The Bulldogs this season struggled mightily on the road, going just 1-4. It didnt help that of those five games, all our losses came against teams ranked in the top 25, including Auburn and Alabama. Dan Mullen's squad though was able to eke out six wins, thanks in large part to a dramatic comeback in the Egg Bowl on Thanksgiving. The Rice Owls were able to capture a C-USA title this year, meaning that they had on nine of their last ten games. The Owls did it this year by grinding the ball and hitting big plays at the opportune times.
Mississippi State's offense this year held quite a bit of uncertainty at the QB position, with three players attempting at least 45 passes. Senior Tyler Russell missed time with a shoulder injury, and will miss the bowl game after undergoing surgery to repair a torn labrum. Dak Prescott so the most time as the signal caller, but wasnt super efficient. Prescott completed 58.2% of his passes for just 6.9 yards per attempt, while throwing only seven touchdowns to seven interceptions. Prescott though made up for it with his legs, averaging 6.3 yards per carry, and finding the end zone eleven times. A big reason for the disparity would be the overall poor play of the offensive line in pass protection. They allowed pressures on 18.7% of the Bulldogs dropbacks, with 53 hurries allowed. Jameon Lewis is the most consistent receiving threat, hauling in 55 passes for 703 yards. On the ground, LaDarius Perkins took the most carries at 124, but averaged just at four yards per carry. The Mississippi State offense though was able to go three and out on just 16.3% of their drives, and they totaled 33.1 yards per drive. Part of it was a nice 16.3% big play rate, but the offense really depends on Dak Prescott running wild and making plays.
The Rice passing game was not very good. Somehow Taylor McHargue was able to remain the starter all season, despite completing only 52.1% of his passes. He did not eclipse the three hundred yard mark passing this season, and had a pair of games throwing for under 100 yards. He did have 17.8% of his passes go for more than fifteen yards, but the offensive line allowed the signal callers to be sacked 33 times. It was these big plays though that allowed Rice to keep throwing the ball. Jordan Taylor and Dennis Parks combined for over 1300 yards, and 11 touchdowns. Taylor averaged 16.7 yards per catch on his team high 54 catches, while Dennis Parks was the down field threat, averaging 18.1 yards per catch. The big back though Charles Ross is what moves this Rice offense. Ross has averaged 6.2 yards per carry this season, and has moved the chains on 29% of his carries. He has 39 runs of ten yards or more, and has averaged 5.6 yards per carry in the red zone.
The Rice defense has been solid all season, allowing 5.2 yards per play on offense, and 22.9 points per game. The run defense has been particularly good in the second halves of games, where theyve held opponents to just 3.4 yards per carry with just 23 runs of ten yards or more. Theyve only recorded 66 tackles for loss on the season though, just 7.4% of the snaps against them. Michael Kuzler lead the defense with 86 tackles. He had six tackles for loss, good for third on the team. Rice was able to shut down passing games almost completely though, despite pressuring QBs on just 10.4% of their dropbacks. Cody Bauer and Christian Covington combined for just 8.5 sacks and 8 more hurries to lead the team in both categories. This has left a lot of work for the secondary, who did defend 14.3% of the passes thrown against them. CB Bryce Callahan was abel to defend ten passes this season, to go with 32 tackles and another three interceptions.
Mississippi State posted a tackle for loss on 8.9% of their defensive snaps, part of the reason why the defense gave up 5.6 yards per play this season, and 4.4 per run. The run defense gave up a lot of yards, but really didnt give up many touchdwons on the ground. Besides a poor effort against LSU who had 6 rushing scores, but allowed just 10 more the rest of the season. 46 players recorded a tackle for the Bulldogs this season, with Benardrick McKinney recording 69 to lead the team. The Bulldogs werent able to bring down opposing passers very often, recording just 16 sacks (lead by Chris Jones with 3). They did hurry Qbs a lot though, recording 51 on the season. This lack of sacks did allow opposing passers to complete 62.4% of their passes for 7 yards per attempt. Jamerson Love lead the team with 6 pass breakups, and had three interceptions as well.
This is a pair of offenses that are both pretty solid at moving the ball and eating up clock. The total is just at 50.5, and with Mississippi State being somewhat weak against the run, Charles Ross could take advantage. The Bulldogs should be better than the Owls, but this game will be close throughout.
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