ACC Game of the Week Preview and Players to watch: Maryland vs FSU

By: Rich Douglas

At the start of the season no one really would have expected this matchup to have any importance, but Maryland has worked itself into the top 25 this week and will look to knock the ‘Noles and freshman phenom Jameis Winston.

When FSU has the ball:

The Seminoles offense is humming along as one of the best in the country right now, posting 8.5 yards per play as theyeve decimated opponents defenses by scoring 51 poitns a game.  Theyre doing it with some big plays as well, averaging 5.3 plays per drive and 47 yards per drive.  The team can look at Jameis Winston, who has a freshman has been nearly perfect through his first 4 starts.  He;s averaging 11.5 yards per attempt with 12 TDs and just 2 Ints, while completing 73.6% of his passes.  His third down numbers are amazing, with a 60% conversion rate.  In the maroon zone he’s completing 67% of his passes for 8.5 yards per attempt, with 10 Tds and no Ints.  In short, he’s having one of the most amazing freshman campaigns in the past several decades.  His success is evident in the receivers numbers as well, with Kenny Shaw averaging nearly 21 yards per catch on his 18 receptions.  Shaw is looking to blow past his numbers from last year, where he had only 572 yards all season.  His first down rate is improved as well, to 67% of his catches resulting in firsts.  Rashad Greene is the redzone target, with half of the compeltions going to him, and scoring 2 TDs (5 overall).  With teams needing to focus on Winston, the run game has opened up for the three headed monster of Devonta Freema, Karlos Williams and James Wilder Jr.  The three have taken 90 carries for 711 yards, a 7.8 yards per attempt average.  They’ve averaged 4.3 yards per carry in the redzone, scoring on over 25% of their touches.  The offensive line has been the one portion of the offense that has been a disappointment, allowing pressure on 10.6% of the QB dropbacks.

The ‘Terps defense has been much better than expected.  They’ve allowed just 3.98 yards per play on offense, just 10.3 points per game.  The key has been a lock down run defense, which is allowing just 2.88 yards per carry (1.7 in the redzone) and a-.62 average on third downs.  They’ve made a ton of plays in the backfield, totaling 35 tackles for loss this year lead by LB Marcus Whitfiled who has 6.5.  Whitfield has 5.5 sacks to the lead the team, which has tallied 17 through their first 4 games (but just a single QB hurry).  LA Goree has 26 tackles to lead the squad, 3 of them for loss and has a pass defended. The teams biggest question mark in this matchup will be the cornerback, which has seen their best player Dexter McDougle go down with injury and fellow starter Jeremiah Johnson missing time with a toe injury.  Freshman Will Likely though has played big, with 18 tackles and 2 passes defended.  AJ Hendy is the top secondary member with a single Int. 

When Maryland has the ball:

CJ Brown lost all of last season when he had torn ligaments in his knee in Fall camp.  If he hadn’t, Maryland might have started with more acclaim than they did this year.  Brown has been pretty fantastic for the Terps so far, completing 66.7% of his passes for 10.5 yards per attempt with 7 TDs and just a single Int.  He’s converted under half of his third down attempts, but almost everything under 9 yards he’s been able to pcik up, completing 13 of 16 passes with 9 conversions.  He’s been a big reason why the Terps 3 and out percentage is only 33%, better than the Noles 34%.  Stefon Diggs and Deon Long have been the main targets, with 18 and 21 catches respectively.  Diggs has been the deep threat, with his 7 catches of 25 yards or more this season .  Deon Long has played the possession receiver, with 13 of his 21 catches going for first downs and a 12.9 yards per catch average.  The offensive line has allowed this passing game to flourish, with just a 5% adjusted sack rate.  Brow has also been one of the team’s best runners, averaging 6.3 yards per carry and has scored 6 times.  RB Brandon Ross leads the team though with 66 carries and has averaged 5 yards per carry in his own right.  Ross has 17 runs of 10 yards or more.

The FSU defense limited opponents to a 34% conversion rate on third downs and just a 75% conversion rate in the redzone (with just 12 trips in the 4 games).  Senior backer Telvin Smith leads the team with 27 tackles, 4 of them for loss and has an Int with a sack and a QB hurry.  The secondary has done its job, allowing just 10 yards per catch with 6 passing TDs on 97 passes attempted against them, with 6 Ints.  Lamarcus Joyner has 2 passes defended to go with his 24 tackles.  Joyner also leads the team with a pair of sacks, answering the preseason question of which front seven player would provide pass rush with no clear answer yet.  DT Timmy Jernigan has a sack and a QB hurry, but the front seven needs to find more pass rush.

What’s our take:

Prior to this week, I think everyone looked at this game as a ho-hum affair with FSU just trouncing Maryland.  However, a lot changed when Maryland blanked WVU (who then surprised Ok State) and FSU fell down big to BC.  FSU likely still prevails, but we don’t think it will get decided until the 4^th quarter.