The Huskies will visit the Glass Bowl this week to take on the Rockets, with both teams coming off huge wins in the MAC West. NIU was able to dispatch Ball State, scoring 21 points at the end of the game to cover the spread and push the total over, while the Rockets found lots of room to run even without David Fluellen against Buffalo in a shoot out. This game will determine if NIU is playing in the MAC title game, or whether Toledo has shot at getting into it.
When NIU has the ball:
Jordan Lynch continues to dominate every defense he plays in the MAC, last week producing 468 yards of offense and four touchdowns. He currently ranks fourth in the nation in runs of ten yards or more (all players, not just QBs), and is ranked 22nd in completion percentage at 65.5%. Against Ball State he hit 81% of his passes as the Huskies exploited both the short passing game as well as connecting on several big plays. Lynch hit Da'Ron Brown on eight passes, where the Junior racked up 209 yards. Brown provides the deep play threat the Huskies offense needed. Prior to last week, no Husky had been averaging over 15 yards per catch, there are now two players. Cameron Stingily was not used very often last week, and averaged just four yards per carry. He had no negative runs though, thanks in large part to an offensive line that has allowed just 4.5% of their snaps to be run for loss this year. The line also has held up well in pass protection, allowing opponents to hurry or sack the QBs on just 5.5% of their pass attempts.
Toledo's defense will likely prove to be a tougher test for Lynch and company though, despite allowing Buffalo to total up 41 points. The Rockets have been tough against the run, allowing just 3.8 yards per carry and only allowing Florida and Navy to average better than four yards per carry. They've made a tackle for loss on 8.9% of their opponents plays, averaging 6.5 per game. Senior Jayrone Elliott has been the most disruptive player for Toledo this season, with 10.5 tackles for loss amongst his 60 total stops. Elliott has seven sacks along with three QB hurries and a pair of passes defended; he's also caused five fumbles this season. The passing defense though has been the weakness, where they've allowed the opposition to average 60% completion rates and 8.3 yards per attempt. 23.3% of their passes go for more than 15 yards. The secondary has only defended 16 passes this year, despite generating a lot of pressure (32 sacks, 19 hurries, 16.5% hurry rate). Chaz Whittaker is the best secondary player the team has, leading with a pair of interceptions and a pair of passes defended.
When Toledo has the ball:
The question for the Rockets, as it has been so often this season, si will David Fluellen play? They found out late last week that he woulnd't be able to go against Buffalo, and is uncertain for this week. Despite appearing in only eight games, Fluellen still has over 1000 yards already. Fluellen is an amazing talent, and a game changer when available. Luckily they have an excellent second option in Kareem Hunt. Hunt the last four weeks has rushed for over one hundred yards in each contest, and has six touchdowns. Last week he was able to average six yards per carry on thirty-one attempts. Hunt has 22 runs of ten yards or more so far this season as well. The consistency of the running game has driven the Toledo offense as it has averaged 36.7 yards per drive, and has gone three and out on just 18.1% of their drives. The passing game has turned around from a mid season funk, with Terrance Owens compelting 65.6% of his passes for 10.9 yards per attempt the last three weeks. He also has not thrown an interception in the last three games whiel tossing eight touchdowns. The bog plays need to continue, and so that means a continuing diet of hitting Bernard Reedy, who has 15 catches of fifteen yards or more, with the last three weeks averaging more than twenty yards per catch.
The Huskies on defense this season have been solid but not spectacular. They allow a 36.5% conversion rate on third downs, and a 93% in the redzone. The run defense has been uneven, allowing just 3.9 yards per carry overall but more than four yards per carry in four of their contests, including a five yards per attempt effort last week against Ball State. In large part its because of a lack of negative plays created, just 6.9% of opponents plays have been negative this season. LB Jamaal Bass leads the team with 65 tackles, but only 3.5 of them are for loss. The secondary though has been outstanding, allowing just 52.5% of passes to be completed for just seven yards per attempt. The unit is lead by senior Jimmie Ward, a ball hawking safety who has five interceptions and 64 tackles.
What's our take:
Both teams need this win, and the MACtion has been exciting all season in the mid week tilts. Both of these teams can put up points, NIU is a more dynamic team, but this game should stay close thanks to the Huskies troubles against the run. Toledo's defense though as all teams have against Jordan Lynch, especially now that he's found his down field passing game. Expect a shootout ending with NIU staying alive for the BCS chase.
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