Conference Predictions

Sun Belt:  This conference really comes down to a one horse race. Louisiana Lafayette is the deepest squad in the conference after returning almost every major contributor from a year ago. Arkansas State should be the closest team but questions in the trenches and another coaching change should lead to the Ragin Cajuns walking through this one.

MAC: Ah #MACtion. Last year we missed out on seeing NIU play in a second consecutive BCS game when they got shellacked by Bowling Green in the title game. This year it's the Falcons that return the excellent QB and an experienced front. They should be able to reach the title game again fairly easily with their division currently on the downswing. NIU might have some trouble though in getting a grudge match, with a Toledo team that is deep in the trenches and Ball State lurking as well. Matt Johnson though should take the Falcons all the way though again this year.

MWC:  Boise State has been the most prolific mid major in the college football landscape since stealing a win against Oklahoma on that fateful night in Arizona. They've been able to maintain a spot near the top of that group despite coaching attrition and recruiting disadvantages. They'll return 9 defensive starters and some interesting pieces on offense but it will be very difficult without Chris Peterson to stay atop a group of talented teams in the Mountain. Fresno State even without a Carr at QB is a deep and talented squad while Utah State returns possibly the most exciting player in QB Chuckie Keeton. Boise likely has enough to stay on top but if Utah State's line can come together don't doubt them and a very solid defense.

American: The remnants of the Big East lost one of their premier schools to Conference defection when Louisville jumpeded ship leaving mote uncertainty atop the conference. UCF outgunned Baylor last year to cap their season but return without Blake Bortles or Storm Johnson and a new line. Houston is deeper and more experienced than last year but might see huge regression in turnover margin. Cincinnati has a wealth of offensive weapons but is breaking in a new QB and a new defensive secondary almost in entirety. UCF likely has too tough of a schedule so it's a toss up between Cinncy and Houston.

CUSA: This conference is interesting for who is the likely runner up. Marshall returns with of of the nation's best QBs on Rakeem Cato under center and a lot of experience everywhere else. In that next tier you have last year's champions Rice looking to repeat, a senior laden UTSA looking to continue its surge from program infancy and a Florida Atlantic squad that is also on the precipice after several years of strong recruiting. None of these teams has any real stars but they're all deep and could find themselves in a title hunt.

Big12: This whole off season the press has gone to Oklahoma. They did destroy Bama in the bowl game and they do get Baylor and OK State coming to Norman. But they also lose just about every skill position offensive player and have a few question marks in the secondary. This leaves the door open for reigning champ Baylor to snatch the title again. Bryce Petty still has plenty of targets left and the Baylor defensive front is terrifying. They should repeat as Champs. Lurking in the wings though is a still very strong OK state squad who could dark horse in if they survive a nightmare away schedule.

Pac12:  Stanford and Oregon are poised to continue to stand atop the conference. But this should be Oregon's year to reclaim the title. They'll return a majority of offensive star power and the defensive front is staffed by former four and five star recruits each entering their third year in the program. The defining reason might be though the loss of Derek Mason to Vandy.  It also doesn't help they'll only return 5 starters on offense. In the South UCLA and it's Heisman candidate QB Hundley are the presumed favorites. But USC has a real chance to slide into that title game if Cody Kessler keeps up his form from the stretch run of last year.

ACC: FSU is going to win the ACC. They're basically an NFL team lite. The only team in the conference that could possibly challenge them is Clemson and they get the Tigers at home. Across from them j  the title game could be almost anyone from the Coastal. Duke took a big jump forward but has a tough road slate while Miami and VT both have questions at QB and on offense.

Big Ten:With the loss of Braxton Miller the Buckeyes hopes of capturing a Big Ten title this year are likely sunk. With Miller they could have overcome the loss of talent at the skill positions and line. But coupled with needing to play at Michigan State it's probably Sparty's year again. The Spartans will need to replace several defensive standouts but the offense shouldn't be so pathetic either. In the West Wisconsin is leaps ahead of everyone else, and the Badgers should have the top running game in the nation. But an utterly abysmal passing game will keep them from a Rose Bowl trip.

SEC: With the Big Ten and Pac12 the SEC is likely to be the only conference that doesn't feature one team likely to just run away with the title. Alabama is the favorite in the West again. Lots of folks will forget that Bama was basically an insane fluke and too many turnovers from winning against both Auburn and OU. The Tigers will challenge again but the Tide are still fully loaded and should come back with a vengeance. Opposite them in the title game should likely come down to a very very deep South Carolina squad that replaces several of its stars, or a Georgia team that has some of the best positional talent in the country but with an untested offensive line

Into the playoff the most likely four teams will be FSU, Oregon, Alabama,  and Baylor. Baylor sneaks in thanks to a stronger conference brand than a Big Ten that will likely see some untimely upsets occur with how close in parity they are.

Defense Wins Championships

One of the oldest cliches in professional sports is that Offense puts people in the seats, but Defense wins championships.  With the NBA playoffs in full swing now, its as good a time as ever to examine how true it is for the league.  To see just what effect both play, we’ll start by looking at which teams make the playoffs versus those that don’t. 

From 2004-2012, the league average efficiency on both sides of the court averaged right around 107 points per 100 possessions.  The average that a team needed to hit offensively to be amongst contenders was 108.2, while teams that failed to qualify averaged in at 104.8.  These numbers are pretty close to their defensive counterparts (109 for non playoff teams, 104.6 for playoff qualifiers).  The below chart gives a pretty good overview of how league scoring has trended, with a rise until the 2008 season followed by a pretty sharp drop off

We do see the old cliché holding, with team’s that made the playoffs sporting a better than league average defensive rating at a statistically significant level.  We also though see these same teams holding a significant offensive edge over their less competitive peers.  To advance in the playoffs though, does it take being a grittier defensive team? 

The data says not particularly moreso than being a good offense.  Teams that advanced through the first round typically shared again the fact that they were superior to their opponents in both phases of the game.  During the studied period, the typical teams meeting in the championship also did not display a real difference between their offensive or defensive capabilities.  Both held well above league average offenses and defenses though.

So, it would seem that the mantra has some weight, as teams that were better than league average were more likely to make the playoffs.  However, they were not so much more likely than the teams that played superior offense to do so.  

2014 Kentucky Derby Thoughts

In a field of twenty elite three year olds, it's hard to narrow down exactly who you like. Let me try to do that.

California Chrome - The best horse in the field. Impressive win in the Santa Anita Derby, can press the pace but can also sit back and rally. Odds will likely be minuscule in a 20 horse field though.

Wicked Strong - The Wood Memorial winner. Has plenty in the tank to make a strong stretch run if he doesn't encounter too many traffic problems prior to that. Even so, he had to swing out wide in the Wood and had plenty left for the win.

Vicar's in Trouble - Draws the dreaded #1 spot. Louisiana Derby winner will likely be towards the front early. May tire out due to the fact that there is a ton of speed in this race which may press the pace too much for his liking.

Dance With Fate - Bluegrass winner has an impressive resume and plenty of momentum. The only knock on him is that all of his wins have come on a synthetic surface. Colt likes to come well off the pace and may rally late, but has too many question marks.

Wildcat Red - Was an unfortunate second in the Florida Derby. Constitution will not be running for the roses and "Red" has plenty of speed to win this race. A perfect trip by Javier Castellano in Florida was the main reason why Red did not get that win.

Hoppertunity - Scratched. Was Baffert's best shot at the Derby. Did not agree with the 6/1 ML odds, maybe a threat further into the triple crown.

Chitu - Sunland Derby winner out-dueled his stable mate Midnight Hawk. Baffert trained horse will need to pull of a Mine That Bird miracle with this pressing pace.

Danza - Pletcher trained Arkansas Derby winner (at 41/1 odds) that has come out of nowhere. Ran by far his best race and was an optional claimer just 3 times out. The proverbial dark horse.

Samraat - Sticks close to the pace and likes to stalk. Disappointing finish in the Wood Memorial, but could finish near the front with a strong trip.

Candy Boy - California stakes winner was third best in the Santa Anita Derby. Out-dueled Chitu earlier in the year at Santa Anita, but looked very weak in the stretch.

Tapiture - Loves Churchill Downs, may actually be better suited for the Preakness as the added distance could prove troubling for him.

OK, that is still way too many damn horses. After second glance, it's going to be hard for any horse to beat Santa Anita Derby winner California Chrome. Wildcat Red is certainly worth a look at 20/1 after his solid performance in the Florida Derby. Vicar's in Trouble is going to come out of the 1 spot and has long 30/1 odds as a result. The horse is much better than that. Wicked Strong impressed in the Wood Memorial and could rally late to round out the super.

1st - California Chrome
2nd - Wildcat Red
3rd - Vicar's in Trouble
4th - Wicked Strong

Does Colin Cowherd have a point about John Wall?

The Wizards 2013-2014 season really has to be considered a great success.  They've reached the playoffs for the first time since 2008, reaching their highest win total since 2004.  One of the major contributing factors has been that 2010 first overall pick John Wall has been healthy all season, playing in all 82 games for the first time in his career.  Wall has played well this season, reaching his first all star game and has lead the league with 721 assists.

Colin Cowherd though has not shared the enthusiasm for the young PG.  Some of his criticism is a little over the top (questions of Wall's ability to sell jerseys, or his dancing ability), but he also brings up aspects of Wall's game that deserve some observation.  The biggest critique starts with John's shooting, illustrated in the below shot chart.

John Wall's Shot chart 2013-2014 Regular Season
Red: Below League Average
Yellow: Around League Average
Green: Above League Average

As we can see, Wall has struggled in comparison with the rest of the league in a lot of areas, going below league average in eight of the fourteen regions.  Amongst point guards, his 52.4% True Shooting rate ranks him just 36th amongst qualifying players.  Thats behind the likes of Jordan Farmar, and Alec Burks, and in the same zone as Brandon Knight and Ben Udrih, not exactly elite company.  Wall is still a developing shooter, he dramatically increased his volume of three point attempts, but struggled convert a lot of those shots.  He ranked just 23rd amongst qualifying point guards (players who played a majority of at least 60 games and at least 1500 minutes as a PG) with a total of 35%.  John Wall is just not a very good shooter.

His offensive rating also wasn't particularly high, ranking 20th  amongst qualifying PGs.  This is a surprising fact, since Wall does a good job of drawing fouls (12.5% of his shots draw one), and his assist rate is around 40% (in terms of points scored while he's on the court), but its the turnovers that really hurt.  Wall lead the league in turnovers this season, and posted a 2.44 Asssist to turnover ratio, 17th amongst his peers.  

Defensively Wall is a solid player.  His steals to turnover ratio is similar to most of his contemperaries, at about .5.  His ability to guard other players in the 10-20 foot region is pretty solid, allowing 39,1% at 10-14 feet and just 401.1 at 15-20, both in the upper half of eligible guards.  

Overall it paints a picture of Wall being a solid player, but one that if he can't improve his shooting won't be one that the Wizards can really center themselves around.  So while some of Cowher'ds concerns might be a little ridiculous, the main thrust holds up to us.  

NCAAB 2014: Final 4 Charts

NCAAB 2014: Elite 8

Florida(1) vs Dayton(11): Can the Flyers run continue?  They pulled away from Stanford in late in the first half and never looked back.  They did it by being very efficient inside, shooting 57% from two point range, 7% better than during the regular season.  They weren't nearly as dominant on the defensive glass though, picking up just 62% of those chances.  The Gators meanwhile forced the Bruins of UCLA into one of their worst perimeter shooting efforts of the season.  UCLA hit just 16% from beyond the arc, while posting just a 1.5 assist to turnover ratio.  Offensively, it will be interesting to see if the Gators can get back to hitting threes, especially Scott Wilbekin, who went just 2/8 from distance.  

Arizona(1) vs Wisconsin(2): Arizona had to pull out all the stops to get past the Aztecs.  Every player that logged at least ten minutes besides Gabe York posted an ORtg of at least 109.  Nick Johnson made up for a poor night of shooting (2-12) by being perfect from the free throw line.  The Wildcats were pretty adept getting to the line, getting an attempt on 52% of their field goals.  Arizona continued their strong overall defense, forcing more than twice as many turnovers as assists for San Diego State, and also holding Xavier Thames to just 1-6 shooting from distance.  The Badgers could turn this game into a defensive struggle though after their handling of Baylor, whom Wisconsin allowed just .84 points per possession.  On the inside, Frank Kaminsky got the best of Isaiah Austin, going 8-11, while also blocking six shots.  

NCAAB 2014 Sweet 16: Friday's Games

Table Guide

Column 1) Effective Field Goal Percentage. 2) Turnover Rate. 3) Free Throw Rate. 

4) Offensive Rebound Rate. 5) Defensive Effective Field Goal Percentage. 

6) Defensive Turnover Rate. 7) Defensive Free Throw Rate. 8) Defensive Rebound Rate. 

9) Offensive Rating (Higher is better). 10) Defensive Rating (Lower is better)

Iowa State (3) vs. UConn (7) - Georges Niang will be out of the game, but the Cyclones have done well to fill his spot with the more efficient Naz Long. The high scoring Iowa State attack will score at will, but will have to play solid defense in order to beat the Huskies in a game that is much closer than what the rankings would indicate. Shabazz Napier leads the way for a team that plays total shutdown defense. They should at least keep Iowa State at bay with their 10th ranked DRtg, but will need a more consistent offensive effort for the win.

Louisville (4) vs. Kentucky (8) - These two teams seem to be heading in different directions. Louisville has been shaky in their first two tournament games, but are no doubt the better overall team. Much like last year's national championship squad, Louisville is strong defensively (3rd DRtg) and hasn't missed a beat in that regard in the tournament. They'll look to Luke Hancock, Russ Smith, and Montrezl Harrell to right their offense. Kentucky may have the most raw talent in the entire tournament. Coach Cal seems to have brought it all together at the right time. If they can win the battle on the boards (2nd in ORB%, 90th in DRB%) they may shock the Cardinals.

Virginia (1) vs. Michigan State (4) - Even with their #4 ranking in the region, Michigan State is favored in the game by 2 points. This is due to the fact that the Spartans are peaking at the right moment, are finally completely healthy, and have that championship coaching pedigree. They nearly blew a comfortable lead to Harvard and will have to be sharper to beat a much more dangerous team. Virginia is often overlooked because they aren't flashy. They have in my opinion, the nation's 2nd best defense behind Arizona and also have an array of offensive counter punching options as well. If Malcolm Brogdon and Joe Harris accel offensively, there will be no stopping the Cavaliers.

Michigan (2) vs. Tennessee (11) - The Volunteers have gone from one of the last teams in, to a dangerous Sweet 16 team. It wouldn't shock me if they pulled the upset. In fact, i'll call it right here. Maymon and Stokes will dominate the boards against Michigan who will have to be extremely efficient offensively in order to win. Jordan McRae and Josh Richardson can score from just about anywhere on the floor. The Wolverines hit 3s at an impressive 41% clip. Their defense is lacking however, and will find open looks hard to come by against the Vols.

NCAAB 2014 Sweet 16: Thursday's games

Arizona(1) vs San Diego St.(4): The Wildcats' calling card this season has been a smothering defense, which has continued through the first two rounds of the tournament.  Gonzaga was able to shoot just 42% inside, and Weber St. went just 9-36.  This could be disastrous for the Aztecs since they've struggled to hit the close range shots all season, ranking 303rd in the nation in two point shooting percentage.  On the offensive side Aaron Gordon has been dominate, posting ORtgs of 110 and 126, with a 3:2 assist to turnover ratio while shooting 71.4% from the field.  Nick Johnson has yet to really catch fire as well, going just 7-19 from two point range. The Aztecs also play very good defense, posting a 90.3 defensive efficiency rating. SDSU is going to rely heavily on Xavier Thames offensively, who has already logged 78 minutes through two games.  He Tallied a 126 Ortg against the Bison last round, and found his stroke shooting 50% from beyond the arc.  

Baylor(7) vs Wisconsin(2):   The Bears have rolled through their first two opponents, winning by a margin of 44 points.  This is at least in part because their opponents have struggled from beyond the arc, shooting just 20%.  Baylor has solid perimeter defense, but that trend has to end sometime soon.  Kenny Chery has been one of the best assist men in the league, contributing a 34.1% assist rate to just 19% turnover rate.  Brady Heslip had an amazingly efficient game against Creighton, posting a 208 Ortg by going 5-7 from three point range.  The Badgers had to put together a great comeback against Oregon after trailing by 12 at halftime, largely by continuing to protect the ball, with just 8 turnovers (12.3%).  On the interior, Frank Kaminsky has a 122.9 Ortg and has a 19.4% defensive rebound rate and a 60.6% true shooting.  The Badgers though have made their mark on the outside, scoring a third of their points from three point range.  Josh Gasser has used just 12.9% of their possessions, but has used them all very well with a 132.7 ORtg and a 66.9% true shooting rate.

Dayton(11) vs Stanford(10):  Dayton has become the Cinderella for this year's tournament, upsetting in state rival Ohio State to open play by a single point, then holding on against a late barrage by the former number one team Syracuse.  The Flyers have done it behind the strong shooting of Dyshawn Pierre, who is 10-12 from the free throw line and has shot 45% from two point range.  While not know primarily for their perimeter defense, both the Orange and the Buckeyes struggled from range against Dayton, going a combined 3/22.  The Flyers do need to keep better handle of the ball, posting sub 1.0 Assist to Turnover ratios in both games they've played.  Stanford might not be able to take advantage though, after forcing steals on just 7.7% of their opponents possessions this season.  The Cardinal played solid defense all year, but nothing like what they were able to accomplish against KU, whom they held to just 33% shooting from two point range, and forced a 2:1 turnover to assist ratio from the Jayhawks.  They will need to find their stroke from three point range again, after shooting 53% against New Mexico in the opening round, they went 0-9 against KU.

Florida(1) vs UCLA(4): The Gators will bring in a defense that has been dominant this season, including completing shutting down a Pitt team that had ranked 19th in the nation in offensive efficiency.  Its been an interior defense that has held teams to just 42.9% shooting from short range thats done it, combined with some quick handed guards that have forced a turnover rate of 21.7%.  On offense, the Gators have a consistent scorer in Casey Prather, who had a 63.4% true shooting mark.  Fellow back court mate Michael Frazier is one of the top scorers in the country, posting a 126.1 ORtg this season, but has struggled so far in the tournament, going just 2-14 from three point range.  They'll be tested by a Bruins team that was ranked in the top 30 in both three point shooting percentage and two point shooting percentage.  Against Stephen F. Austin they shot 64% inside, but struggled from the free throw line shooting just 65%.  Jordan Adams has been their most consistent scorer so far this tournament, posting 145 and 114 ORtgs so far.

NHL Picks: Red Wings at Blue Jackets

Rich Douglas

Matchup: Detroit Red Wings (+115) at Columbus Blue Jackets (-135). Total 5.5 (under -130)

-As you can see by the graph above, both teams have been fairly even over the last 10 games in regards to Fenwick. Their Corsi numbers mirror this as well.

-Over the course of the season, the Red Wings have a 51% Fenwick while the Jackets are listed at 50%. They've been very consistent in registering average possession numbers. 

-They've achieved their average Fenwicks in differing ways. The Red Wings are listed as 13th in Fenwick allowed while the Blue Jackets are an impressive 5th. Columbus hasn't generated much forward offense however as they rank 25th in Fenwick offense while the Wings are 12th. 

-Has either team been overly lucky this season? For an explanation of PDO, click here. 

-It looks like the Blue Jackets have been coming back down to earth over their last 9 games. Columbus is 3-6 over that stretch and are now fighting for one of the 2 wildcard spots. Their PDO shows it. 

-The Red Wings have stabilized in "luck" after an up and down start to the season. They've been highly variable in that regard which can probably be attributed to their slew of injuries.

Other Notes

-Jimmy Howard and Sergei Bobrovsky are expected to start. Pavel Datsyuk and Henrik Zetterberg are out with injuries. Add them to Ericsson, Abdelkater, Cleary, and Weiss as the key players out for the Red Wings. 

-The last 5 times these teams have met, the game has gone Under the total. The Blue Jackets have also played in 5 straight Unders. 

-Columbus has won 4 out of their last 5 head to head meetings with Detroit. The home team has also won 9 of the last 13 times these two have met.

The Play: It's hard to ignore Columbus' elite Fenwick defense and difficulty to generate many shots attempted on the offensive end. Couple that with the fact that Detroit has plenty of offensive options out and you have two solid goalies in net and you have a play on the Under 5.5 (-130).

All graphs are provided by extraskater.com

2014 NCAAB Round of 32: Sunday Charts and Notes

Table Guide

Column 1) Effective Field Goal Percentage. 2) Turnover Rate. 3) Free Throw Rate. 

4) Offensive Rebound Rate. 5) Defensive Effective Field Goal Percentage. 

6) Defensive Turnover Rate. 7) Defensive Free Throw Rate. 8) Defensive Rebound Rate. 

9) Offensive Rating (Higher is better). 10) Defensive Rating (Lower is better)

Arizona (1) vs. Gonzaga (8): The Wildcats were able to shoot from distance thanks to Nick Johnson's 4-6 effort.  Arizona made good use of passing lanes as well, assisting on over half of their made baskets.  They might be in a little more trouble against the Zags though if they aren't able to clean up the defensive glass better than they did against Weber St.  The Zags for their part held Marcus Smart to just a 96 ORtg, and forced him and Matt Forte to go just 3-12 from distance.  Przemek Karnowski had ten rebounds to lead Gonzaga, and was used on 29% of their offensive possessions.  They will need to be much better from the free throw line, hitting just 63.4%.  

Creighton (3) vs. Baylor (6) - The Bears made quick work of Nebraska leading wire to wire 74-60. Cory Jefferson led their balanced scoring attack with 16 point, but the real star was Center Isiah Austin with a 147 ORtg. Brady Heslip surprisingly went 0-6 beyond the arc, but still finished with 12 points and a 102 ORtg because of his free throw shooting. Look for him to improve. Creighton had a little bit of trouble with a very game UL Lafayette squad, but they continued to score efficiently with their array of options. To no one's surprise, Doug McDermott led the way with 30 points and a 133 ORtg. Their perimeter offense may be too much for Baylor to handle, but this should be the most interesting matchup all day.

Iowa State (3) vs. North Carolina (6) - Iowa State will be without stretch big man Georges Niang. Niang's absence may prove to be the difference in this game, but the Cyclones have plenty of other scoring options that could fill the void. Ejim, Morris, and Hogue combined for 49 points and an insane 162 ORtg in their win over NC Central. The Tar Heels weren't particularly efficient on the defensive end against Providence, allowing 3 of their 5 starters to record ORtgs of 130 or higher. James Michael McAdoo will have to dominate the paint in order for them to win. Something he's been inconsistent in doing.

Kansas (2) vs. Stanford (10) - Stanford came out guns blazing against New Mexico and held on to win a difficult matchup. The Cardinal played incredible defense against two of the more dominant big men in the country. Cameron Bairstow scored an inefficient 24 points with a 102 ORtg and 7 footer Alex Kirk finished the game with 3 points and 6 rebounds. Kansas had much more trouble with Eastern Kentucky as the 80-69 score indicates. One has to wonder just how deep into the tournament they can go without Joel Embiid. Andrew Wiggins is an obvious future star and he played like it leading the Jayhawks with 19 points and playing shutdown defense down the stretch.

Wichita State (1) vs. Kentucky (9) - This is the matchup Shockers fans have been waiting for. For the first time all season, they can prove whether or not they belong on the big stage. The betting line has them favored by 3 points and in order to cover those 3, they'll have to find some scoring help for Cleanthony Early who was the only player to score more than 8 points against Cal Poly. The Wildcats have the talent to beat any team on any given day and will look to Randle and Cauley-Stein to clean up down low while James Young and the Harrison twins shoot from the perimeter. Talent-wise, you have to give the edge to Kentucky, but the Shockers may prove that experience is key in the Big Dance.

Virginia (1) vs. Memphis (8) - The Cavaliers had some trouble with Coastal Carolina as they were down 10 at one point and losing at the half. The game wasn't ever really in doubt however, once Virginia became more efficient offensively. They'll need bigger games out of Malcolm Brogdon and Joe Harris, but the defense should be there anyways for them to pull out the win. Memphis is looking for the upset, but their offense needs to be more consistent.

Tennessee (11) vs. Mercer (14) - In what is surely the most surprising 2nd round matchup of the tournament, a re-energized Volunteer squad play the darlings of the tournament, the Mercer Bears. Mercer fought fire with fire against Duke, quickening their pace and playing very efficient offense. Tennessee will definitely control the pace as they normally do. The Vols need to make sure their big guns Jordan McRae, Jarnell Stokes, and Josh Richardson out muscle and out shoot Mercer as the Bears look for another upset.

UCLA (4) vs. Stephen F. Austin (12) - The Bruins are somehow overlooked even with their elite offense. They have 7 legitimate scoring options in Adams, Anderson, LaVine, Alford, Powell, and the Wear twins. They typically control the pace and pull away from teams late, just as they did against Tulsa and should do the same in this matchup. Stephen F. Austin hit a miraculous 4 point play in order to force OT and eventually get the W. The Lumberjacks will have to adjust to a pace that will assuredly be faster than they're used to.

NCAAB 2014 Round of 32: Saturday Charts and Notes

Connecticut(7) vs Villanova(2): Ryan Boatright was the man that came up big for the Huskies in their overtime win against St. Joe's, by shooting 67% from beyond the arc and committing just a single turnover.  Shabazz Napier cant be as inefficient as he was if the Huskies want to upset Nova, where he had just a 103 ORtg thanks to a 5-14 performance form inside the arc, and four turnovers.  Villanova cruised against Milwaukee, allowing no more than 19 points in a quarter, including a stifling 8 point first.  They will need to clean up the three ball though, going 4-23 is not pretty.

Dayton(11) vs Syracuse(3): The Flyers had the upset of Day 1, knocking off in state rival Ohio State by a margin of just a single point.  Dyshawn Pierre was perfect frm the free throw line, and the team shot 2% better inside the arc than they had the rest of the season.  The Orange were able to hold Western Michigan to just 41.9% on their two pint attempts, and had four of their five starters post ORtgs better than 125.  Going 7-17 from three point range, typically not a strength (33.7% on the season) lead to several big quarters.  

Florida(1) vs Pittsburgh(9): The Panthers crushed the Buffs, scoring 15 unanswered to start the game.  The Gators on the other hand allowed Albany to start hot, but eventually forced 10 turnovers to get the 12 point win.  

Harvard(12) vs Michigan St.(4): The Crimson upset the Bearcats by holding down Sean Kilpatrick,  forcing him into 5 turnovers and just a 98 ORtg.  Laurent Rivard was good beyond the arc, going 3-5, while also snagging 5 defensive rebounds.  MSU on the other hand throttled Delaware by draining three after three, shooting 52.6% from that range.  Every player that had at least 10 minutes besides Denzel Valentine had an ORtg of greater than 100 as well(6 players).

Louisville(4) vs Saint Louis(5):  Louisville allowed Manhattan to hang around in the middle of the game, largely because of a 16-42 performance inside the arc and poor play from Russ Smith (3-9 shooting 4 fouls, 6 turnovers).  St. Louis need OT to beat the upstart Wolfpack, scoring 33 points in the final 10 minutes to advance.  Rob Loe was the player of the day really, going 4-5 from 2 point range, 4-6 from 3, and snagging 15 rebounds

Michigan(2) vs Texas(7):  The Wolverines struggled to find their offensive footing against Wofford, posting just 57 points,  a near season low.  Its a stark contrast from a team that was ranked third with over a 121 ORtg.  The Longhorns survived a scare by ASU, committing 24 fouls.  Martez Walker came off the bench to go 9-10 from the free throw line to lock in the win.  

NDSU(12) vs SDSU(4): The wonderful year of sports continues fro the Bison, upsetting a very solid Oklahoma squad.  Lawrence Alexander paced the team  with 28 points, a 145 ORtg and nabbed 8 rebounds.  The Aztecs avoided their own scare, largely because of just a 40.5% day from inside the arc.

Oregon(7) vs Wisconsin(2): The Badgers embarrassed American, after getting down 4 early by keeping them single digits in every remaining quarter.  They also missed just a single free throw, and committed just seven turnovers.  The Ducks dispatched BYU by outscoring them by 11 points in the final ten minutes.  Oregon made up for an extremely poor 3 point day (2-13) by shooting 61% from 2 point range.   

2014 NCAAB Tournament: West Region

Table Guide

Column 1) Effective Field Goal Percentage. 2) Turnover Rate. 3) Free Throw Rate. 

4) Offensive Rebound Rate. 5) Defensive Effective Field Goal Percentage. 

6) Defensive Turnover Rate. 7) Defensive Free Throw Rate. 8) Defensive Rebound Rate. 

9) Offensive Rating (Higher is better). 10) Defensive Rating (Lower is better)

Arizona (1) vs. Weber State (16) - Arizona hasn't let the loss of Brandon Ashley hold them down. The nation's most efficient defense (86.9 D-Rating) has tons of depth for a deep tournament run. What is perhaps most impressive is the fact that they've recorded that elite D-Rating against the likes of UCLA, Oregon, and the rest of the offensively proficient Pac 12. They'll outrebound just about every team with Tarczewski, Gordon, and Hollis-Jefferson roaming the front court. Weber State continues their success even after Damian Lillard's graduation. Davion Berry has filled in nicely as the team's starting PG and is the key to their offense. The senior leads the team in ORtg, eFG, TS%, Possessions, Shots, assists, points, and Free Throws.

Gonzaga (8) vs. Oklahoma State (9) - In what is probably the best 8/9 matchup of the tournament, Marcus Smart will attempt to right an up and down season. With their 7 game losing streak in the rear view mirror, a very capable Cowboy offense led by Marcus Smart, Markel Brown, and Phil Forte will need to see if their defense will be up to the task against Gonzaga. The Bulldogs are deep on both sides of the ball. Kevin Pangos, Gary Bell, Sam Dower, and Drew Barham all have ORtg's north of 120. Their 13th ranked defense (93.7 D-Rating) will have plenty to handle as well.

Oklahoma (5) vs. North Dakota State (12) - The oddsmakers are onto this one. This in our opinion is the likeliest 5/12 upset as two very even big time offenses try to outscore each other. The Bison are led by perhaps the most underrated Power Forward in the nation, Marshall Bjorklund. Bjorklund is shooting 63% from the field while recording a 121 ORtg and a 62.8 eFG which good for 18th in the entire nation. They do however have trouble defensively (140th D-rating) which may lead to their demise against the 15th most efficient offense. Lon Kruger's up tempo offense has been at times unstoppable this season. They have tons of depth with 5 regulars having O-Rating's of over 110. They also have a Power Forward of their own in Ryan Spangler that is among the most efficient shooters in the country. Coach Kruger is trying to get over some demons of his own however as his Oklahoma and UNLV teams are 1-4 in their last 5 NCAA tournament games.

San Diego State (4) vs. New Mexico St. (13) - The Aztecs are all about their team defense as they finished the season 7th in the nation with a 90.9 D-Rating. Their problem though is that outside of standout senior Xavier Thames, SDSU has no other real scoring options. Three of their starters have O-Ratings of 100 or less, but they should still be able to make an impact in this game due to their obvious defensive strengths. New Mexico State on the other hand have plenty of scoring options. It remains to be seen whether or not they'll be able to score on an elite defense like this, but their 112 O-Rating was good for 42nd in the nation this year. 

Baylor (6) vs. Nebraska (11) - Both of these teams finished their seasons strong and looked to be dangerous under the radar matchups against whoever they faced. I personally have Baylor going to the Elite 8 because of their numerous scoring options and ability to control the pace of the game. They have perhaps the best 3 point shooter in the game (Brady Heslip 2nd O-Rating in the nation), a very efficient PG in Kenny Cherry, future lottery pick Isiah Austin, and big bodied Rico Gathers who is as strong as any player in college basketball. Tim Miles has completely turned around the Huskers just as he turned around Colorado State before he arrived in Lincoln. While Nebraska has been prone to going through long offensive droughts, their defense has kept them in games, and the scoring and leadership of center Walter Pitchford propelled them into the tournament. 

Creighton (3) vs. UL Lafayette (14) - The nations number 1 offense (125.7 O-Rating) is led by player of the year candidate Doug McDermott. McDermott should win the award as he's done just about everything for the Blue Jays. We know McDermott will score, but their offense goes way past him. Ethan Wragge has only taken 7 shots inside the arc this season. That's because Wragge is 104-220 beyond the arc, good for 47.3%. In fact, Creighton has 5 players that shoot 40% or greater beyond the arc. UL Lafayette will need to play their best game of the season, but do have a good offense themselves. They averaged over 80 points/game during the Sun Belt conference tournament.

Oregon (7) vs. BYU (10) - This region is all about the offenses and this matchup features 2 very explosive ones that can take over games. Oregon has had a strange season. After starting off 13-0, they lost 8 of their next 10 and were in danger of missing out on the tournament. Their 12th ranked offense willed them to win their final 8 games and are now a team no one wants to face. The Cougars stumbled in the WCC championship game against Gonzaga, but still remain a dangerous threat. Like Oregon, the Cougars have trouble defensively allowing basically the same eFG% while hitting the same eFG%. This one should go down to the wire.

Wisconsin (2) vs. American (15) - The American Eagles shouldn't be overlooked as a 15 seed because of their ability to shutdown offenses.They're holding teams to just a 45.9 eFG and have a turnover rate of 20. They're ranked 46th overall in D-Rating, but will have to play their best offensive game of the season by far in order to advance. Turnovers have been a killer as their TOV% is 22.8 (342nd in the nation and worst in the tournament). The Badgers on the other hand have a TOV% of 12.6 (2nd in the nation and best in the tournament). They're the 5th most efficient team on offense in the nation and are led by Ben Brust (121 ORtg), Frank Kaminsky (124.7 ORtg) and Josh Gasser (130 ORtg). As long as they continue to protect the ball, they should avoid the upset. 

2014 NCAAB Tournament: East Region

Table Guide

Column 1) Effective Field Goal Percentage. 2) Turnover Rate. 3) Free Throw Rate. 

4) Offensive Rebound Rate. 5) Defensive Effective Field Goal Percentage. 

6) Defensive Turnover Rate. 7) Defensive Free Throw Rate. 8) Defensive Rebound Rate. 

9) Offensive Rating (Higher is better). 10) Defensive Rating (Lower is better)

Cincinnati(5) vs Harvard(12): The Bearcats and Crimson will face off in one of the more intriguing matchups of the round of 64.  Sean Kilpatrick takes 32% of the Bearcats shots, and has posted an individual 120.4 offensive rating this season.  When He has not played well on offense though, Cincinnati has failed to produce points.  In games where he has shot under 40%, the Bearcats have not once scored more than 57 points.  Cincinnati though will fall back on a strong defense that kept them in all of those games, and forced a remarkable 22.5% turnover rate.  Harvard will work to do what they have done all season and get to the free throw line, where they accounted for 25% of their scoring by making it to the line on half of their field goal attempts.  They also limit their own turnovers to a 23rd ranked 21.4%.  

Virginia(1) vs Coastal Carolina(16): The Cavaliers were a surprise 1 seed, especially after a season ending OT loss to Maryland.  The Cavs play a suffocating defense, allowing opponents to grab just 26% of their misses and blocking nearly 12% of their shots.  Virginia is also well balanced, with five players falling into the 20-24% usage range.  Their only real limiting factor might be a poor effort at the free throw line, where they make just 66.3%.  The Chanticleers are unlikely to make much noise because the offense is just dreadful.  A near bottom three point percentage, and just 47.9% shooting from inside the arc, coupled with over a 20% turnover rate will make staying close in this opening round game tough.

UConn(7) vs St. Joeseph's(10): The Huskies this season had just a single loss to a team outside of the top 40, thanks largely to the play of Shabazz Napier.  Napier was able to achieve a 58% true shooting rate, thanks to a 39% three point field goal percentage.  UConn also played outstanding defense, allowing just a 43.9% effective shooting rate for opponents, and forcing turnovers on 19.5% of their possessions.  THis could be problematic for St. Joes, who ranked 200th in turnover rate.  They will test that UConn defense though when they do get shots off, since their EFG was 53.9, including a 38% mark from beyond the arc and 52% inside it.

Michigan State(4) vs Delaware(13): The Spartans were a team that dominated early on this season, but injuries caused them to go just 5-7 down the stretch.  Of course, they might be heating up again at the right time after blowing through the Big Ten tournament and capturing another title for Izzo.  The Spartans have been one of the best three point shooting teams in the country this year, hitting 39%.  32% of all their points this season came from the three ball, which could be a little dangerous if they go cold.  The Blue Hens only saving grace might be their care with the ball, turning it over on just 13.5% of their possessions.  

Memphis(8) vs George Washington(9): Don't expect a lot of made free throws in this one, since both the Colonials and Tigers shoot just 65% from the line.  It shouldn't be much of an issue though, since both teams are inside the top 50 in free throws per field goals attempted

Iowa State(3) vs NC Central(14): This matchup pits one of the nations best teams at not turning the ball over (Iowa State at just 14.4%) against one of the leaders in takeaway(NC Central 24%).  Iowa State's lack of height (Center Hogue is just 6'6) likely wont be a major disadvantage against the Eagles, who don't feature a lot of size either.  This should be an entertaining early round match up that pits strength against strength.

Villanova(2) vs Milwaukee(15): The Milwaukee Panthers dropped four of five heading into the Horizon League tournament, where they then rattled off four wins and likely knocked Green Bay out of the big dance.  They have struggled with turnovers, handing over 20% of their possessions while only forcing turnovers on 18.5% of their opponents. The Wildcats on the other hand posses both one of the most efficient offenses in the nation (115.8) and one of the most efficient defenses(93.7).  Its been their interior offense and defense that's done it, allowing just 43.4% shooting inside the arc while making 54% of their own close shots. 

North Carolina(6) vs Providence(11): The Tar Heels are easily one of the most enigmatic teams in this tournament. They beat top tier teams Louisville, Michigan State and Kentucky, and went on a 12 game win streak prior to falling to Duke in the season finale.  They also though had losses to UAB, Belmont and Wake Forest.  They excel at grabbing offensive rebounds, but cant hit a free throw to save their lives, resulting in their higher variability.  Providence's play can be summed up with one name: Bryce Cotton.  The senior PG played 96% of the Friars minutes this season, and posted a 118.3 ORtg with a 56% true shooting rate.  The Friars might also get a bit of help on the glass from Kadeem Batts, who was adept at the second chance with a 12.2 OReb%.