Tuesday, March 26, 2013

Prospect Review: Chicago Cubs

by Richard Douglas

The Cubs have been the mark of futility since the turn of the 20th century, failing to capture a World Series now in over 100 years.  The ownership took big steps to try and change that with reshuffling the front office with Theo Epstein, and a large commitment to spending on the farm (over 20 million in 2011 and 2012 draft bonuses combined).  The first year did not yield much in terms of results, but the Cubs have been restocking the pitching of the farm system by drafting 7 pitchers and trading for several more.  But they also spent some top picks on polished high school bats starting with Javier Baez, a short stop out of Jacksonville.  Baez has an excellent swing which has one of the bat speeds in the minors.  He should develop solid power as well, hit 16 home runs at the low and high A levels.  Baez's most surprising tools those might be his defensive skill set.  He was scouted as an offensive short stop that might be moved to third with his strong arm, but so far he has fielded the position quite well.  His wOBA last season was a very solid .381, as was .860 OPS.  He's had a solid spring with a .908 OPS, with 4 home runs.  But, striking out 12 times in 47 at bats is why he needs some work to tame his aggressive plate nature.

The following year, the Cubs took another polished high schooler, again out of Florida.  Albert Almora signed for $3.9 million last June, and promptly went to work OPSing .795 in Rookie and Short Season level play with 12 doubles and a pair of home runs in 140 at bats.  He only walked twice during that period, which is concerning, but patience and maturity will likely come.  He has a natural swing that should develop into at least average power and a solid contact rate.  In the field, he plays balls very well, and has a very strong arm.  Despite his limited speed, his ability to read the ball off the bat could allow him to stray in center field.  He'll start at the High A or AA level, and could move quickly up the system.

The farm's best home grown pitching prospect is Pierce Johnson, a 21 year old righty that was sdrafted in the 1st round supplemental portion last eyar.  Johnson is a power pitcher, tossing a heater that lives at about 94 and can reach 96 with it.  His control though struggles because of it, but it hasn't shown too much yet in the lower levels where he's walked just 3 batters.  He also has an excellent curevball and a change up that lives in the low 80s that has developed nicely.  He'll likely move quickly through the system since its so thin on pitching.

The only pitcher ahead of Johnson according to Baseball America is Arodys Vizcaino, who missed all of last year after having Tommy John surgery.  Before the injury he threw a 93-95 mph fastball, and a good curevball.  He's an advanced prospect, but will likely need to stay at the AAA level in 2013 to finish returning fully form the injury, despite posting a 10.3 strike out rate there in 2011.  A final interesting prospect is Matt Szczur, an out fielder that played both baseball and football at Villanova Szczur is a speedster, stealing 68 bases to only 19 times getting caught.  His swing needs continued work as he doesn't muscle it as much as he should, but he was able to post a .349 wOBA.

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