This might be the biggest week of MACtion this season. In the East, Ohio sand Bowling Green square off as both chase Buffalo for the conference championship. Buffalo plays a Toledo team that is 4-1 in conference play and is sitting at 6-3 already. And on Wednesday night, Ball State and Northern Illinois play for the Western Conference in a game of two teams that are already at 9 wins apiece.
Ohio at Bowling Green
The Bobcats are coming off their worst loss of the season, a 30-3 beat down by Buffalo last Tuesday night. Tyler Tettleton was hurried all night, and never seemed to recover from an egregiously bad safety call. It resulted in him completing only 45% of his passes for just 4.7 yards per attempt. The offensive line struggled all around, generating just enough room for the backs to rush for 2.1 yards per carry. The Ohio offense averaged only 20 yards per drive, far below the seasonal average of 32.7. This all despite the fact that the team had better starting field position than they normally had averaged throughout the year. The Falcons defense might allow a little more room on the ground, since thy allow opposing backs to run for 4.8 yards per carry (and well over five yards per shot against teams with a winning record). The pass defense is slightly more efficient, allowing just 6.1 yards per attempt. But they force no take aways, intercepting just three passes which is strange since they generate pressure on 14.7% of opponents dropbacks. Ted Ouellet leads this attack from the middle with his pair of sacks and five QB hurries. On the offense Bowling Green has been very efficient going three and out on just 15.6% of their and averaging 42 yards per drive. Matt Jihns has averaged 8.1 yards per attempt and has found a consistent threat in Shaun Joplin, who has 19 of his 36 catches going for more than 15 yards. The Bobcats might struggle to stop this offense, especially since they allow 45.8% of third downs to get converted. Ohio's only real saving grace is their ability to stop teams once they get to the redzone, where only 69% of these drives result in points.
Buffalo at Toledo
The Bulls are one of the out of left field teams this season. Everyone knew about the amazing play of Khalil Mack, and he has backed it up by doing everything on the field. He leads teh team with 59 tackles, 7.5 sacks and has five QB hurries. He also has three interceptions and five more passes defended. The surprise has come on the offensive side of the ball, where Branden Oliver has been a workhorse in the backfield, averaging 5.3 yards per carry. He's converted half of his third down carries for first downs, and has seen 17% of his carries go for more than 10 yards. The passing game has not been nearly as efficient though, resulting in an average drive length of just 28 yards, and just 5.4 yards per play. The Toledo Rockets though will prove to be a tough test, especially since they played their non-conference opponents just as tough as Buffalo did. David Fluellen is the headliner of the offense, averaging 7 yards per carry. Fluellen is one of more balanced backs in the nation, averaging 4.5 yards per carry in the red zone, and better than five in the maroon zone. He also has 18% of his carries go for more than ten yards. His efficiency has driven the team to average better than 32 yards per drive, and only to go three and out on 18% of those drives. Jayrone Elliot is the Rocket's defensive star, posting 55 tackles, 10.5 of them for loss with seven sacks. This game should see a lot of running, and some solid defenses on both sides. The Under 56 is the way to play it.
Ball State at Northern Illinois
This Wednesday night matchup promises to be an instant classic, with Ball State playing the roll of spoiling upstart. The Cardinals have been one of the best offensive teams in the MAC, averaging 40 points per game and 6.5 yards per play. They've picked up 36 yards per drive, largely by picking up third downs at a 43.8% rate. QB Keith Wenning has been one of the better passers this year without much of the credit, compelting 63% of his passes for 8,.5 yards per attempt, with a better than 5:1 TD to Int ratio. Willie Snead has been the go to receiver, catching 59 first downs with 24 catches of more than 15 yards. 19 of his 21 third down catches have been successful in creating first downs, and he has eight redzone TDs. Jahwan Edwards and Horactio Banks have formed an extremely dangerous backfield combo. The pair have combined for 1344 yards and 19 TDs. Their defense has been solid as well, allowing just 5.6 yards per play and forcing punts on 36% of opponents drives. There are some concerns though, since they dont make a lot of plays in the backfield (7.1%). They are also vulnerable to the run, allowing 4.9 yards per carry and giving up 17 rushing TDs. And there aren't many teams that expose your weakness against the run than the Northern Illinois Huskies. The team averages 6.6 yards per carry, lead by QB Jordan Lynch. Lynch has 1150 yards on the ground and 12 TDs, with 36 runs of more than ten yards. Cameron Stingily must be accounted for as well, picking up 784 yards on his own and averaging 5.5 yards per carry. Cameron averages four yards per carry in the redzone, with all eight of his TDs. Teams also cannot just sell out against the run, since Lynch has made some big strides in the passing game as well. He's completing 63.6% of his passes for 7.3 yards per attempt, with 19 TDs and just 5 Ints. The team does lack some big play threat though, with the top two receivers, Tommylee Lewis and Da'Ron Brown both averaging under 15 yards per catch. The defense has been stout in all phases, allowing oppsoing passers to complete less than half of their passes and running backs to average just 3.9 yards per carry. There have been some let downss in the secondary though, with 16% of those passes to go for more than 15 yards.
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