ACC Game of the Week Preview and Players to watch: Maryland vs FSU

By: Rich Douglas

At the start of the season no one really would have expected this matchup to have any importance, but Maryland has worked itself into the top 25 this week and will look to knock the ‘Noles and freshman phenom Jameis Winston.

When FSU has the ball:

The Seminoles offense is humming along as one of the best in the country right now, posting 8.5 yards per play as theyeve decimated opponents defenses by scoring 51 poitns a game.  Theyre doing it with some big plays as well, averaging 5.3 plays per drive and 47 yards per drive.  The team can look at Jameis Winston, who has a freshman has been nearly perfect through his first 4 starts.  He;s averaging 11.5 yards per attempt with 12 TDs and just 2 Ints, while completing 73.6% of his passes.  His third down numbers are amazing, with a 60% conversion rate.  In the maroon zone he’s completing 67% of his passes for 8.5 yards per attempt, with 10 Tds and no Ints.  In short, he’s having one of the most amazing freshman campaigns in the past several decades.  His success is evident in the receivers numbers as well, with Kenny Shaw averaging nearly 21 yards per catch on his 18 receptions.  Shaw is looking to blow past his numbers from last year, where he had only 572 yards all season.  His first down rate is improved as well, to 67% of his catches resulting in firsts.  Rashad Greene is the redzone target, with half of the compeltions going to him, and scoring 2 TDs (5 overall).  With teams needing to focus on Winston, the run game has opened up for the three headed monster of Devonta Freema, Karlos Williams and James Wilder Jr.  The three have taken 90 carries for 711 yards, a 7.8 yards per attempt average.  They’ve averaged 4.3 yards per carry in the redzone, scoring on over 25% of their touches.  The offensive line has been the one portion of the offense that has been a disappointment, allowing pressure on 10.6% of the QB dropbacks.

The ‘Terps defense has been much better than expected.  They’ve allowed just 3.98 yards per play on offense, just 10.3 points per game.  The key has been a lock down run defense, which is allowing just 2.88 yards per carry (1.7 in the redzone) and a-.62 average on third downs.  They’ve made a ton of plays in the backfield, totaling 35 tackles for loss this year lead by LB Marcus Whitfiled who has 6.5.  Whitfield has 5.5 sacks to the lead the team, which has tallied 17 through their first 4 games (but just a single QB hurry).  LA Goree has 26 tackles to lead the squad, 3 of them for loss and has a pass defended. The teams biggest question mark in this matchup will be the cornerback, which has seen their best player Dexter McDougle go down with injury and fellow starter Jeremiah Johnson missing time with a toe injury.  Freshman Will Likely though has played big, with 18 tackles and 2 passes defended.  AJ Hendy is the top secondary member with a single Int. 

When Maryland has the ball:

CJ Brown lost all of last season when he had torn ligaments in his knee in Fall camp.  If he hadn’t, Maryland might have started with more acclaim than they did this year.  Brown has been pretty fantastic for the Terps so far, completing 66.7% of his passes for 10.5 yards per attempt with 7 TDs and just a single Int.  He’s converted under half of his third down attempts, but almost everything under 9 yards he’s been able to pcik up, completing 13 of 16 passes with 9 conversions.  He’s been a big reason why the Terps 3 and out percentage is only 33%, better than the Noles 34%.  Stefon Diggs and Deon Long have been the main targets, with 18 and 21 catches respectively.  Diggs has been the deep threat, with his 7 catches of 25 yards or more this season .  Deon Long has played the possession receiver, with 13 of his 21 catches going for first downs and a 12.9 yards per catch average.  The offensive line has allowed this passing game to flourish, with just a 5% adjusted sack rate.  Brow has also been one of the team’s best runners, averaging 6.3 yards per carry and has scored 6 times.  RB Brandon Ross leads the team though with 66 carries and has averaged 5 yards per carry in his own right.  Ross has 17 runs of 10 yards or more.

The FSU defense limited opponents to a 34% conversion rate on third downs and just a 75% conversion rate in the redzone (with just 12 trips in the 4 games).  Senior backer Telvin Smith leads the team with 27 tackles, 4 of them for loss and has an Int with a sack and a QB hurry.  The secondary has done its job, allowing just 10 yards per catch with 6 passing TDs on 97 passes attempted against them, with 6 Ints.  Lamarcus Joyner has 2 passes defended to go with his 24 tackles.  Joyner also leads the team with a pair of sacks, answering the preseason question of which front seven player would provide pass rush with no clear answer yet.  DT Timmy Jernigan has a sack and a QB hurry, but the front seven needs to find more pass rush.

What’s our take:

Prior to this week, I think everyone looked at this game as a ho-hum affair with FSU just trouncing Maryland.  However, a lot changed when Maryland blanked WVU (who then surprised Ok State) and FSU fell down big to BC.  FSU likely still prevails, but we don’t think it will get decided until the 4^th quarter.  

LSU vs Georgia: Preview and Players to watch

By: Rich Douglas

Georgia comes in off a ho hum win against North Texas, while LSU enters this matchup of SEC powerhouses having just played and beaten convincingly Auburn.  While this game likely doesn't have SEC title game implications directly, both teams will want this win to keep pace with the other top teams in their respective divisions.  

When Georgia has the ball:

The matchup between the Dawgs offense and the LSU defense is a battle of titanic strengths.  Georgia’s offense has managed 40 points a game so far this season, picking up 7.8 yards per play.  They’ve kept drives alive, converting 39% of their third downs.  They’ve also finished drives, scoring on 84% of their red zone attempts.  Georgia works its offense on the ground,  with Todd Gurley and Keith Marshall running 94 times for 494 yards and 5 TDs so far.  Todd Gurley is a scary man, averaging 5.98 yards per carry, and 5.75 in the fourth quarter specifically.  In the Redzone, Gurley has averaged 5.11 yards per carry, but surprisingly is just 1 for 5 on third down attempts, 0-2 in 3^rd and short.  Aaron Murray might be the best QB in the SEC, he’s averaging 12.7 yards per attempt, and has completed 72% of his pass attempts.  He’s converted half of his third down attempts, and has 12 completions of more than 25 yards so far.  His main target so far has been Justin Scott Wesley, who has a pair of those 25+ yard bombs, and 9 first downs on his 10 catches.  LSU should also watch TE Jordan Lynch, who is averaging 16.3 yards per catch this season.  The Georgia offensive line will need to be better at keeping Murray’s jersey cleaning after allowing a 7.3% adjusted sack rate.

The LSU defense has so far answered all the questions about whether or not they could keep the continuity going for another year with again so many players leaving for the NFL.  They’ve given up just 4.6  yards per play to opposing offenses, and only 3.6 on the ground.  They’ve allowed only 9 TDs through their four games, but have allowed 3 red zone trips a game, and 83.33% of them have been successful.  Ego Ferguson and Anthiny Johnson both have 2.5 tackles for loss to lead the team, and 14 different players have at least .5 TFL.  Jordan Allen leads the team in sacks with 2, and Jemauria Rasco leads the team with 12 QB hurries.  Lamin Barrow leads the team with 22 tackles, 19 of the assists to go along with a pass defended, half a sack and a QB hurry.  The secondary has only 3 Ints, but 21 passes defended, lead by Dwayne Thomas who has 4. 

When LSU has the ball:

One of the biggest surprises this college season has been the efficiency of Zach Mettenberger.  Zach is currently averaging 11.3 yards per attempt, with a 64.8% completion rating and 10 TDs with just a single int on his 91 attempts so far.  He;s gone 16 for 30 on converting his third down passes, and has 29 passes of 15 yards or more.  The emergence of Odell Beckham Jr. and Jarvis Landry has gone hand in hand with Mettenberger’s breakout.  Beckham has averaged nearly 20 yards per catch with 6 catches of 25 yards or more, whiel Jarvis Landry has been the third down machine, converting all 10 of his catches.  Jeremy Hill running the ball has been everything everyone expected, averaging 8.4 yards per carry with 12 carries of 10 yards or more and a punishing 6 yards per carry in the red zone.  The offensive line has been fantastic in both pass protection (just 6 pressure/sacks all season) and in opening holes for the run game.

Georgia’s defense has been much less heralded, but this unit has been solid against a couple of the nation;s best offensive attacks.  They’ve given up 5.7 yards per play, and have allowed 10 red zone drives all season. (but they’ve stopped just 1 of them).  They do make plays in the backfield, with 17 players recording .5 tackles for loss, and 5 sacks so far.  Jordan Jenkins has 4 tackles for loss to lead the team amongst his 15 stops, and has 4 QB hurries as well.  LB Leonard Floyd has 2 sacks to lead the team, but should have more after posting 7 QB hurries so far.  Ramik Wilson leads the team with 31 tackles (2.5 for loss), while fellow backer Amarlo Herrera has 30 tackles and leads the team in passes defended with 3.  Tray Mathews has the only interception for the defense

What’s our take:

LSU so far has done what they’ve been asked, dominating weaker opponents (TCU has been possibly their most talnted opponent and is 1-2).  Georgia has played two very close games with top top tier teams, and has been very impressive and very flat at different points.  LSU has had problems with teams converting third downs at better than a 40% rate, and they have not brought the pressure in the passing game.  But Georgia’s defense has surrendered 30 points twice already this season, and the Tigers are an extremely big physical team.  Pretty easily should be the game of the weekend.  

Dos Free Picks

The Play: Nevada -10 vs. Air Force

Porque?

-The Wolfpack are at home and will face a banged up Air Force team that will need all the help they can get against Cody Fajardo and Nevada's air attack. Air Force's main troubles go beyond their injuries as starting QB Jaleel Awini has been ruled out due to a suspension. Awini has been the team's main playmaker after taking over for Kale Pearson behind center. Pearson remains injured so the Falcons will have to get creative.

-On the otherside, the Wolfpack have largely struggled to due defensive lapses and the health of QB Cody Fajardo. They've listed Fajardo as probable which will make all the difference for a team looking to go 2-0 in conference play. Kendall Brock will need to step up his game in the backfield and will be an integral part in settling Fajardo back into the lineup. Brock Hekking has the teams only 3 sacks on the season. While they won't have much of an opportunity to sack the QB against the option, they'll need to overpower a depleted line for the cover.


The Play: New Mexico State +17.5 vs. San Diego State

Porque?

-For one, the 0-3 Aztecs have absolutely no business being 3 score road favorites to anyone. While the Aggies aren't world beaters, they've played much stiffer competition (UCLA, Minnesota, Texas) and should welcome the steep drop in class. This is the same San Diego State team that lost by 21 points to FCS Eastern Illinois. Quinn Kaehler has taken over for an ineffective Adam Dingwell, but hasn't fared very well. RB Adam Muema who had a breakthrough season last year is only averaging 3 yards per carry.

-The two man QB tandem of King Davis III and Andrew McDonald hasn't been terrible for New Mexico State. McDonald is completing 70% of his passes and has 4 TDs to 2 INTs. Davis III is used primarily in a rushing role and has 111 yards on 22 carries. Germi Morrison and Brandon Betancourt fill out the backfield and have been largely ineffective, but should have an easier time this week against a weak defense. Speaking of defenses, while their team has allowed a boatload of points, they've been opportunistic picking the ball off 6 times.

Oklahoma State vs West Virginia: Preview and Players

By: Rich Douglas

This Big 12 battle is equally important for both schools, as Oklahoma State battles to establish an identity and try to lock up the conference title.  West Virginia has to rebound after whats been a pretty disastrous start to the season.

When Oklahoma State  has the ball:

The Cowboys offense spent basically one half slumping this season, the first half against Mississippi State.  Since then they’ve rolled just as they have for years.  They currently average 6.6 yards per play, 4.8 on the ground and 8.3 through the air.  They’ve converted 55.6% of their third downs, and have scored on all 15 of their red zone trips.  It started with eh switch to JW Walsh, who is compelting 70.2% of his passes for 642 yards and 5 TDs with just a single Int.  Walsh brought the added threat of a mobile QB and one that was able to avoid the rush, averaging 7.28 yards per rush, while being sacked just twice and hurried only 6 times.  Wideout Josh Stewart has converted all of his third down catches for first downs, and has had 10 of his 12 catches result in firsts.  Walsh has also found Jhajuan Seales 11 times for 123 yards, while Blake Jackson has had half of his catches go for 15 yards or more.  Senior RB Jeremy Smith has averaged 4.76 yards per carry and scored 6 times, averaging 4.4 yards per attempt in the red zone.

The Mountaineers defense has actually had a very solid season so far.  They limited Oklahoma to just 16 points despite Maryland scoring 37 points, held them to just 4.6 yards per play.  They’ve been somewhat vulnerable to big run plays though, ranking 116^th after giving up 28 of those runs.  They’ve made plenty of plays in the backfield, with 28 tackles for loss lead by Will Clarke, a senior with 12 total tackles (5.5 for loss) and 3 sacks.  Sophomore LB Nick Kwiatkoski leads the team with 29 stops, and Darwin Cook who has 20 solo tackles from his safety position.  Cook also leads the team with 2 picks, while KJ Dillon and Daryl Worley both have 3 passes defended.

When West Virginia has the ball:

The Mountaineers offense came into the season with questions about whether or not they could sustain their start from last season without Geno Smith.  The answer so far has been a resounding no, as they’ve averaged under 6 yards per play on offense and converted just an abysmal 28.9% of their third down attempts.  Currently Ford Childress is going to continue starting, after completing just 57.1% of his passes for 6.7 yards per attempt with 3 TDs and 3 Ints.  He has been decent on third downs, converting 5 of his 17 attempts, and 4 of his 10 in the 4-9 yards to go range.  This Qb shuffle hasn’t stopped big plays from happening for the receivers though, as both Ronald Carswell and Ivan McCartney are averaging over 15 yards a catch (21.8 and 15.3 respectively).  With Daikiel Shorts playing the possession receiver with 12.6 yards per catch, they have made some plays.  The run game has actually been a strength this year, pcikign up 32 first downs so far.  Charles Sims and Dreamius Smith are both having good years, averaging 5.5 and 6.4 yards per carry respectively with a combined 4 TDs. 

The Pokes have been able to lock opponents down, allowing just 13.7 points per game.  They’ve held third down conversions to just 28.3%, despite allowing opponents have have an 11 minute advantage in time of possession.  They’ve also kept teams out of the redzone with just 8 trips, and only 5 of them have succeeded in scoring.  16 players have logged at least . 5 TFL, with senior LB Caleb Lavey leading with 3.5.  Lavey has 21 total tackles, tied for the team lead with S Daytawion Lowe.  Fellow Safety Shamiel Gary has 3 passes defended, and 4 players each have an Int.  The only place they could be improved is that they’ve only generated 7 sacks and 11 QB hurries so far, Calvin Barnett leading the way with 2  hurries and tallying a sack. 

What’s our take:

The Cowboys are the better team, and its not really close.  Their offense though matches up against a WVU defense that has been slightly underrated despite giving up some big plays.  The OK State defense is pretty good, and the Mountaineers aren’t scaring anyone with a RS Freshman starting at QB.  Should be pretty straight forward for Ok State to pull away in this one.

Toledo at Ball State: Preview, Players and Picks

By: Rich Douglas

In what should be an exciting matchup in the MAC’s Western divison, two explosive offenses square off when Ball State visits Toledo on Saturday.

When Toledo has the ball:

The Rockets started the year with a pair of tough SEC opponents, starting with an 0-2 record.  However, after scoring just 6 points in Gainesville, Toledo has been able to average well over 6 yards per offensive play and pick up   first downs while averaging 31 points per game.  With QB Terrance Owens hobbled with injury, the offense has rested on the legs of David Fluellen, the Senior 215 pound RB.  Fluellen has averaged 6.3 yards per carry this season, scoring 4 times and posting 16 runs of 10 yards or more.  He already has three 100 yard games, while averaging nearly 6 yards per carry in the maroon zone (opponents 40 yard line and in).  Terrance Owens did return this last week part way through the game and looked much more confident than he did against Mizzou when he tossed 3 Ints.  Against CMU Owens completed 13 of his 17 passes for 8.2 yards per attempt.  He’ll continue to look down field for Bernard Reedy, who has 5 catches of 15 yards or more already this season while averaging 11.2 yards per catch.

Ball State’s defense this year has allowed just 5.4 yards per play, despite opponents owning a 9 minute advantage in time of possession.  It’s a bit surprising that they've kept teams to such an averaged efficiency, since they’ve converted 43% of their third down attempts.  The Cardinals do have 23 tackles for loss already, lead by DT Nathan Ollie who has 4.5 of them to lead the team.  Ollie is also tied for the team lead in sacks with 1.5, and second to Jonathan Newsome’s 5 QB hurries with 3 of his own.  Freshman backer Zack Ryan has 35 tackles already, 2.5 of them for loss with 1.5 sacks  and a pass defended.  In the secondary, freshman Matez Hester has an Int and a pass broken up to go with 21 tackles. 

When Ball State has the ball:

Keith Wenning might be the best QB in the MAC this year, with the Senior completing 62.3% of his passes for 9 yards per attempt with 9 TDs and just 2 Ints.  He’s been the man on third downs, completing 70% of his passes for 10 yards per attempt, converting 55%  of his attempts.  Willie Snead and Jamill Smith are bot benefitting greatly from Wenning’s hot start, averaging over 17 yards per catch and combining for 5 TD catches.  The team ranks 6^th in the nation overall in big passig plays, with 31 catches of 15 yards or more.  The run game has been solid as well, with sophomore back Horactio Banks averaging over 6.6 yards per carry with 5 TDs so far.  Banks has done most of his damage early in games averaging 10 yards per carry in the first half, while his battery mate Jahwan Edwards has bruised at the goalline, averaging 4 yards a carry inside the redzone.  The offensive line has been rock solid, allowing just 5 sacks and 10 QB hurries so far. 

The Toledo defense has been decent so far, with this matchup likely being the toughest matchup outside of Mizzou they’ll face.  Opponent’s have been able to muster just 5.7 yards per play, but have also allowed a 43.75% conversion rate on third downs.  They’ve made plenty of plays in the backfield, posting 24 tackles for loss (117 yards).  DE Jayrone Elliot and Chase Murdock lead the team with 5 TFL apiece; Elliot posting 3 sacks amongst his total while Murdock has made 33 stops and posted 3 sacks as well.  Junior Sylvestre leads the team with his 43 tackles, and has a pass defended and an Int. 

What’s our Take:

This game is going to be a high scoring affair.  Toledo has allowed opposing passers to complete 61% of their passes for over 8 yards per attempt.  Ball State has allowed 3 games of over 200 yards rushing, and the only team they held under 4.6 yards per carry was Illinois State to whom they still surrendered 28 points.  Expect a  shootout and take the Over 66.5

Rice vs FAU: Preview and Players

By: Rich Douglas

Rice has fallen to 1-2 on the season despite putting up some gutsy performances against some good competition.  Their hopes in C-USA play really begin with being able to beat an FAU squad that play competitively a week after picking up their first win against MTSU.  It’s a battle for who is the better Owl.

When Rice has the ball:

The Owls have averaged 5.4 yards per play on offense this season, and have scored on every red zone trip they’ve made.  The downside is that they’ve only made 9 trips in their three games so far, and the kicking game has been erratic (57.1% converted).  QB Taylor McHargue has been erratic this season, averaging just 6 yards per attempt with 5 Ints and just a 55.2% completion rate.  He hasn’t inspired much confidence in the maroon zone, completing only 10 of his 24 attempts with 141 total yards with 2 TDs and 2 Ints. The big play threat is present though, with both Dennis Parks and Turner Petersen averaging big gains at 18.8 and 20.4 yards per catch respectively. Luckily the run game has been there to make up for it, lead by Senior Charles Ross.  Ross has a 5.8 yards per attempt average and has scored 4 times.  He also has 12 runs of 10 yards or more, and has averaged 3.6 yards per carry in the red zone. 

The FAU defense has kept opponents from going too wild, allowing just 5.7 yards per play and limiting red zone success to just 76.5%.  They average 5.25 tackles for loss per game, lead by LB Adarious Glanton.  Glanton has 4.5 TFL amongst his 35 stops, which also leads the team.  The defensive front needs help pressuring opposing passers, with a 6.1% adjusted sack rate, with only 3 QB hurries on the season.  The secondary has some ball hawking capability, lead by D’Joun Smith who has 2 Ints and 6 passes defended with 11 tackles.

When FAU has the ball:

The Owls offense has not gone so much this season.  QB Jaquez Johnson play average ball, completing 60% of his passes, but for only 5.6 yards per attempt with 4 Ints to 3 TDs.  The offensive line hasn’t helped him much, allowing 7 sacks and 11 hurries so far on his 96 dropbacks.    The lack of a true deep threat hasn’t hurt the team in its ability to convert third downs, where they've converted at a 43% rate.  Top wideouts William Dukes and Daniel Mckinney  have each converted all of their third down catches for first downs.   RB Jonathon Wallace has averaged 4.3 yards per carry, and has 4 runs of 10 yards or more. 

Rice has not played very good defense on the surface.  They’ve given up 6.2 Yards per play on offense and allowed teams to score every time they’ve reached the red zone.  They’ve been able to rack up 16 tackles for loss in their 3 contests, lead by Christian Covington, a sophomore DT who has 4.5 stops in the backfield.  The secondary has played well despite getting almost no pass rush, defending 19 passes so far.  Paul Porras and Julius White each have 4 passes defended, and Bryce Callahan has an Int to go with his 3 pass break ups.  LB Michhael Kutzler leads the team with 23 tackles and has 2 sacks with an Int as a do it all player. 

What’s our take:

The books opened with Rice as heavy favorites, and they have looked the part at times this year.  And FAU’s offense just does not score, getting themselves bogged down some penalties (115 yards handed back)and a completely nonexplosive passing game.  But Rice’s defense hasn’t been strong, barely holding on against KU, and Taylor McHargue has been pretty underwhelming.  Rice should still win, but we wouldn’t be surprised if its closer than people expect.

Virginia Tech vs Georgia Tech: Preview, Players and Picks

By: Rich Douglas

The battle for the Coastal division of the ACC gets started on Thursday night this week, and for the preseason favorite Hokies it might be their one chance to stay ahead of the surprisingly efficient Georgia Tech team

When the Jackets have the ball:

Everyone knows GT is one of the last remaining true triple option teams.  They’ve used that attack to roll up 1036 yards so fr, good for 5.76 yards per attempt.  Senior David Sims  leads the crowded backfield (at least 5 players have 10+ carries) with 211 yards.  Sims has been bruising in the redzone, averaging 3.8 yards per attempt, and likely could see more with his 225 pound frame.  QB Vad Lee has more carries than pass attempts (58 to 39), but has been much more efficient through the air.  Hes averaging just 3.8 yards per carry, but is hitting the long plays in the passing game, averaging 10.2 yards per attempt.  More importantly, he’s only tossed a single interception.  The most explosive player on the field is likely RB Robert Godhigh, a player that shows good explosion in the run and pass game.  He has 6 runs of 10 yards or more in just 14 carries, and is the second leading receiver on the team with 5 catches, 3 of them for more than 15 yards. 

Luckily for the Hokies, stopping the run has been their specialty this season.  No team (including ‘Bama) has averaged better than 2.9 yards per attempt against the VT front.  The defense has been amazing at swarming to the football, with 164 assisted tackles being recorded (opposed to 117 solo).  OLB Jack Tyler has 4.5 tackles for loss to go with 9 solo and 24 assisted tackles.  Leading the charge up front are a pair of Senior linemen, JR Collins and Derrick Hopkins.  Collins has 4.5 sacks so far, while Hopkins has added 4.5 tackles for loss.  The team has harassed opposing QBs to the tune of 34 QB hurries already.  In the secondary, Kyle Fuller has 6 passes defended already, while Freshman CB Brandon Facsyon likely wont get targeted too often after he’s already picked off 3 passes. 

When the Hokies have the ball:

One of the biggest disappointments of this season has got to be the performance of Logan Thomas.  The once highly touted QB is completing just 48.5% of his passes for only 5.2 yards per attempt with 6 Ints already.  His third down numbers are just downright awful, with just a 39.6% completion rate, and just 1 in 3 of his passes convert the drive.   This hasn't helped Demitri Knowles, a Sophomore that last year showed explosive capability but is now averaging just 9.5 yards per catch.   Luckily for VT, Freshman backs Trey Edmunds and Chris Mangus have provided offense.  The pair have run for 469 yards with 4 TDs between them and a better than 5 yards per carry mark.  The run game though has only converted 29%  of its third down attempts. 

The Jackets defense has been stellar so far allowing just 4.5 yards per play to opposing offenses, and allowing just a 32% conversion rate on third downs.  Tech is also amongst the leaders in limiting big plays, with just 11 pass plays over 15 yards allowed and only 9 runs of 10 yards or more.  Its good, since they've only tallied 12 tackles for loss.  Adam Gotsis has 3 of those, amongst his 11 total tackles.  Senior backer Brandon Watts has 19 tackles to lead the team.  Tech also hasn’t been able to pressure opposing QBs very much, with Jeremiah Attaochu leading the team with just 1 sack and 1 QB hurry.  Louis Young is the leader in the secondary, with 3 passes defended, 1 int and 9 tackles. 

Whats Our take:

The Hokies are going to be desperate.  Their offense has been miserable and wont be able to generate many big plays against a fundamentally sound GT defense.  It should be a low scoring affair, with GT running the ball as much as they do, and VT defending the run as well as they do.  VT has a shambles of a kicking game, converting just 50% of their field goals.  The GT special teams haven’t been much either, so field position will be at a premium as well.  VT starts the week as 7.5 underdogs,  which could happen just because this is the kind of game where low scores mean bad things happen to favorites.  But the Under 41.5 is the smart play.

Are the Buccaneers really that bad?

By: Rich Douglas

Especially in the beginning of the season when teams have played justa few games, some of our analysis leads to outliers in how we rate teams.  The Bucs are one of those this team this season, showing up much higher than we had expected.  They're 0-2, and all the rumors of the team abandoning head coach Greg Schiano are already swirling and bringing a real negative image of the team.  But are the Bucs really that bad?

The offensive has looked the part so far.  Averaging under 20 yards per drive (30th in the league) and just 1 point per drive is certainly not going to get it done in a division that has both the Saints and Falcons in it.  Josh Freeman has shouldered a lot of this blame, and he certainly deserves his share.  He's been brutally bad in the second halves of games, completing 9 of his 28 attempts for under 200 yards.  Josh has also only hit 4 of his 17 down field passes.  The receivers haven't helped much either, totaling more than 5 drops already through their two games.  The run game hasn't been there either though, with Doug Martin averaging under 3.9 yards per attempt, and has been stuffed 5 times, tied for 8th amongst NFL backs.

Luckily though the defense certainly isn't.  In consecutive weeks its just down opposing offense almost completely, forcing 3 and outs on 24% of their drives.  They're allowing just 8% of those drives that continue to score TDs, third best in the NFL  They've also been the best redzone defense in the league allowing only 3.17 points per trip.  Lavonte David is tied for 6th so far with 3 tackles for loss, and Dashon Goldson is a leader in solo tackles with 14 already.  In the second half against the Saints, they allowed just 3 of the drives to gain more than 10 yards, and on one of them converted a pick 6.  The defense so far has easily been a playoff caliber effort, if not one that could take a team to a conference championship.

There are some indicators though that could save the offense and take this team forward.  One would certainly be the return of Carl Nicks to the offensive line.  The group has struggled to create holes, but theyve been perfect so far in power situations.  Nicks return should help cut the stuff rate dramatically..  The line has also been fairly good at protecting Freeman, keeping the sack rate in the middle of the league at 6.3%.  And Freeman himself has been solid on third downs, especially third and long where he's completing 72.7% of his passes for over 11 yards per attempt.  If he also can start completing his deeper pass at his career 45% rate, things will look up immediately.

The Bucs will have a lot to prove this weekend in Foxburough.  The defense should be able to hold down a Pats offense that has picked up just 1.27 points per drive, despite starting with some of the best average field position (their own 33) in the league.  If the offense can get a little momentum, the team from Tampa Bay can surprise a lot of folks.

NCAA Week 4 Preview and Free Picks

By: Rich Douglas

Week 4 of the college season is already upon us, as most teams will play their last non-conference tilt, while there are some that are engaging in some interesting conference battles

Boise State at Fresno State -3
The Mountain West has had a rough start to the year in regards to covering against non conference opponents, but this in conference matchup seems pretty clear to me. Fresno State is coming off of an unscheduled bye after their game against Colorado was postponed and Derek Carr should pick apart a Boise State secondary that looked miserable against Washington and even got fooled against an anemic Air Force passing attack. Boise's front 7 gave up over 200 yards rushing to both Washington's standard rushing offense as well as Air Force's complex triple option. Either way you cut it, Fresno's high powered offense should blow by the Broncos at home.

West Virginia at Maryland (-6.5)
The Terrapins have quietly moved themselves to be one of the better teams in the ACC, averaging over 40 points a game so far, and racking up 7.9 yards per play on offense.  Its been the health of QB CJ Brown, who's completing passes at a 67.1% rate for over 11 yards per attempt.  Brown has been getting it done with his feet as well, rushing for 257 yards and 5 TDs.  The offensive line has done its part to keep Brown healthy, allowing just 4 sacks and not a single pressure through the 3 games.  The Maryland defense will be tested by WVU, but Dan Holgerson's squad is not nearly the explosive monster it has been.  The Mountaineers average 6.4 yards per play, but have converted just 32.5% of their third downs, and have just 8 red zone trips all season.  The offensive line will be under fire as well, with the Terps amassing 14 sacks already, and WVU surrendering 5 sacks and 6 more hurries so far.

Marshall (+9) at Virginia Tech
The Hokies have been one of the more frustrating teams to watch this season.   The defense is one of the best in the nation, forcing opponents to convert just 27% of their third down attempts, and to be able to run for just 2.5 yards per attempt.  The offense though has been pretty near inept, with Logan Thomas completing only 47 passes this season for just 5.2 yards per attempt with 4 Ints to 3 TDs.  This is why the Thundering Herd have a good chance to cover, and possibly shock VT, because their defense is better than advertised.  Last week against Ohio, the Herd defense got hamstrung by a few offensive miscues and a special teams score.  The offense of course is there for Marshall, with Rakeem Cato airing it out to the tune of a 64% completion rate with 8 yards per attempt, tossing 7 TDs and just 2 Ints.  The run game will also test that VT front, with Steward Butler averaging over 9 yards per carry in limited touches, and Essray Taliaferro averaging 3.2 yards per carry in the redzone.

San Jose St. +4 at Minnesota
David Fales is one of the most underrated QBs in the league and I think this high powered offensive attack should have no problem against the Gophers. After shutting out a weak Sac State team, they ran into the buzzsaw that is Stanford, but were still able to cover the game. Fales will have a much easier time coming off of a bye and against a Minnesota team that might have the weakest schedule in their 3 games this season. In their wins against UNLV, New Mexico State, and Western Illinois, they were only able to cover against UNLV and were down late in the 3rd quarter against Western Illinois last week. Their pass game is very weak, and I expect them to lose the game out right. Take the points.

NCAA Week 3 Preview and Free Picks

By: Rich Douglas

We've got our week 3 preview here, featuring 4 games from around the nation that provide some good value both for watching and playing.

TCU at Texas Tech (+3)
The Red Raiders so far this season have taken care of business against both opponents.  Baker Mayfield has completed 71.1% of his passes for over 8.7 yards per attempt, without tossing a pick yet.
He's been impeccable on third downs as well, converting 12 of 15 attempts with 4 plays of  15 yards or more.  TCU was not so good stopping third down conversions against LSU, allowing 13 of the Tigers 19 attempts to convert.  The TCU LBs are also not great in coverage, where they will need to be against Jace Amaro, who in just 6 quarters of action is averaging 16.7 yards per catch.  The Red Raiders defense has also been very stout against the run, with 16 tackles for loss already and allowing just 2.7 yards per attempt on the ground.  This will be necessary to force the game out of BJ Catalon's hands after his 5.84 yards per attempt performance so far, and into the hands of Trevone Boykin, making his first start at QB this season.


BGSU (+2.5) at Indiana
The Hoosiers started the season explosively by putting up 73 points against Indiana State.  They followed it up with a solid offensive performance against Navy, despite falling to the Midshipmen by 6.  The Falcons though have shown they are equipped to stop offenses, holding opponents so far to just 14.5 points per game.  They've done it by limiting plays on the ground from getting out of hand with just 4 run plays of 10 yards or more, ranking 13th in the nation.  The Falcons have only allowed 3.6 yards per run in all situations, with LB Gabe Martin second on the team with 11 tackles and 2 of them for loss.  The Hoosiers also have not really been tested in the passing game, where QB Matt Johnson has stepped in and dominated for the Falcons, averaging 10.6 yards per attempt and completing 62.5% of his passes.  The Falcons do need to be wary of protecting their Sophomore QB, already having allowed 4 sacks.


UCF +5.5 at Penn State
A strong Knights team strolls into Happy Valley after outscoring Akron and FIU 76-7. Blake Bortles has begun this season just as he finished last season as the accurate passer has now 217 consecutive throws without throwing an interception. Bortles can also make plays with his feet as well, but will mainly rely on RB Storm Johnson to break up the Nittany Lion front 7. Johnson has found the endzone 5 times which is tied for the national lead early on in the season. The run defense will have to come up big for UCF as Penn State has 3 rushers who have already topped 100 yards on the season. They held FIU to just 31 yards rushing last week and while the competition is a few steps up, UCF should be able to contain the Penn State offense in more ways than one. PSU has already shown cracks in their line as they've already allowed 7 sacks. Take the points and bet UCF.


Wisconsin at Arizona State -5
The Sun Devils look to be in a great spot to win the Pac 12 South after USC's demise last week to Washington State. A big non conference win against the Badgers would turn them into a legitimate contender. Taylor Kelly is arguably the best passer in the Pac 12 as he made a weak Sacramento State secondary look terrible after throwing for 300 yards with 5 TDs and 0 INTs. Marion Grice, DJ Foster and Deantre Lewis will be sharing time in the backfield and will look to wear out a Badger defense that is allowing just 72 yards per game and 2.3 yards per carry. The up tempo pace will be something Wisconsin won't be able to keep up with as the often overlooked Sun Devil offense is very explosive. The defense will be key in covering this game and will need to stop an always talented Badger rush attack. Still, I don't think Stave is good enough to manage the game and keep the ball out of the hands of ASU's offense. Look for the Sun Devils to win by at least a touchdown.

NCAA Week 2 Preview and picks

By: Rich Douglas

Once conference play starts, we'll break down a match up from each conference that we think presents great entertainment and betting value.  Since most teams are playing non conference games (and a lot of cupcakes), we're just going to go around the league and quickly break down several games with solid value.

Toledo (+17) at Mizzou

The Rockets were only able to put up 6 points against Florida, and QB Terrance Owens completed just 44.7% of his passes.  This though was against one of the best defenses in the country in the Gators, and it occurred in Gainesville.  David Fluellen was able to average over 5 yards per caryr on his limited attempts, including 2 runs of more than 10 yards.  The defense looked shaky early on, but allowed just one TD in the second half, and allowed under 5 yards per pass attempt int he second half with just 1 third down conversion passing all day.  Mizzou is still a little tough to get a ready on since they played Murray State, so the thumping they put on doesn't tell us much if the concerns about the defense have been mitigated completely.  Florida though is the much better team, and so we expect Toledo to play up to their potential in this week's match up.  

Colorado State at Tulsa (-10)

Both of these teams are coming off stinging losses for different reasons.  The Rams lost to in state rivals CU in a  game where they had two special teams TDs, but could garner just 4.4 yards per play on offense, and converted just 14% of their third down attempts.  The defense also gave up big plays in the passing game (6 of 15+) and could not get off the field on third downs, allowing a 40% conversion rate.  Tulsa on the other hand struggled to get anything going against a tough Bowling Green defense, managing just 2.1 yards per carry in the run game and the passing game didn't fair much better as the QBs combined for just a 48.8% completion rate and 5.4 yards per attempt.  However, the defense was not nearly as bad as the 34 points would look, since Tulsa lost 2 fumbles and allowed a punt return for a TD.  They allowed just a 42% completion rate and picked off a pass while generating 3 QB hurries and a sack.  If CSU can't get leverage in the special teams game, Tulsa should be able to right the ship this weekend at home.  

Texas (-7) at BYU

Texas struggled for the first half of the game with the score at 14-7 at half time against New Mexico State.  David Ash then turned it on in the second half, going 8-11 with 156 yards and 2 tds with no ints.  The running game also put together more big plays with 9 runs of over 10 yards and scoring 4 times, while averaging 5 yards per carry in the red zone.  The defense played well all game, recording 6 tackles for loss and allowing just 4.1 yards per offensive play for NMSU.  BYU on the other hand struggled and lost to ACC bottom Virginia, averaging just 3.9 yards per play on offense.  QB Taysom Hill averaged just 4.4 yards per attempt and completed only 32.5% of his passes.  The BYU defense did its best, keeping the opposing passing game to just 3.6 yards per attempt, but it wont be anything like they'll face against Texas.

South Carolina at Georgia -3.5 
Everyone is down on this Bulldog team, but are failing to point out that those weren't the Clemson Tigers you've grown accustomed to watching through the years. Georgia takes a big step down in competition this week on the offensive side of the ball as not even Steve Spurrier completely trusts his starting QB Connor Wood. While Wood has been known to improvise and make a few big plays, he's terrible at reading coverage and has little patience as plays develop. The dual threat QB relies on his feet far too much. On the flipside, Aaron Murray is a legitimate pro prospect and is far more impressive in moving the ball down the field. The Gamecock defense worries me a bit as Jadaveon Clowney and the rest of the big boys could cause trouble for a banged up Georgia O-Line, but I think there are just way too many options on offense for Georgia and far too few for South Carolina to keep them in this one.

San Jose St (+26) at Stanford
Now I realize that Stanford is one of the top 5 teams in the nation. Junior Kevin Hogan seems to fit perfectly in their run first offense behind their elite offensive line, but I expect a relatively slow start in their first game of the season. Make no mistake of San Jose St, this is a talented team even without former head coach Mike MacIntyre who is in Colorado now. David Fales was the most accurate QB in the entire country last year, and while he looked a bit out of sync against FCS Sacramento State, I expect him to return to form. The Spartans defeated a weak opponent last week 24-0, but the game was well out of reach early. I wouldn't look into the final margin being small as they rushed out to a big lead and finished in cruise control. RB Jason Simpson looked great in his first start, averaging 6 yards per carry, and while he and his Spartans will obviously be moving up drastically in difficulty, this is a team that has won 8 games in a row and should at the very least not get completely blown out.

Bowling Green at Kent State (+7.5)
In the conference opener for both teams, Bowling Green comes in as fairly sizeable road chalk after a dominating performance over Tulsa last week. Our selection is Kent State and while they had trouble against FCS Liberty last week, they were banged up for most of the game and should be at full strength come game time. Star RB Dri Archer will be ready to play and should give the BG defense a tougher task than the depleted Tulsa backfield did. Redshirt Freshman Colin Reardon looked good in his debut completing 21 of 28 passes for 194 yards and 2 TDs. He's got a game under his belt now and should be ready for the bigger challenge. 
 

2013 NFL Division Picks

By: Rich Douglas

Rich:  The NFC West will probably have the best division race in the entire league. The odds are basically split between the top two teams.


Douglas: Agreed, and while 5dimes has a slight edge to the Niners, I'm going to give a slight edge to Seattle. They were the youngest team in the league last year, and they didn't take any significant losses in the offseason, turning over just a third of the roster, 27th in the league


Rich: I'm giving the Seahawks the nod as well. Obviously Russell Wilson is the big story for them, but their 3 man Running Back tandem of Lynch, Michael, and Turbin will stabilize the offense if Wilson has any kind of Sophomore Slump.


Douglas: Agreed.  That offensive line is also ultra efficient, ranking 1st in Stuff rate, with just 15% of their runs getting stuffed, and converting 70% of their power situations, and at +125, I also think they're the best bet in the division, because while St. Louis is improved, they aren't near the other top tier teams

Rich: I'm going to throw out the Arizona Cardinals who are rightfully 33 to 1. The 49ers of course, pose a real threat to Seattle.


Douglas: I do like the Niners with positive EV for the bet.