Chick Fil A Bowl: Texas A&M vs Duke

Duke was easily the most surprising team this season.  The Blue Devils were looked at as a team that had exceeded expectations last year, and would be at best a bowl eligible team this year, and more likely to return to the basement of the ACC.  Instead, they pulled off win after win, using a [pair of QBs all season to reach 10 wins and the ACC championship game.  Texas A&M had to feel disappointed losing four games this year after just a pair of losses last year, and missing out on a BCS bowl berth.  It was the defense that did them in, allowing 30.9 points per game

Texas A&M's offense is headlined by the ultimate love or hate QB Johnny Manziel.  Manziel actually followed up his Heisman campaign with a better performance as a redshirt sophomore, completing 69.1% of his passes for 9.5 yards per attempt and 33 touchdowns to just 13 interceptions.  A full 23% of his passes went for more than fifteen yards, and he converted 54% of his third down attempts (up from 51.8% the previous season).  Its no surprise that his performance took another step forward with the emergence of Mike Evans as a go to receiver.  Evans averaged 20.3 yards per catch on his 65 receptions.  The 225 pound wideout went ten for 12 on his third down catches, and averaged 17 yards per catch inside the maroon zone.   It also helps that the offensive line allowed pressure on just 10% of the team's dropbacks, keeping the QB clean.   Manziel was also the team's best runner, averaging 5.2 yards per carry and scoring 8 times.  The main back taking hand offs was Ben Malena, a senior who averaged 4.7 yards per carry and gained 506 yards.  Malena was very good in the maroon zone, averaging 5.4 yards per carry and scored all ten of his touchdowns from inside the opponents 20.  Overall, it meant the Aggies used their possession efficiently, going three and out just 16% of the time, and scoring on over half of their drives.

The Blue Devils had a pair of QBs take snaps this season, with Anthony Boone starting most games but Brandon Connette taking several series a game.  The pair combined to complete 63% of their passes for 7.1 yards per attempt, while tossing 23 touchdowns, but also throwing 17 interceptions.  The passing game only converted 33.9% of its third down attempts.  The main reciepient of the efforts in the game was Jamison Crowder, the junior wideout who hauled in 96 receptions for Duke.  He averaged just 12.5 yards per catch, but did have 50% of his receptions reuslt in a first down.  The offensive line had done its part, allowing a pressure on just 8.8% of the team's dropbacks.    The team's running game was lead by Jela Duncan and Josh Snead.  Duncan averaged 5 yards per carry and scored three times, carrying the ball for an average of 4.4 yards per attempt in the redzone.  Snead didnt have a lot of big runs (14 of ten or more on 90 attempts), but he consistently churned up yards averaging 6.1 yards per carry.

The Aggies defense was downright brutal.  Only twice this season did they keep opponents to fewer than 20 points, and they allowed fewer than five yards per play just twice as well.  Steven Jenkins and Darian Claiborne each had 89 tackles to pace the team, but the Aggies had a tackle for loss on just 7.1% of their defensive snaps.  This lead to running games scoring 20 times against them, and averaging 5.3 yards per carry.  Devante Harris and Tramain Jacobs lead the secondary with eight passes defensed each.  Overall the pass defense was just average, allowing 7.1 yards per attempt but a completion rate of just 56.5%.  The Blue Devils on the other hand were much more boom or bust in the passing game.  They allowed 21 passing touchdown, but intercepted 18 passes and defensed 56 passes.  Breon Borders and Jeremy Cash each had four interceptions, and combined for 12 passes defended.  Kenny Anunike was the best player for the front seven, totaling 13.5 tackles for loss amongst his 66 tackles.

Duke right now is a 12 point underdog to A&M and the total sits at 75.  This is a tough one to call, because Duke won games they shouldnt have and actually played very well against FSU until the Noles pulled away.  But the offense has enough question marks about whether or not they can keep up with the Aggies if Manziel can create some big plays.  The under is the more likely scenario, because of that struggling Duke offense and a defense that should at least slow down A&M.