Are the Buccaneers really that bad?

By: Rich Douglas

Especially in the beginning of the season when teams have played justa few games, some of our analysis leads to outliers in how we rate teams.  The Bucs are one of those this team this season, showing up much higher than we had expected.  They're 0-2, and all the rumors of the team abandoning head coach Greg Schiano are already swirling and bringing a real negative image of the team.  But are the Bucs really that bad?

The offensive has looked the part so far.  Averaging under 20 yards per drive (30th in the league) and just 1 point per drive is certainly not going to get it done in a division that has both the Saints and Falcons in it.  Josh Freeman has shouldered a lot of this blame, and he certainly deserves his share.  He's been brutally bad in the second halves of games, completing 9 of his 28 attempts for under 200 yards.  Josh has also only hit 4 of his 17 down field passes.  The receivers haven't helped much either, totaling more than 5 drops already through their two games.  The run game hasn't been there either though, with Doug Martin averaging under 3.9 yards per attempt, and has been stuffed 5 times, tied for 8th amongst NFL backs.

Luckily though the defense certainly isn't.  In consecutive weeks its just down opposing offense almost completely, forcing 3 and outs on 24% of their drives.  They're allowing just 8% of those drives that continue to score TDs, third best in the NFL  They've also been the best redzone defense in the league allowing only 3.17 points per trip.  Lavonte David is tied for 6th so far with 3 tackles for loss, and Dashon Goldson is a leader in solo tackles with 14 already.  In the second half against the Saints, they allowed just 3 of the drives to gain more than 10 yards, and on one of them converted a pick 6.  The defense so far has easily been a playoff caliber effort, if not one that could take a team to a conference championship.

There are some indicators though that could save the offense and take this team forward.  One would certainly be the return of Carl Nicks to the offensive line.  The group has struggled to create holes, but theyve been perfect so far in power situations.  Nicks return should help cut the stuff rate dramatically..  The line has also been fairly good at protecting Freeman, keeping the sack rate in the middle of the league at 6.3%.  And Freeman himself has been solid on third downs, especially third and long where he's completing 72.7% of his passes for over 11 yards per attempt.  If he also can start completing his deeper pass at his career 45% rate, things will look up immediately.

The Bucs will have a lot to prove this weekend in Foxburough.  The defense should be able to hold down a Pats offense that has picked up just 1.27 points per drive, despite starting with some of the best average field position (their own 33) in the league.  If the offense can get a little momentum, the team from Tampa Bay can surprise a lot of folks.