Table Guide
Column 1) Effective Field Goal Percentage. 2) Turnover Rate. 3) Free Throw Rate.
4) Offensive Rebound Rate. 5) Defensive Effective Field Goal Percentage.
6) Defensive Turnover Rate. 7) Defensive Free Throw Rate. 8) Defensive Rebound Rate.
9) Offensive Rating (Higher is better). 10) Defensive Rating (Lower is better)
Cincinnati(5) vs Harvard(12): The Bearcats and Crimson will face off in one of the more intriguing matchups of the round of 64. Sean Kilpatrick takes 32% of the Bearcats shots, and has posted an individual 120.4 offensive rating this season. When He has not played well on offense though, Cincinnati has failed to produce points. In games where he has shot under 40%, the Bearcats have not once scored more than 57 points. Cincinnati though will fall back on a strong defense that kept them in all of those games, and forced a remarkable 22.5% turnover rate. Harvard will work to do what they have done all season and get to the free throw line, where they accounted for 25% of their scoring by making it to the line on half of their field goal attempts. They also limit their own turnovers to a 23rd ranked 21.4%.
Virginia(1) vs Coastal Carolina(16): The Cavaliers were a surprise 1 seed, especially after a season ending OT loss to Maryland. The Cavs play a suffocating defense, allowing opponents to grab just 26% of their misses and blocking nearly 12% of their shots. Virginia is also well balanced, with five players falling into the 20-24% usage range. Their only real limiting factor might be a poor effort at the free throw line, where they make just 66.3%. The Chanticleers are unlikely to make much noise because the offense is just dreadful. A near bottom three point percentage, and just 47.9% shooting from inside the arc, coupled with over a 20% turnover rate will make staying close in this opening round game tough.
UConn(7) vs St. Joeseph's(10): The Huskies this season had just a single loss to a team outside of the top 40, thanks largely to the play of Shabazz Napier. Napier was able to achieve a 58% true shooting rate, thanks to a 39% three point field goal percentage. UConn also played outstanding defense, allowing just a 43.9% effective shooting rate for opponents, and forcing turnovers on 19.5% of their possessions. THis could be problematic for St. Joes, who ranked 200th in turnover rate. They will test that UConn defense though when they do get shots off, since their EFG was 53.9, including a 38% mark from beyond the arc and 52% inside it.
Michigan State(4) vs Delaware(13): The Spartans were a team that dominated early on this season, but injuries caused them to go just 5-7 down the stretch. Of course, they might be heating up again at the right time after blowing through the Big Ten tournament and capturing another title for Izzo. The Spartans have been one of the best three point shooting teams in the country this year, hitting 39%. 32% of all their points this season came from the three ball, which could be a little dangerous if they go cold. The Blue Hens only saving grace might be their care with the ball, turning it over on just 13.5% of their possessions.
Memphis(8) vs George Washington(9): Don't expect a lot of made free throws in this one, since both the Colonials and Tigers shoot just 65% from the line. It shouldn't be much of an issue though, since both teams are inside the top 50 in free throws per field goals attempted
Iowa State(3) vs NC Central(14): This matchup pits one of the nations best teams at not turning the ball over (Iowa State at just 14.4%) against one of the leaders in takeaway(NC Central 24%). Iowa State's lack of height (Center Hogue is just 6'6) likely wont be a major disadvantage against the Eagles, who don't feature a lot of size either. This should be an entertaining early round match up that pits strength against strength.
Villanova(2) vs Milwaukee(15): The Milwaukee Panthers dropped four of five heading into the Horizon League tournament, where they then rattled off four wins and likely knocked Green Bay out of the big dance. They have struggled with turnovers, handing over 20% of their possessions while only forcing turnovers on 18.5% of their opponents. The Wildcats on the other hand posses both one of the most efficient offenses in the nation (115.8) and one of the most efficient defenses(93.7). Its been their interior offense and defense that's done it, allowing just 43.4% shooting inside the arc while making 54% of their own close shots.
North Carolina(6) vs Providence(11): The Tar Heels are easily one of the most enigmatic teams in this tournament. They beat top tier teams Louisville, Michigan State and Kentucky, and went on a 12 game win streak prior to falling to Duke in the season finale. They also though had losses to UAB, Belmont and Wake Forest. They excel at grabbing offensive rebounds, but cant hit a free throw to save their lives, resulting in their higher variability. Providence's play can be summed up with one name: Bryce Cotton. The senior PG played 96% of the Friars minutes this season, and posted a 118.3 ORtg with a 56% true shooting rate. The Friars might also get a bit of help on the glass from Kadeem Batts, who was adept at the second chance with a 12.2 OReb%.
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