Big 12 Preview: Oklahoma at Baylor

The Big 12 has been as wide open as everyone had predicted to begin the year, but this weekend should really start to thin out the herd at the top.  The Sooners will be the first ranked team that Baylor has played this season; they were one of just five ranked teams that hadn't faced a ranked opponent yet after they were ranked in the top 25.  The Bears will need this win and some good style points while doing to to even have an outside chance at a National title berth.

As we can see, the Baylor offense holds some distinct advantages over the Sooners so far this season.  The Bears have a ridiculous big play rate (runs of 10 yards or more or passing plays of 15 yards or more).  Theyve done it by minimizing lost plays, with a very low number of tackles for loss allowed.  The Sooners do hold a slight advantage in drives getting to the red zone, but that could be in part just because Baylor has so many big plays.  Both teams are better than average as well at not going three and out, with Baylor doing so on just 14.8% of their drives and Oklahoma on just over 22% of theirs.  

Defensively, both teams have actually played solid ball, allowing nearly identical big play rates.  However, Baylor has taken advantage of their weaker competition, allowing just three yards per play and allowing red zone score on just 55% of their drives.  The Sooners 88.9% success allowed rate is slightly higher than the national average, and will need to tighten up if the Sooners look to have a chance.  

Because Baylor has been so good at pressuring opposing passers, and because the bets defense might just be to slow the overall pace of the game to a crawl.  That would be the Sooners bets choice anyways it looks like, since their run game is the strength of the team. 

Bell did have one of his best games last week against Texas Tech, positing an 11.3 yards per attempt number while completing 64% of his passes for two TDs and no Ints.  

Bryce Petty doesnt get the headlines that some of the other QBs in the country do, but he's been pretty muc perfect all season long.  He's only once this season completed fewer than 60% of his passes, and has tossed just a single Int.  He also is averaging well into the double digits for his yards per attempt, an incredible feat.  Below is his QB rating for the season and how it compares to his average game by game

Thursday night promises to be entertaining, and could very easily be the game that decides the fate of the Big 12.  Baylor has yet to be battled tested really, but they've been just downright impressive in just grinding down every opponent.  They should be able to win at home with relative ease, bu Oklahoma could keep it close if they can get the run game going.