Big 12 Games to Watch Week 13

Oklahoma at Kansas State

The Sooners have had trouble this year getting going in games.  In the first quarter, they’ve touchdowns in the first averaged just 4.1 yards per carry (lowest per quarter average) and are completing just 51.6% of their passes for just about five yards per attempt.  Oklahoma has only scored two offensive touchdowns in the first quarter this season.  The uncertainty at QB has not helped, but the run game has remained solid for the Sooners, averaging 4.5 yards per carry with 28 TDs and a 61.7% conversion rate on third and short situations.  The run game is not explosive though, with only 16.7% of their runs going for more than ten yards.  With Blake Bell battling concussion symptoms and Trevor Knight completing just 47.6% of his passes on the season for 4.3 yards per attempt, the run game is going to be extremely important.  K State, who’s top two rushers both average over five yards per carry will also be relying on their run game to win.  QB Daniel Sams and John Hubert average 5.5 and 5.1 yards per carry respectively.  In the month of November the Cats have averaged 5.3 yards per carry, and have found the end zone 10 times, doubling their number for the whole month of October.  K State has gone three and out a little too much though, on 30.3% of their drives they’ve given it up after just three plays. The Wildcats though have been slightly better at defending he run, allowing just 3.9 yards per carry to Oklahoma's 4.2.  Oklahoma though makes more plays in the backfield, at 8.9% to K States 7.6%.  Both give up too many big runs, with more than 11% of the opponent's carries going for more than 10 yards.

Baylor at Oklahoma State

This game has become a de facto Big 12 Championship game and would make or break the BCS chances for both squads.  Coach Gundy’s Oklahoma State squad has not put together the offensive fireworks this season we’re used to seeing from them.  They’ve gone three and out on 28.6% of their drives and are averaging just 30 yards per drive.  However, the offense has been effective enough by reaching the redzone on a third of their drives and coming away with points on 88.5% of those possessions.  Clint Chelf has been exceptionally uneven in his games this year, completing just 53% of his passes for 7 yards per attempt.  However, last week against Texas he was able to put together his best game, averaging nine yards per attempt on 72.7% passing with a pair of TDs on the ground and another pair on the ground with 95 yards on ten carries.  The rest of the run game has struggled for most  of the year though, with Desmond Roland averaging just 4.4 yards per carry and posting sub four yard per carry games in six of his last seven games.  Its unlikely to get any easier against a Baylor team that has allowed just 17 points a game this year, and just 3 yards per carry and 4.2 yards per play overall.  They’ve forced opponents into 71 punts, and have kept teams out of the red zone with just 28 trips all season.  11.1% of opposition plays end in negative yardage, as DE Shawn Oakman has 12 tackles for loss amongst his 26 stops.  Leading tackler Bryce Hager has 71 stops, 2.5 of them for loss.  His bigger impact though has been terrorizing opposing passers with nine hurries this season.  The secondary has done its job as well, defending 15% of their passes and allowing a yards per catch of just 12.4.  Only one team has more than 300 yards passing against Baylor, and that was an explosive Texas Tech team.  Look for Baylor to stay perfect in Stillwater.