If not for an ill fated night in Stillwater, Baylor likely would have been playing in the National Title game instead of the Fiesta Bowl this season. A pair of offensive miscues at the goal line forced that, but Baylor was able to capture a Big 12 title. That game against OSU was the sole time this season they failed to score 30 points, and just one of three times they had a negative turnover margin. The Knights of Central Florida were able to crash into the BCS by upsetting Louisville and losing just n the last second to South Carolina. They're lead by possible top five pick Blake Bortles, a junior that took huge strides this season.
The Bears offense this year was basically unstoppable this year. They averaged 53.3 points per game, and well over 500 yards per game. The spread attack was orchestrated by Bryce Petty, who this season completed 61.8% of his passes for 10.8 yards per attempt with 30 touchdowns and threw just a pair of interceptions. He however struggled down the stretch, completing just 53.8% of his passes in November, and averaged 7.7 yards per attempt. He did only throw one interception in that span, but the sharp decline in numbers is a cause for concern. He did lose one of his top wideouts during that stretch in Tevin Reese, a player who averaged a ridiculous 25 yards per catch, who will be back and should be fully healthy for this bowl game. In Reese's absence, Antwan Goodley became the go to target, averaging his own ridiculous average of 19.7 yards per reception. Goodley had 28 receptions of more than 15 yards, and went 17-19 on converting his third down receptions. The gawdy stats for the passing game though were set up by the run game, which went through three very good backs. The three headed monster of Lache Seastrunk, Shock Linwood and Glasco Martin gave fits to just about every defense they faced, as the run game averaged 5.4 yards per carry and had 101 runs of more than ten yards. They converted nearly 60% of their third and short runs, and picked up a healthy 3.7 yards per carry in the redzone with 33 touchdowns. The offensive line was a wall most of the season, allowing just a 10.2% pressure rate and a tackle for loss on just 6.3% of their plays.
Blake Bortles has moved up draft boards this season to possibly being the top QB taken in April if he declares. He'll want to go out on a high not for a season that has been pretty stellar after he completed 68.1% of his passes for 9.3 yards per attempt. He hit 74 passes of more than fifteen yards, and completed more than 65% of his passes in the maroon zone. The man he went to for the big plays was Breshad Perriman, a sophomore wideout that averaged 21.2 yards per catch and scored three times. Rannell Hall lead the team with 53 receptions, and averaged 14.6 yards per catch, while JJ Worton was the redzone target with 7 touchdowns on his 42 catches, with a 15.8 yards per catch mark. The run game went through Storm Johnson, a 215 pound back that averaged 5.3 yards per carry and scored eleven times en route to a 1000 yard season. He went 9-13 in third and short situations, and had 28 runs of more than ten yards.
Johnson wasnt able t find the endzone very often the last two months after scoring 7 times in August and September.
The Baylor defense got after teams just as much as the offense, recording a tackle for loss rate of 10.4%, and allowing just 4.5 yards per play. Eddie Lackey lead the team with 97 tackles, 13 of them for loss and added seven QB hurries to go with a pair of interceptions. His play, along with DE Shawn Oakman who had 10 tackle for loss against the run game lead to teams averaging just 3.3 yards per carry. They harassed opposing passers as well, pressuring them on 20.5% of their pass attempts this season. Thanks to that, QBs were able to only complete 46.9% of their passes and averaged just 6.1 yards per attempt. The passing game only converted 28.4% of their third downs, with Demtri Goodson defending 13 passes and KJ Morton another 10. Morton had three interceptions as well to pace the team.
The Knights defense allowed 5.2 yards per play, and just 19.6 points per game. They also were able to stop teams once they got to the redzone, allowing just a 71.9% conversion rate for teams. UCF recorded 77 tackles for loss this season, lead by Terrance Plummer. The linebacker posted 96 tackles while also breaking up six passes. Thats far below Jacoby Glenn though, the defensive back that defended fifteen passes and intercepted a pair of passes. That play helped keep opposing aerial attacks to just 6.4 yards per play and only eleven touchdowns. The run defense was very good down the stretch, keep their last three opponents to sub 100 yard games. South Carolina, Penn State, and Losuiville did however each run for over 100 yards and more than 4 yards per carry with multiple touchdowns each.
Baylor tripped over themselves in Stillwater against a very good OK State team, otherwise they would haven ended the year undefeated. They should be able to beat the Knights handily, but if they have any miscues it will not be by the 17.5 points theyre favored by.
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