SEC Preview

by Richard Douglas

The SEC will likely continue its reign as the premier conference in college football, with a top to bottom set of teams that could give almost anyone in the nation a run.  The power teams should be able to maintain their perch at the top, but the mid level teams like Mizzou, Vandy and Ole Miss are knocking on the door to possibly upset the balance of power.

Eastern Division Winner: Georgia

The Bulldogs came one play away from completing a comeback that folks would have been playing on NCAA games for years.  Instead, they had to settle for whacking Nebraska in a bowl game and hoping to be in position to make another run this year.  It’ll be with possibly the best offense in the country, featuring another potential top QB in the NFL draft in Aaron Murray.  Murray averaged 10.1 yards per completion, completed 64.5% of his passes and had 36 TDs to only 10 Ints.  The only downside to his game is a propensity to take sacks, getting whacked 6.3% of the time.  He will have to try and repeat that performance without his ridiculously explosive top target Tavarres King.  He will though have a lot to work with, with Malcolm Mitchell, Arthur Lynch, Michael Bennet and Chris Conley all posting better than 60% catch rates and double digit yards per target (76.9, 70.6, 70.6, 62.5 and 11, 12.7, 10.1, 10.7 respectively).  The offensive line returns entirely intact as well, with over 100 combined starts.  That experience together should benefit the run game again, which features two of the best backs in the country in Todd Gurley and Keith Marshall.  Gurley averaged 6.2 yards per carry and scored 17 times, while Marshall picked up 6.5 and scored 8 times.  The pair combined for 66 runs of 10 yards or more, with 22 of them going for more than 20.  How the amount of 4 star recruits that fills the front seven depth chart are able to fill in for the ultra talented group that graduated.  The aforementioned group has 8 four star recruits that didn’t record any plays for the Dawgs last year, but will get back its top DE in Garrison Smith (42 tackles, 2 TFL, 1 sack), and Amarlo Herrera at the LB position (51.5 tackles, 3 TFL, 1 Int, 2 passes defended.)  The secondary is in the same boat, with a lot of highly touted youth and one top returning player in Damian Swann (43.5 tackles, 3.5 TFL, 2 sacks, 4 Ints, 5 passes defended).

 

Georgia has to come out of the gate strong.  They play Clemson, South Carolina, and LSU all in the first month.  After that though, the schedule should roll out in front of them with a big game against Florida to start November.  The Dawgs can run the table again in the East if they get 3 wins in September due to that young defense coming out strong to begin, because the offense is strong enough to beat even the most hardened SEC defenses. 

Florida

The Gators biggest question mark on offense is whether or not Jeff Driskel can avoid getting walloped repeatedly this year, and how much more efficient it could make him.  Driskel got sacked on 12.8% of his dropbacks, and that dropped his yards per attempt to just 6.7.  He only threw 12 TDs to 7 Ints, but his play style was more run first anyways, with 694 rushing yards and 8.5 yards per rush average. The passing game might struggle regardless, with only Quinton Dunbar returning as a viable playmaker with his 76.6% catch rate and 8.1 yards per target.  There is some potential with three 4 star freshman recruits though for someone to step up to provide Driskel a legit target.  The run game outside of Driskel will also be a question mark, with Matt Jones who had 52 carries being the top returning RB.  Jones did play efficiently with a 5.3 yards per carry average, and there is again hope with freshman Klevin Taylor to pick up some of the slack.  The defense loses Shariff Floyd from a front that was just dominating against the run, but most of the talent is still there with Dominique Easley, Dante Fowler and Jonathan Bullard combining for 21.5 tackles for loss.  The LB corps will also return a majority of its starters, with MLB Anontio Morrison leading the group with his 30.5 tackles.  The Pass rush can also get a boost from the return of Ronald Powell, who in 2011 had 6 sacks and 9 TFL.  The secondary did lose its top 2 safeties, but Loucheiz Purifoy and Marcus Roberson form one of the best tandems in the nation, with 17 passes defended and 65 tackles between them. 

South Carolina

The Gamecocks this year have a single player that everyone will associate with their success or failure.  Jadeveon Clowney last year was a one man wrecking crew.  13 sacks, 3 forced fumbles, 23.5 tackles for loss and one near decapitation put him on the map as one of the best possible college players in the last decade.  He might have to be that again this year if SC wants to be in the talk for a Title.  The defensive line lost half of its top 6 players, and lost all 5 of its top linebackers.  The line should be able to recover with Kelcy Quaries and Chaz Sutton (15 TFL for loss, 8.5 sacks, 53.5 tackles)  returning next to Clowney, and some solid youngsters looking for game action.  The LBs though are a huge question mark, with only 42 combined game appearances on the rest of the roster.  The secondary did lose a playmaker in DJ Swearinger, but they return most of the unit, including Senior CB Jimmy Legree who had 3 Ints and 6 passes defended last year.  The offense has questions as well, but is possibly better poised to answer them.  Connor Shaw is the starter while healthy, and is pretty solid.  He completed 67.5% of his passes for 8.6 yards per attempt, and 17 TDs and 7 Ints.  Shaw though does not stay healthy, and in large part it’s because he takes too many sacks (9.9%).  Backup Dylan Thompson was more erratic, completing only 52% of his passes, but he provides a good safety net for when Shaw goes down eventually.  The receivers the two will throw to are going to be very different from last year.  Bruce Ellingotn is the top returning wideout, catching 70.2% of his passes for 10.5 yards per target.  The running game will also be a question mark, with most of the work expected to go to the returning Brandon Wilds (2011: 4.5 yards per carry, 3 TDs) and sophomore Mike Davis, who averaged 5.3 yards per pop last year, and had 5 runs of 20 or more yards. 

Missouri

The Tigers second year in the SEC could see a big bounce back to what had made them a power in the Big 12.  QB James Franklin will likely post better numbers than he had last season dealing with various injuries.  He completed just 59% of his passes for 10 TDs, 7 Ints and took sacks ate a 7.9% clip.  The year before he had a 63% completion rate, with 21 TDs and just 11 Ints.  He will also be getting back one of the most explosive weapons the Tigers have had the past several years in RB Henry Josey.  Josey missed all of last season to rehab his knee after a disturbing injury in 2011, when he averaged 8.1 yards per carry and scored 9 times.  The Tigers receivers should also get a boost with more consistency from the QB position, after three of the top four returning receivers posted sub 60% catch rates.  Dorial Green-Beckham is the most touted of the group, and had the best catch rate (62.8%) and a solid 9 yards per target last season.  If Marcus Lucas can fix his drops (56% catch rate) the Tigers offense could be in line for a large upswing.  The defense will be interesting to watch, as the team’s leading tacklers SLB Andrew Wilson (61.5 tackles, 4 passes defended, 4 forced fumbles) and CB EJ Gaines (66 tackles, 7 TFL, 1 Int, 11 passes defended) both return and have the experience to mitigate the losses of some other players.  The defensive line also has a pair of intriguing DEs in Kony Ealy (10 TFL, 3.5 sacks, 7 batted passes) and Michael Sam (7 TFL, 4.5 sacks). 

Vanderbilt

The Commodores are one of the most senior laden teams in the SEC, and could be in for a big year if a few things break their way.  They will be breaking in a new QB, but Austyn Carta-Samuels has experience after a very promising start to his career at Wyoming (6.3 yards per attempt, 60% completion rate, 19TDs and 13 Ints) before transferring from the program.  The offensive line protecting him should be solid despite needing to replace two starters, retuning 75 combined starts.  The running game will need that experience after losing one of the most underrated backs in the country to the NFL (Zac Stacy).  The top two returning players are Wesley Tate, who averaged just 3.5 yards per carry , which is lowered somewhat by his usage as a redzone back (30% of his carries came inside the opponents 20, where he averaged a very respectable 2.88 yards per carry) and as a short yardage back (10/13 converting third and short).  Brian Kimbrow though could be a potential breakout star, after averaging 6.3 yards per carry and keeping that average throughout the game.  The true strength of the offense was thought to lay with the wide receivers, but one of the two super stars is facing some serious legal issues.  Chris Boyd will likely miss the season after being indicted for his role in an alleged rape.  That leaves Jordan Matthews a 6’3 205 pound specimen.  Matthews caught 67.6% of his targeted passes for 9.5 yards per target, including 34 catches of 15 yards or more.  The receivers after that are pretty thin, with a pair of 4 star freshmen in Jordan Cunningham and Mitchell Parsons expected to play a large role.  The defensive line will take a hit as well, with three of the top four players moving on.  DE Walker May had 33 tackles, 10.5 of them for loss, and Kyle Woestmann had 6 sacks in a reserve role.  The backers behind them though are experienced and make plays, with Chase Garnham and Karl Butler combined for 24 TFL last year, including 9 sacks and 106 tackles.  Two four star freshman will try to snag the remaining spot.  The secondary also returns both starting safeties, and all star caliber corner Andre Hal who defended 14 passes, had 42 tackles, and 2 Ints.

Tennessee

Another former powerhouse looking for redemption with a new coach, the Vols will field a team with a lot of untapped potential on defense and some big questions about playmakers on offense.  The defensive line last year featured 5 players that had been 4 star recruits, but managed to rank 116^th in adjusted sack rate and 53^rd in opponent success rate, and gone now is the leader in sacks.  It will be an all senior group though, where  DT Daniel McCullers is a stuffer with 5.5 tackles for loss, and DE Jacques Smith had 2 sacks, but 8 QB hurries last year.  And the line is backed up by one of the best MLBs in the nation, AJ Johnson.  Johnson had 100.5 tackles, 8.5 for loss with 8 QB hurries showing off his blitzing capability.  The secondary is again studded with 4 star recruits, and will bring back it top 3 players from last year (Safeties Byron Moore and LaDarrel McNeil, CB Justin Coleman) who combined for roughly a quarter of all the Vols’ tackles, and had 5 Ints with 8 passes defended.  On offense, the changing of the guard starts with junior signal caller Justin Worley.  Worley saw limited action last season, but did manage to get intercepted twice in 23 attempts.  Redshirt freshman Nathan Peterman will be looking to overtake him as the season goes on, and is 4 star recruit as well.  Worley likely won’t be helped by having to break in an entirely new set of receivers, with Alton Howard being the most targeted returning player, with just 23 all of last season.  This vacuum leaves open spots for the youngsters Drae Bowles, and Justin Meredith who redshirted, and new faces Marquez North and Paul Harris.  The running game also lost half of its tandem from last year when Marlin Lane Jr. was suspended indefinitely in April.  This leaves Rajion Neal, who was solid with 4.5 yards per carry and 5 TDs, but is not spectacular.  If Lane does return at some point this season, he brings a little more explosion with his 15 runs of 10 yards or more.  The best thing though for this inexperienced group is that their offensive line has 124 combined starts, and had one of the best sack rates in the nation last year. 

Kentucky

The Wildcats are currently the only SEC team without a starting QB named, with three players that all took snaps last year.  The one that faired the best was Maxwell Smith, who completed 68.7% of his passes with 8 TDs and just 4 Ints, but the Spring games best performer was Jalen Whitlow, who posted a 54% completion rate and an 8.5% sack rate.  The receivers weren’t much better either, with Demarco Robinson being the top returning player and having a catch rate of just 57.1% for 6.1 yards per target.  The running game will be the Cats best chance of finding offensive success this year, after Raymond Sanders III was able to pick up 5.4 yards per carry, with a better average in the first half of games when Kentucky was still in them.  Jonathan George was also a steady player as a short yardage back, gaining 4.7 yards per carry.  The offensive line though will return only 3 players with starting experience, and no player who was recruited above 3 stars.  Their mirrors on defense though show more upside, with JUCO transfer ZaDarius Smith, who had 6.5 sacks and 46 tackles at East Mississippi CC last year.  Jason Hatcher is a 4 star freshman, and the line does return DT Donte Rumph, who led the line with 4 sacks and 6 tackles for loss.  The LB corps is experienced and talented, returning every player from a year ago including Alvin Dupree, a 254 pound WILL backer that had 12.5 tackles for loss, 6.5 sacks and a pass defended.  Avery Williamson is also an above average cover linebacker with 4 passes defended.  The secondary is a bit thin, but watch for Cody Quinn who defended 5 passes last year, and JD Harmon who had 4 defended and 2 interceptions. 

Western Division winner:  Alabama

The Tide should be the best team in the country this next year,  after having the best defense in the nation again last year, and an offense that ranked 13^th.  AJ McCarron returns to lead the Tide offense after one of the most efficient seasons in memory, with 30 TSs to just 3 Ints, 67.2% completion rate, and over 8 yards per attempt.  AJ should be able to improve on that performance, with all 3 of his top receivers from a year ago returning.  The freshman phenom Amari Cooper averaged 13.1 yards per target, and an amazing 76.3% catch rate, falling just 1 yard short of 1000.  Kevin Norwood and Christian Jones hauled in 56 passed combined, and both posted over 67% catch rates.  The running game does lose Eddie Lacy to the NFL, but Sophomore TJ Yeldon split carries and averaged 6.3 yards per carry and found the endzone 12 times.  Fellow sophomore Kenyan Drake is also intriguing after averaging 6.7 yards per carry.  The only fly in the ointment could be the lack of experience up front, with 126 combined starts leaving to the NFL.  The depth is talented though, with every player being at least a 3 star recruit.  On defense, it will be tough to repeat the #1 overall ranking again.  The defensive front did lose 4 of its top 7 players.  They do get back Ed Stinson, a DE that had 3 sacks and 8.5 TFL.  Again, the depth is all star caliber recruits, so at least one of them should step up.  The LB corps did also lose Nico Johnson, but CJ Mosely and Trey Depriest are back.  Moseley had 86.5 tackles, 8 of them for loss with 4 sacks, 2 Ints and 2 passes defended.  The secondary is a bit of a concern for the Tide as well, after losing stalwarts Dee Milliner and Robert Lester.  Deion Belue should be the top CB this year, after defending 7 passes last year and picking off a pair of passes.  The safety tandem will feature Ha-Ha Clinton-Dix (lead the team with 5 Ints) and Vinnie Sunseri, who had 6 TFL with his 2 Ints and 3 passes defended. 

Not much needs to be written about the Tide.  They’re experienced again, and despite playing in the best conference top to bottom, they should be in the National Title conversation yet again, and AJ McCarron might be able to shed that overrated tag with a big season. 

LSU

The Bayou Bengals last year went 10-3, thanks in large part to a sterling effort from the defense we expect these things from.  The offense was the limiting factor, and it will be interesting to see if that can change this next year.  Zach Mettenberger was fairly unimpressive for such a highly touted player, tossing just 12 TDs to 7 Ints, with a 58.8% completion rate.  He did however have flashes off greatness, like the near upset of Alabama, and the next week against Miss. State where he had 3 TDs, over 550 yards and a 60% completion rate.  He will also have a rapport with his receivers as all 3 top pass catchers return.  Jarvis Landry was the most consistent of the group posting a 64.4% catch rate, and just over 10 yards per catch.  Odell Beckham was the most explosive, averaging over 16 yards per catch and having a solid 59.7% catch rate.  James Wright might be able to overtake Kadron Boone, after posting better catch rates (60-50) and yards per target (8.1-6.7).  The rest of the bunch isn’t very experienced, but almost every pass catcher had a 4 star grade as a recruit.  The running game though is where LSU will likely continue to find their most efficient gains on offense, with the return of Jeremy Hill, Kenny Hilliard and Alfred Blue.  Hill will miss some time with suspension, but he averaged over 5 yards per carry last year and found the end zone 12 times.  Hilliard was a chain mover, picking up first downs on a quarter of his carries.  The only limiting factor for the backs might be the loss of three experienced starters, but the group up front is experienced and the depth is again high caliber.  The defense loses almost all of what was one of the most talented units in the country, especially against the run.  Only DT Anthony Johnson will return with more than 10 tackles from last year (20.5, 10 TFL, 3 sacks).  The unit though is deep, and it could mean an extended look for Freshman Frank Herron, a 5 star recruit.  The LB corps is largely intact, and Lamin Barrow returns with 78 tackles, 7.5 for loss and had 5 passes defended last year.  The secondary will also present opportunities for players to step up and shine, like CB Jalen Mills who had 2 Ints and 5 passes defended to go with his 47.5 tackles (second most in the secondary). 

Ole Miss

The Rebels have the most experienced team in the SEC returning, a combined 336 starts on both sides of the ball.  This, coupled with one of the best recruiting classes in recent memory, should have them threatening several of the SEC powers they face this year.  The offense will again be dependent on Bo Wallace under center, after he completed 64% of his passes for 22 TDs and averaged 8.1 yards per attempt.  He also though threw 17 Ints, 7 of them the last three games, and was sacked on over 7% of his dropbacks.  In part, that’s because of his scrambler/running abilities, where he scored 8 times and averaged 5 yards per carry.  His receiving corps is experienced, with his top 4 targets all returning from a year ago.  Donte Mcrief is the most talented of the bunch, posting a 64.7% catch rate and averaging 14.8 yards per catch with 10 TDs last season.  Vince Sanders and Ja-Mes Logan both posted catch rates above 70%, and yards per target of at least 8.5.  They also have a 5 star recruit Laquon Treadwell who could instantly come in and create a spark.  Jeff Scott will start the year as the top RB after averaging 4.3 yards per carry last season, but will have to fend off I’Tavius Mathers, a sophomore who had 6 of his 27 carries for for 10 yards or more.  The offensive line loses just one starter, and the top 6 remaining players have at least 6 starts in their careers.  The defensive line looks to build on an excellent year last season after ranking 26^th in adjusted sack rate, lead by DE CJ Johnson.  Johnson had 41.5 tackles, with 6.5 sacks.  NT Issac Gross had 7.5 tackles for loss in the run game, and another 2.5 sacks.  To replace some other losses, they’ll have the top recruit in the nation, and JUCO transfer Lavon Hooks had 21 tackles for loss at NE Mississippi.  Denzel Nkemdiche will return as the top LB, after posting 13 tackles for loss, 3 Ints, 5 passes defended and causing 4 fumbles.  The secondary will return almost completely intact after picking off 15 passes and defending 31 more. 

Texas A&M

Texas A&M’s chances of unseating ‘Bama or LSU atop the western division all holds on whether or not Johnny Manziel will avoid a lengthy suspension.  The exciting freshman completed 68% of his passes and had 26 TDs with just 9 Ints.  He also was the team’s leading rusher, picking up 1310 yards and scoring 21 times.  However, his off field decision making might make all that mute if the NCAA does come down hard on Manziel like it did against Dez Bryant (missed the entire 2009 season).  It will also be nearly impossible for this team to beat Alabama the third week of the season without Manziel, which would likely sink any title hopes despite a favorable SEC East schedule.  It’s tough to envision how the A&M offense would manage without him, but there is still talent in the group.  RB Ben Malena averaged 5.8 yards per carry and scored 8 times, while 5 star recruit Trey Williams provided 5.7 yards per carry for his 59 touches, and score 5 times.  The receiving corps thins out, but top playmaker Mike Evans is back after posting a 67.8% catch rate and 1105 yards.  The offensive line does lose Luke Joeckel and Patrick Lewis, but Jake Mathews will swing from the right side and was a 1^st ALL SEC player.  The line doesn’t generate much pressure on defense, and the team doesn’t have an answer with any experience at DT after losing Spencer Nealy and Jonathan Mathis.  At LB Steven Jenkins is the top returning player with 57 tackles from last year, with 5.5 of them for loss.  The LBs are where the Aggies produced their pass rush, and no one looks to be able to step up like Damontre Moore did last season.  Deshazor Everett is the best corner on the roster after picking off 2 passes and defending 7 more last year. 

Arkansas

The Razorbacks were able to take at least one positive from their extreme fall from grace last year.  They were able to lure in Bret Bielema from Wisconsin to try and turn things around.  The presumptive starter at QB will be sophomore Brandon Allen, a former 4 star recruit who will look to improve on a season where he completed just 42.9% of his passes with 1 TD, 3 Ints and a 7.5% sack rate.  It’s also going to be tough to replace 57% of the targets from last year, with only Mekale Mckay and Javontee Herndon being targeted more than 30 times.  Mckay averaged 8.1 yards per target, but needs more consistent hands with just a 54% catch rate.  Herndon should get more looks after averaging 9.5 yards per target, and a catch arte of 66%.  The running game should take a step up with the former Badgers coach arrival, but the relative lack of experience on the line (outside of Travis Swanson, the remaining players have just 22 games of experience).  RB Jonathan Williams is a solid player who averaged 5.1 yards per carry and the backfield also gets back Kody Walker who scored 5 TDs as a freshman in 2011.  The defensive front four is actually a pretty solid group, starting with DE Chris Smith.  Smith had 9.5 sacks and 13 tackles for loss with 2 more QB hurries.  Also returning are DE Trey Flowers and DT Bryan Jones, who had 18 TFL and 7.5 sacks between them.  The LB corps was not so lucky, with just 2 of the top 7 LBs retuning.  AJ Turner is just 208 pounds, but did have 3.5 of his 35.5 tackles go for loss.  The secondary does return nearly everyone, including top safety Rohan Gaines (60.5 tackles, 4 passes defended) and top corner Tevin Mitchell (24.5 tackles, 1 Int, 4 passes defended.) 

Mississippi State

The calling card of the Bulldogs the last several years has been a very stout defense that keeps games close enough for the offense to score enough o win.  Last year, that D held up until the end of October, when it allowed more than 30 points in every game except against a very down Arkansas unit.  A lot of the fall apart can be placed at the stunted pass rush, which ranked just 105^th in the nation.  Hopefully with the return of both DEs Denico Autry and Preston Smith both return after combining for 8.5 sacks, and 9 QB hurries to go with 15 tackles for loss.  The front line will also return two former 4 star recruits at DT in Kaleb Eulls and PJ Jones, and 5 star recruit Chris Jones joins the program to provide an interesting rotation.  The LBs also return most of their top players, starting with MLB Benardick McKinney, who had 73.5 tackles and 4 passes defended.  The secondary though lost 4 of its top 5 players, leaving only FS Nickoe Whitley with his 69 tackles and 3 Ints.  CB Will Redmond will be looking to take a starting spot after red shirting his freshman year.  To help offset some of the defenses losses and inefficiencies, the offense must be better after ranking 60^th in points per game.  QB Tyler Russell isn’t the typical Dan Mullen QB, but he has shown he’s a solid passer with his 24 TDs to just 10 Ints, and 7.4 yards per attempt.  He will have some trouble though increasing just a 58.6% completion rate after over 52% of his targets are now gone.  Only Robert Johnson and Jameon Lewis were targeted more than 20 times from the WRs.  Both were not big play guys, combining for just 272 yards on their 27 catches, and a 55% combined catch rate.  Freshman Fred Ross is a 4 star recruit that might be able to fill the big play ability lost with Chad Bumphis.  The running game leaned on LaDarius Perkins who averaged 5 yards per carry.  He had 28 runs of 10 yards or more, and picked up 45 first downs on 205 carries.  Backup Josh Robinson averaged 6.09 yards per carry, and had 9 runs of 10 yards or more on just 55 carries.   The offensive line has 88 starts amongst the top 5 players, so the running game should continue to produce.

Auburn

Gus Malzahn returning to coach Auburn might just be enough to pull the offense up from the dredges it fell last year, ranking 114^th in points per game.  There was a bit of a QB competition to see if last year’s incumbents Kiehl Frazier or Jonathan Wallace could improve on a disastrous season.  They lost out though to Nick Marshall, a JUCO transfer that through for 3142 yards with 18 TDs and 20 picks at Garden City CC.  While a bit prone to interceptions, Marshall is an excellent runner as well, picking up over 1000 yards and scoring 20 times last year.  With Marshall at QB, it should hopefully open up more running lanes for Tre Mason, who averaged 5.9 yards per carry and scored 8 times for a pretty horrific offense.  4 star RB recruit Johnathan Ford and Junior (JUCO) Cameron Artis-Payne were both impressive in the spring game, and will look to eat up the remaining carries.   The receivers are all inexperienced, with no one getting more than 19 targets last year.  The whole group though has a high ceiling, with eight 4 star players amongst the group.  The line should also be better with a return of 70 combined starts for the group.  Dee Ford, the 238 pound DE will lead the defensive line after posting 6 sacks last year with 28.5 tackles.  The rest of the group was again highly recruited, with almost every player sitting at 4 stars.  The back 7 is a veteran group, with MLB Jake Holland posting 52.5 tackles last year.    Safety Demetruce McNeal had 71.5 tackles, 7 of them for loss with 4 pass break ups last year.  The group will need to force more turnovers though, since they had only 1 Int last year. 

Conference Winner: ‘Bama

In what should be an exciting rematch of last year’s title game, the Tide’s experience and defense should be just enough to get past Georgia once again, and likely cement themselves into a title game for another year.