Toledo at Ball State: Preview, Players and Picks

By: Rich Douglas

In what should be an exciting matchup in the MAC’s Western divison, two explosive offenses square off when Ball State visits Toledo on Saturday.

When Toledo has the ball:

The Rockets started the year with a pair of tough SEC opponents, starting with an 0-2 record.  However, after scoring just 6 points in Gainesville, Toledo has been able to average well over 6 yards per offensive play and pick up   first downs while averaging 31 points per game.  With QB Terrance Owens hobbled with injury, the offense has rested on the legs of David Fluellen, the Senior 215 pound RB.  Fluellen has averaged 6.3 yards per carry this season, scoring 4 times and posting 16 runs of 10 yards or more.  He already has three 100 yard games, while averaging nearly 6 yards per carry in the maroon zone (opponents 40 yard line and in).  Terrance Owens did return this last week part way through the game and looked much more confident than he did against Mizzou when he tossed 3 Ints.  Against CMU Owens completed 13 of his 17 passes for 8.2 yards per attempt.  He’ll continue to look down field for Bernard Reedy, who has 5 catches of 15 yards or more already this season while averaging 11.2 yards per catch.

Ball State’s defense this year has allowed just 5.4 yards per play, despite opponents owning a 9 minute advantage in time of possession.  It’s a bit surprising that they've kept teams to such an averaged efficiency, since they’ve converted 43% of their third down attempts.  The Cardinals do have 23 tackles for loss already, lead by DT Nathan Ollie who has 4.5 of them to lead the team.  Ollie is also tied for the team lead in sacks with 1.5, and second to Jonathan Newsome’s 5 QB hurries with 3 of his own.  Freshman backer Zack Ryan has 35 tackles already, 2.5 of them for loss with 1.5 sacks  and a pass defended.  In the secondary, freshman Matez Hester has an Int and a pass broken up to go with 21 tackles. 

When Ball State has the ball:

Keith Wenning might be the best QB in the MAC this year, with the Senior completing 62.3% of his passes for 9 yards per attempt with 9 TDs and just 2 Ints.  He’s been the man on third downs, completing 70% of his passes for 10 yards per attempt, converting 55%  of his attempts.  Willie Snead and Jamill Smith are bot benefitting greatly from Wenning’s hot start, averaging over 17 yards per catch and combining for 5 TD catches.  The team ranks 6^th in the nation overall in big passig plays, with 31 catches of 15 yards or more.  The run game has been solid as well, with sophomore back Horactio Banks averaging over 6.6 yards per carry with 5 TDs so far.  Banks has done most of his damage early in games averaging 10 yards per carry in the first half, while his battery mate Jahwan Edwards has bruised at the goalline, averaging 4 yards a carry inside the redzone.  The offensive line has been rock solid, allowing just 5 sacks and 10 QB hurries so far. 

The Toledo defense has been decent so far, with this matchup likely being the toughest matchup outside of Mizzou they’ll face.  Opponent’s have been able to muster just 5.7 yards per play, but have also allowed a 43.75% conversion rate on third downs.  They’ve made plenty of plays in the backfield, posting 24 tackles for loss (117 yards).  DE Jayrone Elliot and Chase Murdock lead the team with 5 TFL apiece; Elliot posting 3 sacks amongst his total while Murdock has made 33 stops and posted 3 sacks as well.  Junior Sylvestre leads the team with his 43 tackles, and has a pass defended and an Int. 

What’s our Take:

This game is going to be a high scoring affair.  Toledo has allowed opposing passers to complete 61% of their passes for over 8 yards per attempt.  Ball State has allowed 3 games of over 200 yards rushing, and the only team they held under 4.6 yards per carry was Illinois State to whom they still surrendered 28 points.  Expect a  shootout and take the Over 66.5