Despite an injury to the man with the bets name in college football, the Bearcats were able to pile up nine wins and having had a shot for a share of the Conference title. Cinncy was able to do it by defense, ranking 12th in the nation with just 19.5 points allowed per game. North Carolina took the tougher route to get bowl eligible, losing five of six to start the season before rattling off five straight wins against ACC foes including an 80 point effort against Old Dominion.
The Cincinnati offense took a big blow when Munchie Legaux went down against Illinois tearing ligaments in his left knee. Brendon Kay stepped in, and has been able to play pretty good ball. He completed 68.4% of his passes for 8.7 yards per attempt with a 2:1 touchdown to interception ratio. Kay has been able to convert 44% of his third down pass attempts, and is better than 50% in the range of six yards or less. Anthony McClung has a chance to go over a thousand yards this season, picking up 908 on 68 receptions during the regular season. McClung had a catch in every game that he played, and the last five had at least 90 yards.Cincinnati should look to get Mekale McKay more involved down the field, with half of his receptions going for more than 20 yards. The backfield has been a three headed attack, with Hosey Williams, Ralph David Abernathy and Tion Green. The trio have combined for better than 1450 yards, and have 15 touchdowns. Overall the run game has been somewhat inefficient the last few months, averaging under four yards a carry and averaging just 141 yards per game.
The Tarheels experienced their own loss of QB when Bryn Renner went down early in November with a shoulder injury, bringing in the more dual threat Marquise Williams. Williams, a sophomore, completed just 58% of his passes for 8.3 yards per attempt with 14 touchdowns and six interceptions. He also though rushed for 490 yards on his 102 attempts, and scored six more touchdowns on the ground. He struggled on third downs in longer situations, converting just a third of his attempts over seven yards, but was at 41% conversion rate when less than six yards to go. The biggest threat in the receiving game certainly is Eric Ebron, the big junior TE. Ebron has 55 catches to lead the team, with 895 yards. His 22 receptions of more than fifteen yards leads the team, and he has gone nine for ten on third down conversions. Wide out Quinshad Davis has also had a very good year averaging 15.4 yards per catch, and has ten touchdown receptions. He's been a red zone target, with all five of his catches there going for touchdowns, and is explosive in his own right with 20 catches of fifteen yards or more. Freshman TH Logan has the second most carries to Williams at 78 touches, and has averaged 5.9 yards per attempt. His second halves have been very good, with seven runs of more than ten yards on 37 carries, and is averaging seven yards a carry.
The Bearcats defense is lead by senior linebacker Greg Blair, who tallied 96 tackles this season, 6.5 of them for loss. He also added five more QB hurries to a defense that got to QBs, tallying 35 sacks and another 40 QB hurries. Silveryberry Mouhon and Jordan Stepp combined for 15.5 sacks, with Mouhon adding another seven QB hurries. The run defense was stout as well, allowing only 3.1 yards per carry and ten touchdown on the ground. They allowed fewer than 200 total yards in the month of November, with just a pair of touchdowns. The Heels meanwhile have not been the defense theyve been known to be the last several seasons, but Kareem Martin has continued to be one of the best ends in the ACC. Martin has 78 tackles, 20 of them for loss. He has 11 sacks to lead the team and has 14 more QB hurries while batting down three passes. Opponents have had just a 57.1% completion rate with 7 yards per attempt and theyve picked of 12 passes. Opponents have found more space on the ground, allowing 12% of the carries against them to gain at least ten yards.
UNC has been riding a hot streak to get into this game, but the Bearcats have been the more consistently solid team this season. Theyve managed to go three and out on only 12.1% of their drives this season, and have averaged 36 yards per drive; compare this to North Carolina's 25.5% rate and 33.6 yards per drive. This game should belong to Cincinnati at +2.5.
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