What The Colorado Avalanche Should Do

Richie Douglas

We're going to change gears here for a second and talk about something that has nothing to do with gambling. The NHL Draft! It'll eventually lead to gambling decision making next NHL season, so it's relevant.

The Colorado Avalanche have been in the news a lot lately. The 2001 Stanley Cup roster basically runs the team at this point and they're looking to make a splash in this year's draft with the first overall pick. Much has been discussed as to who the team should take and what they should do in their lucky position, but I think it's fairly obvious.

Draft Seth Jones. There have been plenty of articles written by free thinking logical hockey fans that state the obvious. Draft Seth Jones. I don't feel the need to explain myself very thoroughly. You can find hundreds of scouting reports on the Denver native and he can help fix a terrible defense. The Avs allowed 152 goals last season which was good for 27th in the league. More importantly, they ranked 27th in Corsi, only ranking ahead of the Flyers, Flames, and Panthers. It's fairly obvious that goaltender Semyon Varlamov was dealing with a lot more than he could handle as their Corsi ranking indicates that most of the action during an Avalanche game was in their own zone. Greg Zanon, Jan Hedja, Matt Hunwick, and the departed Ryan O'Byrne all had a negative Corsi-ON, and while Tyson Barrie and Eric Johnson both recorded positive shot differential numbers, it was Johnson that saw his role greatly reduced as his Quality of Competition was very low. He was being matched up mainly against bottom 6 forwards which make his numbers pedestrian.

I have faith in Tyson Barrie in that he'll become a very good defenseman for the team. He can push the puck up the ice, has great defensive instincts, and has some pop in his shot. Stefan Elliot has the potential to become a solid 2nd pairing option and should eventually line up next to Johnson, but its yet to be seen if he can handle the grind of a whole season. Hejda, Wilson, O'Brien, Hunwick, and Zanon will all be gone in the next two years as the team is in need of a rebuild on defense. Half these guys would be fringe 3rd pairing players on even average defenses.

Which leads us back to Seth Jones. He's arguably the best defensive prospect in the last 20 years, and while many point toward the Avalanche's own Eric Johnson as a cautionary tale to drafting a defenseman high, its an unfair case and should be overlooked. Just off of the top of my head, Drew Doughty, Alex Pietrangelo, Jack Johnson, Luke Schenn, Joni Pitkanen, and Oliver Ekman-Larsson were all top 5 or 6 picks, and all are the best defensemen on their respective teams. It's very rare to find gems later in the draft and star defensemen should be greatly coveted. You can't decide not to draft a Quarterback with a top pick because of Ryan Leaf and Akili Smith, that argument is foolish.

Unfortunately, this argument for Jones will go unheard. It's already been stated by the Avalanche brass that they'll be looking to draft the talented center Nathan MacKinnon with the number 1 overall pick. MacKinnon's talent isn't something to be overlooked as well. I remember first taking notice of him in 2010 like many other avid hockey fans did when he played at the World U-17s and became a YouTube sensation. He has all the tools to become a star and there is little doubt in my mind that he'll produce at the top level. All that aside, I have no idea where he fits in their lineup. On contract for next season, the Avalanche already have Statsny, O'Reilly, and Duchene at Center. With Mitchell centering the checking/energy line, there's no room for MacKinnon. I completely realize that both Statsny and O'Reilly have expiring contracts after this season and it was already highly unlikely that both of them would be brought back. This got me thinking…I truly believe the Avs are serious in saying that they want to take MacKinnon with the first overall pick, but who's to say they won't attempt to haggle with Florida for the second overall pick?

Here me out. Florida has a ton of money dedicated to their crappy defense already. When you already have 15 million going to an overrated Brian Campbell and aging vets Ed Jovanovski and Filip Kuba, it's time to start worrying. Luckily for them, they have a ton of depth at Defense in their farm system. It really is the one thing they don't need to be spending premium picks on. Erik Gudbranson has a ton of potential and at 21 years old, he'll be due for a new contract as well. There's a great need to start spending on a little offense. If they stand pat, they'll probably take Jonathan Drouin. Something tells me they may look towards a trade however, as they really had their hearts set on MacKinnon.

I guess the question now is, what the hell would take? It's been confirmed by CBC that the Avalanche have already rejected a trade from the Flames for their first overall pick. The Flames want Seth Jones so badly that they offered the 6th, 22nd, and 28th overall picks in this years draft to the Avalanche.  If the Avalanche want the second pick, they're going to have to beat that offer as the Flames will surely offer the Panthers that package with Jones still on the board. I really think they can beat that offer.

There are two things going for the Avalanche: Florida has a ton of cap room and can take on a big contract, and the Panthers have no depth at center. Honestly no impact players at this point. Why not see if they would be willing to take Paul Statsny (a player you're not going to resign anyways), Stefan Elliot (a solid cheap defensemen that won't be necessary anymore), Michael Sgarbossa (yet another prospect centerman to sweeten the deal), and this year's 32nd overall pick. Am I bat shit crazy to think that would work? I mean, it's a sweeter deal than what Calgary offered…I think. No, I know its a better deal. Is that too much? I really don't think so. All 3 players would be deemed expendable in Colorado and the Panthers would have 2 second round picks in a deep draft. It makes too much sense to me. I mean really, I thought this one through, it makes sense all around and works out financially for both teams. That's probably why it won't happen in any universe though.