Saturday, August 17, 2013

Conference USA Preview

By Rich Douglas


C-USA has not been immune to the realignment fever that has gripped college football the past several years.  Louisiana Tech, UTSA, Florida Atlantic and Middel Tennessee State all arrive, just as Memphis leaves, and conference mainstays Tulane, Tulsa and East Carolina prepare to depart.  With a shift like that the power structure could easily get turned upside down, especially with several schools graduating a lot of Seniors.



Eastern Division Winner : Marshall
The Thundering Herd’s offense was actually pretty solid in 2012 behind the arm of Rakeem Cato.  The now Junior completed nearly 70% of his passes last year with a better than 3:1 TD:Int ratio.  He averaged 6.6 yards per attempt, somewhat brought down by his incredible 584 attempts.  He’s an athletic QB, being able to pick up yardage in the running game (31 carries, 199 yards) but more importantly he has excellent pocket presence.  He took a sack rate of just 4.6%, despite an offensive line that had 6 different starting lineups.  Cato will get back his top receiving target in fellow Junior Tommy Shuler, a former 3 star recruit that had a 78% catch rate and averaged 8.1 yards per target.  He will also return two experienced receivers to help make up for the loss of about a third of his targets last year in Demtrius Evans and Gator Hoskins.  Both had excellent catch rates (Evans: 69.6%, Hoskins 79.5%) and good yards per target (6.2 and 8.5 respectively).  The offense also should feature an excellent stable of RBs, starting with the explosive Kevin Grroms.  Grooms averaged over 6 yards per carry and found the end zone 8 times, with fellow Sophomore Remi Watson scoring 7.  Watson averaged 4.8 yards per carry, just behind Steward Butler, who had 500 yards on 101 carries with 3 TDs.  The offensive line should also be improved after all the shuffling last year, with 8 players now having at least 2 starts with the program.  The defense though is another beast though, after one of the most disappointing seasons in recent memory allowing 43 points per game.  The sack rate fell sharply, and the team ranked 82nd in adjusted sack rate.  However, this year it could see a dramatic upswing, starting with the return of 3 of the top 4 defensive linemen, and 10 who played in at least 3 games.  DE Jeremiah Taylor lead the team with 5.5 sacks, and NT Brandon Sparrow had 35.5 tackles, 9 TFL and 5 sacks.  The LB corps has its strength in the middle, with Junior Jermaine Holmes who was a playmaking machine with 13.5 tackles for loss.  Strong Side backer DJ Hunter also returns (former 4 star recruit) after leading the team as a freshman with 74 tackles, and had a pair of pass break ups.  The secondary does also lose the two starting safeties, who combined made roughly 22% of all the Thundering Herd’s tackles.  They will return though their top two corners in Derrick Thomas (4 passes defended, 41 tackles, 1 Int), and Darryl Thomas who last played in 2011, defending 7 passes and picking off one. 

The offense should be able to keep on chugging, and if the defense remains healthy the experience of the unit should cause them to take big steps forward.  The schedule is also favorable, matching up against a couple of conference newcomers and facing just one Automatic Bid Conference team in Virginia Tech (who could be in for a down year again).  The Eastern Conference likely comes down to their matchup with East Carolina at the end of the year, which is in Huntington Virginia this year.

East Carolina 
Signal Caller Shane Carden took over two games into the season after having lost a tough battle in Spring Ball.  However, he cemented himself as the started by tossing 23 TDs with just 10 Ints with 6.6 yards per attempt in  his starts.  Carden is also a solid runner, averaging 5.1 yards per carry and scoring 8 times last year, on 56 carries.  His main target was Justin Hardy, a 6’0 wideout who boasted a 71.5% catch rate and 9 yards per target.  His true breakout game was against Marshall in the season finale, catching 16 passes for 171 yards.  Danny Webster is the next top returning pass catcher, having been targeted on 10.6% of Carden’s attempts and catching 69% of those thrown his way.  Carolina also features an explosive running back in Vintavious Cooper,  who cracked the 1000 yard mark  and averaged 5.2 yards per carry with 7 TDs.  The offensive line should be improved as well for a group that allowed a sack on more than 6% of their passing downs, with three returning starters including Will Simmons who has a 2nd team all C-USA player last year.  On the defensive side, the team ranked 96th in terms of adjusted sack rate.  The top two pass rushers on the lien combined for just 3.5 acks, but NT Terry Williams and DE Terrel Stanley did knock down 9 passes (and combined for 9.5 tackles for loss).  The only true pass rush threat is LB Derrell Johnson, who had 7 sacks and 8 more QB hurries to go with it.  ILB Jeremy Grove was the leading tackler with 63 stops.  The secondary didn't give up many big plays, but was not stout, allowing 154 first downs through the air.  FS Damon Magazu had 62 tackles, and played the ball in the air fairly well with 6 passes defended.  CB Adonis Armstrong was targeted often, but was able to defend 14 passes with one Int and 37 tackles. 

FIU
The Panthers will have a new man running a squad that could be a bit of a surprise if several players return to form after disappointing years.  As a Sophomore, QB Jake Medlock was supposed to take a big step forward as the starter after compelting 2/3 of his passes as a freshman, with 6.7 yards per attempt in limited action.  Injuries though slowed down what was overall a very solid season, posting an 8.1 yards per attempt mark, with 13 TDs to just 2 Ints.  He took sacks though (8.4%) and failed to deliver the ball consistently (57.8% completion rate).  His injury history might be enough to cast doubt on the offenses ability to move forward, and it  doesn’t help that the top 2 receiving targets from last year are now missing.  It does open the door though for a pair of explosive type receivers in Willis Wright, a Senior with a explosive play ability (61% catch rate, 9 plays of 25 yards or more, 18 of 15 or more) and Glenn Coleman (59% catch rate, 5 plays of 25 yards or more) to play larger roles.  The running game does get back Kedrick Rhodes, who missed two games and was nicked up most of the year.  Rhodes again has that explosive ability, averaging 4.3 yards  per carry and posting 20 runs of 10 yards or more in his 167 touches.  The running game (and Medlock as well) will have an entirely new offensive lien in front of them though, with no player of starting experience getting a grade higher than 2 stars as a recruit.  The Panthers defense loses its top pass rushing lineman from a year ago, but the middle of the defense should still be able to hold up with a pair of Senior DTs in Greg Hickman and Isame Faciane who combined for 14.5 TFL, 3 sacks, and 2 passes defended.  DE Giovani Francois also could see some increased numbers after ranking second on the team in QB hurries, and posting 4.5 sacks.  The LB corps was decimated by graduations though, with all 3 top players leaving the program.  The new group will likely be anchored by 3 sophomores, who last year combined for 8.5 tackles.  The secondary will also likely take a hit with the loss of its top 2 safeties, but CB Sam Miller and CB Richard Leonard are both back, and combined for 12 passes defended and a pick. 

Southern Miss
One of the stalwarts of consistency in C-USA, Southern Miss had their 18 year winning season streak come to a screeching halt lats year as they went 0-12, averaging under 20 points a game and giving up more than 33.  They however should see a rebound this season, at leats to mediocrity after going 0-4 in games decided by a single possession.  It wont be easy though after both of last years signal callers transferred, and the other 3 that saw snaps still each completed under 50% of their throws.  The best bet might be Redshirt Freshman Kyle Sloter, who is an impressive athlete at 6’4 and 213 pounds, with good arm strength.  The core group of receivers is a veteran group, with 3 Seniors at the top.  Justin Sim, Francisco Llanos and Dominique Sullivan each had sube 60% catch  rates, but Sullivan did post some explosive potential with 9.5 yards per target.  The RBs are a little thin as well, with Jalen Richard and Jeremy Hester combining for just over 500 combined yards last year, and 5 TDs.  Kendrick Hardy was a star in 2010, but he got only 30 carries all of last year.  It might make it tough for them as well with an offensive lien that loses 159 career starts.  The right side will be experienced though, with broth RG Ed Preston and RT Vincent Brown as Seniors.  The defense will lose all star DE Jamie Collins, who had 20 TFL and 10 sacks with 1 QB hurry.  That hurts, since no other player had more than 1 sack on the line.  The center of the defense should be solid against the run with the return of Khyri Thornon (9.5 TFL) and Rakeem Nunuez-Roches (6 TFL).  Luckily, the LB corps return completely, lead by Seniors Alan Howze and Dylan Reda, who combined for 90 stops, 7.5 of them for loss.  The secondary also features a solid bit of experience with 4 of the top 5 members returning from last years unit, including top Corner Deron Wilson who had 9 passes defended, 51 tackles and an Int. 

MTSU
The Blue Raiders could be in line for some severe regression after a season in which they were 4-1 in one possession games.  Senior signal caller Logan Kilgore will be trying to make sure that doesn't happen after a solid campaign last year.  He completed 63.3% of his passes for 7.7 yards per attempt, and had 16 TDs to just 6 Ints.  He also was good at avoiding the rush, getting sacked on less than 2% of his drop backs.  His receiving corps loses Anthony Amos, who had 36% of the targets last year.  But, Senior Kyle Griswold posted a 67.2% catch rate, and averaged 11.8 yards per catch.  Also returning is Tavarres Jefferson, a solid possession receiver who in 2011 had a 73.9% catch rate.  The offensive line will also return every starter from last year, minus C Micah James.  This should help keep some continuity in the running game for Jordan Parker, who last ear averaged 5.1 yards per carry and had 18 runs of 10 yards or more.  The running game will also get a boost from the return of William Pratcher, who also missed the 2012 season with injury.  Pratcher averaged 4.8 yards per carry in 2011, and had 22 runs of 10 yards or more.  The defensive side of the ball will need a drastic turnaround from the defensive line that tallied just 14 sacks last year, and whos leading tackler had just 2 stops behind the line of scrimmage.  There is a lot of depth on the line, and it does have Shubert Bastien, and intriguing player who garnered 3 sacks last year as a Sophomore.  The LB corps is also deep, with all 3 starters returning.  Craig Allen missed a game, but still had 10% of the teams total tackles, 2 of them for loss.  FS Kevin Byard had 2 passes defended and 4 Ints last season.

UAB
Freshman Austin Brown was able to wrest the starting job from Jonathan Perry after just a few games into last season, and had a very mixed year.  He had 15 TDs and averaged better than 7 yads per attempt, but was sacked on 9% of his drop backs and tossed 12 Ints.  His growth in year 2 could be slightly stunted though after losing 3 of his top 5 recievers from last year (~40% of his targets).  He will get back Jackie Williams, a 5’11 Senior who averaged 15.37 yards per catch on his 52 receptions.  He also had a 65% catch rate.  RB Darrin Reaves,  who averaged 4.8 yards per carry and scored 13 times was also instrumental in the passing game.  Reaves had 41 catches for 7.37 yards per catch and a TD.  Freshman backup Bashr Coles had 9 runs of 10 yards or more on his 39 touches.  The offensive line will return an experienced group, with everyone having started at least 3 games in their collegiate careers.  The defensive front is another experienced group,  which may not be such a positive after they failed to generate any real pressure (12.5 sacks as a unit).  Connor Boyett and DE/LB Chris Rabb were the best at generating pressure, combining for 6.5 sacks but just 25 tackles.  This unit also loses Marvin Burdette, the MLB that racked up 123.5 tackles last year, 18% of the team’s totals, with 13 of them for loss.  Like the defensive line, the secondary returns, but after giving up 8.2 yards per attempt and a 65.2% completion rate.  CB Lamracus Farmer had 8 passes defended last yeat to lead the team. 

FAU
The Owls this year have one of the best unheard of receivers in William Dukes, a 6’4 190 pound Junior who last year posted a 67% catch rate and averaged 15.5 yards per catch, with 4 TDs.  Only one other wideout posted a catch rate above 60%, and TE Jonathan Wallace who posted one at 70% had only 2.8 yards per target.  The team will get back DeAndre Richardson, who had a 21.7% target rate in 2011.  Who will be throwing these guys the ball is up for debate though, with Stephen Curtis, Melvin German and JUCO transfer Quez Johnson who had the lead in spring ball.  The running game will need to take a big step forward for the offense to improve and possibly to take some pressure off Dukes, after Jonathan Wallace and Damian Fortner combined for 0 Tds and a sub 4 yards per carry average last year.  The offensive line will be turning over almost everyone, returning just 23 combined starts at C and LT.  There are a lot of Sophomores that will likely step into starting roles, and Red Shirt Freshman Dillon DeBoer who was a 3 star recruit.  The defensive line features one of the more intriguing players in college football, Trevon Coley, a 225 pound DT, who had 28 tackles (2.5 for loss) as a freshman.  DE Corey Henry lead the team with 2 sacks last year.  LB Adarius Glanton had 57 tackles to lead the front seven last year, and had 5.5 for loss, along with 2 Ints.  Andrae Kirk also returns and had 4 TFL and 3 passes defended.  Despite not getting any real pressure from the line, the secondary allowed just a 55.2% completion rate, and just 98 first downs through the air.  CB D’Joun Smith had 8 passes defended. 

West Division Winner: Rice
Taylor McHargue enters his Senior year in a tenuous position.  He struggled early last season, but was pretty solid down the stretch to be able to post a 60% completion rate with 6.8 yards per attempt with a better than 2:1 Td to Int ratio.  However, Driphus Jackson came in when McHargue was injured and threw for 6 TDs with no Ints, and was very impressive against Air Force in the bowl game (15/21, 264 yards, 2 Tds). Whomever gets the snaps at QB will have to deal with losing 2 of the top three receivers from last year, about a third of the targets.  Back is Jordan Taylor, who posted a very nice 61.3% catch rate, and 8.9 yards per target.  They will also have Donte Moore who had 40 targets and a 65% catch rate for 8.2 yards per target.  The run game gets a boost should be solid, if only because the entire offensive line returns and has some experienced depth.  Add in that top back Charles Ross returns for his senior season after averaging 5.4 yards per carry and scoring 5 times, Rice’s offense could be humming if some receivers step up.  The defensive pass rush was tremendous last year, ranking 10th nationally in adjusted sack rate.  And 3 of those top 4 linemen return for another year, combining for 15.5 sacks.  They also had 29.5 tackles for loss, and 114 tackles.  The lB corps will also return 2 of its top 3 players, with Cameron Nwosu (73.5 tackles, 7 TFL, 2.5 sacks, 2 passes defended, 2 Ints) and James Radcliffe (34 tackles, 4.5 TFL, 2 sacks, 1 pass defended) leading the charge.  The secondary is also ridiculously experienced, with no attrition in the off season.  Phillip Gaines only had 28 tackles, but he defended a whopping 18 passes last year, and had 2 TFL.  FS Julius White picked off a pair of passes and defended another 6 while contributing 3.5 TFL amongst his 67 stops. 

The Owls are poised because of their depth and experience to make a big splash in the dawning of the new C-USA.  They have experience and athleticism at the QB position, an experienced line and a defense that returns a lot of dynamic players. 

Tulsa
Cody Green will return for his Senior season in Tulsa, one in which the Senior will be looking for some massive improvements in his game.  He averaged just 6.2 yards per attempt last year, and completed just 54.4% of his passes with 17 TDs and double digit Ints.  He will get back all four of his top 4 wideouts last year, including Keyaris Garrett (55.4% catch rate, 27.5% target rate, 12.6 yards per catch) and the more explosive Jordan James and Thomas Roberson (combined 57.8% catch rate, 15.1 yards per catch 6 TDs).  The backfield will also be a plus, with the top two backs both returning Seniors and having over 130 carries.  Trey Watts averaged 6 yards a carry with 32 runs of 10 yards or more, and Ja’Terian Douglas averaged 6.8 on his 137 touches.  The offensive line will have to replace 90 combined starts, including both offensive tackles and their center (Brian Deshane and Jared Grigg were 1st team C—USA, Trent Dupy was 2nd team).    The defensive as a whole will be in transition starting with the defensive line. Sophomore DE Derrick Alexander being the most productive returning player with his 3 sacks and 5.5 tackles for loss.  Also gone is DeAundre Brown, who amasses 103 tackles with 17 of them for loss last season.  Sophomore Trent Martin is the returning MIKE backer, who had 31 tackles last season.  WILL backer Shawn Jackson had 71.5 stops and 10.5 of them for loss, so the LB corps will still be solid.  The secondary loses out on Dexter Mccoil and Lowell Rose, who combined for 19 passes defended last year.  Safety Marco Nelson will now be the top playmaker, after making 66 tackles defending 3 passes and picking off 2 more. 

LT
Tech was basically two teams last year, an offensive juggernaut that was number one in FBS in points per game with 51.5 points per game, and a defensive sieve surrendering 38.5 points per game, 119th in the nation.  The defensive unit will feature almost all of its players back from a year ago, including pass rush specialist IK Enemkpali, who had 6 sacks and another QB hurry.  The LB corps and secondary though weren’t so lucky.  The top 3 safeties are all gone, as is CB Craig Johnson, who had 36.5 tackles.  CB LeVander Liggins is the top returning playmaker, with 4 tackles, 2 Ints and 11 passes defended.  MLB Mike Schrang is the only returning backer who had more than 3 tackles (33 stops, 2 for loss with a sack and 2 passes defended).  Even if the defense is marginally improved by turning over ineffective players, the offense will likely take a major step back after its turnover.  Gone is QB Colby Cameron, who had 31 TDs to just 5 Ints, averaged better than 8 yards per attempt and completed nearly 70% of his passes.  Replacing him is most likely transfer Scotty Young, formerly of Texas Tech.   Young was a 4 star recruit, so it should help an offense that also will have lost its top 2 wideouts from last year, and 45% of the targets.  DJ Banks is the top returner, a Senior now who had a 63.5% catch rate and 8.3 yards per target.  RB Hunter Lee though was the next leading receiver, with 31 catches.  The running game does at least return Kenneth Dixon, who as a freshman rushed for 6 ayrds a carry and over 1200 yards and 27 TDs.  The offensive line will also turnover almost every starter, with just 16 combined starts between guards Matt Shepard and Larry Banks. 

UTEP
The UTEP offense will need to make some major strides after averaging just 21 points per game, 102nd in the nation last year.  It’ll all start with whomever can win the now two man race for QB, Blaire Sullivan or Texas A&M transfer Jameill Showers.  The smart money is on Showers, who posted solid numbers when given chances with the Aggies (61.4% completion rate, over 7 yards per attempt) and is athletic enough to fit new offensive coordinator  Patrick Higgins vision.  The running game returns its top two ball carriers from last year, the leader being Nathan Jeffery.  A former 2 star recruit, Jeffery averaged 4.9 yards per carry and found the end zone 7 times.  Autry Golden took only 36 carries, but did average 4.5 yards per pop.  The offensive line  though has little experienced depth after losing 56 combined starts from last years team, but keeps the whole left side intact with Juniors Brander Craighead and Jerel Watkins.  The biggest issue could be receivers that don’t catch the ball for another year, after only Jim Jones posted a catch rate above 60% last year (on only 17 targets).  Jordan Leslie is an impact kind of player, averaging 10.2 yards per target, but he has to find a way to haul in more than 53.7% of his passes.  The D line could be in for an upswing after giving up 4.9 yards per carry last year,  since it will return 3 of the top four players.  German Reed and James Davidson combined for 13.5 tackles for loss (mostly against the run) while DE Horace Miller wil be the main man to pressure QBs after posting 6 sacks to lead the team last year.  The secondary and LB corps though don’t share that experience, after losing 3 of the top 5 backers and all of the starting secondary from a year ago.  DB Richard Spencer was a 3 star recruit and will be expected to improve on his just 28.5 tackles and 1 pass defended.  MLB AJ Ropati was also a 3 star player coming in, and should hopefully post better than 40 tackles with just 2 for loss.

Tulane
The Green Wave are entering their last season in C-USA, and will be hoping to do better than they’ve done for the past 7 years.  It’ll start with Washington transfer Nick Montana likely winning the QB job after sitting out his transfer year last season.  At Washington in limited action he completed 57% of his passes and threw 3 TDs and 2 Ints as a Freshman, but was a 3 star recruit.  Montana should get some help in the form of wideout Ryan Grant, a Senior who posted a 58.9% catch rate and 15.1 yards per catch last season.  RB Rob Kelley was the second most targeted player, and picked up 5.7 yards per target.  Xavier Rush is a solid target as well after posting a 74.1% catch rate on 58 targets, and averaged 9 yards per target.  The running game could really use some work after the inefficiency is had last yea,r as top back Orleans Darkwa picked up just 3 yards per carry, and Rob Kelley just 3.5 yards per carry.  The offensive line will return everyone but RT Eric Jones, which should mean a bit of help.  The defensive line could use a bit of help as well after ranking 79th in adjusted sack rate last year, and losing Austen Jacks who had 5 sacks.  Julius Warmsley is the top playmaker after picking up 3 sacks and 6 tackles for loss.  The line also gets a very intriguing transfer in Chris Davenport, a former 5 star recruit for LSU.  MLB Zach Davis had 64 tackles, with 5 for loss and was solid against the pass with 3 defended and an int.  The secondary returns 3 intriguing Sophomores, FS Darion Monroe, and CBs Lorenzo Doss and Jordan Batiste.  Monroe lead the team with 79 tackles, and Doss lead the team with 5 Ints.  Batiste defnded 8 passes, and picked off 1 with his 36 tackles. 


North Texas
Derek Thompson was the signal caller last year, and proved to be a solid player for a team that has been in disarray basically the entire decade.  He had a 1:1 TD to Int ratio, tossing 14 of both and completing just 57.5% of his passes.  He only was sacked though 5 times on his 372 drop backs, and averaged better than 7 yards per attempt.  There is some QB battle going though, with redshirt sophomore Andrew McNulty and transfer Brock Berglund, also a sophomore.  The Mean Green will return 3 of their top 5 wideouts from last year, with Brelan Chancellor being the most explosive with a 62.5% catch rate, and 11.3 yards per target.  Darnell Smith and Carlos Harris both averaged just over 13 yards per catch, and combined for 3 TDs last year.  The running game could take a step forward after providing some solid games last year from Brandin Byrd and Antoinne Jimmerson.  Byrd averaged 4.3 yards per carry, and Jimmerson came in at 5, while the pair combined for 35 runs of 10 yards or more.  The offensive line will also return mostly intact.  The defensive line returns one of its best players, DE Aaron Bellazin who had 26 tackles (9 for loss), 5 sacks with a QB hurry.  He’ll need help though after the pass rush ranked just 89th in adjusted pass rush.  The LB corps will hopefully step up, with the return of 4 of its top 5 players.  Derek Akunne is the most talented of the group., posting 70.5 tackles with 10% of them oing for loss.  Not only a threat against the run, Akunne also had 2 ints and 5 passes defended.  The secondary si lead by Marcus Trice, who made most of his plays against the run (51.5 tackles, 6.5 for loss).  CB Zac Whitfield had 12 pass break ups and 3 Ints, both team highs.

UTSA

The Roadrunners surprised just about everyone last year when they won 8 games, even coming against some pretty inferior competition.  The third year of the program’s existence could be big if the defense can make some serious strides. This starts up front with the pass rush, which ranked 110th in the nation.  DE Cody Rogers and Will Ritter combined for 6 sacks, with DT Jarron Harris also added 3 more.  They also get JUCO transfer Brian Price, a 2 star recruit.  The LB corps will lose MLB Brandon Reeves, but Steben Kurfehs is possibly the more intriguing player, after picking up 4.5 sacks last year and a pass defended as well.  The secondary is well stocked now after HC Larry Coker hit the JUCO and transfer wires hard.  He brought in four 3 star recruits .  The unit will return its top three players from last year as well, lead by FS Triston Wade.  Wade was a playmaker, intercepting 4 passes and defending another 7, along with having 59.5 tackles.  Nic Johnston was the playmaker against the run, tallying 5 tackles for loss amongst his 59 stops.  The defense is poised for a big step forwarddespite the step up in competition.  The offense just needs to do what it did last year, starting with Seior signal caller Eric Soza.  Soza completed 59% of his passes for better than 7.3 yards per attempt and had 20 Tds to just 3 Ints.  Soza also didn’t take sacks, with a minuscule 12 (1.1%) all year.  Soza is also a talented runner who averaged over 6 yards per carry and found the end zone 6 more times.  David Glasco lead the team with 94 carries, and averaged 4.4 yards per carry last season.  Evans Okotcha though got 88 carries and averaged 4.1 yards per carry, finding the endzone 8 times.  He was also the third most targeted receiver, and posted a 74.2% catch rate with a 10.7 yards per target, tops amongst players with 20 targets.  All the top receivers return this year, and cant be much less efficient than they ere last year, as the top receiver Kam Jones posted just 54.3% catch rate.  The offensive line should also return everyone but LT Patrick Hoog.  

Conference Winner: Marshall Thundering Herd

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