Arizona(1) vs San Diego St.(4): The Wildcats' calling card this season has been a smothering defense, which has continued through the first two rounds of the tournament. Gonzaga was able to shoot just 42% inside, and Weber St. went just 9-36. This could be disastrous for the Aztecs since they've struggled to hit the close range shots all season, ranking 303rd in the nation in two point shooting percentage. On the offensive side Aaron Gordon has been dominate, posting ORtgs of 110 and 126, with a 3:2 assist to turnover ratio while shooting 71.4% from the field. Nick Johnson has yet to really catch fire as well, going just 7-19 from two point range. The Aztecs also play very good defense, posting a 90.3 defensive efficiency rating. SDSU is going to rely heavily on Xavier Thames offensively, who has already logged 78 minutes through two games. He Tallied a 126 Ortg against the Bison last round, and found his stroke shooting 50% from beyond the arc.
Baylor(7) vs Wisconsin(2): The Bears have rolled through their first two opponents, winning by a margin of 44 points. This is at least in part because their opponents have struggled from beyond the arc, shooting just 20%. Baylor has solid perimeter defense, but that trend has to end sometime soon. Kenny Chery has been one of the best assist men in the league, contributing a 34.1% assist rate to just 19% turnover rate. Brady Heslip had an amazingly efficient game against Creighton, posting a 208 Ortg by going 5-7 from three point range. The Badgers had to put together a great comeback against Oregon after trailing by 12 at halftime, largely by continuing to protect the ball, with just 8 turnovers (12.3%). On the interior, Frank Kaminsky has a 122.9 Ortg and has a 19.4% defensive rebound rate and a 60.6% true shooting. The Badgers though have made their mark on the outside, scoring a third of their points from three point range. Josh Gasser has used just 12.9% of their possessions, but has used them all very well with a 132.7 ORtg and a 66.9% true shooting rate.
Dayton(11) vs Stanford(10): Dayton has become the Cinderella for this year's tournament, upsetting in state rival Ohio State to open play by a single point, then holding on against a late barrage by the former number one team Syracuse. The Flyers have done it behind the strong shooting of Dyshawn Pierre, who is 10-12 from the free throw line and has shot 45% from two point range. While not know primarily for their perimeter defense, both the Orange and the Buckeyes struggled from range against Dayton, going a combined 3/22. The Flyers do need to keep better handle of the ball, posting sub 1.0 Assist to Turnover ratios in both games they've played. Stanford might not be able to take advantage though, after forcing steals on just 7.7% of their opponents possessions this season. The Cardinal played solid defense all year, but nothing like what they were able to accomplish against KU, whom they held to just 33% shooting from two point range, and forced a 2:1 turnover to assist ratio from the Jayhawks. They will need to find their stroke from three point range again, after shooting 53% against New Mexico in the opening round, they went 0-9 against KU.
Florida(1) vs UCLA(4): The Gators will bring in a defense that has been dominant this season, including completing shutting down a Pitt team that had ranked 19th in the nation in offensive efficiency. Its been an interior defense that has held teams to just 42.9% shooting from short range thats done it, combined with some quick handed guards that have forced a turnover rate of 21.7%. On offense, the Gators have a consistent scorer in Casey Prather, who had a 63.4% true shooting mark. Fellow back court mate Michael Frazier is one of the top scorers in the country, posting a 126.1 ORtg this season, but has struggled so far in the tournament, going just 2-14 from three point range. They'll be tested by a Bruins team that was ranked in the top 30 in both three point shooting percentage and two point shooting percentage. Against Stephen F. Austin they shot 64% inside, but struggled from the free throw line shooting just 65%. Jordan Adams has been their most consistent scorer so far this tournament, posting 145 and 114 ORtgs so far.
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