This week's ACC matchups start and end with what should be the bets games of the week. Georgia Tech and Clemson face off on a Thursday night while the last afternoon game is Miami at Duke, a game that noone three moths ago would have pegged as a potential for the Coastal Division championship.
Georgia Tech at Clemson
Georgia Tech still holds the lead in the Coastal division, thanks to a 5-2 conference record. And with three teams in the division with seven wins already, they have to find a way to win to stay in the race. They'll try to beat the Tigers simply by controlling the pace of the game with their rushing attack. The Jackets have been pretty good on offense this year, scoring 33 points a game and averaging just over six yards per play on offense. They've also averaged 36.2 yards per drive, and a solid 24.5% three and out rate. This is despite the fact that Vad Lee has struggled to find running room in the triple option game. His 2.9 yards per carry is about two and a half yards fewer than his average last year, and his passing still is not great; he's completing just 45.6% of his passes with just eight tds to six interceptions. The only real saving grace for Lee has been the success on third downs, where he has converted 43.5% of his passes. David Sims has found more space, averaging 5.4 yards per carry while scoring nine times. Sims is especially dangerous in the maroon zone, where he's averaged 5.5 yards per attempt and has half of his 10 yard plus runs. Robert Godhigh and Zach Laskey are bigger play threats, posting a 22.3% rate of 10 yard runs. The Clemson run defense though has been stout this year, not allowing any team to average more than 3.3 yards per carry the last four weeks, and posting a tackle for loss rate of 13.3%. They've been somewhat susceptible to giving up some big runs, allowing a carry of more than ten yards on 44 carries this year, but have been excellent at stopping third down conversions, allowing just eight of fifty four runs to convert. On the other side of the ball, Tahj Boyd continues to be the focal point. Boyd has bounced back after his disastrous performance against FSU, throwing for over three hundred yards in both games and tossing three TDs last week. Sammy Watkins still continues to receive a disproportionate amount of the passes, but 19 players have at least one catch this year for Clemson. Martavis Bryant has 18 catches for more than fifteen yards, providing a real threat across from Watkins. Boyd should be able to continue his streak against a Tech defense that does not defend the pass well. They've allowed a 63% completion rate, nearly seven yards per attempt and only pressure QBs on 7% of their drop backs. Jemea Thomas is the mos dangerous man in the secondary, with eight passes defended and and an interception.
Miami (FL) at Duke
How exactly has Duke football gained bowl eligibility for a second year in a row, and in the hunt for the Coastal championship? The offense has not been stellar, averaging just 5.8 yards per play and 29 yards per drive. They get to the redzone at an average rate of 32%, but do come away with points on 82% of those drives. They also typically score TDs, picking up 27 of them in the red zone with just five field goals. The Blue Devils dual QB threat of Anthony Boone and Brandon Connette have combined to complete 62.8% of their passes for 7.5 yards per attempt. Boone has not been very reliable the last couple of weeks though, tossing seven interceptions for just 5.3 yards per attempt. Connette is only at 4.5 yards per attempt in the same time frame, and Duke has won both games. Jela Duncan and Josh Snead have the carries outside of the redzone, averaging better than 5.3 yards per carry and 729 yards. Connette though has eight rushing TDs, and take about ten runs per game. The Canes defense will have to bounce back after back to back drubbings, in which theyve surrendered over 500 yards per game and over seven yards per play. They give up a lot of big plays, giving them up at a 14.4% rate. They do make up for it though by pressuring QBs at a nearly identical rate, and theyve forced 14 interceptions and 12 fumbles. Miami's offense will also need t bounce back, especially the run game. The last two weeks Miami has barely rushed for 100 yards, last week gaining just 28 on 24 carries. Dallas Crawford is going to have to really play well, like he had against North Carolina earlier this season. He's not overly explosive, but averages over four yards per carry at all points on the field, including a 4.1 yards per carry mark in the red zone. Duke though plays the run tough, despite a just 7.9% tackle for loss rate. The passing game might not be the answer either though, since Stephen Morris' ankel injury he has only one game with a completion percentage above 60%, and has six interceptions to just five TDs. Duke also has been able to defend 13% of all passes attempted against them. This one should prove to be low scoring.
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