ACC Conference Preview

By: Rich Douglas

The ACC is a conference that has a few very clearly top level teams, and a lot fo teams all floating around the muddled middle.  This is especially true in the Coastal conference after Virginia Tech had the wheels fall off of nearly a decade of double digit wins.  The Atlantic is really a two horse race of Clemson and Florida State.  But, all of these teams have a chance to get bowl bids with just a few breaks going their way. 

Atlantic Division Winner: Clemson

The Tigers hopes this season rest almost solely on the shoulders of QB Tahj Boyd.  The senior completed 67.2% of his passes with 36 TDs and just 13 Ints for better than 9 yards per attempt.  He’s also a factor in the running game after averaging 12 carries a game (14 if we include plays ending in sacks) and scored 10 times, averaging over 3 yards a carry in the red zone.  He’ll have to live up to that performance though without Deandre Hopkins, a player that averaged 11 yards a target (128 targets!), and the very underrated TE Brandon Ford; Ford posted a 75.5% catch rate and 9.1 yards per target.  TO offset that, hopefully will be a fully healthy Sammy Watkins who averaged 9.1 yards per target last year, and almost 15 yards a catch the year before when healthy.  Redshirt Freshman Germone Hopper will also likely see extended looks, as will former 4 star recruit Martavis Bryant (16 targets, 19.1 yards per target).  The running game though should help ease some of the pressure despite losing Andre Ellington.  Roderick McDowell averaged 5.5 yards per carry last season, and averaged 2.88 yards per carry in the redzone.  The offensive line should also be good, losing only 1 starter and featuring wealth of talented backups with 64 combined starts.  The defensive line is built the same way, losing only sack master Mallicah Goodman.  However the DT rotation will be strong, anchored especially by Grady Jarrett, who had 8.5 tackles for loss last year, with 2 sacks and 5 QB hurries.  DE Vic Beasley will likely see an increased role with the departure of Goodman after creating 8 sacks, and another 2 QB hurries.  The LB corps lost Jonathan Willard, a do it all WILL backer, but does return two Junior 5 star recruits (Stephone Anthony and Tony Steward).  The secondary is more patchwork though after losing both starting safeties and top corner Xavier Brewer.  However, Travis Blanks is a talented sophomore who had 7 passes defended last year, and CB Garry Peters had 8 with 1 Int. 

Clemson is built for years to come with the amount of talented depth they have.  However, this year with a favorable schedule (3 top 25 teams with two at home) and a down ACC should put them in the right spot to take the division crown.  The lines are both stout and the offense should remain explosive as long as Boyd stays healthy.  It also should help that they get the other contender at home this year. 

Florida State

The Noles will be turning over a large chunk of the assistant coaching staff this year, as well as moving from an established signal caller to a red shirt freshman in Jameis Winston.  Winston is a former 5 star recruit who so far has wowed just about everyone in Tallahassee in Spring practices.  It of course has brought just about every comparison to Johnny Manziel, but time will tell if that’s a valid comparison.  He will be tossing the ball to a solid group of receivers, lead by Rashad Green who posted a 76% catch rate and 9.9 yards per target.  Kenny Shaw is the more explosive player with 13 plays of 15 yards or more on his 33 receptions, and posts a good 71.7% catch rate.  The running game could be big again this year with both Devonta Freeman and James Wilder Jr. retuning.  The two evenly split carries last year, combining for 1295 yards and 19 TDs, with 40 runs of 10 yards or more.  Also to Winston’s benefit is an offensive line that has 94 combined starts, and is as deep as any in the country.  The defensive front will be starting over after sending its top 3 defensive ends to the NFL, and losing two more DTs from the rotation.  DTs Timmy Jernigan and Demonte MCallister had 13 TFL.  The rest of the unit though Is untested, but only 2 players were recruited as less than 4 stars.  It might be no issue though, since the LB corps is so strong.  MLB Christian Jones had 7 TFL amongst his 71.5 stops, with 3 passes defended and is easily a first round pick.  WILL backer Telvin Smith lead the unit with 9.5 TFL and 3 passes defended, and is easily another upper tier pick.  The secondary also returns most of its starters and depth.  FS Terrence Brooks had 2 Ints and 4 passes defended with 45 tackles, whole CB Lamarcus Joyner had 39 stops with an Int and 5 passes defended. 

NC State

The Wolfpack was able to snag up Dave Doeren from NIU to take over a program that has been middling the last several years.  He’ll make everyone wait until opening day though to know whether transfers Brandon Mitchell (8 career pass attempts) or Pete Thomas (61.7% completion rate, 7 TDs 8 Ints at CSU in 2011) will win the starting QB job.  Whoever wins the job will at least get an experienced if un-explosive backfield to support them.  Shadrach Thronton averaged 4.5 yards per carry last year, and scored 3 times.  Tony Creecy averaged just 3.7, but had 5 TDs.  The offensive line won’t be a lot of help either, after losing 4 starters from a year ago (over 120 combined starts).   The receiving corps isn’t much to look at either though, with top wide out Quintin Payton had just a 59.3% catch rate (but a solid 9.3 yards per target) and Bryan Underwood had just 53%.  If State is looking to cause waves, it’ll be with a veteran defensive front.  All 4 starters from a year ago return, including DT T.Y. MCGill who had 10.5 tackles  for loss with 5 sacks, and DE Darryl Cato-Bishop who posted 6.5 sacks and 10.5 TFL.  The LBs will lose Rickey Dowdy who was a playmaker, but they get back DJ Green who had 5 TFL in 2011, and 4 passes defended.  The secondary though is dangerously thin after graduating most of its starters and top depth, with only 2 corners with real experience returning (Dontae Johnson and Juston Burris), who did combine for 3 Ints and 14 passes defended.

Syracuse

The Orange will be in a year of transition on offense after losing a top QB, two top wideouts, two top offensive linemen and offensive minded head coach.  They likely won’t name a starting QB either until the season opener, although the battle really comes down to Oklahoma transfer Drew Allen and Terrel Hunt, who didn’t attempt a pass last year.  Hunt had a slight lead after spring ball, but that means nothing right now since neither one has attempted a meaningful pass at the collegiant level.  The starter will have #3 wideout from last year Jarrod West and TE Beckett Wales.  West caught 58.9% of passé thrown his way and averaged a solid 8.2 yards per target, while Wales posted a 68.6% catch rate and  11.11 yards per catch rate.  The running game will likely be the fixture of the offensive attack, with both Jeromoe Smith (1176 yards, 5.2 yards per carry) and Prince-Tyson Gulley (825 yards, 5.3 yards per carry, 9 TDs) both returning.  The defensive line will also be looking to do some reclamation after losing 3 of the top 5 players form a year ago.  DT Jay Bromley had 5.5 tackles for loss.  The LBs though are strong, with Dyshawn Davis and Marquis Spruill combined for 23 TFL with 3 passes defended, and 107.5 tackles last year.  While the secondary wasn’t great last year, but CB Keon Lyn defended 7 passes and picked off 3 more, while contributing against the run with 3 TFL.

BC

Last season Golden Eagles fans thought their team might be onto something despite early losses because of how close they played some quality opponents.  But as time wore on it became evident the offense just couldn’t keep up, ranking 111^th in the nation.  Boston College will return a few key parts of that offense in hopes they can be better with experience.  QB Chase Rettig returns for his senior campaign, in which he will try to improve on a 64.2% completion rate with just 17 Tds and 13 Ints.  He also couldn’t get the ball thrown away, taking a 6.6% sack rate.  Part of that performance though can be attributed to a receiving corps that struggled to hold onto the ball, with no returning wideout posting a 60% catch rate at the minimum.  Alex Amidon caught 53.8% of his passes, but did average 15.5 yards per catch.  Spiffy Evans had 51 targets, but was mostly sued to catch dump offs, with TE Brian Miller in line to see the targets that had gone to Chris Pantale.  Andre Williams will carry the load in the running game and was solid with a 4.5 yards per carry average, but couldn’t convert his third down opportunities, going just 3/18.  The offensive line could see a big turnaround if Matt Patchan (formerly of Florida) is able to bring some stability to the unit.  The defensive woes started with an inability to rush the passer, where they ranked 124^th (dead last) in adjusted sack rate.  They also only had 5 QB hurries, so they weren’t just a hair short either.  Kasim Edeball is the best of the bunch after posting 7.5 TFL with 1.5 sacks, and he did bat down 4 passes.  The LB corps didn’t add much there either, and weren’t great in the run game with just 11.5 TFL amongst the whole group.  Kevin Pierre Louis had 68 stops, with 4 for loss and 2 sacks and 3 passes defended.  Steele Divitto was somewhat dynamic, 6 passes defended and 2 forced fumbles.  If the pass rush can get anything going, the secondary could be excellent.  They return 7 of the top 8 players, including Sean Sylvia and Spenser Rositano to man the safety positions.  The pair combined for 4 Ints and 10 passes defended to go with 14% of the teams total tackles. 

Maryland

Maryland’s issues last year went much further than just some of the worst uniforms in college football.  The Terrapins last year faced more games lost to injury than almost any team in the nation.  CJ Brown will get a chance to start this year after missing almost all last season after tearing an ACL.  He will likely be a much better option than Perry Hills or Shawn Petty who got sacked on over 12.5% of their dropbacks, completed fewer than 55% of their passes, and threw 14 TDs to 9 Ints.  Brown will luckily have a pair of stellar wideouts to throw to in Stefon Diggs and New Mexico transfer Deon Long, both 5 star recruits.  Diggs had a 67.5% catch rate and Long a 63.5%.  Diggs posted a 15.7 yards per catch, and Long posted 17.1, an explosive duo.  They’ll need to be good, and to stay healthy since the running game will be missing top back Wes Brown after his suspension.  That means it’ll fall to Brandon Ross who had 85 carries last year and averaged 4.6 yards per carry.  The offensive line will be a question as well, replacing 3 starters from a year ago, but having 6 players with starting experience.  On the defensive side of the ball the Terps will be missing several key components from last year’s solid squad.  Both starting DEs Joe Vellano and AJ Francis who had 23 TFL graduated, leaving them a little thin.  Darius Kilgo does return to man the nose though after posting 5 TFL, and they get back DE Andre Monroe who in 2011 had 5 sacks.  The LB corps also lost top playmaker Darin Drakeford, an OLB that had 9.5 TFL to lead the group.  Cole Farrand will look to be the replacement playmaker and is a solid inside thumper who had 6 TFL and 3 passes defended with 3 forced fumbles last year.  The secondary does feature both of its top corners returning, Dexter McDougie and Jeremiah Johnson, who combined for 13 passes defended.

Wake Forest

The Demon Deacons offense fizzled in the last 2/3 of the season last year, averaging just 16.8 points per game.  Tanner Price will need to prove this season that he isn’t just a very average athletic QB after completing just 55.6% of his passes last year with 12 TDs and 7 Ints, and a very subpar 5.6 yards per attempt.  The running game likely won’t be much of a step up with Deandre Martin as the top RB returning, after averaging just 3.9 yards per carry.  Martin did convert just under 50% of his third down opportunities, and he will be pushed by red shirt freshman Dominique Gibson.  The best receiving option is Michael Campanaro, who leads the ACC in targets over the last several years.  He posted a 73.8% catch rate but isn’t a real explosive threat with just an 8.1 yards per catch average.  Someone else will have to step up and actually catch the ball with Sherman Ragland and Brandon Terry posting sub 45% catch rates each.  The offensive line at least has some experienced depth (50 combined starts) and is well sized.  Nikita Whitlock is one of the best defensive linemen despite his 250 pound frame playing NT, where he had 5.5 TFL and 3 sacks last year.  The line also returns both top DE in Zach Thompson and Kris Redding (11 TFL, 7.5 sacks combined, 3 forced fumbles combined).  Justin Jackson is an OLB to watch this year after he posted 8.5 TFL with 4 sacks last year amongst his 60.5 tackles, and 4 more QB hurries.  The secondary features a pair of possibly explosive corners in Kevin Johnson (3 Int, 15 passes defended, 2 forced fumbles) and Merrill Noel who defended 21 passes his freshman year, and had 3 last year in limited action. 

Coastal Conference Champion: Virginia Tech

The wheels came off on the Hokies’ offense last year.  Logan Thomas was pretty abysmal after a lot of offseason hype as a possible Heisman candidate and talk of being a first round pick in the NFL draft.  Well, a 51.3% completion rate and just 18 TDs to 16 Ints and 6.9 yards per attempt will send you back to school for another year.  Thomas should see a bit of a bounceback though after being just atrocious on 1^st downs last year, completing 49.1% of his passes for well under 5 yards per attempt, and posting 11 Ints.  He will be throwing to a whole new group of receivers after 70% of his targets from last year are now gone.  He will get back DJ Coles, who in Thomas’ breakout 2011 campaign caught 72% of his targets for 9.6 yards per target.  Demitri Knowles will provide a deep threat after catching just 19 passes his freshman year.  Thomas will also get back JC Coleman and Tony Gregory in the backfield to compliment his 4.6 yards per carry last year.  Coleman averaged 4.5 yards per carry and Gregory 4.7, as both showed some knack for getting yards in the open field with 22 carries of 10 yards or more combined.  The offensive line though is undergoing a bit of a revolution with several stalwarts leaving.  They do return 43 combined starts and several highly recruited freshmen.  If the offense can take even a couple steps forward, it should be a good year as the VT defensive line is as experienced as ever with the top 4 players combining for 92 career starts.  James Gayle and Derrick Hopkins combined for 21 TFL and 8.5 sacks, with fellow starters Luther Maddy and Tyrel Wilson adding another 8.5 sacks and 13.5 TFL.  The depth is good as well with 3 red shirt freshmen and 4 star recruit Wyatt Teller.  LB Jack Tyler was exciting, with 87 tackles, 13 of them for loss with 3 passes defended as well.  The departure of Alonzo Tweedy should give more opportunities to Sophomore Ronny Vandyke who had 19 tackles with 2 for loss last year.  The secondary is also a veteran group, with FS Derrick Bonner defending  10 passes and picking off one more.  Antone Exum looks like he will miss a few games after tearing his ACL in January, but is the best player in that group.

The defense returned to standard Beamer Ball levels in the second half last year, and the offense will rebound with the experience and the turnover of some ineffective receivers.

Miami

The ‘Canes have one of the more experienced teams in the conference, and it should show especially on offense.  Stephen Morris will try to improve on a solid season where he completed just under 60% of his passes, but had a 3:1 TD to Int ratio, and averaged over 7.5 yards per attempt.  His top 4 receivers all return, and one to watch is especially TE Clive Walford.  Walford lead the receiving corps with a 67.6% catch rate and averaged 12.2 yards per target.  Phillip Doresett posted a solid 8.3 yards per target, with a 57.4% catch rate.  The offensive line is very experienced now, with 93 combined starts between 6 players.  This all should mean some big running lanes for exciting sophomore Duke Johnson should get the lion’s share of the carries after averaging 6.8 yards per carry last year.  Duke did it with 24runs of 10 yards or more, 9 of them more than 20 yards.   He’s also a solid receiver out of the backfield, averaging 8.2 yards per catch.  The defensive line didn’t generate much pressure last year (114^th in the nation I adjusted sack rate).  That group should return almost in entirety, and adds a couple of solid transfers in David Gilbert (Wisconsin) and Justin Renfrow(Virginia).   Gilbert especially should start from day one after posting 9.5 TFL and 4 sacks, and gives good rotation with tackling machine DE Shayon Green(52.5 stops).  Denzel Perryman returns as the top LB, after a season where he had 54.5 tackles, 6 for loss with an Int and 2 passes defended.  The secondary has 3 top safeties returning, and CB Ladarius Gunter who had 6 passes defended and an Int to try to slow down opposing passers.

UNC

The Tar Heels defense last season had the wheels come off, moving from 23.5 points allowed in the first 8 to over 32 in the last 4.  It will be a question about whether or not the unit can rise above some of the departures and injuries it already faces.  DE Kareem Martin is a true playmaker, posting 15.5 tackles for loss (more than half of his stops) with 3 passes batted down.  The LB corps will likely be lead by Tommy Heffernan, a Junior who was not ranked as a recruit but last year posted 8.5 tackles for loss with 3 sacks and a pair of passes defended.  The secondary does return its top FS Tre Boston, a player that had 4 Ints and 6 passes defended last year.  The top corners are also back after picking off 5 passes and defending 18 as well.  Despite losing some top players, the defense should be able to hold its own still.  The offense will have to lean on Brynn Renner more this season, but he should be up for the challenge after completing 65.4% of his passes for 28 TDs and just 7 Ints.  HE was also excellent at not taking sacks with just a 2.5% sack rate.  He will return his sure handed top wideout Quinshad Davis as well, who caught 63.5% of his passes for 12.72 yards per catch.  He also will have Eric Ebron, a big play TE who averaged 15.6 yards per catch, but needs to improve his 53% catch rate.  The running game will certainly take a step back without Giovanni Bernard taking most of the touches, but AJ Blue is a competent runner who averaged 5.3 yards per carry and scored 9 times, and Romar Morris should provide a solid change of pace with his 5.6 yards per carry.

GT

Scouting the Jackets in this modern era is difficult, because they are so engrained with the flexbone offense.  The RBs are as deep as ever for Tech, with 4 players having taking at least 50 carries last year, and another two with at least 30.  Both David Sims and Zach Laskey scored 5 TDs last year, and gained over 1300 yards.  New starting QB Vad Lee averaged 6.3 yards per carry last year, and completed more big play passes than Tevin Washington.  The offensive line is an experienced group, and should improve in pass protection because of it.  The only real question for the offense is if there is a wideout capable of stretching defenses off the play action.  Robert Godhigh averaged 10.8 yards per target last year, and Darren Waller was at 10.1.  The defensive line is anchored by Jeremiah Attaochu, a converted OLB that posted 12 TFl for loss with 10 sacks last season.  The LB corps returns completely, including playmaking OLB Brandon Watts (8.5 TFL, 2 passes defended, 60.5 tackles) and MLB Jabari Hunt-Days, who had 65.5 tackles with 4.5 for loss and 4 passes defended.  CB Jemea Thomas leads the secondary after compiling 73.5 tackles, 4 Ints and 6 passes defended.

Pittsburgh

The Panthers will be turning over a new QB after years it seemed of Tino Sunseri holding down the gig.  Tom Savage was able to win the competition after transferring from Rutgers.  A former 4 star recruit, in his last action Savage completed 52% of his passes with 2 TDs and 3 Ints in very limited action.  Pitt will also be turning over most of its receiving corps, with just Devin Street returning with more than 16 targets last year.  Street though is an excellent target, who caught 72.3% of his passes for 9.7 yards per target.  The running game as well will be seeing a whole new set of players.  Isaac Bennett has the most carries with 29, so the group is basically a blank slate.  The defense returns its best player, DT Aaron Donald.  Donald had 18.5 TFL and 5.5 sacks last year with 53 tackles.  Next to him is Tyrone Ezell who had 7TFL.  The LB corps may or may not be very thin depending on Todd Thomas’ playing or not.  The Junior accounted for 7% of the teams tackles, and defended 5 passes.  The secondary does possess several players that will be aggressive and force turnovers, including SS Jason Hendricks who had 6 passes intercepted and 4 more defended.  CB Lafayette Pitts picked off a single pass but defended 9 more. 

Virginia

The Cavs offense continues to hold back the program, ranking 95^th in the nation in points per game.  They’ll be breaking in a new starter at QB this year, with sophomore David Watford winning the battle.  It likely means Kevin Parks will get more work this season after averaging 4.6 yards per carry and scoring 5 times.  Parks though could use some help after converting only 16% of his third down opportunities, and that will likely go to 5 star recruit Taquan Mizzell.  Watford will likely have a smoother transition, with a veteran group of receivers, starting with Dominique Terrell.  Terrell had a 64.9% catch rate and averaged 12.5 yards per catch.  Tim Smith is an explosive player who averaged over 20 yards per catch (but posted a 51.3% catch rate).  The offensive line is also experienced, with 81 combined starts.  The defensive front is going to be extremely thin after 6 players have moved on from the program.  DEs Jake Snyder and Eli Harold combined 55 tackles, 12.5 of them for loss and 12.5 sacks.  The LBs are also missing their top two players, leaving Daquan Romero as the top returning player with 29.5 tackles with 3.5 for loss.  The secondary is intact though, starting with CB Demetrius Nicholson who had 15 passes defended.

Duke

The Blue Devils will be trying to replicate and improve on the success they found last season.  Its going to be tough though after losing QB Sean Renfree to graduation.  In limited action last year his replacement, Anthony Boone, completed 51.6% of his passes for 5 TDs and just 2 Ints.  He’ll have a bit of work after losing wideout Conner Vernon, but he will get back the other half of Duke’s top receivers with Jamison Crowder.  Crowder posted a 65.5% catch rate, and a 9.3 yards per target mark, stemming from 21 catches of 15 yards or more.  He also gets back Brandon Braxton, who had a 60.6% catch rate in 2011.  The ground game should be a bit more stable with every player who had a carry returning for this year.  Jela Duncan and Josh Snead both averaged over 5 yards per carry, and should split time again.  The disastrously bad defense will return basically everyone in the front seven.  For the LBs, Kelby Brown will have high expectations after missing last year with a knee injury and in 2011 posting 7 tackles for loss.  Kenny Anunike had 6 tackles for loss with 5 sacks last year.  The secondary though is almost all new, except stalwart Ross Cockrell who had 5 Ints, 12 passes defended and 51.5 tackle last year as an all ACC player. 

Conference Champion: Clemson

The Tigers offense will likely be just too much for a VT offense that will be looking how to generate points, and if they can take a step forward from last year.