Prospect Review: Tampa Bay Rays

by Richard Douglas

The Rays have been the incumbent small market team that competes the past several years.  And its in large part because they had drafted well and kept the farm system in good order. However, that might be in question now.  They had hit on so many top picks (David Price, Evan Longoria etc etc), but the 08, 09 and 2010 drafts were graded no better than a C+, and had used over $20.6 million in those miscue filled drafts.  Some of that miscue though was recouped by trading James Shields to the Royals for one of the league's best prospects, Wil Myers.  Myers was drafted in 2009, and has been a power hitting force since then.  He;s hit 64 long balls in his 4 years, including 24 last year at AAA Omaha.  He also has a career .395 OBP, showing his ability to not just hit home runs, but also to draw walks (14.7% walk rate).  His ability to recognize hittable pitches has grown as well, and he posted a .425 wOBA.  His strong arm and just average speed will likely lead him to right field.  He's likely to get a call up this season.

The other top Royals prospect the Rays received back was righty Jake Odorizzi.  Odorizzi offers 4 pitches, with a low 90s fastball leading the group.  He also throws a curveball and slider that are already average pitches and could move to the plus range.  His changeup needs more refinement, but should be an average pitch in time.  Despite having no real out pitches, he's still been able to strike batters out at a solid 9.2 per 9 innings rate,  and keep the walk rate down to just 2.8 per 9 innings of work.  He will need to work on keeping the ball on the ground after inducing a ridiculously high 73.1% fly ball rate last year.

Chris Archer was traded several times before landing with the Rays, and his 2012 season was his best yet.  He posted a 3.4 FIP with a dominating 11 strikes outs per nine innings rate.  His fastball is a 92-96 mph offering, which he throws with great confidence.  He also has a slider that is in the mid 90s and has excellent tilting movement.  His changeup is just average and isn't used as anything more than an off balance offering.  His command has struggled at times, and he is not a natural fielder which can get him into trouble sometimes. He gave up just a single hit during spring training this year, but will spend the start of the season continuing to work command and control in Durham.

Andrew Toles might be the systems best athlete, running the bases well (14 steals to 5 caught stealing in his first year) and can cover center field easily.  He has a quick bat, and of he can shorten the swing could have above average power for his small 5'10 frame.  He has some maturity issues though, being suspended and kicked out of two programs in college.  Jake Hager is an interesting prospect not because of any one tool, but that he is solid all around.  Haker is a plus defender at short, and has good arm strength to be able to stick.  He can also hit for the position, with a .347 wOBA last year at the Low A level.