Saturday, April 26, 2014

Does Colin Cowherd have a point about John Wall?

The Wizards 2013-2014 season really has to be considered a great success.  They've reached the playoffs for the first time since 2008, reaching their highest win total since 2004.  One of the major contributing factors has been that 2010 first overall pick John Wall has been healthy all season, playing in all 82 games for the first time in his career.  Wall has played well this season, reaching his first all star game and has lead the league with 721 assists.

Colin Cowherd though has not shared the enthusiasm for the young PG.  Some of his criticism is a little over the top (questions of Wall's ability to sell jerseys, or his dancing ability), but he also brings up aspects of Wall's game that deserve some observation.  The biggest critique starts with John's shooting, illustrated in the below shot chart.

John Wall's Shot chart 2013-2014 Regular Season
Red: Below League Average
Yellow: Around League Average
Green: Above League Average
As we can see, Wall has struggled in comparison with the rest of the league in a lot of areas, going below league average in eight of the fourteen regions.  Amongst point guards, his 52.4% True Shooting rate ranks him just 36th amongst qualifying players.  Thats behind the likes of Jordan Farmar, and Alec Burks, and in the same zone as Brandon Knight and Ben Udrih, not exactly elite company.  Wall is still a developing shooter, he dramatically increased his volume of three point attempts, but struggled convert a lot of those shots.  He ranked just 23rd amongst qualifying point guards (players who played a majority of at least 60 games and at least 1500 minutes as a PG) with a total of 35%.  John Wall is just not a very good shooter.

His offensive rating also wasn't particularly high, ranking 20th  amongst qualifying PGs.  This is a surprising fact, since Wall does a good job of drawing fouls (12.5% of his shots draw one), and his assist rate is around 40% (in terms of points scored while he's on the court), but its the turnovers that really hurt.  Wall lead the league in turnovers this season, and posted a 2.44 Asssist to turnover ratio, 17th amongst his peers.  

Defensively Wall is a solid player.  His steals to turnover ratio is similar to most of his contemperaries, at about .5.  His ability to guard other players in the 10-20 foot region is pretty solid, allowing 39,1% at 10-14 feet and just 401.1 at 15-20, both in the upper half of eligible guards.  

Overall it paints a picture of Wall being a solid player, but one that if he can't improve his shooting won't be one that the Wizards can really center themselves around.  So while some of Cowher'ds concerns might be a little ridiculous, the main thrust holds up to us.  


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