Justin Verlander is as Effective as Felix Doubront

Rich Douglas

This isn't the first article trying to figure out what's happened to Justin Verlander, and it certainly won't be the last. The Tigers Ace has struggled for much of this season and may finish with an ERA above 4.00 for only the second time in his career.

As it stands right now, Verlander is 10-8 with an ERA of 3.99. Not bad at all, but certainly not meeting the expectations that we're used to from the former MVP and Cy Young award winner. Just about all of his stats closely resemble Boston Red Sox (not) ace Felix Doubront who is having a great season himself. It's incredible how that is, I suppose most of it has to do with the amount of money they're making, but their stats are the same. Yet the former is having a terrible season and the latter is having a great season. A lot of it also has to do with with gambling, Verlander is a favorite just about every time he goes out while Doubront is getting favorable prices. I realize I'm stating the obvious, but it's just interesting to look at. Verlander's ERA/FIP/xFIP splits are 3.99/3.41/3.77 while Doubront's are 3.77/3.51/3.90. Both guys are 2 games over .500. They strikeout about 8 guys and walk about 3 guys every 9 innings. JV's (can I call him JV?) BABIP is a high .330....let me save that for later.

Anyways, there are a few reasons why JV has seen a drop-off in production, but none of them are conclusive in completely pin pointing the problem.

Reason 1: He doesn't throw as hard.
-Just 2 seasons ago, he was throwing his fastball at an average velocity of 95mph. This season he's at about 92.8 mph. Personally, I don't think this is the problem. Verlander is well known for starting off games with a low velocity and getting stronger and stronger as the game goes on. What does that tell me? that he's pretty damn good regardless of how hard he's throwing as long as he's keeping hitters off balance.

Reason 2: He's not keeping hitters off balance.
-What do I mean by that? A couple things, really. His swinging strike % of 9.9 is a drop-off from his previous 2 seasons of 10.2 and 11.7% respectively, but that probably isn't a major contributor to his high ERA due to the fact that that's still a high % and right in line with his career %. However, hitters are seeing more of his pitchers and are still not being fooled at the same rate that they have been in the past 2 seasons.

Reason 3: Higher walk rate
-This likely has the greatest significance so far in the article. He's walking 3.33 men per 9 innings. That's almost an extra guy reaching base every time he goes out. Believe it or not, that's enough to screw up someone's ERA, but I have to admit that it's not enough to cause a spike like this.

Reason 4: Mechanical problems!!!
-It's hard to believe that such an accomplished veteran like Verlander could be having mechanical problems after pitching with success for so long. Neil Weinberg lays it out pretty well, but if you're looking for the cliffnotes: Verlander is having much less movement on his pitches. His fastball is slower, but more importantly, it doesn't pop through the zone like it used to. His curveball is suffering as well. Is there an injury? maybe. His release points this year greatly differ from the previous years. Regardless of what it is, it's not good. A mechanical flaw is the more desired problem, of course, but why hasn't it been fixed yet? Who knows. So what exactly is happening to the balls that used to pop through the zone and make hitters look stupid?

Reason 5: High BABIP and higher Line Drive Percentage!!!
-I don't know why I've suddenly decided to use exclamation points. If you don't know what BABIP is let me direct you to this PAGE. Alright, those balls that used to get through the zone are obviously being put in play. Verlander has arguably had a bit of bad luck since his BABIP is .330, much higher than his career average of .288. What is startling though is the fact that his line drive percentage is sitting at nearly 23% which is nearly 3% higher than his career average of 20.2. Last season, he had a similar LD%, but it wasn't coupled with his increase in walks and his bad luck BABIP. Much of this can't be blamed on bad luck however, Verlander clearly isn't the same pitcher this year. High walks, lower swings and misses, harder hit balls allowed. The higher BABIP is just magnifying the situation.

So why did this all happen? It's possible that his arm seems to be tiring out from all the labor he's put in. It could certainly be what's causing his change in release points and lower velocity. Like I said earlier, I'd be much more worried about the lack of movement in his pitches than the velocity. I can't come to a complete conclusion, but I can't help but think that he's not an elite pitcher anymore. This is crazy talk, I mean the guy is 2 years removed from an MVP and Cy Young, and was the Cy Young runner up last season, but the evidence is there. If this is some mechanical flaw, then he'll bounce back from it. If it's not, then it's certainly worrisome for Tigers fans.

Why Can't I Ever Get Lucky?

By: Rich Douglas

We're going to open up the second half of the season with a new segment of the blog called "Why Can't I Ever Get Lucky?" I've been documented in successfully exposing the crappiness of certain pitchers (i.e Vogelsong, Hellickson, Wade Davis), and while it's not a perfect science (see: Satan Cueto) I will continue my crusade here.


I always want to call Lefty Jeff Locke, John Locke. Maybe it's because John Locke was a lefty himself...but in a political sense as he's revered as one of the first classic Liberal thinkers. Then I realize it's not only because of their obvious similar names, but because Jeff Locke should be a fairly insignificant figure in the MLB. He's like that guy at the office who I always called Karl only to find out 3 months later that his name isn't Karl (I still have no idea what the hell his name is). Anyways, Jeff Locke should be "Karl" from the office. Solid body who works hard, but is easily replaceable. Sorry Karl.

Locke finished the first half with stellar statistics. He's 8-2 with a 2.15 ERA in 18 starts. He's done an excellent job keeping the ball down as his ground ball ratio is 52.3%. Locke has also done a great job preventing the long ball allowing just 6 home runs in 108 innings pitched.

The peripherals just don't show any reason for the 25 year old to keep this pace up. His BABIP is a miniscule .228 which is ridiculously low for his career. He's got an excellent defense behind him, but Locke has always projected as a high .280 to .310 BABIP pitcher. His season low BABIP in the minors was .296 and he had a BABIP of .300 or higher in his other 5 seasons down in the farm. He also has been walking batters at a fairly high ratio. At nearly 4 walks per 9 innings, one has to assume that many of those batters will start touching home plate due to the fact that his LOB % of 83.3% is also unsustainable. Why is it not possible for him to continue leaving over 80% of runners on base? Well, for one you're batshit crazy for even asking that question. If you need an answer though, look no further than Justin Verlander. Even with his high strikeout ratio, Verlander has stranded 73.9% of runners in his career. Locke strikes out 33% fewer batters than Verlander (6 K/9), but has managed to wiggle out of far greater danger.

I could go on, but I think you get the picture. Does this make me a terrible person? I'm trying to tear this man's image down. I guess I'm kind of jealous. I don't get too lucky. I'm like the Josh Johnson of the bar scene, but I swear to god Jeff Locke isn't all that great. Go home, you're all just drunk!

Look for Locke to regress to an ERA of around 3.00-3.25 by the end of the season. That's obviously still a great season for a first year full time pitcher, but you might be able to find some favorable prices against him.

AL West Prospect Update

by Rich Douglas 

We continue our prospect update with the AL West, which is a hot bed of talent at the shortstop position, starting with the Astros top prospect.

Carlos Correa - Houston Astros - SS
Correa moved up to the A level after spending the previous two at the Rookie league level.  The 19 year old has been posting a .403 wOBA in his 69 games this year.  In his last 10, he's posted a 1.049 OPS, with just a single strike out.  He's increased both his walk rate to 12%, and decreased his strike out rate to 16.2%.  His ability to continue rallies by getting on base with runners in scoring position is underscored by his .562 OBP.  The only underlying problem could be a .384 BABIP, which suggests Carlos is getting somewhat lucky in getting to the basepaths.  Defensively, he does also have 10 errors in 69 games.


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NL East Prospect Update

by Rich Douglas 

We continue our prospect update with the NL East, headlined by several top of the order pitching prospects.

Jose Fernandez - Miami Marlins - SP
Fernandez made a large jump this year, after spending all his previous seasons in the various A levele leagues, he started the seaosn with the Major League club.  The move has paid of, as Fernandez has started 16 games and lasted just under 6 innings per start.  His ERA is just 2.72, with just a 3.02 FIP.  He;s done it by throwing strikes consistently, with a 63% first pitch strike rate, and overall 65% of his pitches have been strikes.  He's induced an 8.8% swinging strike rate, leading to a 25.7% strike out rate.  The only concern going forward is his BABIP is just .247, so he's defintely getting a little lucky on the balls that batters are able to get in touch with.

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AL Central Prospect Update

By: Rich Douglas

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Its almost the midway point of the MLB season, and so its time to review the performance of some of the top prospects in the game.

Chuck Edel's 36 day winning record!

post by: Chris Allen


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For 36 days in ALL plays he has a 59% winning Record and is PLUS 31.7 UNITS!!

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