Big Ten Game of the Week: Ohio State at Michigan

At the beginning of the season, there was a lot of talk of how this Ohio State Michigan match up could be being played again in just a few weeks to determine who was going to be heading to Pasadena.  Ohio State held up its end of the bargain, ranking #3 in the BCS and currently sitting at 11-0.  Michigan though has stumbled its way to a 3-4 conference record, and currently sitting second to last in the Legends division.

Ohio State holds a clear advantage on both sides of the ball averaging nearly twice as many yards per drive and allowing a tackle for loss on less than half the plays.

The other place the difference on offense shows up is in the running games.  Carlos Hyde and Braxton Miller have combined to carry the ball 254 times for an average of 7.1 yards per carry.  That pair has 18 touchdowns on the ground, and the team overall has 36.  Fitzgerald Toussaint and Devin Gardner have run 334 times, for just 3.3 yards per carry (just barely over 1000 overall).  They have been able to finish more drives than Miller and Hyde, scoring 21 touchdowns.  This running difference has lead to the difference in the team's three and out rates, where Ohio State has done it on just 14 total drives, whereas Michigan does it on 23% of their dives.

Defensively the teams are slightly closer statistically speaking, even though Michigan does allow more success in the redzone.  Both teams are fairly adept at forcing turnovers, Michigan with 19 and Ohio State with 20.  The Buckeyes have defended more passes (49-31), lead by Bradley Roby who has 12 defended and 3 interceptions this season.  However, Michigan has forced a lower completion percentage by opposing passers, allowing just 55.2% of them to be completed.  

Rivalry games always have a way of allowing funny things to happen, but Michigan is going to need a lot of magic and luck to stop the Buckeyes from winning this game and vying for a National Championship appearance.  

NBA Weekly Comparison Chart Nov. 28

Our weekly NBA graphical of the necessary stats.  Have a Happy Thanksgiving!

• The Pacers and Spurs lead the league in points per game differential at 10.8, the Jazz are worst in the league at -10.7 points per game.
• The Rockets are one of the league's best offenses, and quietly are one of the best teams in terms of defensive efficiency.  
• The Sixers run the fastest, averaging 102.3 possessions per game.  The Grizzlies are the slowest at just 92.7 per game.

SEC Games to Watch Week 14

The SEC features a pair of games this week that are sure to be show stoppers.  One is an old rivalry, the Iron Bowl played between Alabama and Auburn that has national title implications.  And a game for the SEC newcomers pitting Texas A&M at Mizzou.

Alabama at Auburn:
Its almost insane to think that prior to this season starting most fans would have dismissed the Iron Bowl as just another chance for Alabama to pad a national title resume.  BUt these Tigers under Gus Malzahn are dangerous on offense, gaining 7 yards per play and scoring 39 points a game.  They've averaged 38.1 yards per drive, despite going three and out on 16.9% of those drives.  Theyve done it on the ground, most of the action going to Tre Mason and QB Nick Marshall.  Mason has been stellar all seaosn, rushing for over the century mark in six games so far while converting 15 of his 19 third and short attempts.  Marshall has been a fine runner, but his passing will need to shine if Auburn wants to pull the upset because a 58.4% completion rate with just 9 Tds to 4 Ints wont get it done.  The Crimson Tide have looked more vulnerable at times this season, but still have held every opponent except Texas A&M to under 20 points, including three shut outs.  They dont make as many explosive negative plays (just 9% tackle for loss rate), but theyve defended 16.2% of opponents passes and have kept the  yards per attempt to just 6.4 yards per attempt.  CJ Mosley leads the team with 88 stops so far, 37 more than the next player on the list.  The game being at Auburn will certainly make this game more interesting, but 'Bama should still hold an edge with their ability to shut down run games and Auburn struggling to consistently throw the ball.

Texas A&M at Mizzou
The Aggies have been one of the most unbalanced teams in the nation this season, playing terrific offense and just horrible defense.  Texas A&M reaches the red zone on 48.5% of their drives, picking up 51.1% of their third down conversions and going three and out on just 17.2% of their drives.  Both units though were bad last week against LSU, gaining just five yards per play and posting just their second sub 100 yard rushing game, and the second game this season where they've gained fewer than 500 total yards.  It was a derailment of Johnny Manziel's Heisman campaign, who for a second year in a row ran into a buzz saw against the Tigers.  He completed just 39% of his passes for 5.5 yards per attempt, with a pair of interceptions.  His numbers were worse than last year, but if he can rebound like he did (73.4% completion rate, 12TD:3Int, 9.3 yards per attempt) Mizzou could be in some real trouble.  Mizzou though has played some stellar defense this season, shutting down run games to just 3.4 yards per rush and allowing just 19 points per game.  The offense will be interesting to watch though, with James Franklin returning last week to help guide the Tigers to a win by completing 63% of his passes for 7.5 yards per attempt.  Henry Josey continues to be the best and most consistent offensive threat, averaging 6.1 yards per rush, and converting half of his third and short attempts.  If A&M has any chance of winning this game on the road and potentially ruining Mizzou's SEC East hopes, they're going to need to make more plays in the backfield (better than their current 7.3% rate).

C-USA Game of the week: East Carolina at Marshall

Marshall and East Carolina meet in a major battle for Conference USA divisional seeding.  The Pirates own a one game advantage over the Thundering Herd, so this game will decide who will go to the conference championship game.
When East Carolina has the ball:
The Pirates feature a high scoring offense that has been on a roll the last six games, posting at least 30 points in the last six games.  They average a big play play on 16% of their snaps, and are averaging 36.5 yards per drive.  They've only gone three and out on 24% of their drives, thanks to a stellar season by Shane Carden.  Carden has completed 72.8% of his passes for nearly eight yards per attempt with 32 TDs and just seven interceptions.  He's made his money on third downs, converting over half of his passing attempts, and better than a third of them when its third and ten or longer.  Carden has nine recievers with double digit catches, with most of those passes going to Justin Hardy.  Hardy has 95 receptions for 11.9 yards per catch with eight touchdowns on the season.  Reese Wiggins though is the onyl reciever with more than 10 catches that is averaging better than 14 yards per catch.  On the ground Vintavious Cooper has been the bell cow, averaging 4.9 yards per carry and has found the endzone nine times.  The last two weeks he has broken the hundred yard mark, postinf 126 yards and 148.
The Marshall defense though has been rock solid, allowing just 21 points a game and 4.6 yards per play.  Opponents are converting under 80% of their red zone attempts, and converting just 32.8% of their third downs.  The Herd has allowed just 50% of passes to be completed aginst them, for just 6.2 yards per attempt.  Theyve also been able to pick of 14 passes,  lead by freshman AJ Leggett.  Leggett though has missed the last three weeks, leaving Monterius Lovett and Darryl Roberts to man the secondary.  Senior James Rouse has been the leader along the defensive front, leading the team with 12 tackles for loss and three QB hurries.  Jermaine Holmes leads the team with 75 tackles, 8.5 of them for loss and an interception.
When Marshall has the ball:
The Thundering Herd hav punded the ball to rack up 38 yards per drive, with their top three rushers averaging over five yards a carry.  Essray Taliaferro has carried the ball 159 times for 845 yards and nien touchdowns.  Essray has 25 runs of more than ten yards, while backfield mate Steward Butler has had 27% of his carries go for more than ten yards.  Butler is averaging 10 yards per carry, and Kevin Grooms has 91 runs for 5.5 yards per carry.  The offensive line has doen a great job to open holes, and Marshall has just 6.4% of their plays end in negative yards.  Rakeem Cato has been able to take advantage of the good run game, tossing 32 touchdowns and just 7 ints with a 7.9 yards per attempt mark.  He's completed better than one in five of his passes for more than 15 yards and has converted 46% of hsi third down attempts.
The East Carolina defense has allowed just 4.7 yards per play this season, and have allowed just an in incredible 69.4% of red zone trips to result in scores.  Theyev been stout against the run, allowing just 3.1 yards per carry so far, and just 2.4 in the second halves of games.  Montese Overton and Derrell Johnson have both been playmakers, each totalling 10.5 tackles for loss so far.  Johnson leads the team with 68 total stops, while second leading tackelr Damon Magazu leads the team with three interceptions.  The Secondary has defended 14% of the passing attempts against them.
What's our take:
If you don't watch a lot of mid major football this will be one to tune into. Both teams have the offenses humming and feature solid defensive and special teams units. Playing at hone should give the thundering herd the upper hand and they should be able to cover the -2.5.

The Battle for the Palmetto State: Clemson vs South Carolina

One of the oldest rivalries in college football, Clemson will face of with South Carolina to see who reigns supreme in the state.  The campuses are only 132 miles apart, meaning it will be an easy trip for Tigers fans to Williams Brice Stadium to try and see their team win for the first time in fours in this rivalry.

Offensively the two teams are helmed by experienced starters bound for NFL careers.  Tahj Boyd man's the Clemson offense, completing 67.3% of his passes for 9.1 yards per attempt with just seven interceptions to his 29 touchdowns.  37.8% of his passes have resulted in Clemson first downs, including a nearly 40% conversion rate on his third down passes.  Boyd is a solid athlete and can be a real threat in the run game, despite posting just a 2.2 yards per carry mark.  Its the 25 sacks he's taken (7.6% of his dropbacks) that have helped drive that average down.  Connor Shaw is posting slightly better numbers running the ball, averaging 3.5 yards per carry and is converting about half of his third down attempts when he takes off with the ball.  His passing this year has taken another step forward though, especially his decision making.  He's completing 61.3% of his passes for 8.5 yards per attempt, with just a pair of games where he averaged under seven yards per attempt.  He does boast one of the best TD to interception rates in college football, tossing just a single interception to 20 touchdowns.  Shaw hasn't had much work to do in the second halves of games either, with just 78 attempts (half of what he's attempted in the first half).

Defensively the team's stack up fairly evenly, except for the amount of trips South Carolina has allowed into the red zone.  

The Clemson defense has also brutalized opponents by forcing 26 takeaways this season.  A lot of it has been because of Vic Beasely has harassed everyone.  He has 17 tackles for loss (more than half of his total), including 10 sacks with six passes batted down and three forced fumbles.  His presence alone will test a South Carolina line that has allowed 20 sacks and 39 more QB hurries.

The South Carolina secondary  will present challenges for Tahj Boyd though, as Victor Hampton might be one of the best ball hawking secondary players in the country.  he has a team high (tied) three interceptions, and has defended nine passes.  The Gamecocks secondary overall has defended 9.5% of opposing passers attempts.

This game shoudl be very entertaining, with both teams having been battle tested this season by high profile games.  Clemson is a five point under dog at the opening, but this game is more likely to come down to a field goal at the end with how good these offenses and defenses have played this season.

Mid Major Madness: Harvard

By: Rich Douglas

The Harvard Crimson have high hopes this season as they look to claim their 3rd straight Ivy League title after a 65 year drought. This may be the best team Harvard has put on the court in the last three years after only losing Christian Webster to graduation.

Harvard is off to a fast start this season after going 4-0 through an easy part of their preseason schedule. The team's most efficient player thus far is junior Forward Wesley Saunders who ranks among the nation's leaders in offensive efficiency. Coach Tommy Amaker's offense stresses just that, offensive efficiency. Their low possession slow tempo style of play lulls opposing defenses to sleep, but has been especially effective with their 45% offensive rebound rate.

While their generally an undersized squad, their frontcourt has been excellent in cleaning up the boards and providing offense as well. While both stand at just 6'7 from the PF/C spots, Kyle Casey and Steve Moundou-Missi have defensive rebound rates at 24% and 21% respectively. The big men are combining to shoot 54% from the field and will likely dominate in conference play.

After shooting the 8th best 3-Point % in the nation last season at 39.8%. The Crimson have gotten off to a slow start from beyond the arc. They will no doubt get better as their 25% success rate is just a result of a small sample size. Siyana Chambers shot 42.4% from deep last season, while Laurent Rivard shot at 40.2%. Both are off to slow starts and will surely find their range soon.

It seems as though Harvard is due for another NCAA Tournament Berth this year. They should steamroll the Ivy League and have winnable non-conference games against some decent opponents like Colorado and Boston College.

NBA Weekly Comparison Chart Nov 21

A weekly comparison of the league's teams

• The Miami Heat own the league's bets point differential at 9.9 points per game.  The Jazz are the worst at -11.1
• The Houston Rockets are on average taking 15.5 fewer shots than their opponent's, while the Knicks are taking nearly 10 more.
• The LA Clippers are one of the few teams to rank highly in assist per turnover ratio and their points per shot.  
• The Pacers have been below league average in several league categories, but they force opponents to be the most inefficient, ranking as the top PPS allowed defense.

SEC Game of the Week: Texas A&M at LSU

The SEC provides us with what should be one of the more exciting offensive performances this season, as both teams feature big play ability on offense and defenses that have been sub par this season.  

Both of these defenses have been even worse during conference play.  Against SEC foes, LSU has allowed 5.8 yards per play, and A&M a nearly unbelievable 6.7 yards per play.  Its been a case of just allowing too many big plays, as both teas allow them on more than 14% of opponents snaps.  LSU also has a troubling problem with forcing turnovers, with just 12 takeaways on the season so far.  The Aggies have been a bit better with 20, but they have a major shortcoming in trying to pressure QBs, with just a 9% rate on the season.  

The offenses though have been the mirror to the defenses though, surpassing just about everyone's expectations for what they could get done this season

Both teams are excellent at creating the big play, both coming in at 22% of their snaps have been for gain.  They both have had good starting field position, averaging starts at roughly the 33.5.  But The Aggies have reached the redzone on about 10% more of their drives, thanks to taking fewer negative plays.

 The QBs in this game make both offenses run.  Johnny Football does it by being an excellent dual threat signal caller, something that has made his yards per play on the season stay fairly consistent.  Manziel has been brilliant in conference play, completing 75% of his passes with just a 4% interception rate and a 10.3 yards per attempt rate.  Mettenberger has had his performance this season be much more up and down.  It can all be explained by his taking sacks.  In the games where he has averaged less than 7 yards per play, its been because he was sacked multiple times.  When he has been kept upright, he's made opposing defenses pay.

Big 12 Games to Watch Week 13

Oklahoma at Kansas State

The Sooners have had trouble this year getting going in games.  In the first quarter, they’ve touchdowns in the first averaged just 4.1 yards per carry (lowest per quarter average) and are completing just 51.6% of their passes for just about five yards per attempt.  Oklahoma has only scored two offensive touchdowns in the first quarter this season.  The uncertainty at QB has not helped, but the run game has remained solid for the Sooners, averaging 4.5 yards per carry with 28 TDs and a 61.7% conversion rate on third and short situations.  The run game is not explosive though, with only 16.7% of their runs going for more than ten yards.  With Blake Bell battling concussion symptoms and Trevor Knight completing just 47.6% of his passes on the season for 4.3 yards per attempt, the run game is going to be extremely important.  K State, who’s top two rushers both average over five yards per carry will also be relying on their run game to win.  QB Daniel Sams and John Hubert average 5.5 and 5.1 yards per carry respectively.  In the month of November the Cats have averaged 5.3 yards per carry, and have found the end zone 10 times, doubling their number for the whole month of October.  K State has gone three and out a little too much though, on 30.3% of their drives they’ve given it up after just three plays. The Wildcats though have been slightly better at defending he run, allowing just 3.9 yards per carry to Oklahoma's 4.2.  Oklahoma though makes more plays in the backfield, at 8.9% to K States 7.6%.  Both give up too many big runs, with more than 11% of the opponent's carries going for more than 10 yards.

Baylor at Oklahoma State

This game has become a de facto Big 12 Championship game and would make or break the BCS chances for both squads.  Coach Gundy’s Oklahoma State squad has not put together the offensive fireworks this season we’re used to seeing from them.  They’ve gone three and out on 28.6% of their drives and are averaging just 30 yards per drive.  However, the offense has been effective enough by reaching the redzone on a third of their drives and coming away with points on 88.5% of those possessions.  Clint Chelf has been exceptionally uneven in his games this year, completing just 53% of his passes for 7 yards per attempt.  However, last week against Texas he was able to put together his best game, averaging nine yards per attempt on 72.7% passing with a pair of TDs on the ground and another pair on the ground with 95 yards on ten carries.  The rest of the run game has struggled for most  of the year though, with Desmond Roland averaging just 4.4 yards per carry and posting sub four yard per carry games in six of his last seven games.  Its unlikely to get any easier against a Baylor team that has allowed just 17 points a game this year, and just 3 yards per carry and 4.2 yards per play overall.  They’ve forced opponents into 71 punts, and have kept teams out of the red zone with just 28 trips all season.  11.1% of opposition plays end in negative yardage, as DE Shawn Oakman has 12 tackles for loss amongst his 26 stops.  Leading tackler Bryce Hager has 71 stops, 2.5 of them for loss.  His bigger impact though has been terrorizing opposing passers with nine hurries this season.  The secondary has done its job as well, defending 15% of their passes and allowing a yards per catch of just 12.4.  Only one team has more than 300 yards passing against Baylor, and that was an explosive Texas Tech team.  Look for Baylor to stay perfect in Stillwater.

MAC Game of the Week: Northern Illinois at Toledo

The Huskies will visit the Glass Bowl this week to take on the Rockets, with both teams coming off huge wins in the MAC West.  NIU was able to dispatch Ball State, scoring 21 points at the end of the game to cover the spread and push the total over, while the Rockets found lots of room to run even without David Fluellen against Buffalo in a shoot out.  This game will determine if NIU is playing in the MAC title game, or whether Toledo has shot at getting into it.

When NIU has the ball:
Jordan Lynch continues to dominate every defense he plays in the MAC, last week producing 468 yards of offense and four touchdowns.  He currently ranks fourth in the nation in runs of ten yards or more (all players, not just QBs), and is ranked 22nd in completion percentage at 65.5%.  Against Ball State he hit 81% of his passes as the Huskies exploited both the short passing game as well as connecting on several big plays.  Lynch hit Da'Ron Brown on eight passes, where the Junior racked up 209 yards.  Brown provides the deep play threat the Huskies offense needed.  Prior to last week, no Husky had been averaging over 15 yards per catch, there are now two players.  Cameron Stingily was not used very often last week, and averaged just four yards per carry.  He had no negative runs though, thanks in large part to an offensive line that has allowed just 4.5% of their snaps to be run for loss this year.  The line also has held up well in pass protection, allowing opponents to hurry or sack the QBs on just 5.5% of their pass attempts.

Toledo's defense will likely prove to be a tougher test for Lynch and company though, despite allowing Buffalo to total up 41 points.  The Rockets have been tough against the run, allowing just 3.8 yards per carry and only allowing Florida and Navy to average better than four yards per carry.  They've made a tackle for loss on 8.9% of their opponents plays, averaging 6.5 per game.  Senior Jayrone Elliott has been the most disruptive player for Toledo this season, with 10.5 tackles for loss amongst his 60 total stops.  Elliott has seven sacks along with three QB hurries and a pair of passes defended; he's also caused five fumbles this season.  The passing defense though has been the weakness, where they've allowed the opposition to average 60% completion rates and 8.3 yards per attempt.  23.3% of their passes go for more than 15 yards.  The secondary has only defended 16 passes this year, despite generating a lot of pressure (32 sacks, 19 hurries, 16.5% hurry rate).  Chaz Whittaker is the best secondary player the team has, leading with a pair of interceptions and a pair of passes defended.

When Toledo has the ball:
The question for the Rockets, as it has been so often this season, si will David Fluellen play?  They found out late last week that he woulnd't be able to go against Buffalo, and is uncertain for this week.  Despite appearing in only eight games, Fluellen still has over 1000 yards already. Fluellen is an amazing talent, and a game changer when available.  Luckily they have an excellent second option in Kareem Hunt.  Hunt the last four weeks has rushed for over one hundred yards in each contest, and has six touchdowns.  Last week he was able to average six yards per carry on thirty-one attempts.  Hunt has 22 runs of ten yards or more so far this season as well.  The consistency of the running game has driven the Toledo offense as it has averaged 36.7 yards per drive, and has gone three and out on just 18.1% of their drives.  The passing game has turned around from a  mid season funk, with Terrance Owens compelting 65.6% of his passes for 10.9 yards per attempt the last three weeks.  He also has not thrown an interception in the last three games whiel tossing eight touchdowns.  The bog plays need to continue, and so that means a continuing diet of hitting Bernard Reedy, who has 15 catches of fifteen yards or more, with the last three weeks averaging more than twenty yards per catch.

The Huskies on defense this season have been solid but not spectacular.  They allow a 36.5% conversion rate on third downs, and a 93% in the redzone.  The run defense has been uneven, allowing just 3.9 yards per carry overall but more than four yards per carry in four of their contests, including a five yards per attempt effort last week against Ball State.  In large part its because of a lack of negative plays created, just 6.9% of opponents plays have been negative this season.  LB Jamaal Bass leads the team with 65 tackles, but only 3.5 of them are for loss.  The secondary though has been outstanding, allowing just 52.5% of passes to be completed for just seven yards per attempt.  The unit is lead by senior Jimmie Ward, a ball hawking safety who has five interceptions and 64 tackles.

What's our take:
Both teams need this win, and the MACtion has been exciting all season in the mid week tilts.  Both of these teams can put up points, NIU is a more dynamic team, but this game should stay close thanks to the Huskies troubles against the run.  Toledo's defense though as all teams have against Jordan Lynch, especially now that he's found his down field passing game.  Expect a shootout ending with NIU staying alive for the BCS chase.

NBA Weekly Comparison for Nov 14th

The NBA season is off to a great start, and we've got our weekly graphical comparison of the league's 30 franchises.

TS = True Shooting Percentage  PPS = Points per Shot  A per TO = Assist Per Turnover
OppPPS = Opponent Points Per Shot  Dreb = Defensive Rebound Rate Oreb = Offensive Rebound Rate

Mid Major Madness: UTEP

UTEP is entering this season with it's highest expectations in years. They possess enough returning talent in order to build off of an 18-14 season, and onto a conference title. Coach Tim Floyd has fully instituted his slow tempo, defensively efficient system and will lean on his towering frontcourt to keep his team going.

Coach Floyd has recruited giants. In fact, I can't think of a team in all of college basketball that rivals the size of the Miners. The starting lineup includes senior Center John Bohannon, perhaps the best rebounder in C-USA and 7'1 Freshman Matt Wilms. Wilms is very raw offensively, but uses his size very well and has already shown flashes of his excellent defense. Bohannon was 84th in the nation last year in Defensive Rebounding % and 82nd in Block %. He's continuously worked on his offensive game and will be looking to match last years output of shooting 58% from the field.

Julian Washburn may be their top option on the offensive end. The athletic swingman stands at 6'8, but can run the court like a point guard. His issue is a lack of a consistent outside game as he was an atrocious 9 for 47 behind the arc last season. He'll no doubt shoot better than that or will just have to abandon his outside game entirely as he was otherwise efficient last season. McKenzie Moore is the team's other main offensive weapon. Like Washburn, the 6'7 forward struggled from outside last season, but has shown tons of potential. He'll be thrust into a starting role this season and should be adjusted into Floyd's system after transferring from Junior College. C.J. Cooper is the only man that gets minutes on the team and is under 6'7. At just 6 feet tall, Cooper will be the starting PG, but was often used last season.

Conference USA doesn't have any elite teams this season, but the league has about 5 teams that have legitimate shots at contending for the title. La Tech, Southern Miss, UAB, and Middle Tennessee State will give the Miners fits, but in the end, I think their shutdown defense and size will pave the way for an automatic NCAA tournament berth.

Big 12 Game Preview: Oklahoma State at Texas

A few weeks into the season noone was expecting this match up would have severe Big 12 championship consequences.  But Texas has stopped the hemoraging and the Pokes have been pummeling oppoennts since a surprise upset to West Virginia in week 4.  How well do these two teams match up, and what does it mean going forward?

 Offensively the two teams are pretty comparable on the surface.  The Cowboys are able to get to the red zone much more often than Texas despite the Longhorns averaging better starting field position and more yards per drive.  The big play rate is really the only real differentiating cause, since Texas goes three and out less an Oklahoma state as well.  The Pokes offense just isn't the same high octane unit it has been in recent memory, as we can see below:

The QBs for OK State have only averaged 6.9 and 6.6 yards per play on the ground and passing.  The only reciever with a yards per play mark greater than 15 is Brandon Sheperd, and almost all of that has come from his kick returns.  The ground game is just average in the conference in the yards per caryr area and yards per game, ranking fifth in both categories.

The story of this game will come down to the defense.  Oklahoma State's unit is vastly underrated, forcing a lot of punts and keeping teams from reach the red zone.  The only area of concern has been the inability to get after the QB, where the best pass rusher is DT Calvin Barnett, a senior form Tulsa.  The Texas defense has been getting better each week though, after basically being a dumpster fire prior to Greg Robinson taking over.  They've increased their negative plays forced rate drmatically, and its shown up in trending for yards surrendered per game and yards per play.

If Texas' defense can keep OK State down, their own offense has been solid enough to keep this game interesting.  If the defense though reverts to its early season form, this game is going to get out of hand since the Texas passing offense leads something to be desired.

Lovable Lakers - and the NBA Corner!

By:  David Rudolph

 

About a year ago I started my NBA blogging year talking about the woes of the LA Lakers. They may still be woeful without Kobe, but not as bad as some may think. 

Remember back to the Olympics when Pau Gasol and Spain were team USA's biggest concern? He is still a force to be reckoned with, and with the NBA's number two Pace factor, they are getting up and down the court early and often this young season. speaking of young, Xavier Henry (22), a former ('09) McDonald's All-American, is adding quite the spark in his 4th NBA season outta Kansas. Take a look at this facial ICYMI.

 

 

On the other side of the court tonight is the Denver Nuggets who were my preseason pick for biggest turnaround (not the good way) and with only 6 games so far into the season for them, I think there's still value against them. Remember their unbelievably great home court advantage? With departures of key players basically making this JaVale Mcgee's team, I say it's gone! (Yes, I know it's Ty Lawson's team...)  They only lost three games at the Pepsi center last year, they've already lost 2 of 3 there to start this season.
 

The line on this one is 9 1/2, and I say that's way too high. Free play of the day (and first this year for me via the blog) is gonna be the lovable Lakers, well at least we'll try to love 'em while our money is placed on them!

 

BONUS! - Minnesota already played Cleveland this year and shot the ball horrendously. With this one being at Minny, where they'll surely shoot better, I'm going with the OVER, that total is too low at 202 1/2.

 

Get David's Premium Plays Now!!

 

 

Mid Major Madness: Weber State

Rich Douglas

For a team that has won 55 games in the last 2 years, Weber State is inexplicably overlooked and seem to be flying under the radar again this year. The Wildcats dropped their season opener to in state rival BYU, but have plenty of firepower to recapture the Big Sky Title after getting upset by Montana last year in the conference tournament.

The Wildcats had an impressive Effective Field Goal % of 56.0 last year which was good enough for 4th in the nation. Most of their success was due to their sharp shooting prowess behind the 3 point line as they had the 2nd highest percentage in the nation. They should continue to see success beyond the arc as their starting backcourt of Davian Berry and Jordan Richardson is back. Berry and Richardson each shot 41% from 3PT last season with Berry leading the team in PPG with 15.2.

The frontcourt features returning senior Kyle Tresnak who shot an efficient 57% from the field and 70% from the free throw line. The big man cleaned up on the boards aiding Weber State's high activity on the boards which was necessary for their perimeter attack. The X Factor for the team may be Sophomore Joel Bolomboy who has been pushed into a prominent in the starting lineup. Bolomboy is still a very raw athletic Power Forward, but is easily the best rebounder in the conference. During his Freshman season, Bolomboy was ranked 19th and 47th respectively in OR and DR%.

Weber State should runaway with the conference and finally see their potential met in the conference tournament. They have 4 legitimate all-conference players in their starting lineup and will score at will. Perhaps what's even more important is that they replicate last year's stat in allowing 0.93 points per possession in conference.

Prediction: 1st in Conference.

ACC Games to Watch Week 12

This week's ACC matchups start and end with what should be the bets games of the week.  Georgia Tech and Clemson face off on a Thursday night while the last afternoon game is Miami at Duke, a game that noone three moths ago would have pegged as a potential for the Coastal Division championship.

Georgia Tech at Clemson
Georgia Tech still holds the lead in the Coastal division, thanks to a 5-2 conference record.  And with three teams in the division with seven wins already, they have to find a way to win to stay in the race.  They'll try to beat the Tigers simply by controlling the pace of the game with their rushing attack.  The Jackets have been pretty good on offense this year, scoring 33 points a game and averaging just over six yards per play on offense.  They've also averaged 36.2 yards per drive, and a solid 24.5% three and out rate.  This is despite the fact that Vad Lee has struggled to find running room in the triple option game.  His 2.9 yards per carry is about two and a half yards fewer than his average last year, and his passing still is not great; he's completing just 45.6% of his passes with just eight tds to six interceptions.  The only real saving grace for Lee has been the success on third downs, where he has converted 43.5% of his passes.  David Sims has found more space, averaging 5.4 yards per carry while scoring nine times.  Sims is especially dangerous in the maroon zone, where he's averaged 5.5 yards per attempt and has half of his 10 yard plus runs.  Robert Godhigh and Zach Laskey are bigger play threats, posting a 22.3% rate of 10 yard runs.  The Clemson run defense though has been stout this year, not allowing any team to average more than 3.3 yards per carry the last four weeks, and posting a tackle for loss rate of 13.3%.  They've been somewhat susceptible to giving up some big runs, allowing a carry of more than ten yards on 44 carries this year, but have been excellent at stopping third down conversions, allowing just eight of fifty four runs to convert.  On the other side of the ball, Tahj Boyd continues to be the focal point.  Boyd has bounced back after his disastrous performance against FSU, throwing for over three hundred yards in both games and tossing three TDs last week.  Sammy Watkins still continues to receive a disproportionate amount of the passes, but 19 players have at least one catch this year for Clemson.  Martavis Bryant has 18 catches for more than fifteen yards, providing a real threat across from Watkins.  Boyd should be able to continue his streak against a Tech defense that does not defend the pass well.  They've allowed a 63% completion rate, nearly seven yards per attempt and only pressure QBs on 7% of their drop backs.  Jemea Thomas is the mos dangerous man in the secondary, with eight passes defended and and an interception.

Miami (FL) at Duke
How exactly has Duke football gained bowl eligibility for a second year in a row, and in the hunt for the Coastal championship?  The offense has not been stellar, averaging just 5.8 yards per play and 29 yards per drive.  They get to the redzone at an average rate of 32%, but do come away with points on 82% of those drives.  They also typically score TDs, picking up 27 of them in the red zone with just five field goals.  The Blue Devils dual QB threat of Anthony Boone and Brandon Connette have combined to complete 62.8% of their passes for 7.5 yards per attempt.  Boone has not been very reliable the last couple of weeks though, tossing seven interceptions for just 5.3 yards per attempt.  Connette is only at 4.5 yards per attempt in the same time frame, and Duke has won both games.  Jela Duncan and Josh Snead have the carries outside of the redzone, averaging better than 5.3 yards per carry and 729 yards.  Connette though has eight rushing TDs, and take about ten runs per game.  The Canes defense will have to bounce back after back to back drubbings, in which theyve surrendered over 500 yards per game and over seven yards per play.  They give up a lot of big plays, giving them up at a 14.4% rate.  They do make up for it though by pressuring QBs at a nearly identical rate, and theyve forced 14 interceptions and 12 fumbles.  Miami's offense will also need t bounce back, especially the run game.  The last two weeks Miami has barely rushed for 100 yards, last week gaining just 28 on 24 carries.  Dallas Crawford is going to have to really play well, like he had against North Carolina earlier this season.  He's not overly explosive, but averages over four yards per carry at all points on the field, including a 4.1 yards per carry mark in the red zone.  Duke though plays the run tough, despite a just 7.9% tackle for loss rate.  The passing game might not be the answer either though, since Stephen Morris' ankel injury he has only one game with a completion percentage above 60%, and has six interceptions to just five TDs.  Duke also has been able to defend 13% of all passes attempted against them.  This one should prove to be low scoring.

MAC Games to watch

This might be the biggest week of MACtion this season.  In the East, Ohio sand Bowling Green square off as both chase Buffalo for the conference championship.  Buffalo plays a Toledo team that is 4-1 in conference play and is sitting at 6-3 already.  And on Wednesday night, Ball State and Northern Illinois play for the Western Conference in a game of two teams that are already at 9 wins apiece.

Ohio at Bowling Green
The Bobcats are coming off their worst loss of the season, a 30-3 beat down by Buffalo last Tuesday night.  Tyler Tettleton was hurried all night, and never seemed to recover from an egregiously bad safety call.  It resulted in him completing only 45% of his passes for just 4.7 yards per attempt.  The offensive line struggled all around, generating just enough room for the backs to rush for 2.1 yards per carry.  The Ohio offense averaged only 20 yards per drive, far below the seasonal average of 32.7.  This all despite the fact that the team had better starting field position than they normally had averaged throughout the year.  The Falcons defense might allow a little more room on the ground, since thy allow opposing backs to run for 4.8 yards per carry (and well over five yards per shot against teams with a winning record).  The pass defense is slightly more efficient, allowing just 6.1 yards per attempt.  But they force no take aways, intercepting just three passes which is strange since they generate pressure on 14.7% of opponents dropbacks.  Ted Ouellet leads this attack from the middle with his pair of sacks and five QB hurries.  On the offense Bowling Green has been very efficient going three and out on just 15.6% of their and averaging 42 yards per drive.  Matt Jihns has averaged 8.1 yards per attempt and has found a consistent threat in Shaun Joplin, who has 19 of his 36 catches going for more than 15 yards.  The Bobcats might struggle to stop this offense, especially since they allow 45.8% of third downs to get converted.  Ohio's only real saving grace is their ability to stop teams once they get to the redzone, where only 69% of these drives result in points.

Buffalo at Toledo
The Bulls are one of the out of left field teams this season.  Everyone knew about the amazing play of Khalil Mack, and he has backed it up by doing everything on the field.  He leads teh team with 59 tackles, 7.5 sacks and has five QB hurries.  He also has three interceptions and five more passes defended.  The surprise has come on the offensive side of the ball, where Branden Oliver has been a workhorse in the backfield, averaging 5.3 yards per carry.  He's converted half of his third down carries for first downs, and has seen 17% of his carries go for more than 10 yards.  The passing game has not been nearly as efficient though, resulting in an average drive length of just 28 yards, and just 5.4 yards per play.  The Toledo Rockets though will prove to be a tough test, especially since they played their non-conference opponents just as tough as Buffalo did.  David Fluellen is the headliner of the offense, averaging 7 yards per carry.  Fluellen is one of more balanced backs in the nation, averaging 4.5 yards per carry in the red zone, and better than five in the maroon zone.  He also has 18% of his carries go for more than ten yards.  His efficiency has driven the team to average better than 32 yards per drive, and only to go three and out on 18% of those drives. Jayrone Elliot is the Rocket's defensive star, posting 55 tackles, 10.5 of them for loss with seven sacks.  This game should see a lot of running, and some solid defenses on both sides.  The Under 56 is the way to play it.

Ball State at Northern Illinois
This Wednesday night matchup promises to be an instant classic, with Ball State playing the roll of spoiling upstart.  The Cardinals have been one of the best offensive teams in the MAC, averaging 40 points per game and 6.5 yards per play.  They've picked up 36 yards per drive, largely by picking up third downs at a 43.8% rate.  QB Keith Wenning has been one of the better passers this year without much of the credit, compelting 63% of his passes for 8,.5 yards per attempt, with a better than 5:1 TD to Int ratio.  Willie Snead has been the go to receiver, catching 59 first downs with 24 catches of more than 15 yards.  19 of his 21 third down catches have been successful in creating first downs, and he has eight redzone TDs.  Jahwan Edwards and Horactio Banks have formed an extremely dangerous backfield combo.  The pair have combined for 1344 yards and 19 TDs.  Their defense has been solid as well, allowing just 5.6 yards per play and forcing punts on 36% of opponents drives.  There are some concerns though, since they dont make a lot of plays in the backfield (7.1%).  They are also vulnerable to the run, allowing 4.9 yards per carry and giving up 17 rushing TDs.  And there aren't many teams that expose your weakness against the run than the Northern Illinois Huskies.  The team averages 6.6 yards per carry, lead by QB Jordan Lynch.  Lynch has 1150 yards on the ground and 12 TDs, with 36 runs of more than ten yards.  Cameron Stingily must be accounted for as well, picking up 784 yards on his own and averaging 5.5 yards per carry.  Cameron averages four yards per carry in the redzone, with all eight of his TDs.  Teams also cannot just sell out against the run, since Lynch has made some big strides in the passing game as well.  He's completing 63.6% of his passes for 7.3 yards per attempt, with 19 TDs and just 5 Ints.  The team does lack some big play threat though, with the top two receivers, Tommylee Lewis and Da'Ron Brown both averaging under 15 yards per catch.  The defense has been stout in all phases, allowing oppsoing passers to complete less than half of their passes and running backs to average just 3.9 yards per carry.  There have been some let downss in the secondary though, with 16% of those passes to go for more than 15 yards.

SEC Game Preview: LSU at Alabama

The night cap to a great week of football, we get to see a rivalry that always has national title implications.  The Tigers still have a chance to snag the SEC West crown, but only if they are able to beat the Tide this weekend.  Alabama has no margin for error either if they hope to reach the big title game again.

Both LSU and Alabama struggled early on this season with their defense's allowing too many yards and points.  But was it just high expectations?

At least for Alabama it's seemed to be.  Besides a matchup against Texas A&M, the Tide has been able to lock down opposing offenses with just two other teams averaging better tha four yards per play.  LSU on the other hand has been vulnerable, giving up some huge chunks of offense throughout the season.  Its still been a very good year defensively, just not as dominating as we've come to expect from the Bayou.

From this, we can see the big culprit for LSU's greater variability.  14% of opponents plays have been big plays, which has allowed those teams to get to the red zone far too often.  Alabama has been again one of the most lights out defense when not playing the Aggies.  Theyve forced a ridiculous amount of punts this year, 60% of opponents drives have ended with one.  They dont let you get to the red zone, and they shut teams down when they get their as well.

Offensively though, LSU quietly is one of the best in the nation.  They only go three and out on 19.8% of their drives, and have only averaged less than 30 per drive once.

Alabama continues to get a majority of their big plays on the ground, with AJ McCarron posting a 21.5% big play rate.

This game should be a bit more open than it has the past few years, but the bets matchu up will be to see how the LSU offense can take advantage of an Alabama defense that has shown a few games worth of vulnerability.  If they can't, their defense will fall victim to the grinding Alabama offense.

ACC Games to Watch

Syracuse at Maryland:
It was just a  few weeks ago we were looking at the Terps to be a possible sleeper to play havoc in the ACC.  Since starting 4-0, Maryland has been outscore 163-64, with a huge drop off in run game efficiency by averaging just 2.8 yards per carry.  CJ Brown has been ineffective since his injury against FSU, playing in just one game where he averaged just 5.7 yards per attempt and threw a pair of interceptions.  Caleb Rowe hasn't been any better, by completing only 48.5% of his passes on the season.  The loss of top wideouts Stefon Diggs and Deon Long who had combined for 66 receptions isn't helping the struggling signal callers. The defense has still played solidly, but is no longer forcing turnovers with just a single interception in the last four games.  In part its been a lack of pass rush, since they've tallied just four sacks and a single hurry.  The Orange will be looking to take advantage of the weakened Terrapins, with a stifling defense that has allowed just a 30% conversion rate on third downs, and a 5.2 yards per play mark.  Syracuse has been able to pressure QBs on 14% of their dropbacks, and have been even tougher against teh run by allowing only 3.7 yards per carry.  If Terrel Hunt can find some rhythm as the starter, the offense might be able to get going.  Hunt though is only averaging 3.8 yards per attempt in conference play, and hasn't thrown a TD against his six interceptions.  These are a pair of teams that are in distress, but both are in the hunt for a bowl game.  It should figure to be a super low scoring affair as both offenses struggle to get their footing.

Virginia Tech at Miami (FL)
The Hokies basically have to win this game to have a shot at a conference championship game appearance and to have a chance at an upper tier bowl game.  The Hokies fortunes follow Logan Thomas, and the last two weeks its been bad Logan showing up.  Thomas has completed just 57% of his passes whiel tossing six picks and just a pair of touchdowns.  Last week he was sacked four times, leading to VT averaging just 28 yards per drive, and just two of thirteen drives reached the red zone.  It was a perfect storm as the defense also allowed 34 points to a BC team that had been averaging 24 points a game.  They do luck out facing a Miami team that is now beat up and missing their biggest offensive threat in Duke Johnson.  The 'Canes allow just 7% of their plays to be run for negative yardage, so Dallas Crawford should be able to fill in for Johnson.  Crawford has had 12% of his carries go for more than 10 yards, but is not as explosive as Johnson with no carries of more than 20 yards.  It will be put more pressure on Stephen Morris who has already struggled the last three weeks, completing just 56% of his passes with three touchdowns and six ints.  His mobility has been limited, which is not good against this pressure filled Hokies defense.  The defense has got to make some plays in the backfield after making just 14 stops behind the line of scrimmage the last three weeks, after starting the season by averaging seven per game.

Pac 12 Graphical Preview: Oregon at Stanford

One of the most highly anticipated games of the season, the Oregon Ducks again play Stanford for the de facto Pac12 North title.  The Ducks have one of the nation's best offenses, a high paced assault that is averaging 55 points a game.  Stanford already has a loss this year, a bad loss to Utah.  However, the Cardinal are still dangerous because of a nasty defense that is allowing under 20 points per game, and not having surrendered more than 367 total yards in any game this season.

The offensive comparison really isn't close between these teams.  Oregon gets to the redzone on about 20% more drives than Stanford does, and helps flip the field position by about 10 yards more per drive.  Stanford does continue to do a good job of not getting caught in the backfield, finding a loss on just 4.7% of their offensive plays.  

The Ducks offense this year has been extremely balanced, nearly half of their yards coming through the air and a half on the ground.  This split has been at least in part because of the absence of De'Anthony Thomas Thomas has only played in five games so far, and only has 17% of their rushing yards.  However, improved play from Marcus Mariotta who has yet to throw a pick this year.  Its also been the Byron Marshall show, as the promising sophomore has averaged 6.8 yards per carry this year.  

On the defensive side, Stanford's D gets all the press.  They make a lot of plays in the backfield, with a 10.5% tackle for loss rate and they get after the QB, pressuring QBs on 16% of their dropbacks.  However, the Ducks are no slouches either, as the following chart will show

  But the Cardinal do have one of the better linebackers in the nation on their side, in Shayne Skov.  Skov has 63 stops this year, seven of them for loss with three and a half sacks.  The backer also plays the pass well, breaking up a pair of them.  

It will be up to the Stanford defense to determine this game.  If they can keep it close the Cardinal have a chance just like last year.  However, this isnt the same team as last year, and Oregon's defense hasn't shown any vulnerabilities yet.  It will be the makings of an instant classic.

Hockey Free Play: Senators at Blue Jackets

By: Rich Douglas

The Play: Over 5.5 Goals

The Senators and Blue Jackets meet up tonight in a tilt between two back up goaltenders that are trying to get their teams on the right tract after lofty preseason expectations.

Why this game is going over 5.5 goals:

-The Senators are allowing an NHL worst 40.3 shots/60min in 5 on 5 situations.
-They're also very proficient in getting the puck on net themselves with 33 shots/60min.
-Both teams are in the top 10 in Goals for and Shots for/60min on the power play.
-The Blue Jackets are getting 30 shots on net and allowing 30 shots on net/60min in 5 on 5 situations. Those are middle of the road numbers, and they should open up a little more than normal while playing the leagues most wide open team.
-For what it's worth, both backups are in tonight (Lehner vs. McElhinney), and while Lehner is the future for the Sens, he's still no Craig Anderson.
-The Senators really need to turn their season around, they're 27th in Fenwick and are still a middle of the road team in the standings. I'm not sure if that's good or bad for them as they have tons of potential.
-The Senators have played 4 straight over games.

MAC Game Preview: Ohio at Buffalo

The surprising Buffalo Bulls are at 6-2 and are looking to possibly steal a spot in the MAC championship game.  The Ohio Bobcats though are looking to capture their division from the New York school and punch their own ticket for the big game in this Tuesday night special.

When Buffalo has the ball:
The Bulls have averaged just 5.2 yards per play on offense, and just 28.4 yards per drive.  However, the offense has been able to do its part for this season by not going three and out, posting just a 21.5% rate.  They also have been better the last four weeks, averaging 30 yards per drive or better in each one.  QB Joe Licata has been pretty good, completing 60.5% of his passes for over 7.3 yards per attempt with 14 TDs and just 4 Ints.  He has not been good on third downs though, just converting 27% of his passes there.  The Bulls dont take many negative plays though, with just a 8.9% rate on allowing tackles for loss.  It has lead to senior back Branden Oliver having an excellent season, averaging 4.9 yards per carry and posting 27 carries for more than ten yards so far.

The Bobcats defense has been very tough to crack this season, allowing just a 66.7% conversion rate in the red zone.  They have been very tough on the ground, allowing only 3.97 yards per carry, with just Eastern Michigan really finding much room on the ground.  The pass defense hasn't been great, allowing 59.2% completion rates and 7.1 yards per attempt, but they do have pressures on 17% of opposing passers dropbacks.  Tarell Basham and Ty Branz lead the effort in the backfield, each lineman posting six tackles for loss.  Safety Josh Kristoff leads the team with 51 total tackles, and has broken up four passes.

When Ohio has the ball:
Tyler Tettleton continues the MAC tradition of excellent QB play,  as he's been completing 68% of his passes for 9.1 yards per attempt with 17 TDs and just 6 Ints.  41.6% of his third down passes have converted into first downs, and he has 7 TDs on third downs.  His favorite receiver has been Donte Foster, who has 50 receptions on the season for 14.4 yards per catch.  Defenses though must account for Chase Cochran as well, who has eight catches of more than 25 yards this season so far and should be back for this game after missing the game against Miami(OH).  The Bobcats line has struggled to consistently get holes open, but Beau Blankenship and Ryan Boykin are combining for 4.3 yards per carry and 10 TDs on the ground.

The Bulls rush defense will likely be up to that challenge though after allowing over 100 yards just twice in their last five games, and have allowed just one team to rush for over four yards per carry over that time frame.  It can almost all be laid at teh feet of the fantastic Khalil Mack.  Mack has 11 tackels for loss amongst his 54 stops, with three Ints and four passes defended.  The only player with more passes defended is senior DB Najja Johnson, who has six with three ints.  The pass rush is almost all on Mack as well, though Colby Way also has five sacks this season and Kristjan Sokoli has five more QB hurries.

What's Our Take:
This will be the first MAC foe Buffalo will face that has a chance of competing for a conference title. They're playing far above expectations but short turnarounds produce some weird results.  We're going to stick with the older Bobcats here at +4

Big 12 Preview: Oklahoma at Baylor

The Big 12 has been as wide open as everyone had predicted to begin the year, but this weekend should really start to thin out the herd at the top.  The Sooners will be the first ranked team that Baylor has played this season; they were one of just five ranked teams that hadn't faced a ranked opponent yet after they were ranked in the top 25.  The Bears will need this win and some good style points while doing to to even have an outside chance at a National title berth.

As we can see, the Baylor offense holds some distinct advantages over the Sooners so far this season.  The Bears have a ridiculous big play rate (runs of 10 yards or more or passing plays of 15 yards or more).  Theyve done it by minimizing lost plays, with a very low number of tackles for loss allowed.  The Sooners do hold a slight advantage in drives getting to the red zone, but that could be in part just because Baylor has so many big plays.  Both teams are better than average as well at not going three and out, with Baylor doing so on just 14.8% of their drives and Oklahoma on just over 22% of theirs.  

Defensively, both teams have actually played solid ball, allowing nearly identical big play rates.  However, Baylor has taken advantage of their weaker competition, allowing just three yards per play and allowing red zone score on just 55% of their drives.  The Sooners 88.9% success allowed rate is slightly higher than the national average, and will need to tighten up if the Sooners look to have a chance.  

Because Baylor has been so good at pressuring opposing passers, and because the bets defense might just be to slow the overall pace of the game to a crawl.  That would be the Sooners bets choice anyways it looks like, since their run game is the strength of the team. 

Bell did have one of his best games last week against Texas Tech, positing an 11.3 yards per attempt number while completing 64% of his passes for two TDs and no Ints.  

Bryce Petty doesnt get the headlines that some of the other QBs in the country do, but he's been pretty muc perfect all season long.  He's only once this season completed fewer than 60% of his passes, and has tossed just a single Int.  He also is averaging well into the double digits for his yards per attempt, an incredible feat.  Below is his QB rating for the season and how it compares to his average game by game

Thursday night promises to be entertaining, and could very easily be the game that decides the fate of the Big 12.  Baylor has yet to be battled tested really, but they've been just downright impressive in just grinding down every opponent.  They should be able to win at home with relative ease, bu Oklahoma could keep it close if they can get the run game going.