Table Guide
Column 1) Effective Field Goal Percentage. 2) Turnover Rate. 3) Free Throw Rate.
4) Offensive Rebound Rate. 5) Defensive Effective Field Goal Percentage.
6) Defensive Turnover Rate. 7) Defensive Free Throw Rate. 8) Defensive Rebound Rate.
9) Offensive Rating (Higher is better). 10) Defensive Rating (Lower is better)
Arizona (1) vs. Weber State (16) - Arizona hasn't let the loss of Brandon Ashley hold them down. The nation's most efficient defense (86.9 D-Rating) has tons of depth for a deep tournament run. What is perhaps most impressive is the fact that they've recorded that elite D-Rating against the likes of UCLA, Oregon, and the rest of the offensively proficient Pac 12. They'll outrebound just about every team with Tarczewski, Gordon, and Hollis-Jefferson roaming the front court. Weber State continues their success even after Damian Lillard's graduation. Davion Berry has filled in nicely as the team's starting PG and is the key to their offense. The senior leads the team in ORtg, eFG, TS%, Possessions, Shots, assists, points, and Free Throws.
Gonzaga (8) vs. Oklahoma State (9) - In what is probably the best 8/9 matchup of the tournament, Marcus Smart will attempt to right an up and down season. With their 7 game losing streak in the rear view mirror, a very capable Cowboy offense led by Marcus Smart, Markel Brown, and Phil Forte will need to see if their defense will be up to the task against Gonzaga. The Bulldogs are deep on both sides of the ball. Kevin Pangos, Gary Bell, Sam Dower, and Drew Barham all have ORtg's north of 120. Their 13th ranked defense (93.7 D-Rating) will have plenty to handle as well.
Oklahoma (5) vs. North Dakota State (12) - The oddsmakers are onto this one. This in our opinion is the likeliest 5/12 upset as two very even big time offenses try to outscore each other. The Bison are led by perhaps the most underrated Power Forward in the nation, Marshall Bjorklund. Bjorklund is shooting 63% from the field while recording a 121 ORtg and a 62.8 eFG which good for 18th in the entire nation. They do however have trouble defensively (140th D-rating) which may lead to their demise against the 15th most efficient offense. Lon Kruger's up tempo offense has been at times unstoppable this season. They have tons of depth with 5 regulars having O-Rating's of over 110. They also have a Power Forward of their own in Ryan Spangler that is among the most efficient shooters in the country. Coach Kruger is trying to get over some demons of his own however as his Oklahoma and UNLV teams are 1-4 in their last 5 NCAA tournament games.
San Diego State (4) vs. New Mexico St. (13) - The Aztecs are all about their team defense as they finished the season 7th in the nation with a 90.9 D-Rating. Their problem though is that outside of standout senior Xavier Thames, SDSU has no other real scoring options. Three of their starters have O-Ratings of 100 or less, but they should still be able to make an impact in this game due to their obvious defensive strengths. New Mexico State on the other hand have plenty of scoring options. It remains to be seen whether or not they'll be able to score on an elite defense like this, but their 112 O-Rating was good for 42nd in the nation this year.
Baylor (6) vs. Nebraska (11) - Both of these teams finished their seasons strong and looked to be dangerous under the radar matchups against whoever they faced. I personally have Baylor going to the Elite 8 because of their numerous scoring options and ability to control the pace of the game. They have perhaps the best 3 point shooter in the game (Brady Heslip 2nd O-Rating in the nation), a very efficient PG in Kenny Cherry, future lottery pick Isiah Austin, and big bodied Rico Gathers who is as strong as any player in college basketball. Tim Miles has completely turned around the Huskers just as he turned around Colorado State before he arrived in Lincoln. While Nebraska has been prone to going through long offensive droughts, their defense has kept them in games, and the scoring and leadership of center Walter Pitchford propelled them into the tournament.
Creighton (3) vs. UL Lafayette (14) - The nations number 1 offense (125.7 O-Rating) is led by player of the year candidate Doug McDermott. McDermott should win the award as he's done just about everything for the Blue Jays. We know McDermott will score, but their offense goes way past him. Ethan Wragge has only taken 7 shots inside the arc this season. That's because Wragge is 104-220 beyond the arc, good for 47.3%. In fact, Creighton has 5 players that shoot 40% or greater beyond the arc. UL Lafayette will need to play their best game of the season, but do have a good offense themselves. They averaged over 80 points/game during the Sun Belt conference tournament.
Oregon (7) vs. BYU (10) - This region is all about the offenses and this matchup features 2 very explosive ones that can take over games. Oregon has had a strange season. After starting off 13-0, they lost 8 of their next 10 and were in danger of missing out on the tournament. Their 12th ranked offense willed them to win their final 8 games and are now a team no one wants to face. The Cougars stumbled in the WCC championship game against Gonzaga, but still remain a dangerous threat. Like Oregon, the Cougars have trouble defensively allowing basically the same eFG% while hitting the same eFG%. This one should go down to the wire.
Wisconsin (2) vs. American (15) - The American Eagles shouldn't be overlooked as a 15 seed because of their ability to shutdown offenses.They're holding teams to just a 45.9 eFG and have a turnover rate of 20. They're ranked 46th overall in D-Rating, but will have to play their best offensive game of the season by far in order to advance. Turnovers have been a killer as their TOV% is 22.8 (342nd in the nation and worst in the tournament). The Badgers on the other hand have a TOV% of 12.6 (2nd in the nation and best in the tournament). They're the 5th most efficient team on offense in the nation and are led by Ben Brust (121 ORtg), Frank Kaminsky (124.7 ORtg) and Josh Gasser (130 ORtg). As long as they continue to protect the ball, they should avoid the upset.
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