Big 12 Game of the Week: Oklahoma vs Oklahoma State

In what will be the de facto Big 12 Championship game, Oklahoma State will face off with Oklahoma in the latest installment of the Bedlam Series.  State with a win will be the Big 12 champ, and headed certainly for a BCS bowl.  Oklahoma would like to start a new win streak which State had stopped in 2011. 

When Oklahoma State has the ball:

The Cowboys have been pouring it onto teams since their 24-10 win over TCU in the middle of October.  They’ve scored more than 40 points in all but one game, where they scored 38 against Texas.  It’s a little surprising since they’ve averaged just 30.8 yards per drive and just under six yards per play.  The turnaround the last month, as the Pokes beat ranked Texas and demolished Baylor, has been the play of Clint Chelf.  In November Chelf has completed 61% of his passes for 8.8 yards per attempt with 10 touchdowns and just three ints.  Its helped the team’s redzone efficiency greatly by going a perfect 19 for 19 on trips inside the opposition 20, scoring 18 TDs.  Tracy Moore has also hit his stride in November, averaging 16.4 yards per catch with 5 touchdowns, including a hundred yard effort last week against Baylor.  The offensive line has only allowed 4% of the Cowboys plays to end with negative yardage. 

The Sooners defense has been solid all year in conference play, allowing just 5.3 yards per play and averaging 6.4 tackles for loss per game.  They’re lead by sophomore Frank Shannon, who has 79 stops on the season with a pair of sacks and three more QB hurries.  They have effectively shut down most passing games, allowing just a 54% completion rate and 6.3 yards per attempt.  Zach Sanchez had defended 11 passes this season as a freshman, while Gabe Lynn leads the team with three interceptions.  Teams have been able to find some open running room against Oklahoma, despite them allowing just 4 yards per carry.  They’ve allowed 41 runs of more than 10 yards,  or 11.1% of opponents carries.

When Oklahoma has the ball:

The Sooners offense really has not been very explosive this year.   Just 15% of their plays have been big plays. And they’re averaging just 5.9 yards per play.  Its been in large part because of the inconsistency surrounding the QB position.  Trevor Knight will likely get the start again this weekend because of Blake Bell’s injury status,  which he might be able to build on his first truly outstanding game last week against K State.  Knight was able to complete 70% of his passes for 8.6 yards per attempt.  Knight might be best though on the run, where he’s averaged 7.7 yards per carry.  The run game has been the strength for the Sooners this year, as Brennan Clay has averaged 6.3 yards per carry with six touchdowns.   The team though is missing one of its best runners in Damien Williams who was dismissed from the team earlier this season.  Jalen Saunders continues to be the most targeted receiver, but is averaging just 12.1 yards per catch.  Jaz Reynolds is still the best big play threat, averaging a team best 16.8 yards per catch.

The Cowboys defense is one of the more underrated units in the nation, or it was until last week’s demolishing of Baylor.  They forced the Bears into 18 third down situations and allowed just 7 of them to be converted, and recovered a season high three fumbles.  They have 84 tackles for loss this season, lead by LB Caleb Leavy who has 11.5.  Leavy has also picked off four passes and recorded 82 tackles this season, all team highs.   Oklahoma State has been pretty solid against the run, allowing just 3.4 yards per carry, and they’ve only surrendered eight touchdowns on the ground, just two in the last four weeks.  The pass rush though is a bit weak, pressuring QBs on just 11% of their dropbacks. 

Whats our Take:

The Cowboys are the better team here, and they’re fighting for a BCS bowl berth.  So are the Sooners, but having to travel to Stillwater has been an uneasy task for teams this year.  Both teams do carry in some momentum, but the Cowboys should be able to walk away as Big 12 champs, with just a letdown against WVU  as their only blemish.