The Rice Owls and Marshall Thundering Herd rose this year to take the conference from usual favorites Tulsa and East Carolina. Marshall has done it by outracing opponents, running 78 plays a game and scoring 44 points. Rice on the other hand has been able to win close games all season, going 5-1 in games decided by one score.
When Marshall has the ball:
Rakeem Cato had been having a disappointing season before the month of November. Averaging a pedestrian 7.3 yards per attempt, with a 59% completion rate with just 15 touchdowns to six interceptions. Since November started though, he's completed 61% of his passes for 9.1 yards per attempt, and has 19 touchdowns with just a pair of picks. Tommy Shuler has been the biggest recipient of the turnaround, posting three 100+ yard games and six touchdowns in the last month. The biggest reason though Marshall is averaging 38.5 yards per drive has been the play all season of the running back corps, lead by Essray Taliaferro. The senior back has a 1000 yard season to go along with a 5.4 yards per carry average and nine rushing touchdowns. Essray has gone seven for nine on third and short, and is averaging 3.8 yards per carry in the redzone. His backfield mate has been Steward Butler, an explosive runner who has 22 runs of ten yards or more on his 83 carries, and has scored eight times. The offensive line has kept things chugging by allowing just 6% of their plays to go for negative yardage.
The Owls' defense could be vulnerable to some of these runs, giving up 4.1 yards per carry this season. They have been tougher though this past month, allowing just 3.6 yards per carry and only four touchdowns in their three games on the ground. Leading tackler Michael Kutzler has 79 stops this season with six tackles for loss with a pair of sacks. The secondary has also been tough on opposing passers, allowing just half of their attempts to be completed for 6.7 yards per attempt. Bryce Callahan has defended eight passes, and intercepted three more this season as the best player in the secondary. He's also tenth on the team with 31 tackles.
When Rice has the ball:
The Owls' offense doesn't look fantastic. They've averaged just 30 yards per drive and are scoring just 30 points per game with a 5.4 yards per play average. They have been efficient though, going three and out on just 18.7% of their drives. The reason for the low offensive output is the poor QB play of Taylor McHargue. He's completed just 52% of his passes for seven yards per attempt. He's been brutal on third downs, completing only 44.7% of his passes and converting just 31% of those passes. The saving grace has been the backfield of Charles Ross and Jawon Davis. Ross has 36 runs of more than ten yards, and in the maroon zone has been electric, averaging 5.4 yards per carry with 12 touchdowns and nine of those big runs. Davis is another explosive runner, with 18 runs of more than 10 yards on his 88 carries, and has averaged 6.6 yards per carry in the redzone.
The Herd defense has made plays in the backfield all season, posting a tackle for loss on 10.2% of their plays. James Rouse has a team high 12 tackles for loss, with four sacks and five QB hurries. In large part this has helped stymie running games, since Marshall has allowed only 3.5 yards per carry. They have been somewhat vulnerable to the big run, allowing 11.1% of runs to go for more than 10 yards. Twelve Marshall players have intercepted a pass this season, with AJ Leggett leading the team with three picks, while the rest of the secondary has defended 52 passes this season.
Whats Our Take:
Marshall has to travel to Houston to play this game, which is a mixed bag for Rice. The Owls are better on offense on the road by about a half a yard, but defensively are far superior at home by more than a yard per play. It shouldn't matter though, as the Herd will ride a red hot Rakeem Cato and an aggressive defense to the C-USA championship.
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