Every season I have to access as
quickly as possible which teams are 'OVER' teams, and which aren't. The list
changes daily for me as I'm presented new information. The information includes
geeky stats like possessions per contest, pace factor, and of course offensive
and defensive efficiency. I also look at the team’s opponents though, which is
why I'm changing Brooklyn to an 'OVER' team and focusing on that total today.
Brooklyn has played two under games
against an Orlando team that has averaged only 77 points the last four
contests, partly because they are without 33 year old scorer Hedo Turkoglu. So
I'm going to throw them out, then doing an eyeball test on their depth chart I
think 'offense' first with players such as Gerald Wallace and Joe Johnson. After
tonight's game, some of their team statistics will indeed regress to the mean.
If the over is the play, you obviously next look at their opponent.
Cleveland is firmly planted on my 'OVER'
teams, and isn't getting off of the list anytime soon. There are only three NBA
teams worse in defensive efficiency, and only two that give up more per game.
Don't forget they can score in bunches as well. Kyrie Irving now being 100%
healthy and Rookie Dion Waiters scoring over 15 per contest in less than 30
minutes per game is the key. Their back court can take over a game, plain and
simple. They also get a ton of second opportunities with offensive rebounding,
mainly by center Anderson Varejao.
I thought this total would be right
at 200 or above for the game, and in early betting I see it settling in at 196
1/2, the play is most definitely the OVER, as not just a free play, but my
biggest personal NBA bet this year.
NBA quick hitters:
#1: Toronto travels to Indiana after
a demoralizing loss to Utah in triple overtime last night. Talk about tired
legs, now they have to face a very good defensive team in the Pacers. I am not
playing the UNDER however, because if this game is one sided like I think it
may be, you never know what's gonna happen to game pace in a blowout.
#2: Spurs at the Lakers will no
doubt be the marquee matchup tonight, how will the Lakers put all their off
court turmoil out of their minds and beat my personal pick for the new western
conference favorite? Looks like they're gonna catch a point and be a home dog,
I'll still go with road team as a slight lean.
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