 4-2-5 defense features Defensive Ends James Gayle and J.R. Collins and tackles Derrick Hopkins and Luther Maddy, the lone junior among three seniors. The experienced Line should be able to cause plenty of trouble for Hundley.
-It really is all about the defense for the Hokies. Virginia Tech is No. 4 in the nation among FBS teams in total defense, No. 3 in passing defense and No. 8 in rushing defense and points allowed.
-Perhaps their best corners are Kyle Fuller who is a second-team All-American (2 INTs) and his brother, freshman CB Kendall Fuller (6 INTs), who was named ACC Defensive Rookie of the Year.
-QB Logan Thomas seems to have all the tools in the world with his 6'6 245 pound frame. He has 29 career rushing touchdowns and tremendous arm strength. Unfortunately for Va Tech, Thomas has made plenty of questionable decisions and hasn't blossomed into the QB they've hoped he would become.
Prediction: Virginia Tech could certainly pull off an upset due to the fact that their defense is very experienced and should provide fits for a potent, but inexperienced Bruin offense. UCLA certainly has more overall talent, but they'll have to be on top of their game in order to prevent a Hokie victory.
Tostitos Fiesta Bowl: Central Florida vs Baylor
If not for an ill fated night in Stillwater, Baylor likely would have been playing in the National Title game instead of the Fiesta Bowl this season. A pair of offensive miscues at the goal line forced that, but Baylor was able to capture a Big 12 title. That game against OSU was the sole time this season they failed to score 30 points, and just one of three times they had a negative turnover margin. The Knights of Central Florida were able to crash into the BCS by upsetting Louisville and losing just n the last second to South Carolina. They're lead by possible top five pick Blake Bortles, a junior that took huge strides this season.
The Bears offense this year was basically unstoppable this year. They averaged 53.3 points per game, and well over 500 yards per game. The spread attack was orchestrated by Bryce Petty, who this season completed 61.8% of his passes for 10.8 yards per attempt with 30 touchdowns and threw just a pair of interceptions. He however struggled down the stretch, completing just 53.8% of his passes in November, and averaged 7.7 yards per attempt. He did only throw one interception in that span, but the sharp decline in numbers is a cause for concern. He did lose one of his top wideouts during that stretch in Tevin Reese, a player who averaged a ridiculous 25 yards per catch, who will be back and should be fully healthy for this bowl game. In Reese's absence, Antwan Goodley became the go to target, averaging his own ridiculous average of 19.7 yards per reception. Goodley had 28 receptions of more than 15 yards, and went 17-19 on converting his third down receptions. The gawdy stats for the passing game though were set up by the run game, which went through three very good backs. The three headed monster of Lache Seastrunk, Shock Linwood and Glasco Martin gave fits to just about every defense they faced, as the run game averaged 5.4 yards per carry and had 101 runs of more than ten yards. They converted nearly 60% of their third and short runs, and picked up a healthy 3.7 yards per carry in the redzone with 33 touchdowns. The offensive line was a wall most of the season, allowing just a 10.2% pressure rate and a tackle for loss on just 6.3% of their plays.
Blake Bortles has moved up draft boards this season to possibly being the top QB taken in April if he declares. He'll want to go out on a high not for a season that has been pretty stellar after he completed 68.1% of his passes for 9.3 yards per attempt. He hit 74 passes of more than fifteen yards, and completed more than 65% of his passes in the maroon zone. The man he went to for the big plays was Breshad Perriman, a sophomore wideout that averaged 21.2 yards per catch and scored three times. Rannell Hall lead the team with 53 receptions, and averaged 14.6 yards per catch, while JJ Worton was the redzone target with 7 touchdowns on his 42 catches, with a 15.8 yards per catch mark. The run game went through Storm Johnson, a 215 pound back that averaged 5.3 yards per carry and scored eleven times en route to a 1000 yard season. He went 9-13 in third and short situations, and had 28 runs of more than ten yards.
Johnson wasnt able t find the endzone very often the last two months after scoring 7 times in August and September.
The Baylor defense got after teams just as much as the offense, recording a tackle for loss rate of 10.4%, and allowing just 4.5 yards per play. Eddie Lackey lead the team with 97 tackles, 13 of them for loss and added seven QB hurries to go with a pair of interceptions. His play, along with DE Shawn Oakman who had 10 tackle for loss against the run game lead to teams averaging just 3.3 yards per carry. They harassed opposing passers as well, pressuring them on 20.5% of their pass attempts this season. Thanks to that, QBs were able to only complete 46.9% of their passes and averaged just 6.1 yards per attempt. The passing game only converted 28.4% of their third downs, with Demtri Goodson defending 13 passes and KJ Morton another 10. Morton had three interceptions as well to pace the team.
The Knights defense allowed 5.2 yards per play, and just 19.6 points per game. They also were able to stop teams once they got to the redzone, allowing just a 71.9% conversion rate for teams. UCF recorded 77 tackles for loss this season, lead by Terrance Plummer. The linebacker posted 96 tackles while also breaking up six passes. Thats far below Jacoby Glenn though, the defensive back that defended fifteen passes and intercepted a pair of passes. That play helped keep opposing aerial attacks to just 6.4 yards per play and only eleven touchdowns. The run defense was very good down the stretch, keep their last three opponents to sub 100 yard games. South Carolina, Penn State, and Losuiville did however each run for over 100 yards and more than 4 yards per carry with multiple touchdowns each.
Baylor tripped over themselves in Stillwater against a very good OK State team, otherwise they would haven ended the year undefeated. They should be able to beat the Knights handily, but if they have any miscues it will not be by the 17.5 points theyre favored by.
The Bears offense this year was basically unstoppable this year. They averaged 53.3 points per game, and well over 500 yards per game. The spread attack was orchestrated by Bryce Petty, who this season completed 61.8% of his passes for 10.8 yards per attempt with 30 touchdowns and threw just a pair of interceptions. He however struggled down the stretch, completing just 53.8% of his passes in November, and averaged 7.7 yards per attempt. He did only throw one interception in that span, but the sharp decline in numbers is a cause for concern. He did lose one of his top wideouts during that stretch in Tevin Reese, a player who averaged a ridiculous 25 yards per catch, who will be back and should be fully healthy for this bowl game. In Reese's absence, Antwan Goodley became the go to target, averaging his own ridiculous average of 19.7 yards per reception. Goodley had 28 receptions of more than 15 yards, and went 17-19 on converting his third down receptions. The gawdy stats for the passing game though were set up by the run game, which went through three very good backs. The three headed monster of Lache Seastrunk, Shock Linwood and Glasco Martin gave fits to just about every defense they faced, as the run game averaged 5.4 yards per carry and had 101 runs of more than ten yards. They converted nearly 60% of their third and short runs, and picked up a healthy 3.7 yards per carry in the redzone with 33 touchdowns. The offensive line was a wall most of the season, allowing just a 10.2% pressure rate and a tackle for loss on just 6.3% of their plays.
Blake Bortles has moved up draft boards this season to possibly being the top QB taken in April if he declares. He'll want to go out on a high not for a season that has been pretty stellar after he completed 68.1% of his passes for 9.3 yards per attempt. He hit 74 passes of more than fifteen yards, and completed more than 65% of his passes in the maroon zone. The man he went to for the big plays was Breshad Perriman, a sophomore wideout that averaged 21.2 yards per catch and scored three times. Rannell Hall lead the team with 53 receptions, and averaged 14.6 yards per catch, while JJ Worton was the redzone target with 7 touchdowns on his 42 catches, with a 15.8 yards per catch mark. The run game went through Storm Johnson, a 215 pound back that averaged 5.3 yards per carry and scored eleven times en route to a 1000 yard season. He went 9-13 in third and short situations, and had 28 runs of more than ten yards.
Johnson wasnt able t find the endzone very often the last two months after scoring 7 times in August and September.
The Baylor defense got after teams just as much as the offense, recording a tackle for loss rate of 10.4%, and allowing just 4.5 yards per play. Eddie Lackey lead the team with 97 tackles, 13 of them for loss and added seven QB hurries to go with a pair of interceptions. His play, along with DE Shawn Oakman who had 10 tackle for loss against the run game lead to teams averaging just 3.3 yards per carry. They harassed opposing passers as well, pressuring them on 20.5% of their pass attempts this season. Thanks to that, QBs were able to only complete 46.9% of their passes and averaged just 6.1 yards per attempt. The passing game only converted 28.4% of their third downs, with Demtri Goodson defending 13 passes and KJ Morton another 10. Morton had three interceptions as well to pace the team.
The Knights defense allowed 5.2 yards per play, and just 19.6 points per game. They also were able to stop teams once they got to the redzone, allowing just a 71.9% conversion rate for teams. UCF recorded 77 tackles for loss this season, lead by Terrance Plummer. The linebacker posted 96 tackles while also breaking up six passes. Thats far below Jacoby Glenn though, the defensive back that defended fifteen passes and intercepted a pair of passes. That play helped keep opposing aerial attacks to just 6.4 yards per play and only eleven touchdowns. The run defense was very good down the stretch, keep their last three opponents to sub 100 yard games. South Carolina, Penn State, and Losuiville did however each run for over 100 yards and more than 4 yards per carry with multiple touchdowns each.
Baylor tripped over themselves in Stillwater against a very good OK State team, otherwise they would haven ended the year undefeated. They should be able to beat the Knights handily, but if they have any miscues it will not be by the 17.5 points theyre favored by.
Outback Bowl: Iowa vs LSU
The Iowa Hawkeyes were able to get to an 8-4 record largely because of their dominance on the road, where their only loss came to Ohio State. They averaged just 27 points a game, but scored at leats 20 points in all but three matchups. The LSu Tigers were a prolific offens,e but an ACL tear sustained by Zach Mettenberger will likely put a damper on the unit that averaged 37 points a game while churning up 465.9 yards. It'll be on Freshman Anthony Jennings to make the big plays and keep the offense on schedule.
Jake Rudock took most of the snaps for the Hawkeyes this year, completing 60.2% of his passes for seven yards per attempt with 18 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. The sophomore signal caller struggled mightily in the fourth quarter of games, averaging just 5.4 yards per attempt. completing only 58% of his passes and throwing six interceptions with just a single touchdown. The Hawkeyes didnt have any single receiver that was much of a threat to break a big play, besides Damond Powell who averaged 24.3 yards per catch. Iowa's offensive line will likely be tested against the Tigers, but they did allow pressure on just 9.2% of their pass attempts this year. The rushing attack was solid enough, lead by Mark Weisman who carried it 208 times and played in all 12 games. He averaged 4.5 yards per carry, and converted 72.2% of his third down carries with less than three yards to convert. Jordan Canzeri might get a few carries, and has teh ability to break a long one after posting 15 of his 67 carries this season for more than 10 yards.
Everything we know about the LSU's passing attack can likely be tossed out at this point, with Anthony Jennings making his first start. He will at least have two of the best receivers in the nation to throw to in Jarvis Landry and ODell Beckham Jr. Beckham Jr. might be the most dangerous deep threat in college football, with 36 receptions of more than 15 yards on his 57 receptions, and he converted 13 of his 14 third down receptions. Jarvis Landry had 59 first down receptions, to go with 34 catches of more than 15 yards. He'll also have a running game that features a pair of backs that each averaged better than six yards per carry. Jeremy Hill averaged 6.8 yards per run, and found the end zone 14 times. Terrence Magee picked up 7.8 every time he ran it, and the team overall had 16.5% of their runs go for over ten yards. The aforementioned backs did combine for just 21 carries a game, which is likely to see a bump this week
The Bayou Bengals defense suffered from attrition this seaosn, with so many players headed to the NFL. They did however contain the passing game of their foes, allowing just a 57.1% completion rate for only 6.5 yards per attempt. The secondary only forced nine turnovers though despite a 14.9% pressure rate from the pass rush. Jermauria Rasco was the bets pass rusher the team had, with 4 sacks to lead the team but another eight hurries. He also had 52 tackles, good for 8th on the team. Lamin Barrow lead the team with 86 stops, 4.5 of them for loss. They did struggle a little against the run, allowing 4.1 yards per carry, posting just a 7.1% tackle for loss rate.
The Hawkeyes only allowed 4.6 yards per play on defense, while stifling opponents for just 18.8 points per game. They did it by stopping the run first, allowing only 3.5 yards per carry. They were especially tough through November, allowing only three yards a carry and just three touchdowns on the ground. They posted a tackle for loss on 9.2% of their defensive snaps, with 27.5 of them coming from line backers James Morris and Anthony Hitchens. The pair combined for 200 stops on the season, with Christian Kirksey adding another 97 tackles. The secondary shut down passers as well, allowing only a 5.8 yards per attempt mark with only 56% completion rate. Only 11.7% of those passes went for more than 15 yards, and BJ Lowery was able to break up 16 passes this season.
LSU without Mettenberger is still a very dangerous team. They should be able to shut down The Hawkeyes offense for the most part, and pull away in the end.
Jake Rudock took most of the snaps for the Hawkeyes this year, completing 60.2% of his passes for seven yards per attempt with 18 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. The sophomore signal caller struggled mightily in the fourth quarter of games, averaging just 5.4 yards per attempt. completing only 58% of his passes and throwing six interceptions with just a single touchdown. The Hawkeyes didnt have any single receiver that was much of a threat to break a big play, besides Damond Powell who averaged 24.3 yards per catch. Iowa's offensive line will likely be tested against the Tigers, but they did allow pressure on just 9.2% of their pass attempts this year. The rushing attack was solid enough, lead by Mark Weisman who carried it 208 times and played in all 12 games. He averaged 4.5 yards per carry, and converted 72.2% of his third down carries with less than three yards to convert. Jordan Canzeri might get a few carries, and has teh ability to break a long one after posting 15 of his 67 carries this season for more than 10 yards.
Everything we know about the LSU's passing attack can likely be tossed out at this point, with Anthony Jennings making his first start. He will at least have two of the best receivers in the nation to throw to in Jarvis Landry and ODell Beckham Jr. Beckham Jr. might be the most dangerous deep threat in college football, with 36 receptions of more than 15 yards on his 57 receptions, and he converted 13 of his 14 third down receptions. Jarvis Landry had 59 first down receptions, to go with 34 catches of more than 15 yards. He'll also have a running game that features a pair of backs that each averaged better than six yards per carry. Jeremy Hill averaged 6.8 yards per run, and found the end zone 14 times. Terrence Magee picked up 7.8 every time he ran it, and the team overall had 16.5% of their runs go for over ten yards. The aforementioned backs did combine for just 21 carries a game, which is likely to see a bump this week
The Bayou Bengals defense suffered from attrition this seaosn, with so many players headed to the NFL. They did however contain the passing game of their foes, allowing just a 57.1% completion rate for only 6.5 yards per attempt. The secondary only forced nine turnovers though despite a 14.9% pressure rate from the pass rush. Jermauria Rasco was the bets pass rusher the team had, with 4 sacks to lead the team but another eight hurries. He also had 52 tackles, good for 8th on the team. Lamin Barrow lead the team with 86 stops, 4.5 of them for loss. They did struggle a little against the run, allowing 4.1 yards per carry, posting just a 7.1% tackle for loss rate.
The Hawkeyes only allowed 4.6 yards per play on defense, while stifling opponents for just 18.8 points per game. They did it by stopping the run first, allowing only 3.5 yards per carry. They were especially tough through November, allowing only three yards a carry and just three touchdowns on the ground. They posted a tackle for loss on 9.2% of their defensive snaps, with 27.5 of them coming from line backers James Morris and Anthony Hitchens. The pair combined for 200 stops on the season, with Christian Kirksey adding another 97 tackles. The secondary shut down passers as well, allowing only a 5.8 yards per attempt mark with only 56% completion rate. Only 11.7% of those passes went for more than 15 yards, and BJ Lowery was able to break up 16 passes this season.
LSU without Mettenberger is still a very dangerous team. They should be able to shut down The Hawkeyes offense for the most part, and pull away in the end.
Sunday, December 29, 2013
Holiday Bowl: Arizona State vs. Texas Tech
Matchup: Arizona State vs. Texas Tech
Location: San Diego, CA
Line: Arizona State -14, Total 72
Keys to Victory for Arizona State
-Taylor Kelly is one of the best spread offense QBs in the nation. He fits perfectly into Todd Graham's system and will undoubtedly light up the scoreboard through both the air and the ground.
-Marion Grice has been ruled out for the game. Grice was arguably the best Pac 12 running back in the action that he saw and the offense was clearly affected by his absence in games that he missed or was injured in.
-Sun Devils defensive tackle Will Sutton. A consensus All-America in 2012, the 6-foot-1, 288-pound lineman fell off the radar a bit due to a slow start this fall. His production dipped as opponents regularly double-teamed him, but he still finished the regular season with 11.5 tackles for loss.
Keys to Victory for Texas Tech
-Baker Mayfield is out due to "disagreements and miscommunications." In his place the Red Raiders will go with either fellow freshman Davis Webb, who started five games, or sophomore Michael Brewer
-Red Raiders are second in the nation with 392 passing yards per game. Their biggest and best target is All-American tight end Jace Amaro who comes in with 98 catches for 1,240 yards.
-A big concern for Tech is the fact that their defense has given up an average of 504 yards per game in their final five games, so slowing down ASU will be a concern for Coach Kingsbury.
Location: San Diego, CA
Line: Arizona State -14, Total 72
Keys to Victory for Arizona State
-Taylor Kelly is one of the best spread offense QBs in the nation. He fits perfectly into Todd Graham's system and will undoubtedly light up the scoreboard through both the air and the ground.
-Marion Grice has been ruled out for the game. Grice was arguably the best Pac 12 running back in the action that he saw and the offense was clearly affected by his absence in games that he missed or was injured in.
-Sun Devils defensive tackle Will Sutton. A consensus All-America in 2012, the 6-foot-1, 288-pound lineman fell off the radar a bit due to a slow start this fall. His production dipped as opponents regularly double-teamed him, but he still finished the regular season with 11.5 tackles for loss.
Keys to Victory for Texas Tech
-Baker Mayfield is out due to "disagreements and miscommunications." In his place the Red Raiders will go with either fellow freshman Davis Webb, who started five games, or sophomore Michael Brewer
-Red Raiders are second in the nation with 392 passing yards per game. Their biggest and best target is All-American tight end Jace Amaro who comes in with 98 catches for 1,240 yards.
-A big concern for Tech is the fact that their defense has given up an average of 504 yards per game in their final five games, so slowing down ASU will be a concern for Coach Kingsbury.
Chris
Milton, Louis Young, Tyler Marcordes and Quayshawn Nealy - See more at:
http://athlonsports.com/college-football/music-city-bowl-preview-and-prediction-ole-miss-vs-georgia-tech#sthash.KCcpeF7g.dpuf
Chris
Milton, Louis Young, Tyler Marcordes and Quayshawn Nealy - See more at:
http://athlonsports.com/college-football/music-city-bowl-preview-and-prediction-ole-miss-vs-georgia-tech#sthash.KCcpeF7g.dpuf
Chris
Milton, Louis Young, Tyler Marcordes and Quayshawn Nealy - See more at:
http://athlonsports.com/college-football/music-city-bowl-preview-and-prediction-ole-miss-vs-georgia-tech#sthash.KCcpeF7g.dpuf
Music City Bowl: Georgia Tech vs. Mississippi
Matchup: Georgia Tech vs. Mississippi
Location: Nashville, TN ~ LP Field
Line: Mississippi -3. Total 56
Keys to Victory for Ga Tech
-Georgia Tech has the 5th ranked running game in the nation. They averaged over 310 yards per game while averaging 5.6 yards per carry and 45 yards on the ground. QB Vad Lee runs the option very well and has David Sims, Robert Godhigh, and Zach Laskey to rely on as excellent backs in their system.
-Ga Tech has a turnover margin of -3 in the nation. Most of their turnovers have been through the air though as they have 13 INTs to just 11 Passing TDs. As far as fumbles go, they only have 6 on the season.
-The Yellow Jackets have a formidable secondary. Chris Milton, Louis Young, Tyler Marcodes, and Quayshawn Nealy all have 2 interceptions each.
-Pass rusher Jeremiah Attaochu had 15.5 tackles for loss and 12 sacks.
Keys to Victory for Ole Miss
-The rush defense is obviously going to have to show up this weekend against the best running game they've seen all season. They've allowed 155 yards per game which was good for 58th in the nation. In 4 of their 5 losses, they allowed over 240 yards rushing which of course doesn't bode well for them.
-Bo Wallace has been very inconsistent this season. In their victories, Wallace only turned the ball over twice. He has nine turnovers in their 5 losses. The junior would like to use this game as a springboard to what could be a breakthrough senior season next year.
-Robert Nkemdiche is already one of the best DLs in the nation. The future NFLer has had an injury filled season, but should be a huge asset against Ga Tech.
Prediction: Ole Miss is going to have to put points on the board early in order for them to force Georgia Tech to move the ball through the air. Something they aren't very efficient at. I believe they have the weapons to do so, but I wouldn't actually put any money on this game.
Location: Nashville, TN ~ LP Field
Line: Mississippi -3. Total 56
Keys to Victory for Ga Tech
-Georgia Tech has the 5th ranked running game in the nation. They averaged over 310 yards per game while averaging 5.6 yards per carry and 45 yards on the ground. QB Vad Lee runs the option very well and has David Sims, Robert Godhigh, and Zach Laskey to rely on as excellent backs in their system.
-Ga Tech has a turnover margin of -3 in the nation. Most of their turnovers have been through the air though as they have 13 INTs to just 11 Passing TDs. As far as fumbles go, they only have 6 on the season.
-The Yellow Jackets have a formidable secondary. Chris Milton, Louis Young, Tyler Marcodes, and Quayshawn Nealy all have 2 interceptions each.
-Pass rusher Jeremiah Attaochu had 15.5 tackles for loss and 12 sacks.
Keys to Victory for Ole Miss
-The rush defense is obviously going to have to show up this weekend against the best running game they've seen all season. They've allowed 155 yards per game which was good for 58th in the nation. In 4 of their 5 losses, they allowed over 240 yards rushing which of course doesn't bode well for them.
-Bo Wallace has been very inconsistent this season. In their victories, Wallace only turned the ball over twice. He has nine turnovers in their 5 losses. The junior would like to use this game as a springboard to what could be a breakthrough senior season next year.
-Robert Nkemdiche is already one of the best DLs in the nation. The future NFLer has had an injury filled season, but should be a huge asset against Ga Tech.
Prediction: Ole Miss is going to have to put points on the board early in order for them to force Georgia Tech to move the ball through the air. Something they aren't very efficient at. I believe they have the weapons to do so, but I wouldn't actually put any money on this game.
Heart of Dallas Bowl: UNLV vs North Texas
UNLV and North Texas will square off in the Heart of Dallas bowl, with both teams already guaranteed to their first winning season in the last seven seasons. Both teams featured offenses that could score, averaging over 31 points a game. They were within a tenth of a yard in yards per play attempt. the Mean Green edging out the Rebels 5.6 to 5.5 yards per play on offense.
UNLV can look to Caleb herring for the improved offensive output, as the senior signal caller completed 64.3% of his passes for 6.9 yards per attempt. He also limited turnovers, tossing just four interceptions while throwing for 22 touchdowns. He did struggle on third downs, completing only 56.7% of his passes, but played well when the games were close, averaging 8.1 yards per attempt and completing 65.5% of his passes. The receivers werent able to make a lot of plays after the catch, earning just 10.5 yards per catch. Devante Davis though is a big threat, leading the team with 77 catches and 1194 yards and hauling in 14 touchdown receptions. Davis went 11-13 on third down catches, and had 23 receptions of more than 15 yards. The run game was paced by Tim Cornett, who had four 100 yard games while averaging 5 yards per carry. He also found the endzone 15 times, and converted 10 of hsi 14 third and short carries. Shaquille Murray-Lawrence is a big play threat, totaling 418 yards on just 47 carries this season. The offensive line was good all around, allowing just a 5.6% pressure rate to go with the solid run game.
The Mean Green had Derek Thompson throwing it around for them, completing 63.9% of his passes for 7.3 yards per attempt. He was not nearly as careful with the football though, throwing 13 interceptions to just 14 touchdowns. Most of those turnovers came when the game was tight as well, with 10 picks to just 5 touchdowns when the game was within 7 points. Brellan Chancellor averaged 15.3 yards per catch for North Texas with his 47 receptions. Darnell Smith though came just two yards shy of leading the team in both catches and yards, averaging just 11 yard per catch. The run game went to Brandin Byrd and Antoinne Jimmerson, the pair picking up 1451 yards and 17 touchdowns. The pair combined to convert over half of their third and short carries as well. The offense overall picked up 30.8 yards per drive, and went three and out on just 19.5% of their drives.
The UNLV defense could not stop the run at all. They allowed 5.2 yards per carry, and held only San Diego State to under 100 yards rushing while allowing 6 games of more than 200 yards on the ground. It wasnt big plays that did them in, just a steady stream of five and six yard runs. They recorded a tackle for a loss on just 7.5% of their plays, lead by Tani Maka who had a team high 6.5. He was also the leading tackler in the front seven, with 87 stops. The secondary was the best unit, allowing just a 51.5% completion rate and just 6.5 yards per attempt. They defended 13.5% of the passes against them, with Frank Crawford picking off four passes. They did this despite generate pressure on just 5% of opponents' dropbacks.
North Texas was lead by Zach Orr on defense, who totaled 113 stops, 11 of them for loss. Overall the team had just an 8.8% tackle for loss rate, allowing just 3.8 yards per carry in the running game. They did give up several big plays, allowing 54 runs of 10 yards or more. But in the redzone they allowed just 1.1 yards per carry, and only ten rushing touchdowns all season. They did a good job getting after opposing passers, pressuring on 14.4% of their dropbacks, paced by 7.5 sacks from Aaron Bellazin. This pressure helped North Texas get 17 interceptions, and a sub 60% completion rate from opposing passers.
North Texas has a solid enough run game to find pace against the porous Rebels run defense. They also have a defense that is steady enough to keep the UNLV passing attack in check. Take UNT -6.5.
UNLV can look to Caleb herring for the improved offensive output, as the senior signal caller completed 64.3% of his passes for 6.9 yards per attempt. He also limited turnovers, tossing just four interceptions while throwing for 22 touchdowns. He did struggle on third downs, completing only 56.7% of his passes, but played well when the games were close, averaging 8.1 yards per attempt and completing 65.5% of his passes. The receivers werent able to make a lot of plays after the catch, earning just 10.5 yards per catch. Devante Davis though is a big threat, leading the team with 77 catches and 1194 yards and hauling in 14 touchdown receptions. Davis went 11-13 on third down catches, and had 23 receptions of more than 15 yards. The run game was paced by Tim Cornett, who had four 100 yard games while averaging 5 yards per carry. He also found the endzone 15 times, and converted 10 of hsi 14 third and short carries. Shaquille Murray-Lawrence is a big play threat, totaling 418 yards on just 47 carries this season. The offensive line was good all around, allowing just a 5.6% pressure rate to go with the solid run game.
The Mean Green had Derek Thompson throwing it around for them, completing 63.9% of his passes for 7.3 yards per attempt. He was not nearly as careful with the football though, throwing 13 interceptions to just 14 touchdowns. Most of those turnovers came when the game was tight as well, with 10 picks to just 5 touchdowns when the game was within 7 points. Brellan Chancellor averaged 15.3 yards per catch for North Texas with his 47 receptions. Darnell Smith though came just two yards shy of leading the team in both catches and yards, averaging just 11 yard per catch. The run game went to Brandin Byrd and Antoinne Jimmerson, the pair picking up 1451 yards and 17 touchdowns. The pair combined to convert over half of their third and short carries as well. The offense overall picked up 30.8 yards per drive, and went three and out on just 19.5% of their drives.
The UNLV defense could not stop the run at all. They allowed 5.2 yards per carry, and held only San Diego State to under 100 yards rushing while allowing 6 games of more than 200 yards on the ground. It wasnt big plays that did them in, just a steady stream of five and six yard runs. They recorded a tackle for a loss on just 7.5% of their plays, lead by Tani Maka who had a team high 6.5. He was also the leading tackler in the front seven, with 87 stops. The secondary was the best unit, allowing just a 51.5% completion rate and just 6.5 yards per attempt. They defended 13.5% of the passes against them, with Frank Crawford picking off four passes. They did this despite generate pressure on just 5% of opponents' dropbacks.
North Texas was lead by Zach Orr on defense, who totaled 113 stops, 11 of them for loss. Overall the team had just an 8.8% tackle for loss rate, allowing just 3.8 yards per carry in the running game. They did give up several big plays, allowing 54 runs of 10 yards or more. But in the redzone they allowed just 1.1 yards per carry, and only ten rushing touchdowns all season. They did a good job getting after opposing passers, pressuring on 14.4% of their dropbacks, paced by 7.5 sacks from Aaron Bellazin. This pressure helped North Texas get 17 interceptions, and a sub 60% completion rate from opposing passers.
North Texas has a solid enough run game to find pace against the porous Rebels run defense. They also have a defense that is steady enough to keep the UNLV passing attack in check. Take UNT -6.5.
Chick Fil A Bowl: Texas A&M vs Duke
Duke was easily the most surprising team this season. The Blue Devils were looked at as a team that had exceeded expectations last year, and would be at best a bowl eligible team this year, and more likely to return to the basement of the ACC. Instead, they pulled off win after win, using a [pair of QBs all season to reach 10 wins and the ACC championship game. Texas A&M had to feel disappointed losing four games this year after just a pair of losses last year, and missing out on a BCS bowl berth. It was the defense that did them in, allowing 30.9 points per game
Texas A&M's offense is headlined by the ultimate love or hate QB Johnny Manziel. Manziel actually followed up his Heisman campaign with a better performance as a redshirt sophomore, completing 69.1% of his passes for 9.5 yards per attempt and 33 touchdowns to just 13 interceptions. A full 23% of his passes went for more than fifteen yards, and he converted 54% of his third down attempts (up from 51.8% the previous season). Its no surprise that his performance took another step forward with the emergence of Mike Evans as a go to receiver. Evans averaged 20.3 yards per catch on his 65 receptions. The 225 pound wideout went ten for 12 on his third down catches, and averaged 17 yards per catch inside the maroon zone. It also helps that the offensive line allowed pressure on just 10% of the team's dropbacks, keeping the QB clean. Manziel was also the team's best runner, averaging 5.2 yards per carry and scoring 8 times. The main back taking hand offs was Ben Malena, a senior who averaged 4.7 yards per carry and gained 506 yards. Malena was very good in the maroon zone, averaging 5.4 yards per carry and scored all ten of his touchdowns from inside the opponents 20. Overall, it meant the Aggies used their possession efficiently, going three and out just 16% of the time, and scoring on over half of their drives.
The Blue Devils had a pair of QBs take snaps this season, with Anthony Boone starting most games but Brandon Connette taking several series a game. The pair combined to complete 63% of their passes for 7.1 yards per attempt, while tossing 23 touchdowns, but also throwing 17 interceptions. The passing game only converted 33.9% of its third down attempts. The main reciepient of the efforts in the game was Jamison Crowder, the junior wideout who hauled in 96 receptions for Duke. He averaged just 12.5 yards per catch, but did have 50% of his receptions reuslt in a first down. The offensive line had done its part, allowing a pressure on just 8.8% of the team's dropbacks. The team's running game was lead by Jela Duncan and Josh Snead. Duncan averaged 5 yards per carry and scored three times, carrying the ball for an average of 4.4 yards per attempt in the redzone. Snead didnt have a lot of big runs (14 of ten or more on 90 attempts), but he consistently churned up yards averaging 6.1 yards per carry.
The Aggies defense was downright brutal. Only twice this season did they keep opponents to fewer than 20 points, and they allowed fewer than five yards per play just twice as well. Steven Jenkins and Darian Claiborne each had 89 tackles to pace the team, but the Aggies had a tackle for loss on just 7.1% of their defensive snaps. This lead to running games scoring 20 times against them, and averaging 5.3 yards per carry. Devante Harris and Tramain Jacobs lead the secondary with eight passes defensed each. Overall the pass defense was just average, allowing 7.1 yards per attempt but a completion rate of just 56.5%. The Blue Devils on the other hand were much more boom or bust in the passing game. They allowed 21 passing touchdown, but intercepted 18 passes and defensed 56 passes. Breon Borders and Jeremy Cash each had four interceptions, and combined for 12 passes defended. Kenny Anunike was the best player for the front seven, totaling 13.5 tackles for loss amongst his 66 tackles.
Duke right now is a 12 point underdog to A&M and the total sits at 75. This is a tough one to call, because Duke won games they shouldnt have and actually played very well against FSU until the Noles pulled away. But the offense has enough question marks about whether or not they can keep up with the Aggies if Manziel can create some big plays. The under is the more likely scenario, because of that struggling Duke offense and a defense that should at least slow down A&M.
Texas A&M's offense is headlined by the ultimate love or hate QB Johnny Manziel. Manziel actually followed up his Heisman campaign with a better performance as a redshirt sophomore, completing 69.1% of his passes for 9.5 yards per attempt and 33 touchdowns to just 13 interceptions. A full 23% of his passes went for more than fifteen yards, and he converted 54% of his third down attempts (up from 51.8% the previous season). Its no surprise that his performance took another step forward with the emergence of Mike Evans as a go to receiver. Evans averaged 20.3 yards per catch on his 65 receptions. The 225 pound wideout went ten for 12 on his third down catches, and averaged 17 yards per catch inside the maroon zone. It also helps that the offensive line allowed pressure on just 10% of the team's dropbacks, keeping the QB clean. Manziel was also the team's best runner, averaging 5.2 yards per carry and scoring 8 times. The main back taking hand offs was Ben Malena, a senior who averaged 4.7 yards per carry and gained 506 yards. Malena was very good in the maroon zone, averaging 5.4 yards per carry and scored all ten of his touchdowns from inside the opponents 20. Overall, it meant the Aggies used their possession efficiently, going three and out just 16% of the time, and scoring on over half of their drives.
The Blue Devils had a pair of QBs take snaps this season, with Anthony Boone starting most games but Brandon Connette taking several series a game. The pair combined to complete 63% of their passes for 7.1 yards per attempt, while tossing 23 touchdowns, but also throwing 17 interceptions. The passing game only converted 33.9% of its third down attempts. The main reciepient of the efforts in the game was Jamison Crowder, the junior wideout who hauled in 96 receptions for Duke. He averaged just 12.5 yards per catch, but did have 50% of his receptions reuslt in a first down. The offensive line had done its part, allowing a pressure on just 8.8% of the team's dropbacks. The team's running game was lead by Jela Duncan and Josh Snead. Duncan averaged 5 yards per carry and scored three times, carrying the ball for an average of 4.4 yards per attempt in the redzone. Snead didnt have a lot of big runs (14 of ten or more on 90 attempts), but he consistently churned up yards averaging 6.1 yards per carry.
The Aggies defense was downright brutal. Only twice this season did they keep opponents to fewer than 20 points, and they allowed fewer than five yards per play just twice as well. Steven Jenkins and Darian Claiborne each had 89 tackles to pace the team, but the Aggies had a tackle for loss on just 7.1% of their defensive snaps. This lead to running games scoring 20 times against them, and averaging 5.3 yards per carry. Devante Harris and Tramain Jacobs lead the secondary with eight passes defensed each. Overall the pass defense was just average, allowing 7.1 yards per attempt but a completion rate of just 56.5%. The Blue Devils on the other hand were much more boom or bust in the passing game. They allowed 21 passing touchdown, but intercepted 18 passes and defensed 56 passes. Breon Borders and Jeremy Cash each had four interceptions, and combined for 12 passes defended. Kenny Anunike was the best player for the front seven, totaling 13.5 tackles for loss amongst his 66 tackles.
Duke right now is a 12 point underdog to A&M and the total sits at 75. This is a tough one to call, because Duke won games they shouldnt have and actually played very well against FSU until the Noles pulled away. But the offense has enough question marks about whether or not they can keep up with the Aggies if Manziel can create some big plays. The under is the more likely scenario, because of that struggling Duke offense and a defense that should at least slow down A&M.
Armed Forces Bowl: Navy vs. Middle Tennessee State
Matchup: Navy vs. Middle Tennessee State
Location: Fort Worth, TX
Line: Navy -6.5. Total 56.5
Keys to Victory for Navy
-Both teams are evenly matched in terms of moving the ball on the ground. Navy famously has the triple option method in doing so and will need Keenan Reynolds to continue his strong season and limit any turnovers. The Midshipmen are second in the nation averaging 322 yards rushing per game. Reynolds has 29 rushing TDs already this season which is a record for an FBS QB in a single seaosn.
-Navy has only turned the ball over 8 times this year which is a surprising mark for a team that runs the triple option. They're truly masters of their trade.
-Senior LBs Cody Peterson and D.J. Sargenti, the top two tacklers for the Midshipmen. Peterson has 135 tackles, and Sargenti 103.
Keys to Victory for Middle Tennessee St.
-The Blue Raiders aren't slouches themselves running the ball. They've averaged 208.3 yards rushing per game which is good for 25th in the nation. Jordan Parker and Reggie Whatley have split time carrying the ball this season and have been very steady in doing so. Both are legitimate threats in keeping drives going.
-One key difference between the two teams is that Logan Kilgore can actually move the ball through the air. Middle Tennessee State finished the regular season with a 5 game win streak, thanks in large part to a 10 TD 3 INT streak by Kilgore to finish the year.
-Turnovers, or lack thereof, will play a huge role in this game and Middle Tennessee will have the upper hand if they lead that category. They've forced 31 Turnovers on the year already which is good for 5th in the nation. Leading the way for them is Sophomore safety Kevin Byard has nine interceptions in his 24 career games, including four returned for touchdowns. He of course probably won't have much of an opportunity to intercept the ball, but he'll certainly be looked at to make big plays up front.
Prediction: Will the Blue Raiders be able to stop Navy's triple option? That remains to be seen. I do however think they'll be able to move the ball themselves, and keep this game close enough to cover the spread.
Location: Fort Worth, TX
Line: Navy -6.5. Total 56.5
Keys to Victory for Navy
-Both teams are evenly matched in terms of moving the ball on the ground. Navy famously has the triple option method in doing so and will need Keenan Reynolds to continue his strong season and limit any turnovers. The Midshipmen are second in the nation averaging 322 yards rushing per game. Reynolds has 29 rushing TDs already this season which is a record for an FBS QB in a single seaosn.
-Navy has only turned the ball over 8 times this year which is a surprising mark for a team that runs the triple option. They're truly masters of their trade.
-Senior LBs Cody Peterson and D.J. Sargenti, the top two tacklers for the Midshipmen. Peterson has 135 tackles, and Sargenti 103.
Keys to Victory for Middle Tennessee St.
-The Blue Raiders aren't slouches themselves running the ball. They've averaged 208.3 yards rushing per game which is good for 25th in the nation. Jordan Parker and Reggie Whatley have split time carrying the ball this season and have been very steady in doing so. Both are legitimate threats in keeping drives going.
-One key difference between the two teams is that Logan Kilgore can actually move the ball through the air. Middle Tennessee State finished the regular season with a 5 game win streak, thanks in large part to a 10 TD 3 INT streak by Kilgore to finish the year.
-Turnovers, or lack thereof, will play a huge role in this game and Middle Tennessee will have the upper hand if they lead that category. They've forced 31 Turnovers on the year already which is good for 5th in the nation. Leading the way for them is Sophomore safety Kevin Byard has nine interceptions in his 24 career games, including four returned for touchdowns. He of course probably won't have much of an opportunity to intercept the ball, but he'll certainly be looked at to make big plays up front.
Prediction: Will the Blue Raiders be able to stop Navy's triple option? That remains to be seen. I do however think they'll be able to move the ball themselves, and keep this game close enough to cover the spread.
Saturday, December 28, 2013
Liberty Bowl: Mississippi State vs Rice
The Bulldogs this season struggled mightily on the road, going just 1-4. It didnt help that of those five games, all our losses came against teams ranked in the top 25, including Auburn and Alabama. Dan Mullen's squad though was able to eke out six wins, thanks in large part to a dramatic comeback in the Egg Bowl on Thanksgiving. The Rice Owls were able to capture a C-USA title this year, meaning that they had on nine of their last ten games. The Owls did it this year by grinding the ball and hitting big plays at the opportune times.
Mississippi State's offense this year held quite a bit of uncertainty at the QB position, with three players attempting at least 45 passes. Senior Tyler Russell missed time with a shoulder injury, and will miss the bowl game after undergoing surgery to repair a torn labrum. Dak Prescott so the most time as the signal caller, but wasnt super efficient. Prescott completed 58.2% of his passes for just 6.9 yards per attempt, while throwing only seven touchdowns to seven interceptions. Prescott though made up for it with his legs, averaging 6.3 yards per carry, and finding the end zone eleven times. A big reason for the disparity would be the overall poor play of the offensive line in pass protection. They allowed pressures on 18.7% of the Bulldogs dropbacks, with 53 hurries allowed. Jameon Lewis is the most consistent receiving threat, hauling in 55 passes for 703 yards. On the ground, LaDarius Perkins took the most carries at 124, but averaged just at four yards per carry. The Mississippi State offense though was able to go three and out on just 16.3% of their drives, and they totaled 33.1 yards per drive. Part of it was a nice 16.3% big play rate, but the offense really depends on Dak Prescott running wild and making plays.
The Rice passing game was not very good. Somehow Taylor McHargue was able to remain the starter all season, despite completing only 52.1% of his passes. He did not eclipse the three hundred yard mark passing this season, and had a pair of games throwing for under 100 yards. He did have 17.8% of his passes go for more than fifteen yards, but the offensive line allowed the signal callers to be sacked 33 times. It was these big plays though that allowed Rice to keep throwing the ball. Jordan Taylor and Dennis Parks combined for over 1300 yards, and 11 touchdowns. Taylor averaged 16.7 yards per catch on his team high 54 catches, while Dennis Parks was the down field threat, averaging 18.1 yards per catch. The big back though Charles Ross is what moves this Rice offense. Ross has averaged 6.2 yards per carry this season, and has moved the chains on 29% of his carries. He has 39 runs of ten yards or more, and has averaged 5.6 yards per carry in the red zone.
The Rice defense has been solid all season, allowing 5.2 yards per play on offense, and 22.9 points per game. The run defense has been particularly good in the second halves of games, where theyve held opponents to just 3.4 yards per carry with just 23 runs of ten yards or more. Theyve only recorded 66 tackles for loss on the season though, just 7.4% of the snaps against them. Michael Kuzler lead the defense with 86 tackles. He had six tackles for loss, good for third on the team. Rice was able to shut down passing games almost completely though, despite pressuring QBs on just 10.4% of their dropbacks. Cody Bauer and Christian Covington combined for just 8.5 sacks and 8 more hurries to lead the team in both categories. This has left a lot of work for the secondary, who did defend 14.3% of the passes thrown against them. CB Bryce Callahan was abel to defend ten passes this season, to go with 32 tackles and another three interceptions.
Mississippi State posted a tackle for loss on 8.9% of their defensive snaps, part of the reason why the defense gave up 5.6 yards per play this season, and 4.4 per run. The run defense gave up a lot of yards, but really didnt give up many touchdwons on the ground. Besides a poor effort against LSU who had 6 rushing scores, but allowed just 10 more the rest of the season. 46 players recorded a tackle for the Bulldogs this season, with Benardrick McKinney recording 69 to lead the team. The Bulldogs werent able to bring down opposing passers very often, recording just 16 sacks (lead by Chris Jones with 3). They did hurry Qbs a lot though, recording 51 on the season. This lack of sacks did allow opposing passers to complete 62.4% of their passes for 7 yards per attempt. Jamerson Love lead the team with 6 pass breakups, and had three interceptions as well.
This is a pair of offenses that are both pretty solid at moving the ball and eating up clock. The total is just at 50.5, and with Mississippi State being somewhat weak against the run, Charles Ross could take advantage. The Bulldogs should be better than the Owls, but this game will be close throughout.
Mississippi State's offense this year held quite a bit of uncertainty at the QB position, with three players attempting at least 45 passes. Senior Tyler Russell missed time with a shoulder injury, and will miss the bowl game after undergoing surgery to repair a torn labrum. Dak Prescott so the most time as the signal caller, but wasnt super efficient. Prescott completed 58.2% of his passes for just 6.9 yards per attempt, while throwing only seven touchdowns to seven interceptions. Prescott though made up for it with his legs, averaging 6.3 yards per carry, and finding the end zone eleven times. A big reason for the disparity would be the overall poor play of the offensive line in pass protection. They allowed pressures on 18.7% of the Bulldogs dropbacks, with 53 hurries allowed. Jameon Lewis is the most consistent receiving threat, hauling in 55 passes for 703 yards. On the ground, LaDarius Perkins took the most carries at 124, but averaged just at four yards per carry. The Mississippi State offense though was able to go three and out on just 16.3% of their drives, and they totaled 33.1 yards per drive. Part of it was a nice 16.3% big play rate, but the offense really depends on Dak Prescott running wild and making plays.
The Rice passing game was not very good. Somehow Taylor McHargue was able to remain the starter all season, despite completing only 52.1% of his passes. He did not eclipse the three hundred yard mark passing this season, and had a pair of games throwing for under 100 yards. He did have 17.8% of his passes go for more than fifteen yards, but the offensive line allowed the signal callers to be sacked 33 times. It was these big plays though that allowed Rice to keep throwing the ball. Jordan Taylor and Dennis Parks combined for over 1300 yards, and 11 touchdowns. Taylor averaged 16.7 yards per catch on his team high 54 catches, while Dennis Parks was the down field threat, averaging 18.1 yards per catch. The big back though Charles Ross is what moves this Rice offense. Ross has averaged 6.2 yards per carry this season, and has moved the chains on 29% of his carries. He has 39 runs of ten yards or more, and has averaged 5.6 yards per carry in the red zone.
The Rice defense has been solid all season, allowing 5.2 yards per play on offense, and 22.9 points per game. The run defense has been particularly good in the second halves of games, where theyve held opponents to just 3.4 yards per carry with just 23 runs of ten yards or more. Theyve only recorded 66 tackles for loss on the season though, just 7.4% of the snaps against them. Michael Kuzler lead the defense with 86 tackles. He had six tackles for loss, good for third on the team. Rice was able to shut down passing games almost completely though, despite pressuring QBs on just 10.4% of their dropbacks. Cody Bauer and Christian Covington combined for just 8.5 sacks and 8 more hurries to lead the team in both categories. This has left a lot of work for the secondary, who did defend 14.3% of the passes thrown against them. CB Bryce Callahan was abel to defend ten passes this season, to go with 32 tackles and another three interceptions.
Mississippi State posted a tackle for loss on 8.9% of their defensive snaps, part of the reason why the defense gave up 5.6 yards per play this season, and 4.4 per run. The run defense gave up a lot of yards, but really didnt give up many touchdwons on the ground. Besides a poor effort against LSU who had 6 rushing scores, but allowed just 10 more the rest of the season. 46 players recorded a tackle for the Bulldogs this season, with Benardrick McKinney recording 69 to lead the team. The Bulldogs werent able to bring down opposing passers very often, recording just 16 sacks (lead by Chris Jones with 3). They did hurry Qbs a lot though, recording 51 on the season. This lack of sacks did allow opposing passers to complete 62.4% of their passes for 7 yards per attempt. Jamerson Love lead the team with 6 pass breakups, and had three interceptions as well.
This is a pair of offenses that are both pretty solid at moving the ball and eating up clock. The total is just at 50.5, and with Mississippi State being somewhat weak against the run, Charles Ross could take advantage. The Bulldogs should be better than the Owls, but this game will be close throughout.
Friday, December 27, 2013
Advocare V1000 Bowl: Arizona vs Boston College
Arizona will bring one of the best running games in the nation this week, a staple of Rich Rodriguez's spread attack. Its worked this season in a fairly stacked Pac-12, averaging 32.8 points per game and 452 yards per game. The Boston College Eagles were hot the second half of the season, going 4-2 and scoring 29 or more points in all but a loss at North Carolina the last week of October.
Ka'Deem Carey might be the best running back that no one is talking about. He ran for 1716 yards this season and averaged 5.3 yards per carry, while also scoring 17 times. He was explosive, with 38 runs over ten yards; he also though converted 21 of 29 third and short opportunities and averaged 3.4 yards per carry in the redzone. He also did not have a single game where he did not averaged under 4.3 yards per carry, and broke the hundred yard mark in every game. QB BJ Denker took the majority of the other carries, totaling 898 yards and 12 touchdowns on 167 carries. Denker's passing game though left a bit to be desired, averaging just 6.3 yards per attempt and tossing only 14 touchdowns. He was pretty miserable on third downs as well, converting just 28.7% of his attempts and completing only 53.2% of those passes. His top pass catchers were Nate Phillips and Terrence Miller, a pair that both averaged under 12 yards per catch, with the whole corps averaging just 10.4 yards per reception.
Andre Williams is the best running back that everyone is talking about. The Heisman finalist was able to become one of the few players to rush for over 2000 yards, ending up with 2102 on 6.4 yards per carry. Williams had 49 runs of ten yards or more, but teams stacked the box a bit more against him on third and short, meaning he only converted half of his chances (10 for 20). BC did also generate some offense through the air with Chase Rettig completing 61.6% of his passes for 7.6 yards per attempt. He had 17.7% of his passes go for more than 15 yards, but also struggled mightily on third downs. He only converted 31% of his attempts, and had just 51.6% of them be completed. He also tossed four interceptions on third down, when he only had six all season. The offensive line didn't help much with that, allowing a pressure rate of 15% this season, with 19 sacks on just 299 dropbacks.
While the Arizona offense was able to generate yards and points, the defense struggled to stop opponents form doing the same. They allowed 417.5 yards per game to FBS opponents, and 5.5 yards per play. Teams were able to pick up 4.2 yards per carry on the ground, and only Northern Arizona was kept under the 100 yard mark. They averaged 5.5 tackles for loss against FBS opponents, lead by Sione Tuihalamaka who had 11. Five of those were for sacks, again leading the team. Safety Tra'mayne Bondurant was the leader of the secondary, picking off four passes, defending five and recording 66 tackles. He was active against the run as well, recording seven tackles for loss.
BC was actually pretty stout against the run, allowing FBS opponents to pick up just 3.8 yards per carry. They werent very good in a lot of short yardage situations, but in the redzone they stiffened up, allowing only 2.4 yards per carry. Steele Divitto and Kevin Pierre-Louis each had over 100 tackles for the Eagles, and combined for 15.5 tackles for loss. Pierre Louis was second on the team with six sack, trailing Kasim Edebali who had 8.5 and had another three QB Hurries. Edebali also had 63 tackles and had four forced fumbles. The pass defense though struggled mightily, allowing 8.1 yards per attempt with a 66.7% completion rate and 24 touchdowns.
These run centric offenses should provide an entertaining contrast in offensive styles. With BC's defene being pretty good against the run, they should be able to make it interesting. But in the end, Arizona should come out of this with a win for the Pac-12. The under 57 is an intriguing play with the amount of time the clock should be running.
Ka'Deem Carey might be the best running back that no one is talking about. He ran for 1716 yards this season and averaged 5.3 yards per carry, while also scoring 17 times. He was explosive, with 38 runs over ten yards; he also though converted 21 of 29 third and short opportunities and averaged 3.4 yards per carry in the redzone. He also did not have a single game where he did not averaged under 4.3 yards per carry, and broke the hundred yard mark in every game. QB BJ Denker took the majority of the other carries, totaling 898 yards and 12 touchdowns on 167 carries. Denker's passing game though left a bit to be desired, averaging just 6.3 yards per attempt and tossing only 14 touchdowns. He was pretty miserable on third downs as well, converting just 28.7% of his attempts and completing only 53.2% of those passes. His top pass catchers were Nate Phillips and Terrence Miller, a pair that both averaged under 12 yards per catch, with the whole corps averaging just 10.4 yards per reception.
Andre Williams is the best running back that everyone is talking about. The Heisman finalist was able to become one of the few players to rush for over 2000 yards, ending up with 2102 on 6.4 yards per carry. Williams had 49 runs of ten yards or more, but teams stacked the box a bit more against him on third and short, meaning he only converted half of his chances (10 for 20). BC did also generate some offense through the air with Chase Rettig completing 61.6% of his passes for 7.6 yards per attempt. He had 17.7% of his passes go for more than 15 yards, but also struggled mightily on third downs. He only converted 31% of his attempts, and had just 51.6% of them be completed. He also tossed four interceptions on third down, when he only had six all season. The offensive line didn't help much with that, allowing a pressure rate of 15% this season, with 19 sacks on just 299 dropbacks.
While the Arizona offense was able to generate yards and points, the defense struggled to stop opponents form doing the same. They allowed 417.5 yards per game to FBS opponents, and 5.5 yards per play. Teams were able to pick up 4.2 yards per carry on the ground, and only Northern Arizona was kept under the 100 yard mark. They averaged 5.5 tackles for loss against FBS opponents, lead by Sione Tuihalamaka who had 11. Five of those were for sacks, again leading the team. Safety Tra'mayne Bondurant was the leader of the secondary, picking off four passes, defending five and recording 66 tackles. He was active against the run as well, recording seven tackles for loss.
BC was actually pretty stout against the run, allowing FBS opponents to pick up just 3.8 yards per carry. They werent very good in a lot of short yardage situations, but in the redzone they stiffened up, allowing only 2.4 yards per carry. Steele Divitto and Kevin Pierre-Louis each had over 100 tackles for the Eagles, and combined for 15.5 tackles for loss. Pierre Louis was second on the team with six sack, trailing Kasim Edebali who had 8.5 and had another three QB Hurries. Edebali also had 63 tackles and had four forced fumbles. The pass defense though struggled mightily, allowing 8.1 yards per attempt with a 66.7% completion rate and 24 touchdowns.
These run centric offenses should provide an entertaining contrast in offensive styles. With BC's defene being pretty good against the run, they should be able to make it interesting. But in the end, Arizona should come out of this with a win for the Pac-12. The under 57 is an intriguing play with the amount of time the clock should be running.
Alamo Bowl : Texas vs Oregon
Mack Brown was embattled all this season after a series of non conference losses, and a controversial win over Iowa State. He'll stay that way in his last game as head coach of the Longhorns, starting as fourteen point underdogs to an Oregon squad that failed to reach its own lofty goals. The Ducks were in line for a title game appearance until a loss against Stanford and an unlikely upset loss to Arizona took away any hope of appearing in the Rose Bowl. Both teams look to finish the year with a redeeming win.
The Texas passing game was never really dangerous this season, with just 47 passes of over 15 yards, ranking 102nd in the nation. Case McCoy was able to wrest the starting job from David Ash in part due to Ash's continuing concussion, but was able to complete just 57.4% of his passes for only six yards per attempt and had just 11 touchdowns to 11 interceptions. His second half numbers were worse, just a 56.4% completion rate, 5.7 yards per attempt and more interceptions(7) than touchdowns(6). It did not help that the most explosive receiver Texas has in Daje Johnson missed three games and averaged just 7.4 yards per catch. Mike Davis also missed time this season, but did manage to haul in 49 catches for 715 yards. The ground game was what propelled the Texas offense, riding Jonathon Gray until he injured his Achilles against West Virginia. That left Malcolm Brown and Joe Bergeron to handle the load. Brown averaged 4.1 yards per carry this season, and had a pair of more than 120 yard efforts after Gray's injury. He and Bergeron were able to combine for 30 runs of more than 10 yards.
The Ducks offense has had no such issues moving the ball, gaining the second most yards per game this season at 573 yards per game. Marcus Mariota was one of the most efficient passers in the nation this season, completing 63.1% of his passes for 9.5 yards per attempt with 30 touchdowns and just four interceptions. He did struggle some on third downs, completing just 58.5% of his passes and converting only 33.9% of his attempts. However, 40% of those attempts were on third and more than 10 yards to go; he was 46.8% on converting from third and 9 or less. Mariota was also a prolific runner, with 26 runs of 10 yards or more and averaging 7.2 yards per attempt. He also seems to have healed from a nagging knee injury that limited him during the end of the season. The run game though had several dangerous runners in Byron Marshall, Thomas Tyner and De'Anthony Thomas, despite all three missing some time this season. Overall, the Ducks running game averaged 6.4 yards per carry and had 108 runs of more than ten yards. Possibly more impressively 40 of those went for more than 20 yards, and averaged 5.3 yards per carry inside the maroon zone (with 35 touchdowns).
Texas defensively was very good against the pass. Allowing just a 56% completion rate and 6.8 yards per attempt, they allowed only 12 touchdowns through the air while intercepting ten of them. CB Quandre Diggs was the best player in the unit despite not intercepting a pass by breaking up 10 of them and recording 51 tackles. Fellow CB Duke Thomas lead the team with three picks, and defended 5 other passes. The run defense was greatly improved after the team gave up 550 yards to BYU, allowing only four more opponents run run for more than four yards per carry the rest of the season. Jackson Jeffcoat is the front sevens best player, totaling a team high 76 tackles with 18 of them for loss. He was a menace to opposing passers, recording 12 sacks and 14 QB hurries.
The Ducks defense will have to be better than they had been down the stretch against the run to make defensive coordinator Nick Aliotti's last game successful. They allowed 4.4 yards per carry throughout November, and allowed 10 rushing touchdowns; they also allowed 925 yards, only 50 fewer than they had though the previous 8 games. LB Derrick Malone lead the team with 102 stops this season, but had just a pair of tackles for loss. CB Avery Patterson was probably the best all around defender for the team, recording 71 tackle,s six of them for loss with a pair of interceptions and breaking up 6 more passes.
This game really is all situated for Oregon to run away in, but the team has had lapses this season in focus and execution that have cost them. Texas will also likely be playing up a bit as Mack brown is leaving. The combination is having us stay away, but Oregon should be able to win this one.
The Ducks offense has had no such issues moving the ball, gaining the second most yards per game this season at 573 yards per game. Marcus Mariota was one of the most efficient passers in the nation this season, completing 63.1% of his passes for 9.5 yards per attempt with 30 touchdowns and just four interceptions. He did struggle some on third downs, completing just 58.5% of his passes and converting only 33.9% of his attempts. However, 40% of those attempts were on third and more than 10 yards to go; he was 46.8% on converting from third and 9 or less. Mariota was also a prolific runner, with 26 runs of 10 yards or more and averaging 7.2 yards per attempt. He also seems to have healed from a nagging knee injury that limited him during the end of the season. The run game though had several dangerous runners in Byron Marshall, Thomas Tyner and De'Anthony Thomas, despite all three missing some time this season. Overall, the Ducks running game averaged 6.4 yards per carry and had 108 runs of more than ten yards. Possibly more impressively 40 of those went for more than 20 yards, and averaged 5.3 yards per carry inside the maroon zone (with 35 touchdowns).
Texas defensively was very good against the pass. Allowing just a 56% completion rate and 6.8 yards per attempt, they allowed only 12 touchdowns through the air while intercepting ten of them. CB Quandre Diggs was the best player in the unit despite not intercepting a pass by breaking up 10 of them and recording 51 tackles. Fellow CB Duke Thomas lead the team with three picks, and defended 5 other passes. The run defense was greatly improved after the team gave up 550 yards to BYU, allowing only four more opponents run run for more than four yards per carry the rest of the season. Jackson Jeffcoat is the front sevens best player, totaling a team high 76 tackles with 18 of them for loss. He was a menace to opposing passers, recording 12 sacks and 14 QB hurries.
The Ducks defense will have to be better than they had been down the stretch against the run to make defensive coordinator Nick Aliotti's last game successful. They allowed 4.4 yards per carry throughout November, and allowed 10 rushing touchdowns; they also allowed 925 yards, only 50 fewer than they had though the previous 8 games. LB Derrick Malone lead the team with 102 stops this season, but had just a pair of tackles for loss. CB Avery Patterson was probably the best all around defender for the team, recording 71 tackle,s six of them for loss with a pair of interceptions and breaking up 6 more passes.
This game really is all situated for Oregon to run away in, but the team has had lapses this season in focus and execution that have cost them. Texas will also likely be playing up a bit as Mack brown is leaving. The combination is having us stay away, but Oregon should be able to win this one.
Russell Athletic Bowl: Miami (FL) vs. Louisville
Matchup: Miami (FL) vs. Louisville
Location: Citrus Bowl ~ Orlando, FL
Line: Louisville -3. Total 57
Keys to Victory for Miami
-Stephen Morris has been overlooked this season due to the inconsistencies of his team and an ankle injury that greatly affected his mobility. The Junior Quarterback still had an excellent season and will need to limit the turnovers if his Hurricanes want to win the game.
-Allen Hurns and Stacy Coley have had very good seasons from the receiving positions. Hurns' best performance of the season was a 9 catch, 173 yard day against Pittsburgh. Coley is just a true freshman and has a bright future as a Hurricane.
-The Hurricanes must protect the Quarterback just as they've successfully done so all season. They only allowed 13 sacks all season, which was good enough to lead the ACC. They will probably be facing the best Defensive Line that they've seen all year, but have performed very well against other top tier Defensive Lines like Florida State's and Virginia Tech.
Keys to Victory for Louisville
-Teddy Bridgewater has been carrying this underachieving team all season. The future NFL QB and potential #1 overall draft pick should be able to pick apart this Hurricanes defense that made Wake Forest's Tanner Price look like an NFL Pro Bowler. As long as he gets a decent amount of time to throw the ball, he'll have no problem lighting up the scoreboard.
-In order to disrupt Stephen Morris, Louisville will need a big game from their defensive line. Roy Philon and Brandon Dunn will be playing in their final college games and would like to increase their NFL stock. DE Marcus has perhaps been their best lineman with 12.5 sacks, 16.5 TFL, and 3 forced fumbles.
Prediction: The matchup to watch will be how Miami's elite offensive line protects the QB against Louisville's elite defensive line. Teddy Bridgewater should have no problem putting up points on the board and therefore should be able to get Louisville the W.
-Rich Douglas
Location: Citrus Bowl ~ Orlando, FL
Line: Louisville -3. Total 57
Keys to Victory for Miami
-Stephen Morris has been overlooked this season due to the inconsistencies of his team and an ankle injury that greatly affected his mobility. The Junior Quarterback still had an excellent season and will need to limit the turnovers if his Hurricanes want to win the game.
-Allen Hurns and Stacy Coley have had very good seasons from the receiving positions. Hurns' best performance of the season was a 9 catch, 173 yard day against Pittsburgh. Coley is just a true freshman and has a bright future as a Hurricane.
-The Hurricanes must protect the Quarterback just as they've successfully done so all season. They only allowed 13 sacks all season, which was good enough to lead the ACC. They will probably be facing the best Defensive Line that they've seen all year, but have performed very well against other top tier Defensive Lines like Florida State's and Virginia Tech.
Keys to Victory for Louisville
-Teddy Bridgewater has been carrying this underachieving team all season. The future NFL QB and potential #1 overall draft pick should be able to pick apart this Hurricanes defense that made Wake Forest's Tanner Price look like an NFL Pro Bowler. As long as he gets a decent amount of time to throw the ball, he'll have no problem lighting up the scoreboard.
-In order to disrupt Stephen Morris, Louisville will need a big game from their defensive line. Roy Philon and Brandon Dunn will be playing in their final college games and would like to increase their NFL stock. DE Marcus has perhaps been their best lineman with 12.5 sacks, 16.5 TFL, and 3 forced fumbles.
Prediction: The matchup to watch will be how Miami's elite offensive line protects the QB against Louisville's elite defensive line. Teddy Bridgewater should have no problem putting up points on the board and therefore should be able to get Louisville the W.
-Rich Douglas
Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl: Michigan vs Kansas State
Neither team playing in this bowl had the season they had envisioned. Kansas State was looking to stay near the top of the Big 12 after their big 2012 campaign. But losing to FCS North Dakota State in the opener and three straight conference losses ended those hopes. Michigan had put together five straight wins to start the season, but back to back close scares against Akron and UConn held the promise of more trouble to come. The Wolverines then dropped five of the seven remaining conference games, including a heart breaker against Ohio State in the season finale.
Kansas State turned over a lot of their offense from 2012, losing its top wideout, and QB Colin Klein who drove the offense to 38 points a game and a berth against Oregon in a BCS game. They did return John Hubert though to run the ball, and he did a better job than the year before. Hubert averaged 5.3 yards per carry and scored nine times on the ground. He averaged 3.6 yards per carry in the red zone, and had four 100 yard efforts this season. The team's second leading rusher was Daniel Sams who averaged 5.3 yards per carry as well and came up with eleven touchdowns. This running game helped the Wildcats go three and out on just 17.7% of their drives this season. Sams was the running QB, while Jake Waters was the passer. Waters completed 59.2% of his passes for 9.4 yards per attempt with 15 touchdowns and nine interceptions. His bets down is first down, where he has a 70% completion rate and averages 11.5 yards per attempt. Tyler Lockett was the most consistent receiver this season, hauling in 71 passes (nearly double the next receiver) and averaging 16.1 yards per catch. Lockett had 23 catches of more than fifteen yards, and converted 75% of his third down catches for first downs.
The Michigan offense managed to average 33.8 points a game this season, despite averaging under thirty yards per drive and just 5.5 yards per play. Its unlikely to improve with Sean Morris getting his first start in place of Devin Gardner. Morris will be looking to Jeremy Gallon when he throws most likely, as the senior wideout has 80 receptions and 1284 yards. He has 31 receptions of over fifteen yards, but has yet to find the end zone in the fourth quarter. The Michigan run game has been a dumpster fire basically all season. Only four times were they able to average better than four yards per carry, and in two games they averaged less than zero. Fitzgerald Toussaint did manage to reach over 100 yards twice this season, but was limited down the stretch because of an injury, carrying the ball just 28 times in November. The offensive line was better in pass protection, allowing pressure on 13.1% of the QBs dropbacks.
The K State defense was very good at limiting yards after catch, allowing just 10.5 yards per reception. They also allowed just a 60% completion rate, and were able to intercept more passes than they allowed for touchdowns (16:13). Randall Evans leads the team with ten passes defended, and added a pair of interceptions to his 59 tackles. The run defense was fairly stout throughout the year, allowing just 3.9 yards per carry, but were somewhat susceptible to longer runs, allowing 53 runs of more than ten yards on 457 carries. Blake Slaughter lead the team with 103 stops, and he was able to record six tackles for loss.
The Michigan defense was slightly better against the run this season than the Wildcats were, allowing just 3.8 yards per carry. That number though is inflated because of an awful game against Ohio State in which they allowed nearly 400 yards on the ground. they had not allowed any other team to cross the 200 yard mark, despite teams running the ball an average of 37 times a game against them. James Ross III was the elader in tackles amongst the front seven with 81 stops. Matching him was DB Raymon Taylor, who was all over the field. With his 81 stops, he added four interceptions and defended 9 passes. His play was a big reason why the Wolverines allowed only 54.7% of passes to be completed against them, for under seven yards per attempt.
This game is a tough one to call because of the loss of Devin Gardner, but KState was the better team even before he was going to miss this game. They should come close to covering the five and a half points, especially if Ryan Mueller can get to the new quarterback( 11.5 sacks for Mueller this season).
Kansas State turned over a lot of their offense from 2012, losing its top wideout, and QB Colin Klein who drove the offense to 38 points a game and a berth against Oregon in a BCS game. They did return John Hubert though to run the ball, and he did a better job than the year before. Hubert averaged 5.3 yards per carry and scored nine times on the ground. He averaged 3.6 yards per carry in the red zone, and had four 100 yard efforts this season. The team's second leading rusher was Daniel Sams who averaged 5.3 yards per carry as well and came up with eleven touchdowns. This running game helped the Wildcats go three and out on just 17.7% of their drives this season. Sams was the running QB, while Jake Waters was the passer. Waters completed 59.2% of his passes for 9.4 yards per attempt with 15 touchdowns and nine interceptions. His bets down is first down, where he has a 70% completion rate and averages 11.5 yards per attempt. Tyler Lockett was the most consistent receiver this season, hauling in 71 passes (nearly double the next receiver) and averaging 16.1 yards per catch. Lockett had 23 catches of more than fifteen yards, and converted 75% of his third down catches for first downs.
The Michigan offense managed to average 33.8 points a game this season, despite averaging under thirty yards per drive and just 5.5 yards per play. Its unlikely to improve with Sean Morris getting his first start in place of Devin Gardner. Morris will be looking to Jeremy Gallon when he throws most likely, as the senior wideout has 80 receptions and 1284 yards. He has 31 receptions of over fifteen yards, but has yet to find the end zone in the fourth quarter. The Michigan run game has been a dumpster fire basically all season. Only four times were they able to average better than four yards per carry, and in two games they averaged less than zero. Fitzgerald Toussaint did manage to reach over 100 yards twice this season, but was limited down the stretch because of an injury, carrying the ball just 28 times in November. The offensive line was better in pass protection, allowing pressure on 13.1% of the QBs dropbacks.
The K State defense was very good at limiting yards after catch, allowing just 10.5 yards per reception. They also allowed just a 60% completion rate, and were able to intercept more passes than they allowed for touchdowns (16:13). Randall Evans leads the team with ten passes defended, and added a pair of interceptions to his 59 tackles. The run defense was fairly stout throughout the year, allowing just 3.9 yards per carry, but were somewhat susceptible to longer runs, allowing 53 runs of more than ten yards on 457 carries. Blake Slaughter lead the team with 103 stops, and he was able to record six tackles for loss.
The Michigan defense was slightly better against the run this season than the Wildcats were, allowing just 3.8 yards per carry. That number though is inflated because of an awful game against Ohio State in which they allowed nearly 400 yards on the ground. they had not allowed any other team to cross the 200 yard mark, despite teams running the ball an average of 37 times a game against them. James Ross III was the elader in tackles amongst the front seven with 81 stops. Matching him was DB Raymon Taylor, who was all over the field. With his 81 stops, he added four interceptions and defended 9 passes. His play was a big reason why the Wolverines allowed only 54.7% of passes to be completed against them, for under seven yards per attempt.
This game is a tough one to call because of the loss of Devin Gardner, but KState was the better team even before he was going to miss this game. They should come close to covering the five and a half points, especially if Ryan Mueller can get to the new quarterback( 11.5 sacks for Mueller this season).
Thursday, December 26, 2013
Belk Bowl: Cincinnati vs North Carolina
Despite an injury to the man with the bets name in college football, the Bearcats were able to pile up nine wins and having had a shot for a share of the Conference title. Cinncy was able to do it by defense, ranking 12th in the nation with just 19.5 points allowed per game. North Carolina took the tougher route to get bowl eligible, losing five of six to start the season before rattling off five straight wins against ACC foes including an 80 point effort against Old Dominion.
The Cincinnati offense took a big blow when Munchie Legaux went down against Illinois tearing ligaments in his left knee. Brendon Kay stepped in, and has been able to play pretty good ball. He completed 68.4% of his passes for 8.7 yards per attempt with a 2:1 touchdown to interception ratio. Kay has been able to convert 44% of his third down pass attempts, and is better than 50% in the range of six yards or less. Anthony McClung has a chance to go over a thousand yards this season, picking up 908 on 68 receptions during the regular season. McClung had a catch in every game that he played, and the last five had at least 90 yards.Cincinnati should look to get Mekale McKay more involved down the field, with half of his receptions going for more than 20 yards. The backfield has been a three headed attack, with Hosey Williams, Ralph David Abernathy and Tion Green. The trio have combined for better than 1450 yards, and have 15 touchdowns. Overall the run game has been somewhat inefficient the last few months, averaging under four yards a carry and averaging just 141 yards per game.
The Tarheels experienced their own loss of QB when Bryn Renner went down early in November with a shoulder injury, bringing in the more dual threat Marquise Williams. Williams, a sophomore, completed just 58% of his passes for 8.3 yards per attempt with 14 touchdowns and six interceptions. He also though rushed for 490 yards on his 102 attempts, and scored six more touchdowns on the ground. He struggled on third downs in longer situations, converting just a third of his attempts over seven yards, but was at 41% conversion rate when less than six yards to go. The biggest threat in the receiving game certainly is Eric Ebron, the big junior TE. Ebron has 55 catches to lead the team, with 895 yards. His 22 receptions of more than fifteen yards leads the team, and he has gone nine for ten on third down conversions. Wide out Quinshad Davis has also had a very good year averaging 15.4 yards per catch, and has ten touchdown receptions. He's been a red zone target, with all five of his catches there going for touchdowns, and is explosive in his own right with 20 catches of fifteen yards or more. Freshman TH Logan has the second most carries to Williams at 78 touches, and has averaged 5.9 yards per attempt. His second halves have been very good, with seven runs of more than ten yards on 37 carries, and is averaging seven yards a carry.
The Bearcats defense is lead by senior linebacker Greg Blair, who tallied 96 tackles this season, 6.5 of them for loss. He also added five more QB hurries to a defense that got to QBs, tallying 35 sacks and another 40 QB hurries. Silveryberry Mouhon and Jordan Stepp combined for 15.5 sacks, with Mouhon adding another seven QB hurries. The run defense was stout as well, allowing only 3.1 yards per carry and ten touchdown on the ground. They allowed fewer than 200 total yards in the month of November, with just a pair of touchdowns. The Heels meanwhile have not been the defense theyve been known to be the last several seasons, but Kareem Martin has continued to be one of the best ends in the ACC. Martin has 78 tackles, 20 of them for loss. He has 11 sacks to lead the team and has 14 more QB hurries while batting down three passes. Opponents have had just a 57.1% completion rate with 7 yards per attempt and theyve picked of 12 passes. Opponents have found more space on the ground, allowing 12% of the carries against them to gain at least ten yards.
UNC has been riding a hot streak to get into this game, but the Bearcats have been the more consistently solid team this season. Theyve managed to go three and out on only 12.1% of their drives this season, and have averaged 36 yards per drive; compare this to North Carolina's 25.5% rate and 33.6 yards per drive. This game should belong to Cincinnati at +2.5.
The Cincinnati offense took a big blow when Munchie Legaux went down against Illinois tearing ligaments in his left knee. Brendon Kay stepped in, and has been able to play pretty good ball. He completed 68.4% of his passes for 8.7 yards per attempt with a 2:1 touchdown to interception ratio. Kay has been able to convert 44% of his third down pass attempts, and is better than 50% in the range of six yards or less. Anthony McClung has a chance to go over a thousand yards this season, picking up 908 on 68 receptions during the regular season. McClung had a catch in every game that he played, and the last five had at least 90 yards.Cincinnati should look to get Mekale McKay more involved down the field, with half of his receptions going for more than 20 yards. The backfield has been a three headed attack, with Hosey Williams, Ralph David Abernathy and Tion Green. The trio have combined for better than 1450 yards, and have 15 touchdowns. Overall the run game has been somewhat inefficient the last few months, averaging under four yards a carry and averaging just 141 yards per game.
The Tarheels experienced their own loss of QB when Bryn Renner went down early in November with a shoulder injury, bringing in the more dual threat Marquise Williams. Williams, a sophomore, completed just 58% of his passes for 8.3 yards per attempt with 14 touchdowns and six interceptions. He also though rushed for 490 yards on his 102 attempts, and scored six more touchdowns on the ground. He struggled on third downs in longer situations, converting just a third of his attempts over seven yards, but was at 41% conversion rate when less than six yards to go. The biggest threat in the receiving game certainly is Eric Ebron, the big junior TE. Ebron has 55 catches to lead the team, with 895 yards. His 22 receptions of more than fifteen yards leads the team, and he has gone nine for ten on third down conversions. Wide out Quinshad Davis has also had a very good year averaging 15.4 yards per catch, and has ten touchdown receptions. He's been a red zone target, with all five of his catches there going for touchdowns, and is explosive in his own right with 20 catches of fifteen yards or more. Freshman TH Logan has the second most carries to Williams at 78 touches, and has averaged 5.9 yards per attempt. His second halves have been very good, with seven runs of more than ten yards on 37 carries, and is averaging seven yards a carry.
The Bearcats defense is lead by senior linebacker Greg Blair, who tallied 96 tackles this season, 6.5 of them for loss. He also added five more QB hurries to a defense that got to QBs, tallying 35 sacks and another 40 QB hurries. Silveryberry Mouhon and Jordan Stepp combined for 15.5 sacks, with Mouhon adding another seven QB hurries. The run defense was stout as well, allowing only 3.1 yards per carry and ten touchdown on the ground. They allowed fewer than 200 total yards in the month of November, with just a pair of touchdowns. The Heels meanwhile have not been the defense theyve been known to be the last several seasons, but Kareem Martin has continued to be one of the best ends in the ACC. Martin has 78 tackles, 20 of them for loss. He has 11 sacks to lead the team and has 14 more QB hurries while batting down three passes. Opponents have had just a 57.1% completion rate with 7 yards per attempt and theyve picked of 12 passes. Opponents have found more space on the ground, allowing 12% of the carries against them to gain at least ten yards.
UNC has been riding a hot streak to get into this game, but the Bearcats have been the more consistently solid team this season. Theyve managed to go three and out on only 12.1% of their drives this season, and have averaged 36 yards per drive; compare this to North Carolina's 25.5% rate and 33.6 yards per drive. This game should belong to Cincinnati at +2.5.
Wednesday, December 25, 2013
Pinstripe Bowl: Rutgers vs Notre Dame
The Scarlet Knights will get a pseudo home game against the Irish, playing in the Yankees Stadium. Rutgers started the season with a shootout loss to Fresno State and four straight wins. After then losing five of the next six, the Knights were able to get bowl eligible by throttling USF at home. The Fighting Irish had to contend with the loss of Everett Gholson before the season even started, but were still able to reach eight wins and get a victory over rival USC for victory in back to back years for the first time since 2000-2001.
The Rutgers offense wasn't overly proficient, totaling just over 3500 yards of offense this year, and scoring just 329 points. Despite gaining just over 28 yards a drive, the Knights only went three and out 20.8% of their drives. Gary Nova was replaced after playing dreadfully in the 1-4 slide by senior Chas Dodd. Dodd was able to complete 60% of his passes, but averaged just 6.8 yards per pass and had just a pair of touchdowns to three interceptions. The offensive line allowed a pressure on 14.7% of the QBs dropbacks, so it was not easy for either of the signal callers. This likely lead to TE Tyler Kroft leading the team in receptions with 40, while averaging 13.3 yards per catch. The run game only averaged 3.7 yards per carry, but its somewhat misleading since Paul James was actually able average 5.7 yards per carry. James converted six of his third and short carries, while also averaging 3.6 yards per carry in the redzone.
The Notre Dame offense had its own issues at the QB position with Gholson missing the season, Tommy Rees stepped in as the starter. He was able to hit long passes fairly often, with a fifth of his passes going for more than fifteen yards, but he only completed 53.7% of them. He did improve his touchdown to interception ratio, moving it to 2:1. Rees looked often for TJ Jones, who ended up with 65 catches on the season and a 16 yards per catch average. Jones was good on third downs, converting 75% of his catches for first downs. Troy Niklas has been a good option in stretches this season, and has averaged over 15 yards a catch. The run game was headlined by a pair of juniors, Cam McDaniel and George Atkinson the third. The pair combined for nearly 1200 yards and six touchdowns, with 28 runs of more than ten yards between them.
The Rutgers pass defense which has been so good in years past was just downright awful this year. The unit allowed a 64.1% completion rate for an average of 7.9 yards per attempt. While defending only 10.4% of the pass thrown against them, they allowed 31 passing touchdowns. However, the run defense was just stellar, allowing just 2.99 yards per carry while keeping half of their opponents to under 100 yards. LB Steve Longa had 111 tackles this season to pace the team, 7.5 of them for loss. DL Darius Hamilton though lead the team with 10 stops behind the line, with 4.5 sacks and four more QB hurries. The Notre Dame defense featured two of the top defensive line prospects for this upcoming draft in Louis Nix and Stephon Tuitt. Tuitt was able to play up to expectations, totaling 7.5 tackles for loss in his 45 stops to lead teh team, and contributing six sacks. Nix struggled a bit more, with a career low 27 tackles and just two of them for loss. The down year for him showed in the team's run defense, which allowed 4.2 yards per carry with 13.4% of those carries going for more than ten yards. Receivers were able to get their hands on most of the passes thrown their way, with just 28 passes defended. But they werent able to pick up extra yards, averaging just 10.5 yards per catch.
This will likely be a defensive struggle, with a pair of middling offenses and solid defenses. The total is set at just 52.5 but is in hand. The Irish are also 14.5 point favorites, a bit much for a team that only outscored Air Force by more than 10 points.
The Rutgers offense wasn't overly proficient, totaling just over 3500 yards of offense this year, and scoring just 329 points. Despite gaining just over 28 yards a drive, the Knights only went three and out 20.8% of their drives. Gary Nova was replaced after playing dreadfully in the 1-4 slide by senior Chas Dodd. Dodd was able to complete 60% of his passes, but averaged just 6.8 yards per pass and had just a pair of touchdowns to three interceptions. The offensive line allowed a pressure on 14.7% of the QBs dropbacks, so it was not easy for either of the signal callers. This likely lead to TE Tyler Kroft leading the team in receptions with 40, while averaging 13.3 yards per catch. The run game only averaged 3.7 yards per carry, but its somewhat misleading since Paul James was actually able average 5.7 yards per carry. James converted six of his third and short carries, while also averaging 3.6 yards per carry in the redzone.
The Notre Dame offense had its own issues at the QB position with Gholson missing the season, Tommy Rees stepped in as the starter. He was able to hit long passes fairly often, with a fifth of his passes going for more than fifteen yards, but he only completed 53.7% of them. He did improve his touchdown to interception ratio, moving it to 2:1. Rees looked often for TJ Jones, who ended up with 65 catches on the season and a 16 yards per catch average. Jones was good on third downs, converting 75% of his catches for first downs. Troy Niklas has been a good option in stretches this season, and has averaged over 15 yards a catch. The run game was headlined by a pair of juniors, Cam McDaniel and George Atkinson the third. The pair combined for nearly 1200 yards and six touchdowns, with 28 runs of more than ten yards between them.
The Rutgers pass defense which has been so good in years past was just downright awful this year. The unit allowed a 64.1% completion rate for an average of 7.9 yards per attempt. While defending only 10.4% of the pass thrown against them, they allowed 31 passing touchdowns. However, the run defense was just stellar, allowing just 2.99 yards per carry while keeping half of their opponents to under 100 yards. LB Steve Longa had 111 tackles this season to pace the team, 7.5 of them for loss. DL Darius Hamilton though lead the team with 10 stops behind the line, with 4.5 sacks and four more QB hurries. The Notre Dame defense featured two of the top defensive line prospects for this upcoming draft in Louis Nix and Stephon Tuitt. Tuitt was able to play up to expectations, totaling 7.5 tackles for loss in his 45 stops to lead teh team, and contributing six sacks. Nix struggled a bit more, with a career low 27 tackles and just two of them for loss. The down year for him showed in the team's run defense, which allowed 4.2 yards per carry with 13.4% of those carries going for more than ten yards. Receivers were able to get their hands on most of the passes thrown their way, with just 28 passes defended. But they werent able to pick up extra yards, averaging just 10.5 yards per catch.
Fight Hunger Bowl: Washington vs. BYU
Matchup: Washington vs. BYU
Location: San Francisco, CA ~ AT&T Park
Line: Washington -3. Total 60
Keys to Victory for Washington
-Keith Price has battled injuries throughout his senior season, but will be good to go for his college finale. The 3rd year starter had high expectations on the year, but it didn't all go as planned due to inconsistent play and the aforementioned injuries. Price is still a dynamic player and can single-handedly take a game over.
-Bishop Sankey has been overlooked in the Pac 12 due to the incredible seasons the two feature backs in the state of Arizona are having. Carey and Price, not to be mistaken with the Montreal Canadiens goalie, are respectively blowing out their competition, but Sankey is as explosive as both backs. Sankey has found the endzone 17 times while rushing for 1,775 yards.
-Austin Seferian-Jenkins will be used when the Huskies find themselves in the redzone. The big TE still has time to develop into a complete TE, but should find success against this defense.
Keys to Victory for BYU
-Aside from QB Taysom Hill, the most important player on the field for the Cougars will be future NFLer Kyle Van Noy. The impressive Linebacker will be the catalyst for a defense that will need to step up against a difficult rushing attack. Washington averages an astounding 241 yards rushing per game and Van Noy will probably need to have his best game of the season in order to slow them down.
-Taysom Hill is having an excellent season as BYU's QB. He is only second to Northern Illinois Jordan Lynch in QB rushing with 1,211 yards on the ground. Hill isn't just a one trick pony as he's also thrown for 2,500 yards passing, but has been inconsistent at times during his first full season as a starting QB.
-Supporting cast must show up. Cody Hoffman is BYU's top receiver of all time and like Van Noy, should be seeing time in the NFL. Jamaal Williams as just a sophomore is averaging 109 yards rushing per game.
Prediction: It's clear that both of these teams have excellent rushing games. The Huskies have played stiffer competition and have looked good in many of there losses against top tier teams. I would have to lean towards the Huskies, but I'm uncertain as to how they will react to Marques Tuiasosopo becoming their interim coach. They should still be fired up, and are certainly more talented to get the job done.
Location: San Francisco, CA ~ AT&T Park
Line: Washington -3. Total 60
Keys to Victory for Washington
-Keith Price has battled injuries throughout his senior season, but will be good to go for his college finale. The 3rd year starter had high expectations on the year, but it didn't all go as planned due to inconsistent play and the aforementioned injuries. Price is still a dynamic player and can single-handedly take a game over.
-Bishop Sankey has been overlooked in the Pac 12 due to the incredible seasons the two feature backs in the state of Arizona are having. Carey and Price, not to be mistaken with the Montreal Canadiens goalie, are respectively blowing out their competition, but Sankey is as explosive as both backs. Sankey has found the endzone 17 times while rushing for 1,775 yards.
-Austin Seferian-Jenkins will be used when the Huskies find themselves in the redzone. The big TE still has time to develop into a complete TE, but should find success against this defense.
Keys to Victory for BYU
-Aside from QB Taysom Hill, the most important player on the field for the Cougars will be future NFLer Kyle Van Noy. The impressive Linebacker will be the catalyst for a defense that will need to step up against a difficult rushing attack. Washington averages an astounding 241 yards rushing per game and Van Noy will probably need to have his best game of the season in order to slow them down.
-Taysom Hill is having an excellent season as BYU's QB. He is only second to Northern Illinois Jordan Lynch in QB rushing with 1,211 yards on the ground. Hill isn't just a one trick pony as he's also thrown for 2,500 yards passing, but has been inconsistent at times during his first full season as a starting QB.
-Supporting cast must show up. Cody Hoffman is BYU's top receiver of all time and like Van Noy, should be seeing time in the NFL. Jamaal Williams as just a sophomore is averaging 109 yards rushing per game.
Prediction: It's clear that both of these teams have excellent rushing games. The Huskies have played stiffer competition and have looked good in many of there losses against top tier teams. I would have to lean towards the Huskies, but I'm uncertain as to how they will react to Marques Tuiasosopo becoming their interim coach. They should still be fired up, and are certainly more talented to get the job done.
Tuesday, December 24, 2013
Military Bowl: Marshall vs Maryland
Maryland began the season as one of the hottest teams in the country, rattling off four straight wins and scoring at least 32 points in each contest. They then ran into the FSU buzzsaw, and the injuries mounted, leaving them to go 3-5 the rest of the season, scoring more than 30 just once. Marshall was more mixed early in the season, but ended with five straight wins in the regular season before falling to Rice in the C-USA championship game.
The Terrapins offense has been a bit uneven this season, going three and out on 26.3% of their drives. CJ Brown missed the majority of four games this year, and only was able to complete 58.9% of his passes this season, for a solid 7.9 yards per attempt. His touchdown total was just eleven, and he also threw six interceptions. The passing game struggles really can be traced to the loss of Stefon Diggs and Deon Long, the two outstanding who had been averaging 17.3 and 15.3 yards per catch respectively. This left Levern Jacobs as the top pass catching option, where he hauled in 40 passes for 540 yards. Freshman Amba Etta did have a breakout game against NC State at season's end, going over the hundred yard mark on just four catches. The lack of a solid passing game affected the run game a bit, but Brandon Ross followed up his freshman campaign with a comparable sophomore campaign. Ross didnt break the century mark this season, but did manage to average 4.52 yards per carry. The trouble for Ross was into the maroon zone, where he averaged just 2.4 yards per carry.
The Thundering Herd have been able to move the ball fairly effectively, averaging 6.4 yards per play and picking up 37.8 yards per drive. The run game has been the impetus, where Essray Taliaferro and Steward Butler have formed a nice one two punch. Taliaferro was stymied against Rice in the C-USA title game, picking up just 3.1 yards per carry. But in four of the previous five games he had run for more than 6.2 yards per carry in every game. Butler has been more explosive, with better than one in four carries going for more than ten yards. In the passing game, Gator Hoskins has proven to be a devastating target from his TE position, averaging 16.3 yards per catch, turning 31 of his 44 catches into first downs. His ability has been a boon to Rakeem Cato, who has struggled to always complete passes, posting just a 59.3% completion rate. Cato though has a 4:1 touchdown to interception ratio, with 88 passes of more than fifteen yards.
Defensively, the Terps were hamstrung by the injuries to starting corners Jeremiah Johnson and Dexter McDougle, leaving freshmen Will Likely and Jarrett Ross to defend the air space. Likely was able to defend five passes to lead the team, which only had 27 passes defended on the season. Despite these losses though, receivers only averaged 10.7 yards per catch against Maryland, and picked of eleven interceptions. Maryland also was able to hold ground games to minimal gains, posting a tackles for loss rate of 10.8%. Senior Marcus Whitfield lead the team with 14.5 stops behind the line of scrimmage, nine of them as sacks. Andre Monroe added another 14 stops, 8.5 of them sacks. It doesnt bode well for a Marshall offensive lien that has allowed pressures on 15% of Cato's dropbacks.
The Thundering Herd have been very good at shutting down passing games, allowing just a 51.2% completion rate and just 6.4 yards per attempt. Theyve picked off 17 passes, with 12 players picking off a pass. They might be without safety AJ LEggett, who has battled injuries down the stretch and missed the conference title game. The Herd have defended 13.5% of the passes against them. Opposing run games have struggled through November, averaging just 3.8 yards per carry despite trying to run the ball 41 times a game. James Rouse leads the team with 12 tackles for loss, with four sacks and another five QB hurries. Alez Bazzie and Ra'Shawde Myers have combined for another 15 QB hurries, two more than the Terps allowed all season.
Marshall has been the better offense all season, but theyve been vulnerable on defense at different times. This shouldn't make a big difference against Maryland though, who have had troubles stretching the field in the passing game thanks to injuries to the receiving corps and CJ Brown. The Terps defense though could stymie Marshall early on, which makes the Under 62.5 the attractive play in this meeting.
The Terrapins offense has been a bit uneven this season, going three and out on 26.3% of their drives. CJ Brown missed the majority of four games this year, and only was able to complete 58.9% of his passes this season, for a solid 7.9 yards per attempt. His touchdown total was just eleven, and he also threw six interceptions. The passing game struggles really can be traced to the loss of Stefon Diggs and Deon Long, the two outstanding who had been averaging 17.3 and 15.3 yards per catch respectively. This left Levern Jacobs as the top pass catching option, where he hauled in 40 passes for 540 yards. Freshman Amba Etta did have a breakout game against NC State at season's end, going over the hundred yard mark on just four catches. The lack of a solid passing game affected the run game a bit, but Brandon Ross followed up his freshman campaign with a comparable sophomore campaign. Ross didnt break the century mark this season, but did manage to average 4.52 yards per carry. The trouble for Ross was into the maroon zone, where he averaged just 2.4 yards per carry.
The Thundering Herd have been able to move the ball fairly effectively, averaging 6.4 yards per play and picking up 37.8 yards per drive. The run game has been the impetus, where Essray Taliaferro and Steward Butler have formed a nice one two punch. Taliaferro was stymied against Rice in the C-USA title game, picking up just 3.1 yards per carry. But in four of the previous five games he had run for more than 6.2 yards per carry in every game. Butler has been more explosive, with better than one in four carries going for more than ten yards. In the passing game, Gator Hoskins has proven to be a devastating target from his TE position, averaging 16.3 yards per catch, turning 31 of his 44 catches into first downs. His ability has been a boon to Rakeem Cato, who has struggled to always complete passes, posting just a 59.3% completion rate. Cato though has a 4:1 touchdown to interception ratio, with 88 passes of more than fifteen yards.
Defensively, the Terps were hamstrung by the injuries to starting corners Jeremiah Johnson and Dexter McDougle, leaving freshmen Will Likely and Jarrett Ross to defend the air space. Likely was able to defend five passes to lead the team, which only had 27 passes defended on the season. Despite these losses though, receivers only averaged 10.7 yards per catch against Maryland, and picked of eleven interceptions. Maryland also was able to hold ground games to minimal gains, posting a tackles for loss rate of 10.8%. Senior Marcus Whitfield lead the team with 14.5 stops behind the line of scrimmage, nine of them as sacks. Andre Monroe added another 14 stops, 8.5 of them sacks. It doesnt bode well for a Marshall offensive lien that has allowed pressures on 15% of Cato's dropbacks.
The Thundering Herd have been very good at shutting down passing games, allowing just a 51.2% completion rate and just 6.4 yards per attempt. Theyve picked off 17 passes, with 12 players picking off a pass. They might be without safety AJ LEggett, who has battled injuries down the stretch and missed the conference title game. The Herd have defended 13.5% of the passes against them. Opposing run games have struggled through November, averaging just 3.8 yards per carry despite trying to run the ball 41 times a game. James Rouse leads the team with 12 tackles for loss, with four sacks and another five QB hurries. Alez Bazzie and Ra'Shawde Myers have combined for another 15 QB hurries, two more than the Terps allowed all season.
Marshall has been the better offense all season, but theyve been vulnerable on defense at different times. This shouldn't make a big difference against Maryland though, who have had troubles stretching the field in the passing game thanks to injuries to the receiving corps and CJ Brown. The Terps defense though could stymie Marshall early on, which makes the Under 62.5 the attractive play in this meeting.
Texas Bowl: Syracuse vs. Minnesota
Matchup: Syracuse vs. Minnesota
Location: Houston, TX ~ Reliant Stadium
Line: Minnesota -4. Total 48.5
This will be a pretty brutal bowl game to watch. I'm going to leave it at that.
Keys to Victory for Syracuse
-For all their shortcomings throwing the ball, Syracuse actually runs the ball very well. They averaged 194 yards rushing per game behind Jerome Smith who had 840 yards rushing and 11 TDs along with dual threat QB Terrel Hunt.
-Hunt will have to move the ball effectively on the ground and pick his spots wisely when he throws the ball. It's no secret that he's struggled moving the ball through the air after throwing for just 1,450 yards with 10 TDs and 8 INTs this season. He did complete a respectable 61% of his passes and will need to keep it simple when asked to throw.
-The Orange front 7 face a tough task against David Cobb. However the Orange actually have a formidable run defense. The defense is led by Jay Bromley who recorded 11.5 TFL, 8 sacks, and 3 forced fumbles.
Keys to Victory for Minnesota
-The Gophers will need RB David Cobb to have a big game. This is actually a fairly meaningful game for Minnesota as they look to continue their progression from Big Ten cellar dwellar to a middle of the pack team. With the conference at arguably an all-time low point, they could certainly use the Texas Bowl as a springboard. Cobb, is undoubtedly there best player. The passing game is anemic, while Cobb ran for over 1,200 yards on just 235 touches.
-Defensive Tackle Ra'Shede Hageman is an absolute terror on the line for the Gophers. He recorded 10 tackles for loss and swatted down 9 passes this season. The big tackle projects as a 1st round overall pick and is highly motivated to have a big game.
Prediction: This is going to come down to which team can run the ball with better efficiency. My guess is as good as yours, but that under is looking intriguing.
Location: Houston, TX ~ Reliant Stadium
Line: Minnesota -4. Total 48.5
This will be a pretty brutal bowl game to watch. I'm going to leave it at that.
Keys to Victory for Syracuse
-For all their shortcomings throwing the ball, Syracuse actually runs the ball very well. They averaged 194 yards rushing per game behind Jerome Smith who had 840 yards rushing and 11 TDs along with dual threat QB Terrel Hunt.
-Hunt will have to move the ball effectively on the ground and pick his spots wisely when he throws the ball. It's no secret that he's struggled moving the ball through the air after throwing for just 1,450 yards with 10 TDs and 8 INTs this season. He did complete a respectable 61% of his passes and will need to keep it simple when asked to throw.
-The Orange front 7 face a tough task against David Cobb. However the Orange actually have a formidable run defense. The defense is led by Jay Bromley who recorded 11.5 TFL, 8 sacks, and 3 forced fumbles.
Keys to Victory for Minnesota
-The Gophers will need RB David Cobb to have a big game. This is actually a fairly meaningful game for Minnesota as they look to continue their progression from Big Ten cellar dwellar to a middle of the pack team. With the conference at arguably an all-time low point, they could certainly use the Texas Bowl as a springboard. Cobb, is undoubtedly there best player. The passing game is anemic, while Cobb ran for over 1,200 yards on just 235 touches.
-Defensive Tackle Ra'Shede Hageman is an absolute terror on the line for the Gophers. He recorded 10 tackles for loss and swatted down 9 passes this season. The big tackle projects as a 1st round overall pick and is highly motivated to have a big game.
Prediction: This is going to come down to which team can run the ball with better efficiency. My guess is as good as yours, but that under is looking intriguing.
Little Caesars Bowl: Pittsburgh vs. Bowling Green
Matchup: Pittsburgh vs. Bowling Green
Location: Detroit, Michigan ~ Ford Field
Line: Bowling Green -4. Total 49.5
Keys to Victory for Pittsburgh
-To no one's surprise, Aaron Donald has been the best player on Pitt's defense all year. I'm not sure anyone would have predicted Donald to be one of the most decorated players in College Football history though. Donald took home 4 regular season player awards and will be sure to clog up any sort of interior running the Falcons try to pull.
-The two receivers. Devin Street is the top WR on the team, but Freshman Tyler Boyd has looked great this season as he will carry the torch after Street graduates this year.
-The Offensive Line will certainly be tested as they haven't looked good all season. QB Tom Savage has been sacked a total of 41 times this.
-Speaking of Savage, he actually hasn't had too bad of a season considering the inconsistent line play in front of him. He still passed for nearly 3,000 yards with 21 TDs and 9 INTs. The Rutgers transfer can lead his team to victory, provided he keeps turnovers down.
Keys to Victory for Bowling Green
-Matt Johnson is a vastly underrated QB because of the fact that he plays in the same conference as Jordan Lynch. His 162.4 passer rating is good for 10th in the nation (don't ask me how the NCAA figures out passer rating). He passed for 3,195 yards along with 23 TDs and 5 INTs.
-The defense has been elite this season and should provide problems for an inconsistent Panther offense. They rank 5th in the nation in scoring D (14.8 ppg) and 2nd in redzone efficiency.
-RB Travis Greene will face his toughest task of the season and should be considered the most important player on the field for Bowling Green. Greene had a stellar season with 1,555 yards rushing and 15 TDs. Johnson also can move the ball on the ground as he carried the ball 100 times and found the endzone 5 times rushing.
Prediction: Bowling Green is rightfully favored in this game even though they're conference top to bottom is weaker. They should eke out a victory over Pitt, but will have to establish that running game early if they want to do so.
Location: Detroit, Michigan ~ Ford Field
Line: Bowling Green -4. Total 49.5
Keys to Victory for Pittsburgh
-To no one's surprise, Aaron Donald has been the best player on Pitt's defense all year. I'm not sure anyone would have predicted Donald to be one of the most decorated players in College Football history though. Donald took home 4 regular season player awards and will be sure to clog up any sort of interior running the Falcons try to pull.
-The two receivers. Devin Street is the top WR on the team, but Freshman Tyler Boyd has looked great this season as he will carry the torch after Street graduates this year.
-The Offensive Line will certainly be tested as they haven't looked good all season. QB Tom Savage has been sacked a total of 41 times this.
-Speaking of Savage, he actually hasn't had too bad of a season considering the inconsistent line play in front of him. He still passed for nearly 3,000 yards with 21 TDs and 9 INTs. The Rutgers transfer can lead his team to victory, provided he keeps turnovers down.
Keys to Victory for Bowling Green
-Matt Johnson is a vastly underrated QB because of the fact that he plays in the same conference as Jordan Lynch. His 162.4 passer rating is good for 10th in the nation (don't ask me how the NCAA figures out passer rating). He passed for 3,195 yards along with 23 TDs and 5 INTs.
-The defense has been elite this season and should provide problems for an inconsistent Panther offense. They rank 5th in the nation in scoring D (14.8 ppg) and 2nd in redzone efficiency.
-RB Travis Greene will face his toughest task of the season and should be considered the most important player on the field for Bowling Green. Greene had a stellar season with 1,555 yards rushing and 15 TDs. Johnson also can move the ball on the ground as he carried the ball 100 times and found the endzone 5 times rushing.
Prediction: Bowling Green is rightfully favored in this game even though they're conference top to bottom is weaker. They should eke out a victory over Pitt, but will have to establish that running game early if they want to do so.
Monday, December 23, 2013
Poinsettia Bowl: Northern Illinois vs Utah State
The Poinsettia Bowl features a pair of teams that had certainly been hoping for a more prestigious game early in the season. Northern Illinois was poised to bust the BCS again in the systems final season, needing only to win their conference championship game. Instead Bowling Green dashed those dreams and took the MAC title, sweeping away the Huskies BCS dreams and Jordan Lynch's Heisman chances. Utah State had their own Heisman darkhorse QB in Chuckie Keeton, an electrifying passer (69% completion rate, 18:2 touchdown to interceptions) before he went down in the first week of October with a knee injury.
When Keeton went down, the Aggies eventually turned to a freshman signal caller Darell Garretson. Garretson was able to complete 60% of his passes for 7.3 yards per attempt with nine touchdowns and just five interceptions. The freshman did stretch the field a bit, completing 16.7% of his passes for more than fifteen yards, and was able to convert 42.5% of his third down attempts. He had a big time receiver in Travis Reynolds, a 180 pound player that was well on his way to over 1000 yards before sustaining a knee injury against Colorado State. That injury will likely sideline him for the bowl game. Amongst the rest of the group there isnt a big name, as the team produced just 409 yards the last two games of the year, averaging just 11.3 yards per catch. The run game though is solid, as senior back Joey DeMartino has been able to pick up 5.4 yards per carry and find the endzone twelve times. He broke the century mark in half of the games this season, but has had a down last month averaging better than four yards per carry just once, against Wyoming.
For Northern Illinois, the big question has been can they generate enough through the passing game to make defenses play Jordan Lynch honestly. With Da'Ron Brown missing the conference championship game, the group averaged just 10.4 yards per catch, and just 7.8 and 11.9 the two previous weeks with Brown being hobbled. Tommylee LEwis has been held to three yards fewer per catch this year than in his sophomore campaign, despite already having more catches of 15 yards or more than he did last season. If Brown does not play in the bowl game, Juwan Brescacin is the best deep threat, with his 12 catches of fifteen yards or more. It will likely fall to Jordan Lynch on the ground, a place where he's averaged 6.9 yards per carry and has pounded in 22 touchdowns. Even against a tough Bowling Green defense he was able to find some space to run, picking up 4.9 yards per carry and scoring twice. Through November and December though, the running game has gone through Cameron Stingily The back has been all world as well, rushing for 5.6 yards per carry and breaking the 1000 yard mark. He's converted over half of his third down carries, and averages a healthy 3.6 yards per carry in the redzone.
The Aggies defense will provide a strong foil against the ground attack though for the Huskies. Theyve allowed just 2. 8 yards per carry this season, with no back rushing for over 3.7 yards per carry. Utah State hasnt allowed one hundred yards on the ground since the start of November, as Jake Doughty has recorded a whopping 140 tackles. He has 11.5 tackles for loss, and has also defended three passes. He and LB Zach Vigil have combined for more than 20 stops behind the line of scrimmage against the run; Vigil has also added 116 tackles overall. The pass defense though has been susceptible, allowing a 62% completion rate and defending just 12% of opponents passes. Northern Illinois on the other hand has been adept at stopping the pass, allowing just 53% completion rate and picking off 17 passes. Safety Jimmie Ward has six picks this season, and corner back Marlon Moore has defended 10 passes. They also have been able to recover 11 fumbles this year, leading to a +13 turnover margin
When Keeton went down, the Aggies eventually turned to a freshman signal caller Darell Garretson. Garretson was able to complete 60% of his passes for 7.3 yards per attempt with nine touchdowns and just five interceptions. The freshman did stretch the field a bit, completing 16.7% of his passes for more than fifteen yards, and was able to convert 42.5% of his third down attempts. He had a big time receiver in Travis Reynolds, a 180 pound player that was well on his way to over 1000 yards before sustaining a knee injury against Colorado State. That injury will likely sideline him for the bowl game. Amongst the rest of the group there isnt a big name, as the team produced just 409 yards the last two games of the year, averaging just 11.3 yards per catch. The run game though is solid, as senior back Joey DeMartino has been able to pick up 5.4 yards per carry and find the endzone twelve times. He broke the century mark in half of the games this season, but has had a down last month averaging better than four yards per carry just once, against Wyoming.
For Northern Illinois, the big question has been can they generate enough through the passing game to make defenses play Jordan Lynch honestly. With Da'Ron Brown missing the conference championship game, the group averaged just 10.4 yards per catch, and just 7.8 and 11.9 the two previous weeks with Brown being hobbled. Tommylee LEwis has been held to three yards fewer per catch this year than in his sophomore campaign, despite already having more catches of 15 yards or more than he did last season. If Brown does not play in the bowl game, Juwan Brescacin is the best deep threat, with his 12 catches of fifteen yards or more. It will likely fall to Jordan Lynch on the ground, a place where he's averaged 6.9 yards per carry and has pounded in 22 touchdowns. Even against a tough Bowling Green defense he was able to find some space to run, picking up 4.9 yards per carry and scoring twice. Through November and December though, the running game has gone through Cameron Stingily The back has been all world as well, rushing for 5.6 yards per carry and breaking the 1000 yard mark. He's converted over half of his third down carries, and averages a healthy 3.6 yards per carry in the redzone.
The Aggies defense will provide a strong foil against the ground attack though for the Huskies. Theyve allowed just 2. 8 yards per carry this season, with no back rushing for over 3.7 yards per carry. Utah State hasnt allowed one hundred yards on the ground since the start of November, as Jake Doughty has recorded a whopping 140 tackles. He has 11.5 tackles for loss, and has also defended three passes. He and LB Zach Vigil have combined for more than 20 stops behind the line of scrimmage against the run; Vigil has also added 116 tackles overall. The pass defense though has been susceptible, allowing a 62% completion rate and defending just 12% of opponents passes. Northern Illinois on the other hand has been adept at stopping the pass, allowing just 53% completion rate and picking off 17 passes. Safety Jimmie Ward has six picks this season, and corner back Marlon Moore has defended 10 passes. They also have been able to recover 11 fumbles this year, leading to a +13 turnover margin
This should be one of the better games of this bowl season, if just to watch whether or not the Huskies can break through the Aggies run defense. If Brown can play, his deep threat should open up some running lanes or Jordan Lynch will make Utah State pay. NIU has been able to keep three and outs down, with just 17.7% of all their drives ending that way, opposed to Utah State's 26.4%. The Huskies should be able to hit enough big plays to keep things interesting, and the defense should be able to get the Freshman to make a few mistakes. Take NIU -1.5.
Hawaii Bowl: Oregon State vs. Boise State
Matchup: Oregon State vs. Boise State
Line: Oregon State -3. Total 65.5
The Hawaii Bowl's plot has certainly thickened as Boise QB Joe Southwick has been suspended from the game. He's supposedly taking a polygraph test right now to clear his name, but the Broncos will certainly take a hit if he's not cleared to play. Bob Gregory will be the Interim Coach for Boise as Chris Petersen has moved on to the University of Washington.
Keys to Victory for Oregon State
-Sean Mannion - Mannion saw himself emerge as a possible Heisman candidate as he got off to a torrid start to his season. He threw for 2,992 yards with 29 TDs and 3 INTs during the teams 6-1 start. It's clear just how much he means to this team as he threw for 7 TDs and 11 INTs during the teams 0-5 stumble down the back stretch of the season.
-Brandin Cooks - Cooks won the Biletnikoff Award this season with 1,672 yards receiving to go with his 15 TDs on the year. Cooks and Mannion are true NFL caliber talents and need a strong game to propel this Beavers offense.
-Oregon State's defense was nothing to write about this season. They're arguably the worst bunch among all the bowl teams after allowing 32 points and 482 yards per game. Perhaps the worst of all stats is that they're allowing opponents to score 93.2% in the red zone. It's no secret that they will be needed to come up with at least an average performance.
Keys to Victory for Boise State
-Obviously Joe Southwick not playing will be a big deal, but as the current betting line shows, this is still a game Boise State can win. Most of this is in part to Junior QB Grant Hedrick already having successful game experience. Hedrick passed for over 1,500 yards with 15 TDs and 5 INTs in the six games Southwick was injured in. Boise went 4-2 in those games.
-Jay Ajayi had fumbling issues early on in the season, but the big Sophomore had a great season with 1,328 yards rushing and 17 TDs. Ajayi was named onto the Mountain West first team.
-Defensive End Demarcus Lawrence will be looked at to disrupt the prolific OSU passing offense. Lawrence has 10.5 sacks, 19.5 TFL, and 3 forced fumbles on the year.
Prediction: Hedrick has proven to be a successful starting QB and should be able to move the ball against such a weak defense. Expect lots of scoring as Oregon State should have no problem scoring either.
Line: Oregon State -3. Total 65.5
The Hawaii Bowl's plot has certainly thickened as Boise QB Joe Southwick has been suspended from the game. He's supposedly taking a polygraph test right now to clear his name, but the Broncos will certainly take a hit if he's not cleared to play. Bob Gregory will be the Interim Coach for Boise as Chris Petersen has moved on to the University of Washington.
Keys to Victory for Oregon State
-Sean Mannion - Mannion saw himself emerge as a possible Heisman candidate as he got off to a torrid start to his season. He threw for 2,992 yards with 29 TDs and 3 INTs during the teams 6-1 start. It's clear just how much he means to this team as he threw for 7 TDs and 11 INTs during the teams 0-5 stumble down the back stretch of the season.
-Brandin Cooks - Cooks won the Biletnikoff Award this season with 1,672 yards receiving to go with his 15 TDs on the year. Cooks and Mannion are true NFL caliber talents and need a strong game to propel this Beavers offense.
-Oregon State's defense was nothing to write about this season. They're arguably the worst bunch among all the bowl teams after allowing 32 points and 482 yards per game. Perhaps the worst of all stats is that they're allowing opponents to score 93.2% in the red zone. It's no secret that they will be needed to come up with at least an average performance.
Keys to Victory for Boise State
-Obviously Joe Southwick not playing will be a big deal, but as the current betting line shows, this is still a game Boise State can win. Most of this is in part to Junior QB Grant Hedrick already having successful game experience. Hedrick passed for over 1,500 yards with 15 TDs and 5 INTs in the six games Southwick was injured in. Boise went 4-2 in those games.
-Jay Ajayi had fumbling issues early on in the season, but the big Sophomore had a great season with 1,328 yards rushing and 17 TDs. Ajayi was named onto the Mountain West first team.
-Defensive End Demarcus Lawrence will be looked at to disrupt the prolific OSU passing offense. Lawrence has 10.5 sacks, 19.5 TFL, and 3 forced fumbles on the year.
Prediction: Hedrick has proven to be a successful starting QB and should be able to move the ball against such a weak defense. Expect lots of scoring as Oregon State should have no problem scoring either.
Wednesday, December 18, 2013
New Orleans Bowl: UL Lafayette vs. Tulane
Rich Douglas
Matchup: UL Lafayette vs. Tulane
Line: Tulane -2.5. Total 49.5
Location: New Orleans, LA ~ Superdome
Louisiana State pride is on the line between two teams that should give their best efforts in New Orleans.
Keys to Victory for UL Lafayette
-At first glance, I thought that making UL Lafayette underdogs of any kind in this matchup was ridiculous. I then found out that star QB Terrance Broadway is listed as doubtful with a wrist injury. Sophomore QB Brooks Haack may be looked at to take over for the Rajun Cajuns. The difference in winning and losing will likely come down to the way Haack responds to starting duties.
-Justin Anderson is an absolute beast of a linebacker. He has 124 tackles on the season which is good for 12th in the nation, and leads an underrated aggressive Defense.
-Broadway is a big part of the running game that averages 206 yards per game, but Alonso Harris and Elijah McGuire will have to carry the load as Haack is more of a pro style QB. Harris and McGuire both eclipsed 800 yards and combined for 20 TDs. McGuire is the more explosive back and is averaging nearly 9 yards per carry on 92 rushes.
Keys to Victory for Tulane
-Nick Montana will have to be more accurate. Montana's biggest knock is that while he has a big arm, he just hasn't shown the accuracy necessary to become a big time QB. He's only completing 53% of his passes while gaining 5.7 Yards/Attempt due to the low completion rate.
-Lorenzo Doss is tied for second in the nation in interceptions with 7, and is the leader of a defense that has put together some nice performances. Doss was named a second team All-American last week.
-Speaking of defense, they'll likely have to do what they've been doing all season. Limit rushing yards allowed. They're 16th in the nation allowing just 120 yards per game, and are 22nd in scoring defense with 21 points allowed per game. Remove an outlying loss to Syracuse where they allowed 52 points early in the season and you're looking at a team allowing under 20 points per game.
-Senior DE Julius Warmsley and LB Nico Marley made the All-Conference USA first team and have disrupted backfields all season.
Outcome: Tulane is 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games, and 9-3 overall on the season. They've largely exceeded expectations due to their defense. If Broadway were starting, UL Lafayette would have the clear advantage, but because he's out, there is a lot of uncertainty as to the outcome of this game.
Matchup: UL Lafayette vs. Tulane
Line: Tulane -2.5. Total 49.5
Location: New Orleans, LA ~ Superdome
Louisiana State pride is on the line between two teams that should give their best efforts in New Orleans.
Keys to Victory for UL Lafayette
-At first glance, I thought that making UL Lafayette underdogs of any kind in this matchup was ridiculous. I then found out that star QB Terrance Broadway is listed as doubtful with a wrist injury. Sophomore QB Brooks Haack may be looked at to take over for the Rajun Cajuns. The difference in winning and losing will likely come down to the way Haack responds to starting duties.
-Justin Anderson is an absolute beast of a linebacker. He has 124 tackles on the season which is good for 12th in the nation, and leads an underrated aggressive Defense.
-Broadway is a big part of the running game that averages 206 yards per game, but Alonso Harris and Elijah McGuire will have to carry the load as Haack is more of a pro style QB. Harris and McGuire both eclipsed 800 yards and combined for 20 TDs. McGuire is the more explosive back and is averaging nearly 9 yards per carry on 92 rushes.
Keys to Victory for Tulane
-Nick Montana will have to be more accurate. Montana's biggest knock is that while he has a big arm, he just hasn't shown the accuracy necessary to become a big time QB. He's only completing 53% of his passes while gaining 5.7 Yards/Attempt due to the low completion rate.
-Lorenzo Doss is tied for second in the nation in interceptions with 7, and is the leader of a defense that has put together some nice performances. Doss was named a second team All-American last week.
-Speaking of defense, they'll likely have to do what they've been doing all season. Limit rushing yards allowed. They're 16th in the nation allowing just 120 yards per game, and are 22nd in scoring defense with 21 points allowed per game. Remove an outlying loss to Syracuse where they allowed 52 points early in the season and you're looking at a team allowing under 20 points per game.
-Senior DE Julius Warmsley and LB Nico Marley made the All-Conference USA first team and have disrupted backfields all season.
Outcome: Tulane is 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games, and 9-3 overall on the season. They've largely exceeded expectations due to their defense. If Broadway were starting, UL Lafayette would have the clear advantage, but because he's out, there is a lot of uncertainty as to the outcome of this game.
Las Vegas Bowl: USC vs. Fresno State
Rich Douglas
Matchup: USC vs. Fresno State
Line: USC -6.5. Total 62
Location: Las Vegas, NV ~ Sam Boyd Stadium
The Las Vegas Bowl features a matchup between two top 25 teams heading in different directions. USC will be without former Interim Coach Ed Orgeron after they opted to go with Steve Sarkisian to run the program. The Trojans still seem to have a ton of momentum now that the team is healthy and the defense is performing to their potential. Fresno State came one win away from earning a BCS at-large bid, but their defense let them down against a middling San Jose State team. Even so, Derek Carr is one of the most talented Quarterbacks in the country and will look to cap his college career with a win.
Keys to Victory for USC
-Their solid secondary needs to have continued success. They're only giving up 214 yards through the air per game in a conference that loves to air out the ball.
-Silas Redd is out. Davorious Allen will have to shoulder the load for a running game that needs to support Cody Kessler.
-Marquise Lee will be looking to make a statement in this game. He'll certainly have a good shot at doing so against a terrible Bulldog secondary.
-Nelson Agholor is an excellent return man and will likely exploit a struggling special teams squad.
Keys to Victory for Fresno State
-The Bulldogs lead the nation with 73 passing plays of over 20 yards. Derek Carr and Davante Adams are the obvious stars on this offense and will have to have a big game against the best secondary they'll see all year.
-They're giving up 278 yards per game through the air. This can't happen against USC if they expect to win.The secondary is terrible, we know that. So Kyrie Wilson and Derron Smith to pressure the QB. For as disappointing as the defense has been, they recorded an impressive 8 sacks last week against Utah State to win the Mountain West Championship.
Prediction: I don't think this will be a shootout that Fresno State will be accustomed to. It's hard to determine whether or not USC will be amped up for this game after losing their beloved Coach O, but they should be able to pull out a victory if they remain focused.
Matchup: USC vs. Fresno State
Line: USC -6.5. Total 62
Location: Las Vegas, NV ~ Sam Boyd Stadium
The Las Vegas Bowl features a matchup between two top 25 teams heading in different directions. USC will be without former Interim Coach Ed Orgeron after they opted to go with Steve Sarkisian to run the program. The Trojans still seem to have a ton of momentum now that the team is healthy and the defense is performing to their potential. Fresno State came one win away from earning a BCS at-large bid, but their defense let them down against a middling San Jose State team. Even so, Derek Carr is one of the most talented Quarterbacks in the country and will look to cap his college career with a win.
Keys to Victory for USC
-Their solid secondary needs to have continued success. They're only giving up 214 yards through the air per game in a conference that loves to air out the ball.
-Silas Redd is out. Davorious Allen will have to shoulder the load for a running game that needs to support Cody Kessler.
-Marquise Lee will be looking to make a statement in this game. He'll certainly have a good shot at doing so against a terrible Bulldog secondary.
-Nelson Agholor is an excellent return man and will likely exploit a struggling special teams squad.
Keys to Victory for Fresno State
-The Bulldogs lead the nation with 73 passing plays of over 20 yards. Derek Carr and Davante Adams are the obvious stars on this offense and will have to have a big game against the best secondary they'll see all year.
-They're giving up 278 yards per game through the air. This can't happen against USC if they expect to win.The secondary is terrible, we know that. So Kyrie Wilson and Derron Smith to pressure the QB. For as disappointing as the defense has been, they recorded an impressive 8 sacks last week against Utah State to win the Mountain West Championship.
Prediction: I don't think this will be a shootout that Fresno State will be accustomed to. It's hard to determine whether or not USC will be amped up for this game after losing their beloved Coach O, but they should be able to pull out a victory if they remain focused.
Tuesday, December 17, 2013
Beef O Brady Bowl: East Carolina vs Ohio
The Pirates of East Carolina had a five game win streak get snapped by Marshall in the last game of the season to miss an opportunity to travel to the Conference USA title game for the first time since 2009. They'll be looking to get to double digit wins for the first time since 1991 against a disappointing Ohio squad. The Bobcats got outscored in the first three weeks of November 123-16, and averaged just 28 points a game,
The problem for the Bobcats this season has been an anemic running game. Theyve had five games where theyve rushed for less than ninety yards, and seven times failed to rush for four yards per attempt. Beau Blankenship is averaging about a half yard less per carry, largely because of second half struggles where he's picking up just 3.7 yards per carry. Backfield mate Ryan Boykin has been just as ineffective, averaging just 3.9 yards per carry, and despite averaging 3.1 yards per carry in the redzone, he's converted just two of his seven third and short attempts. Its also hurt that Tyler Tettleton hasn't been able to run as freely, with just 39 attempts all season opposed to his 120 carries last season (where he averaged 2 yards per carry to just .3 this season). The Norman Oklahoma QB has been just about as efficient this season through the air though, completing 63.1% of his passes for 7.9 yards per attempt with just nine picks. Chase Cochran is the most explosive weapon this offense has, averaging 20.5 yards per catch while picking up 15 first downs. Donte Foster has been a first down machine though, converting 60.8% of his catches into first downs.
The Pirates have also struggled this season to run the ball, averaging just 3.7 yards per carry. This, despite Vintavious Cooper averaging 4.9 yards per attempt. Cooper has converted 70% of his third and short carries, and has scored on 16% of his redzone carries. The offense though does flow through the air with Shane Carden directing the aerial assault. Carden has completed 71% of his passes this season with a better than three to one touchdown to interception ratio, and has made his money on third downs by completing 70% of his passes and converting 47.7% of those passes. Nineteen players have caught a pass for the pirates this season, but Justin Hardy has lead the group with his 105 catches and 1218 yards. He's an excellent red zone target, with six touchdowns on fourteen receptions.
The Ohio pass defense has not been stellar this season. Theyve given up 7.4 yards per pass attempt, and 22 touchdowns through the air. They have picked off 14 passes, and their best player is Devin Bass. The Omaha native defended 13 passes, and picked off another two to go with his 36 tackles. Theyve also been vulnerable to the run, surrendering 4.4 yards per carry. Leading tackler Ben Russell has 82 stops, 7.5 of them for loss. The Pirates on the other hand have been superb on the defensive side of the ball. Theyve allowed just 3.3 yards per carry, thanks to Derrell Johnson and his 78 tackles, 12.5 of them for loss to go with 6.5 sacks and eight QB hurries. East Carolina has defended 13.6% of the passes thrown against them, with Damon Magazu picking off four passes. Magazu has also ranked second on the team with 75 tackles. The only place the Pirates have not surpassed the Bobcats really is their inability to rush the passer consoistently.
Bill Connely's F/+ system ranks this game as what should be the most lopsided game this bowl season. The early line is East Carolina by a pair of touchdowns. Its not difficult to imagine this happening, the Pirates are just better in every phase of the game, and haven't been flailing for the past month against conference opponents. A huge spread though is tough to lay in unpredictable bowl season. If there is a play the over is probably safer.
The Pirates have also struggled this season to run the ball, averaging just 3.7 yards per carry. This, despite Vintavious Cooper averaging 4.9 yards per attempt. Cooper has converted 70% of his third and short carries, and has scored on 16% of his redzone carries. The offense though does flow through the air with Shane Carden directing the aerial assault. Carden has completed 71% of his passes this season with a better than three to one touchdown to interception ratio, and has made his money on third downs by completing 70% of his passes and converting 47.7% of those passes. Nineteen players have caught a pass for the pirates this season, but Justin Hardy has lead the group with his 105 catches and 1218 yards. He's an excellent red zone target, with six touchdowns on fourteen receptions.
The Ohio pass defense has not been stellar this season. Theyve given up 7.4 yards per pass attempt, and 22 touchdowns through the air. They have picked off 14 passes, and their best player is Devin Bass. The Omaha native defended 13 passes, and picked off another two to go with his 36 tackles. Theyve also been vulnerable to the run, surrendering 4.4 yards per carry. Leading tackler Ben Russell has 82 stops, 7.5 of them for loss. The Pirates on the other hand have been superb on the defensive side of the ball. Theyve allowed just 3.3 yards per carry, thanks to Derrell Johnson and his 78 tackles, 12.5 of them for loss to go with 6.5 sacks and eight QB hurries. East Carolina has defended 13.6% of the passes thrown against them, with Damon Magazu picking off four passes. Magazu has also ranked second on the team with 75 tackles. The only place the Pirates have not surpassed the Bobcats really is their inability to rush the passer consoistently.
Bill Connely's F/+ system ranks this game as what should be the most lopsided game this bowl season. The early line is East Carolina by a pair of touchdowns. Its not difficult to imagine this happening, the Pirates are just better in every phase of the game, and haven't been flailing for the past month against conference opponents. A huge spread though is tough to lay in unpredictable bowl season. If there is a play the over is probably safer.
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