Justin Verlander is as Effective as Felix Doubront

Rich Douglas

This isn't the first article trying to figure out what's happened to Justin Verlander, and it certainly won't be the last. The Tigers Ace has struggled for much of this season and may finish with an ERA above 4.00 for only the second time in his career.

As it stands right now, Verlander is 10-8 with an ERA of 3.99. Not bad at all, but certainly not meeting the expectations that we're used to from the former MVP and Cy Young award winner. Just about all of his stats closely resemble Boston Red Sox (not) ace Felix Doubront who is having a great season himself. It's incredible how that is, I suppose most of it has to do with the amount of money they're making, but their stats are the same. Yet the former is having a terrible season and the latter is having a great season. A lot of it also has to do with with gambling, Verlander is a favorite just about every time he goes out while Doubront is getting favorable prices. I realize I'm stating the obvious, but it's just interesting to look at. Verlander's ERA/FIP/xFIP splits are 3.99/3.41/3.77 while Doubront's are 3.77/3.51/3.90. Both guys are 2 games over .500. They strikeout about 8 guys and walk about 3 guys every 9 innings. JV's (can I call him JV?) BABIP is a high .330....let me save that for later.

Anyways, there are a few reasons why JV has seen a drop-off in production, but none of them are conclusive in completely pin pointing the problem.

Reason 1: He doesn't throw as hard.
-Just 2 seasons ago, he was throwing his fastball at an average velocity of 95mph. This season he's at about 92.8 mph. Personally, I don't think this is the problem. Verlander is well known for starting off games with a low velocity and getting stronger and stronger as the game goes on. What does that tell me? that he's pretty damn good regardless of how hard he's throwing as long as he's keeping hitters off balance.

Reason 2: He's not keeping hitters off balance.
-What do I mean by that? A couple things, really. His swinging strike % of 9.9 is a drop-off from his previous 2 seasons of 10.2 and 11.7% respectively, but that probably isn't a major contributor to his high ERA due to the fact that that's still a high % and right in line with his career %. However, hitters are seeing more of his pitchers and are still not being fooled at the same rate that they have been in the past 2 seasons.

Reason 3: Higher walk rate
-This likely has the greatest significance so far in the article. He's walking 3.33 men per 9 innings. That's almost an extra guy reaching base every time he goes out. Believe it or not, that's enough to screw up someone's ERA, but I have to admit that it's not enough to cause a spike like this.

Reason 4: Mechanical problems!!!
-It's hard to believe that such an accomplished veteran like Verlander could be having mechanical problems after pitching with success for so long. Neil Weinberg lays it out pretty well, but if you're looking for the cliffnotes: Verlander is having much less movement on his pitches. His fastball is slower, but more importantly, it doesn't pop through the zone like it used to. His curveball is suffering as well. Is there an injury? maybe. His release points this year greatly differ from the previous years. Regardless of what it is, it's not good. A mechanical flaw is the more desired problem, of course, but why hasn't it been fixed yet? Who knows. So what exactly is happening to the balls that used to pop through the zone and make hitters look stupid?

Reason 5: High BABIP and higher Line Drive Percentage!!!
-I don't know why I've suddenly decided to use exclamation points. If you don't know what BABIP is let me direct you to this PAGE. Alright, those balls that used to get through the zone are obviously being put in play. Verlander has arguably had a bit of bad luck since his BABIP is .330, much higher than his career average of .288. What is startling though is the fact that his line drive percentage is sitting at nearly 23% which is nearly 3% higher than his career average of 20.2. Last season, he had a similar LD%, but it wasn't coupled with his increase in walks and his bad luck BABIP. Much of this can't be blamed on bad luck however, Verlander clearly isn't the same pitcher this year. High walks, lower swings and misses, harder hit balls allowed. The higher BABIP is just magnifying the situation.

So why did this all happen? It's possible that his arm seems to be tiring out from all the labor he's put in. It could certainly be what's causing his change in release points and lower velocity. Like I said earlier, I'd be much more worried about the lack of movement in his pitches than the velocity. I can't come to a complete conclusion, but I can't help but think that he's not an elite pitcher anymore. This is crazy talk, I mean the guy is 2 years removed from an MVP and Cy Young, and was the Cy Young runner up last season, but the evidence is there. If this is some mechanical flaw, then he'll bounce back from it. If it's not, then it's certainly worrisome for Tigers fans.