Rich Douglas
Matchup: Detroit Red Wings (+115) at Columbus Blue Jackets (-135). Total 5.5 (under -130)
-As you can see by the graph above, both teams have been fairly even over the last 10 games in regards to Fenwick. Their Corsi numbers mirror this as well.
-Over the course of the season, the Red Wings have a 51% Fenwick while the Jackets are listed at 50%. They've been very consistent in registering average possession numbers.
-They've achieved their average Fenwicks in differing ways. The Red Wings are listed as 13th in Fenwick allowed while the Blue Jackets are an impressive 5th. Columbus hasn't generated much forward offense however as they rank 25th in Fenwick offense while the Wings are 12th.
-Has either team been overly lucky this season? For an explanation of PDO, click here.
-It looks like the Blue Jackets have been coming back down to earth over their last 9 games. Columbus is 3-6 over that stretch and are now fighting for one of the 2 wildcard spots. Their PDO shows it.
-The Red Wings have stabilized in "luck" after an up and down start to the season. They've been highly variable in that regard which can probably be attributed to their slew of injuries.
Other Notes
-Jimmy Howard and Sergei Bobrovsky are expected to start. Pavel Datsyuk and Henrik Zetterberg are out with injuries. Add them to Ericsson, Abdelkater, Cleary, and Weiss as the key players out for the Red Wings.
-The last 5 times these teams have met, the game has gone Under the total. The Blue Jackets have also played in 5 straight Unders.
-Columbus has won 4 out of their last 5 head to head meetings with Detroit. The home team has also won 9 of the last 13 times these two have met.
The Play: It's hard to ignore Columbus' elite Fenwick defense and difficulty to generate many shots attempted on the offensive end. Couple that with the fact that Detroit has plenty of offensive options out and you have two solid goalies in net and you have a play on the Under 5.5 (-130).
All graphs are provided by extraskater.com
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