By: Rich Douglas
Rich: The NFC West will probably have the best division race in the entire league. The odds are basically split between the top two teams.
Douglas: Agreed, and while 5dimes has a slight edge to the Niners, I'm going to give a slight edge to Seattle. They were the youngest team in the league last year, and they didn't take any significant losses in the offseason, turning over just a third of the roster, 27th in the league
Rich: I'm giving the Seahawks the nod as well. Obviously Russell Wilson is the big story for them, but their 3 man Running Back tandem of Lynch, Michael, and Turbin will stabilize the offense if Wilson has any kind of Sophomore Slump.
Douglas: Agreed. That offensive line is also ultra efficient, ranking 1st in Stuff rate, with just 15% of their runs getting stuffed, and converting 70% of their power situations, and at +125, I also think they're the best bet in the division, because while St. Louis is improved, they aren't near the other top tier teams
Rich: I'm going to throw out the Arizona Cardinals who are rightfully 33 to 1. The 49ers of course, pose a real threat to Seattle.
Douglas: I do like the Niners with positive EV for the bet.
Rich: Aldon Smith and Justin Smith will lead that very talented defense that will be among the tops in the league. They'll blow up every opposing left side of their opponent's line. Ray McDonald and Ahmad Brooks are excellent at stopping the run and complete a Defensive Line that might be my favorite in the league. What keeps me from betting the Niners is their secondary. At 32, I don't have as much faith in Carlos Rogers as most do, I can't help but get Nnamdi Asomugha's Philly days out of my head and Chris Culliver will continue to get picked on by opposing QBs. I know, Kaepernick is great, but it's going to be a tight race, and I have to give Seattle the nod.
Douglas: In the AFC West, I think its a one Horse race, pardon the pun. Denver is at -350, and rightfully so. Peyton Manning was absolutely destructive once he got into rhythm with Eric Decker and Demariyus Thomas, who broke out by posting a 67% catch rate, and a healthy 5.7 yards after catch. They of course added Wes Welker, who with DT and Decker forcing teams to defend vertically could carve up the interiors after his own 5.8 yards after catch. They also get one of the easier schedules in the league, and a team that was just averaged 27 years old
Rich: The offense will be very productive. The only real thing that will stop them is any sort of injury to Manning, who silenced all his doubters with a fantastic comeback last season. The Offensive Line was already very stout, but the addition of Louis Vazquez makes them one of the best lines in the NFL.
I can't say I'd bet on the Broncos though as you're one big hit on Manning away from losing any value you thought you'd have on that bet. I'm not suggesting that'll happen, but that's the risk you'd take at betting the -350.
While the Chiefs are greatly improved, I don't think they'll come close to Denver in the standings.
Douglas: I also worry about Denver's defense through the first 6 games without Von Miller. There is no one on the roster that can rush the passer, with only Derek Wolfe being slightly effective now with the departure of Elvis Dumervil.
The Chiefs actually give some solid action by EV, if you give Denver an 80% chance to win the division, the Chiefs are the only other real contenders and have positive EV at that level. Alex Smith should provide them with a solid QB option, which was really the difference last year
Rich: We agree yet again, as far as value goes. Eric Berry and Kendrick Lewis are both finally healthy and at full form which will go a long way for their secondary. Justin Houston and Tamba Hali combined for 19 sacks last season and have showed no signs of slowing. It should be noted that Ryan Clady's only sack allowed was against Tamba Hali. Like I said, I don't really see them winning it, but +565 is certainly bettable.
Douglas: Moving around the nation, the Packers are the favorite to win the NFC North. At -145 they're bettable, and the Bears are next at a distant +360. How do you feel about them?
Rich: While the Offensive Line is better, it still worries me. We'll see how well Kyle Long adjusts to the NFL as he has tremendous upside at guard. Newly acquired Jermon Bushrod protects Cutler's blindside and is a definite upgrade, but Roberto Garza is in the twilight of his career and could be much less effective this year. That being said, this team should flourish under new head coach Marc Trestman. If I had to make a bet in this division, it'd be Chicago. The line was atrocious last year, should improve this year, and they were 7-1 before Jay Cutler got injured last season.
Douglas: I'm with you there. Good EV, especially with a suspect Packers line suffering through some injuries already this pre season. Marshall Newhouse was one of the worst tackle sin the league last year, allowing 9.5 sacks. I also expect Aaron Rodgers to continue getting whacked because thats how this offense operates with the deep passes. They also saw the most self destructive opponents, who committed 152 penalties (and that wont happen again). I still think the Pack has enough fire power to win the division, but the EV isn't there. Add in that I think the Vikings improve slightly, and the Lions could be fantastic if they don't self destruct as they've done in the past
The Bears could take this division if Alshon Jeffrey steps up and provides a decent second target for Cutler as well, so he doesn't have to force so many passes to Marshall
Rich: The AFC North is wide open, with the exception of the Browns who are over 7 to 1. I'm looking at taking the Bengals to sneak out on top of the division at +175. It honestly isn't great value considering you're going up against the defending Super Bowl champs, and an always game Steelers team, but I'm obviously down on those two teams which leaves me with the Bengals.
Andy Dalton will need to improve to become a solid NFL QB and I'm not sure he will, but the addition of Giovanni Bernard will be huge for this team who had great difficulty moving the ball consistently on the ground. It should help open up things for Dalton who has a great set of targets in A.J. Green, Andrew Hawkins, and Tyler Eifert to throw to.
Douglas: I agree about the Bengals. I think they're poised for a breakout year. Andy Dalton has a ton of weapons in AJ Green, and Mohamed Sanu and a late round pick Cobi Hamilton who is an absolute burner. They've also got one of the best pass rushing defenses in the league I think with Geno Atkins providing all that pressure up the middle, is the best pass rushing DT in the league (30 QB Hurries!). They also added on offense my favorite player in this last draft, Giovanni Bernard. This guy can do it all, and is going to become the starter early on and provide a ton of big plays.
I also think the Ravens are a team that ran the momentum wheel last year, and now has lost too many pieces to stay a contender. Remember the talk before Rahim Moore forgetting how to play defense was about Joe Flacco possibly not even being re-signed. They're still I think a touch better than the Steelers though, so if not Cincy I think its them.
Rich: The NFC South should be a fun race and I could legitimately make a case for betting every team in the division. I think the Saints will win it, but at +160 I'll likely look elsewhere. Instead, I'm looking at the Panthers at +465 as a team that has a tremendous amount of value. The Panthers will go as Cam Newton goes and I think he'll be improved in every facet of the game. In the final six games of the season, Newton threw for 10 TDs and 2 INTs which led to a 5-1 record to close out the season.
Douglas: Agreed, I think its a wide open division. I think Atlanta's offense holds them over for one more year, but the Panthers provide the best EV. Beware though, last year was the second year in a row that they were extremely efficient down the stretch, after a pretty poor start. They did do their best to fix that defensive line with a steal at 14th overall Star Lotulelei, and my favorite DT in the draft Purdue's Kawann Short. The offense also did add Domenik Hixon, who quietly posted a 66% catch rate with 14.5 yards per catch last year.
Rich: The AFC South will be the only real chalk bet that I'll be looking to make. I have no faith in the Colts. While I really like Andrew Luck, just as almost everyone else does, the Colts were the first team in league history to go 11-5 and be outscored on the season. The Texans picked up possibly the best WR in the draft to help aid Matt Schaub as Andre Johnson and Owen Daniels have been his only consistent WRs during his time in Houston. I'm not worried about Arian Foster's injury concerns, mainly because I think Ben Tate will do just as good of a job behind a big Offensive Line that returns all 5 starters from last year's successful campaign. J.J. Watt is ridiculous and is the best defensive player in the league and the Linebacking core will have Brian Cushing back. It's -210, but it's the only outcome I see happening.
Douglas: The Texans are -210, so not a ton of value to it even if they do run away with the division. But, they should with the stable of backs they have with Arian Foster and Ben Tate to pick up for him when he misses a game with injury as it looks like he will this year. The defense again returns and they're going to get to face one of the easiest schedules in the NFL, Football Outsiders ranking it 30th easiest.
I also don't trust Luck. My image of his rookie campaign will always be the comeback against the Lions, when somehow unexplainably his wide receiver is wide open just running across the end zone, in front of about half the Lions defense. That team just got lucky last year, and I don't see it continuing
Douglas: In the NFC East, I've got the Redskins as both the best bet and winner of the division. And its because I think RG3 has the potential to win the MVP this year if healthy. He's much better in the pocket than a lot of analysts give him credit for. They averaged 6.8 yards per play when he was under center. And he's in the perfect offense for a QB that is able to be accurate on the move and is just a high football intellect with Mike Shannahan.
The defense should also be better with the return of Brian Orakpo, and Adam Carriker
Rich: I'm going to go with the Giants, and not with much confidence. I'm going to ignore the second half of Eli's season last year as I don't think it's time that he starts regressing. Having Hakeem Nicks alongside a (hopefully) healthy Victor Cruz will give his numbers a boost in a big way. The loss of Andre Brown hurts, as he's broken his leg back to back years now, but David Wilson is a stud and should complete a somehow overlooked offense
Douglas: In the AFC, I think the Patriots are favorites again, but this could be the end of their just dominance I think. That offense has been completely turned over, and the defense really is running on reputation at this point. The schedule is also much more difficult this season I believe, getting that toughened up NFC South and the Denver Broncos with Von Miller back from suspension. But, they still have Tom Brady who has made magic happen with some very un-elite level receiving units, Gronkowski should be back earlier than expected, and the offensive line might not be awful this yearThey will also get a full year of Aqib Talib, so the pass defense should improve quite a bit he had 18 stops last year with them
Rich: I won't be betting this one at all. If I really had to i'd go with the Dolphins. Ryan Tannehill has been a favorite of mine ever since his days at Texas A&M. Mike Wallace and Brandon Gibson will really help him out, but the line will struggle after they inexplicably let Jake Long walk. I'm not sold on their running game, and neither is head coach Joe Philbin as he hasn't named anyone to start yet, but it's +430 and that looks to be the best option.
Douglas: Yep, solid EV there I think if you believe the Pats could struggle this year. The defense does add Dion Jordon, who with Cameron Wake could form a pair like Orakpo Kerrigan in Washington. The secondary is a mess though, with no DB reaching a 50% success rate last year
Rich: So those are our thoughts on the divisions. Whatever you decide to bet on, good luck.
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