Tuesday, August 27, 2013

2013 MAC Preview


The MAC gained some serious chops this past season when Northern Illinois was able to crash the BCS, and Toledo could have had they beaten the Huskies at the end of the season.  The Conference also has taken some big steps to try and get that national attention by playing a lot of midweek games.  And that has brought the talent level up across the conference, with there being a several teams in each division that could take home the title. 

Western Division Winner: Northern Illinois
Jordan Lynch is the mid major Heisman sleeper again this year, by being a little bit of everything.  He completed 60.2% of his passes for 25 TDs and 6 Ints for 8 yards per attempt.  He ran the ball with power, averaging over 6 yards per carry and 3.76 inside the redzone, with 12 TDs.  He’s a solid physical specimen, so he can take that kind of physical punishment.  There should be though an expanded role though for Akeem Daniels who had just 68 carries last year.  However, a majority of his work came the last 3 games of the year, when he rushed for 286 yards.  He should also factor into the passing game again after picking up 259 yards on 20 catches with a 66.7% catch rate.  That will be good since gone now is Martel Moore, an NIU legend.  Tommylee Lewis is the top returning wideout after catching 70% of his passes for over 11 yards per catch.  It will be tough though to replicate those offensive numbers of a year ago if a few youngsters don’t step up.  It will help to keep things rolling that the entire offensive line returns from last year, and some of the depth has starting experience.  On the defensive front only Ken Bishop returns as a starter, after posting 42.5 tackles with 9.5 of them for loss and had a pair of sacks.  Joe Windsor is a pass rush specialist that could see his 7 sacks from last year balloon a bit with an increase in playing time.  Jamaal Bass returns to man the OLB spot, after posting 64 tackles with 6 TFL last year.  The secondary has depth after several injuries last year forced people into the lineup.  Luckily, senior Jimmie Ward returns from an 84.5 tackle campaign, in which he picked off 3 passes and defended 11.  CB Marlon Moore picked off 2 passes and defended 4 as the top returning corner.

NIU lost a lot of productive players from a year ago and a head coach that won 23 games in his 2 years with the program.  However, they return the key player in Jordan Lynch, and new head coach Rod Carey should continue the tradition.



Toledo
Terrance Owens will take full control as the starting QB this year after a pretty darn solid Junior campaign in which he completed 61.4% of his passes for 14 TDs with 8 Ints, and 7.7 yards per attempt.  He is also an accomplished runner, garnering nearly 6 yards per carry (before his 18 sacks taken drops it to 3.9).  The running game though belongs to the often underrated David Fluellen, who averaged 5.8 yards per carry last year.  Fluellen had 43 runs of 10 yards or more last year, and is also a pounder at the goalline with 3.36 yards per carry in the redzone.  The passing game will feature a host of talented veterans, starting with Bernard Reedy.  Reedy averaged 8.4 yards per target last year, getting targeted 133 times.  Second was Alonzo Russell who averaged 17.33 yards per catch and should be better in his sophomore campaign.  The offensive line is also one of the few in the conference that returns a majority of starters.  The defensive front features one of the more talented NTs in Elijah Jones, who last year had 7.5 tackles for loss and 2 forced fumbles.  It also returns DE Jayrone Elliott, who in limited time had 6 sacks.  For the LBS, its time for Vladimir Emilien to step up as the only 4 star recruit in the group after posting just 23.5 tackles last year.  Trent Voss was a factor with 36.5 tackles, 3.5 sacks and 5 passes defended.  The secondary is a big question mark now though with only CB Cheatham Norrils defending more than 2 passes last year (5, with 2 Ints). 

Ball State
Ball State returns a lot of key skill position players on offense, starting with the dynamic Jahwan Edwards.  Edwards rushed for 6.1 yards per carry and 14 TDs last year, with 39 runs of 10 yards or more.  He also converted 67% of his third and short opportunities for first downs.  QB Keith Wenning had an excellent year last season, completing 65.4% of his passes, with 24 TDs and just 10 Ints.  He also only took 11 sacks all season.  He gets back his top 5 receivers from a year ago, with Willie Snead heading the group.  Snead averaged 12.9 yards per catch, with a 64% catch rate and 9 TDs last year.  Also be on the lookout for KeVonn Mabon, a sophomore receiver who averaged nearly 15 yards per catch and had a 76.7% catch rate.  The only slow down to the offense could be the replacement of over 140 combined starts.  On defense, the top three linemen return, including Jonathan Newsome, a 236pound DE.  Newsonme played in just 11 games, but racked up 12.5 tackles for loss with 8.5 sacks.  Kenneth Lee is the only returning LB with any real experience, with 28 tackles and a pass defended last year.  The depth is scary thin though with just a few freshmen and JUCO Transfer Stephan Martin providing depth.  CB is set with a couple of solid players from a year ago in Eric Patterson (2 Ints, 9 passes defended, 53 tackles) and Jeffery Garrett (47.5 tackles, 6 passes defended.

Western Michigan
The Broncos last year were just 1-4 in games decided by a single possession, a number indicating their chance to move back up the MAC ranks in short order.  Tyler Van Tubbergen should be getting the start after filling in well for Alex Carder.  Tubbergen completed 58.5% of his passes for 13 TDs and just 10 Ints.  The receiving corps returns the top two targets from last year in Jaime Wilson and Josh Schaffer who averaged 7.5 and 7.8 yards per target.  It will also look to Justin Collins, who had 8.9 yards per target average and a 60% catch rate.  The backfield is also loaded with seniors, with Dareyon Chance leading the group after his 176 carry effort for 947 yards last year.  He scored 4 times, and averaged 5.4 yards per carry.  Antoin Scriven provides a bruiser back after scoring 7 TDs last year.  The offensive line though will be new, returning just 31 starts.  The defensive line is also rebuilding, with only Travonte Boles at NG logging significant time, with 39.6 tackles, 9.5 of them for loss.  The LB corps will make up for that though with the top four players all returning from a year ago.  Desmond Bozeman and Terry Easmon combined for 12.5 TFL and 7 sacks amongst their 112 tackles.  CB Donald Celiscar had 65.5 tackles last year, with 2 Ints and 14 passes defended with a forced fumble as the only real playmaker. 

Central Michigan
The Chippewas last year followed a 4 game losing streak by splitting two games, then winning 4 straight including their bowl appearance.  The QB position like many others in the MAC sees a stalwart leaving and an inexperienced backup getting their chance.  Cody Kater is that man for CMU, having attempted just 4 passes last year.  He will have some outstanding weapons to help him make that transition.  First is Titus Davis, a wideout that averaged 20 yards per catch with 8 TDs.  Andrew Flory had the most reliable hands with a 68% catch rate.  RB Zurlon Tipton averaged nearly 6 yards per carry and had nearly 1500 yards with 19 TDs last year.  The offensive line though will be a question, with just 35 total starts returning amongst the group, and the depth being mostly freshman.  NG Leterrius Walton had 21 tackles last year with 2.5 sacks as the only experienced starter returning.  Luckily the LBs are completely intact, with Shamari Benton and his 90 tackles and 3 passes defended on the strong side.   FS Avery Cunningham had 65 tackles with 6 of them for loss with 2 passes picked off and 4 defended.  CB Jason Wilson picked off 2 passes and defended 7. 

Eastern Michigan
EMU will likely start the season with Tyler Benz under center.  Last season he was able to play steadily with a few big plays.  He completed jus 54% of is passes, and had 14 TDs to 8 Ints, but averaged 7.1 yards per attempt.  He was also a solid runner, averaging 4.9 yards per carry on 49 attempts   He will have to continue to hold off Brogan Roback, a 4 star recruit and likely the biggest draw EMU has ever scored.  The top running back from a year ago returns, an explosive 208 pounder Bronson Hill.  Hill averaged 6.5 yards per carry, and scored 6 times with 8 runs of 20 yards or more.  The receiving corps returns a chunk of its targets, but only Demarius Reed posted a catch rate above 47%.  On defense, the Eagles could not rush the passer at all, ranking 123rd in adjusted sack rate.  DE Kalonji Kashama had 3 sacks last year, and 4 tackles for loss.  The LBing corps will be very thin, only Hunter Matt posting more than 10 tackles last year (and he only had 16.5).  The secondary will benefit from some JUCO transfers and 3 star recruit Jaleel Canty joining the group.

East Division Winner: Ohio
The Bobcats return two of the program’s more iconic players to lead an offense that ranked 47th overall last year.  Tyler Tettleton was hobbled through much of the year with an oblique injury.  He still however was able to compelte 62.1% of his passes for 7.7 yards per attempt and 18 TDs with just 4 Ints.  He also had over 500 rushing yards before sacks took him down to just below 250.  The other iconic player is RB Beau Blankenship, who rushed for 1600 yards with 15 TDs and 5.1 yards per carry.  Blankenship converted just about half of his third down opportunities, going 11/18 on third and short.  The receivers though will be a little different this year as about a third of last years targets have now moved on.  Donte Foster returns with his 71.11% catch rate and 7.9 yards per target, and it should mean Chase Cochran (63% catch rate, 17.1 yards per catch) should get more opportunities.  The offensive line will be slightly less experienced after losing Eric Herman and Skyler Allen, two All MAC players.  The defense though will be undergoing a major facelift after 4 of the top 6 linemen and 2 of the top 3 backers depart.  Ty Branze is the best pass rusher on the line remaining, a 6’2 defensive end who had 4.5 tackles for loss with 3 sacks last season.  The recruiting class though was strong with 8 of their 22 players being linemen, so guys like Tarell Basham could see reps early on.  Keith Moore was the leading tackler last year, with 72 stops with 5.5 for loss and he contributed in the passing game with 2 Ints, 2 passes defended and a pair of sacks.  After various injuries last year, the secondary now is extremely deep.  Larenzo Fisher had 45 tackles and 8 passes defended, and Nat Carpenter picked of a pair of passes.  The unit also gets back Travis Carrie who in 2011 had 4 Ints and 13 passes defended.

The Bobcats should be able to handle the teams in the East pretty easily, and play a patented mid-week MAC thriller against Kent State for the likely rights to play NIU in the championship. 

Kent State
The Golden Flashes have some of the most explosive offensive players in the MAC, and that’s saying something.  Dri Archer had 159 carries last year.  He averaged 9 yards each time he took one, going for more than 10 on 41 of them, and 18 were more than 20 yards.  He also averaged 8.5 yards per target in the passing game to go with a 59% catch rate.  Archer’s success overshadows the fantastic job Trayion Durham did taking 276 carries for 4.8 yards per shot, but the two form an excellent pair.  The passing game should be able to improve if David Fisher can just complete more passes than Spencer Keith did.  Fisher played sparingly last year, attempting just 23 passes but he did complete 61% of them, and averaged 10 yards a shot.  His top wideout will likely be Chris Humphrey, a junior who had a 60.5% completion rate with 7.4 yards per target.  The fly in the ointment to the offense could be an offensive line that loses over 100 combined starts, and is not very deep.  The defensive line features one of the more intriguing prospects in 245 pound DT.  Nix had 15 tackles for loss last year with 3 forced fumbles and 6 sacks.  He also had 4 QB hurries.  The DE to watch on the roster is Mark Fackler, who had 5 TFL last year, but lead the team with 5 QB hurries.  The LBs will be a big question mark, since Luke Batton graduated and took 14% of the teams tackles with him.  Noone else on the team had more than 14 that returns.  The secondary though does return Luke Wollet who had 92.5 tackles, and picked off 4 passes while defended 4.  Darius Polk is the top CB, with 2 Ints and 9 passes defended. 

Bowling Green
For Bowling Green to take the next step and move into the elite category of the MAC< Matt Schilz is going to need to be much more efficient.  He completed just 55% of his passes for just 6.3 yards per attempt.  It could be though that he will see an upswing with the return of his top 4 receivers from a year ago.  The top two though had sub 55% catch rates, as Chris Gallon and Shaun Joplin struggled at times with drops.  TE Alex Bayer is a solid threat after posting a 63.2% catch rate with 7.2 yards per target.  The running game is a question mark, with Anthon Samuel transferring to FIU to be closer to his wife and children.  These leaves Jamel Martin and Andre Givens who on 59 combined carries picked ip 339 yards.  The defensive unit was stellar last year, both being able to pressure the QB and stop the run.  It will be tough to replicate without Chris Jones and his 19 TFL from the DT position, but the line is deep.  Ted Ouellet was next on the list with 6 TFL amongst his 27, with 3 sacks.  LB Gabe Martin returns with his 55 tackles (8.5 for loss with 4.5 sacks) and is a difference maker in the passing game with an Int and 5 passes defended.  The secondary is experienced as well, with Cameron Truss leading the corners after disrupting 5 passes last year and making 56.5 tackles.

Buffalo
The Bulls last year had one of the most efficient defenses in the country, thanks in large part to one of the most talented mid major defenders in the country.  For the second year in a row, OLB Khalil Mack had at least 20 TFL.  He made 73 stops, 21 of the behind the line of scrimmage and 8 of the as sacks.  He also defended 2 passes and forced 4 fumbles.  The top two inside backers also return in Lee Skinner and Jake Stockman, combining for 105.5 tackles with 12.5 for loss.  The secondary returns a pair of playmakers in Cortney Lester and Najja Johnson who had 9 Ints last year with 12 passes defended and over 60 tackles.  The defensive line could be more of a question mark with only DE Colby Way returning from the starters last year, having posted 43 tackles with 10.5 for loss and 7 sacks.  The offense could be a limiting factor keeping the Bulls from surprising some folks this season.  Alex Zordich was named the starter, but has never been an accurate passer.  He completed just 51% of his passes last year with 9 TDs and 7 Int with a 5% sack rate.  He does get back his receiving corps intact, which may or may not be a good thing.  Top target Alex Neutz is a big play threat but managed just a 55.1% catch rate.  Likely though it will fall to the running game, where Branden Oliver (5.5 yards per carry. 821 yards) and Devin Campbell (4.4 yards per carry, 502 yards) will be leaned on to provide the scoring. 

Miami (Ohio)
The Redhawks will be breaking in a new QB this year after stalwart Zac Dysert left for the NFL this April.  Asutin Boucher will take over, who at one point was able to upset NIU in the MAC title game.  His top target will be Nick Hawell, a 6’1 senior that has a 61.8% catch rate for 12.9 yards per catch last season.  Boucher will also be tossing it to the explosive Dawan Scott, who had a 66.3% catch rate and 15 yards per catch.  The running game though will likely not be a strength, with no back on the roster averaging over 4 yards oer carry last year.  Jamire Westbrook is the best of the bunch currently, with a 3.9 yards per carry average and 361 yards.  The defensive line does return 3 of its top 5 players from a year ago, including Mwanza Wamulumba who had 29 tackles with 5 TFL and 2.5 sacks.  The LBs are the real playmakers of the defense though, with Chris Wade and Wes Williams combining for 14 tackles for loss.  Strong Safety Brison Burris had 61.5 tackles last year with 3 sacks and 5 passes defended.

Akron
The Zips have a lot of work to do if they want to climb from the basement of the MAC.  It starts with sophomore Kyle Pohl taking over as the signal caller.  He completed 65.5% of his passes and had 5 TDs with just 2 Ints last year in limited game action with a 6.3 yards per attempt mark.  The receivers are not very explosive, with only Keith Sconeirs and Jerrod Dillard posting better than 7 yards per target.  Both players though are sure handed with better than 60% catch rates, so they should be able to provide consistent weapons for Pohl.  RB Jawon Chisholm averaged 5.3 yards per carry last year and nearly had 1000 yards.  On defense, Albert Presley is a very intriguing DE weighing in at only 226 pounds.  He did have 8 TFL and 2 sacks though.  NG Cody Grice had 7.5 TFL amongst his 36 stops.  The LBs are a bit thinner with just Justin March the leading returning tackler with 48.5 stops.  CB Malachi Freeman defended 7 passes last year.

UMass
Mike Wegzyn will start the season fro the Minutemen,  a season after he completed 53.6% of his passes with just 6 TDs and 10 Ints.  He is a danger as a runner, averaging 4.4 yards per carry on 68 attempts.  The team will return a TE as its top receiving option in Rob Blanchflower.  The Senior caught 61.4% of his passes last year for 6.6 yards per target.  The team will also have the services of Ricardo Miller, a Michigan transfer who was recruited as a 3 star player.  The defense will feature one starting holdover from a year ago, DE Stanley Andre who had 4 TFL and 1 sack.  Kassan Messiah is the top OLB with 3 TFL and 1 sack amongst his 43.5 tackles.  CB Randall Jette is the most talented playmaker in the secondary, with 2 Ints and 4 passes defended last year. 

Conference Winner: NIU
The Huskies should be good enough for one more year to handle Ohio, but this could be one of the more exciting championship games we’ll get this season. 



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