Once conference play starts, we'll break down a match up from each conference that we think presents great entertainment and betting value. Since most teams are playing non conference games (and a lot of cupcakes), we're just going to go around the league and quickly break down several games with solid value.
Toledo (+17) at Mizzou
The Rockets were only able to put up 6 points against Florida, and QB Terrance Owens completed just 44.7% of his passes. This though was against one of the best defenses in the country in the Gators, and it occurred in Gainesville. David Fluellen was able to average over 5 yards per caryr on his limited attempts, including 2 runs of more than 10 yards. The defense looked shaky early on, but allowed just one TD in the second half, and allowed under 5 yards per pass attempt int he second half with just 1 third down conversion passing all day. Mizzou is still a little tough to get a ready on since they played Murray State, so the thumping they put on doesn't tell us much if the concerns about the defense have been mitigated completely. Florida though is the much better team, and so we expect Toledo to play up to their potential in this week's match up.
Colorado State at Tulsa (-10)
Both of these teams are coming off stinging losses for different reasons. The Rams lost to in state rivals CU in a game where they had two special teams TDs, but could garner just 4.4 yards per play on offense, and converted just 14% of their third down attempts. The defense also gave up big plays in the passing game (6 of 15+) and could not get off the field on third downs, allowing a 40% conversion rate. Tulsa on the other hand struggled to get anything going against a tough Bowling Green defense, managing just 2.1 yards per carry in the run game and the passing game didn't fair much better as the QBs combined for just a 48.8% completion rate and 5.4 yards per attempt. However, the defense was not nearly as bad as the 34 points would look, since Tulsa lost 2 fumbles and allowed a punt return for a TD. They allowed just a 42% completion rate and picked off a pass while generating 3 QB hurries and a sack. If CSU can't get leverage in the special teams game, Tulsa should be able to right the ship this weekend at home.
Texas (-7) at BYU
Texas struggled for the first half of the game with the score at 14-7 at half time against New Mexico State. David Ash then turned it on in the second half, going 8-11 with 156 yards and 2 tds with no ints. The running game also put together more big plays with 9 runs of over 10 yards and scoring 4 times, while averaging 5 yards per carry in the red zone. The defense played well all game, recording 6 tackles for loss and allowing just 4.1 yards per offensive play for NMSU. BYU on the other hand struggled and lost to ACC bottom Virginia, averaging just 3.9 yards per play on offense. QB Taysom Hill averaged just 4.4 yards per attempt and completed only 32.5% of his passes. The BYU defense did its best, keeping the opposing passing game to just 3.6 yards per attempt, but it wont be anything like they'll face against Texas.
South Carolina at Georgia -3.5
Everyone is down on this Bulldog team, but are failing to point out that those weren't the Clemson Tigers you've grown accustomed to watching through the years. Georgia takes a big step down in competition this week on the offensive side of the ball as not even Steve Spurrier completely trusts his starting QB Connor Wood. While Wood has been known to improvise and make a few big plays, he's terrible at reading coverage and has little patience as plays develop. The dual threat QB relies on his feet far too much. On the flipside, Aaron Murray is a legitimate pro prospect and is far more impressive in moving the ball down the field. The Gamecock defense worries me a bit as Jadaveon Clowney and the rest of the big boys could cause trouble for a banged up Georgia O-Line, but I think there are just way too many options on offense for Georgia and far too few for South Carolina to keep them in this one.
San Jose St (+26) at Stanford
Now I realize that Stanford is one of the top 5 teams in the nation. Junior Kevin Hogan seems to fit perfectly in their run first offense behind their elite offensive line, but I expect a relatively slow start in their first game of the season. Make no mistake of San Jose St, this is a talented team even without former head coach Mike MacIntyre who is in Colorado now. David Fales was the most accurate QB in the entire country last year, and while he looked a bit out of sync against FCS Sacramento State, I expect him to return to form. The Spartans defeated a weak opponent last week 24-0, but the game was well out of reach early. I wouldn't look into the final margin being small as they rushed out to a big lead and finished in cruise control. RB Jason Simpson looked great in his first start, averaging 6 yards per carry, and while he and his Spartans will obviously be moving up drastically in difficulty, this is a team that has won 8 games in a row and should at the very least not get completely blown out.
Bowling Green at Kent State (+7.5)
In the conference opener for both teams, Bowling Green comes in as fairly sizeable road chalk after a dominating performance over Tulsa last week. Our selection is Kent State and while they had trouble against FCS Liberty last week, they were banged up for most of the game and should be at full strength come game time. Star RB Dri Archer will be ready to play and should give the BG defense a tougher task than the depleted Tulsa backfield did. Redshirt Freshman Colin Reardon looked good in his debut completing 21 of 28 passes for 194 yards and 2 TDs. He's got a game under his belt now and should be ready for the bigger challenge.
South Carolina at Georgia -3.5
Everyone is down on this Bulldog team, but are failing to point out that those weren't the Clemson Tigers you've grown accustomed to watching through the years. Georgia takes a big step down in competition this week on the offensive side of the ball as not even Steve Spurrier completely trusts his starting QB Connor Wood. While Wood has been known to improvise and make a few big plays, he's terrible at reading coverage and has little patience as plays develop. The dual threat QB relies on his feet far too much. On the flipside, Aaron Murray is a legitimate pro prospect and is far more impressive in moving the ball down the field. The Gamecock defense worries me a bit as Jadaveon Clowney and the rest of the big boys could cause trouble for a banged up Georgia O-Line, but I think there are just way too many options on offense for Georgia and far too few for South Carolina to keep them in this one.
San Jose St (+26) at Stanford
Now I realize that Stanford is one of the top 5 teams in the nation. Junior Kevin Hogan seems to fit perfectly in their run first offense behind their elite offensive line, but I expect a relatively slow start in their first game of the season. Make no mistake of San Jose St, this is a talented team even without former head coach Mike MacIntyre who is in Colorado now. David Fales was the most accurate QB in the entire country last year, and while he looked a bit out of sync against FCS Sacramento State, I expect him to return to form. The Spartans defeated a weak opponent last week 24-0, but the game was well out of reach early. I wouldn't look into the final margin being small as they rushed out to a big lead and finished in cruise control. RB Jason Simpson looked great in his first start, averaging 6 yards per carry, and while he and his Spartans will obviously be moving up drastically in difficulty, this is a team that has won 8 games in a row and should at the very least not get completely blown out.
Bowling Green at Kent State (+7.5)
In the conference opener for both teams, Bowling Green comes in as fairly sizeable road chalk after a dominating performance over Tulsa last week. Our selection is Kent State and while they had trouble against FCS Liberty last week, they were banged up for most of the game and should be at full strength come game time. Star RB Dri Archer will be ready to play and should give the BG defense a tougher task than the depleted Tulsa backfield did. Redshirt Freshman Colin Reardon looked good in his debut completing 21 of 28 passes for 194 yards and 2 TDs. He's got a game under his belt now and should be ready for the bigger challenge.
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