SEC Championship Game: Auburn vs Missouri

These two Tiger teams face off in one of the more unlikely SEC matchups.   Missouri was coming off just a dreadful first season in the SEC, and Auburn was experiencing one of the worst in the programs history.  They had combined to be just 2-14 last season against SEC foes.  This season though theyve combined to win 20 games, knocking off favorites like Georgia, Texas A&M, and of course Alabama.  This game should promise to be close and exciting thoruought.

Both of these teams are powered by their run games on offense.  Mizzou's top three rushers are each averaging better than six yards per carry, with Henry Josey leading the bunch.  Josey should be able to break 1000 yards, sitting at 951 and having scored 13 touchdowns already this season.  at just 190 pounds Josey would not be expected to be good in power situations, but he;s converted 54% of his third and short carries and is averaging 2.9 yards per carry in the redzone.  He's taken over in the second halves of games as well, averaging nearly eight yards per carry.  The Tigers form the plains though aren't to be outdone, as Tre Mason, Nick Marshall and Corey Grant each average better than 5.5 yards per carry, with Grant at 9.8/  Tre Mason is a workhorse back, carrying the ball 237 times, scoring 18 times and moving the chains on 72% of his third down carries.  

Both offenses match up the same, the advantage in the passing game tilting heavily towards Mizzou.  These Tigers have two excellent Wide Receivers in L'Damian Washington and Dorial Green-Beckham who each have double digit TDs; the former has an 18 yards per catch average while the latter leads the team with 7 redzone touchdowns on his ten catches.  

James Franklin of Missouri though might not have that much time to find his wideouts.  Auburn has one of the best hurry rates in the nation, recording 97 QB hurries this season.  Dee Ford is the most dangerous pass rusher they have, leading the team with 8 sacks and 16 QB hurries.  They will also have to watch for Elijah Daniel, a freshman DE that has just two sacks, but could see that number blossom since he also has 11 hurries.  This pressure though hasn't translated into great pass defense, with Auburn allowing 58% of passes to be completed for 7.3 yards per attempt.  

This one should come down to the wire down in Atlanta.  James Franklin looked much more comfortable last week against A&M than he had against Ole Miss the week before, completing 64.3% of his passes for 8.3 yards and a pair of TDs.  Its unlikely though that they'll be able to generate enough negative plays against an Auburn offense that has gone three and out just 16.8% of their drives, and just 5 times the last three weeks.  Auburn takes a close, exciting game.