Thursday, November 15, 2012

David Rudolph's NBA Corner - 11/15/12


 
Tonight's NBA slate includes three really good games. Brooklyn Vs. Celtics, Spurs Vs. the undefeated Knicks, and the match up I'm gonna focus on, Heat at Denver.

The Miami Heat looks to be mailing it in early in a season where they are the defending NBA champions. I have to agree with what I heard from a fellow professional gambler, "they seem to be going through the motions, and thinking they can just turn it on late in the year." The main problem with the Heat isn't hard to figure out, defense. Last year they ranked in the top five in defensive efficiency, this year, the bottom five. In their championship season they allowed only 16 of 66 opponents to go over 100 points, this year already 6 of them have. The Heat are 2-3 on the road and only won the two by a small margin. They are coming off a 100-107 loss last night in LA.

The Denver Nuggets have only played two of their eight games at home, winning them both and scoring 107 per contest. They push the pace at home more than most teams because of the thin Colorado air, the thinking being the other teams will really tire out near the end of games, giving them a distinct home court advantage other teams can’t match. I'm really impressed by second year player Kenneth Faried from Morehead State. He is averaging 17 points and 9 rebounds in those 2 home contests, while playing an average of 26 minutes per game.

I could really make a case to go against Miami tonight, but am making my play on the OVER, as that's where I see value today. It is currently settled in at 202, but I assume that will inflate as the day progresses.

NBA quick hitter: Dwayne Wade is 0-8 lifetime at Denver, even though he owns a shooting percentage over 50% in those contests.

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