Sunday, December 29, 2013

Heart of Dallas Bowl: UNLV vs North Texas

UNLV and North Texas will square off in the Heart of Dallas bowl, with both teams already guaranteed to their first winning season in the last seven seasons.  Both teams featured offenses that could score, averaging over 31 points a game.  They were within a tenth of a yard in yards per play attempt. the Mean Green edging out the Rebels 5.6 to 5.5 yards per play on offense.

UNLV can look to Caleb herring for the improved offensive output, as the senior signal caller completed 64.3% of his passes for 6.9 yards per attempt.  He also limited turnovers, tossing just four interceptions while throwing for 22 touchdowns.  He did struggle on third downs, completing only 56.7% of his passes, but played well when the games were close, averaging 8.1 yards per attempt  and completing 65.5% of his passes.  The receivers werent able to make a lot of plays after the catch, earning just 10.5 yards per catch.  Devante Davis though is a big threat, leading the team with 77 catches and 1194 yards and hauling in 14 touchdown receptions.  Davis went 11-13 on third down catches, and had 23 receptions of more than 15 yards.  The run game was paced by Tim Cornett, who had four 100 yard games while averaging 5 yards per carry.  He also found the endzone 15 times, and converted 10 of hsi 14 third and short carries.  Shaquille Murray-Lawrence is a big play threat, totaling 418 yards on just 47 carries this season.  The offensive line was good all around, allowing just a  5.6% pressure rate to go with the solid run game.

The Mean Green had Derek Thompson throwing it around for them, completing 63.9% of his passes for 7.3 yards per attempt.  He was not nearly as careful with the football though, throwing 13 interceptions to just 14 touchdowns.  Most of those turnovers came when the game was tight as well, with 10 picks to just 5 touchdowns when the game was within 7 points.  Brellan Chancellor averaged 15.3 yards per catch for North Texas with his 47 receptions.  Darnell Smith though came just two yards shy of leading the team in both catches and yards, averaging just 11 yard per catch.  The run game went to Brandin Byrd and Antoinne Jimmerson, the pair picking up 1451 yards and 17 touchdowns.  The pair combined to convert over half of their third and short carries as well.  The offense overall picked up 30.8 yards per drive, and went three and out on just 19.5% of their drives.

The UNLV defense could not stop the run at all.  They allowed 5.2 yards per carry, and held only San Diego State to under 100 yards rushing while allowing 6 games of more than 200 yards on the ground.  It wasnt big plays that did them in, just a steady stream of five and six yard runs.  They recorded a tackle for a loss on just 7.5% of their plays, lead by Tani Maka who had a team high 6.5.  He was also the leading tackler in the front seven, with 87 stops.  The secondary was the best unit, allowing just a 51.5% completion rate and just 6.5 yards per attempt.  They defended 13.5% of the passes against them, with Frank Crawford picking off four passes.  They did this despite generate pressure on just 5% of opponents' dropbacks.


North Texas was lead by Zach Orr on defense, who totaled 113 stops, 11 of them for loss. Overall the team had just an 8.8% tackle for loss rate, allowing just 3.8 yards per carry in the running game.  They did give up several big plays, allowing 54 runs of 10 yards or more.  But in the redzone they allowed just 1.1 yards per carry, and only ten rushing touchdowns all season.  They did a good job getting after opposing passers, pressuring on 14.4% of their dropbacks, paced by 7.5 sacks from Aaron Bellazin.  This pressure helped North Texas get 17 interceptions, and a sub 60% completion rate from opposing passers.

North Texas has a solid enough run game to find pace against the porous Rebels run defense.  They also have a defense that is steady enough to keep the UNLV passing attack in check.  Take UNT -6.5.



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