Why Can't I Ever Get Lucky?

By: Rich Douglas

We're going to open up the second half of the season with a new segment of the blog called "Why Can't I Ever Get Lucky?" I've been documented in successfully exposing the crappiness of certain pitchers (i.e Vogelsong, Hellickson, Wade Davis), and while it's not a perfect science (see: Satan Cueto) I will continue my crusade here.


I always want to call Lefty Jeff Locke, John Locke. Maybe it's because John Locke was a lefty himself...but in a political sense as he's revered as one of the first classic Liberal thinkers. Then I realize it's not only because of their obvious similar names, but because Jeff Locke should be a fairly insignificant figure in the MLB. He's like that guy at the office who I always called Karl only to find out 3 months later that his name isn't Karl (I still have no idea what the hell his name is). Anyways, Jeff Locke should be "Karl" from the office. Solid body who works hard, but is easily replaceable. Sorry Karl.

Locke finished the first half with stellar statistics. He's 8-2 with a 2.15 ERA in 18 starts. He's done an excellent job keeping the ball down as his ground ball ratio is 52.3%. Locke has also done a great job preventing the long ball allowing just 6 home runs in 108 innings pitched.

The peripherals just don't show any reason for the 25 year old to keep this pace up. His BABIP is a miniscule .228 which is ridiculously low for his career. He's got an excellent defense behind him, but Locke has always projected as a high .280 to .310 BABIP pitcher. His season low BABIP in the minors was .296 and he had a BABIP of .300 or higher in his other 5 seasons down in the farm. He also has been walking batters at a fairly high ratio. At nearly 4 walks per 9 innings, one has to assume that many of those batters will start touching home plate due to the fact that his LOB % of 83.3% is also unsustainable. Why is it not possible for him to continue leaving over 80% of runners on base? Well, for one you're batshit crazy for even asking that question. If you need an answer though, look no further than Justin Verlander. Even with his high strikeout ratio, Verlander has stranded 73.9% of runners in his career. Locke strikes out 33% fewer batters than Verlander (6 K/9), but has managed to wiggle out of far greater danger.

I could go on, but I think you get the picture. Does this make me a terrible person? I'm trying to tear this man's image down. I guess I'm kind of jealous. I don't get too lucky. I'm like the Josh Johnson of the bar scene, but I swear to god Jeff Locke isn't all that great. Go home, you're all just drunk!

Look for Locke to regress to an ERA of around 3.00-3.25 by the end of the season. That's obviously still a great season for a first year full time pitcher, but you might be able to find some favorable prices against him.