ACC Games to watch

The ACC has seven games going this weekend, several of them featuring some interesting story lines and intriguing plays for the weekend.

Wake Forest at Miami
This is a game that will have everyone wondering who exactly both of these teams are.  The Canes have held onto their top 10 ranking so far this season, but the luster of their wins has come off a bit.  Florida is no longer a contender in the SEC, and the rest of their wins have come against teams with a losing records (except GT, who is 4-3) and FCS Savannah State.  Last week they allowed eight tackles for loss against North Carolina, and QB Stephen Morris had just an awful game, getting picked off four times while completing just 54% of his passes.  It was an uncharacteristic game though, since Miami has averaged 36 yards per drive, and gone three and out on just 26% of their drives.  Luckily though, they have Duke Johnson back this week after leaving the game with an injury after averaging over ten yards per carry.  Johnson has 20 runs of more than ten yards this season, and has converted 7-12 third down carries.  The Demon Deacons though might slow that run game up, after allowing just 3.8 yards per carry this year.  Theyve been particularly good the last foru games, allowing only army to break the four yards per carry mark.  The offense though has not lived up to their side of the deal, going three and out 34% of their drives, and averaging just 4.8 yards per play.  Tanner Price is actually having a pretty efficient season at QB, where he's tossed 10 TDs to just 3 Ints, while completing 60.2% of his passes for nearly 7 yards per attempt.  He's got to complete third downs this week though, since he's only converted 30% of his passes for first downs, in large part because he's only completing 50% of those passes on third and 6 or less.

Duke at Virginia Tech
The Blue Devils are just a win away from being bowl eligible in back to back years, and theyve done it by being an impressive offense on 1st and second down.  Their third downs theyve averaged needing just a little over five yards, leading to a 44% conversion rate.  Theyve also been successful in the redzone, closing out 85% of drives that reach the opponents 20.  QB Anthony Boone has been very good since his return from a broken collarbone, carving up Navy with an 82% completion rate, and tossing a pair of touchdowns against a very stout Virginia defense.  The team's top two backs have done their part as well, with Jela Duncan and Josh Snead both averaging well over five yards per carry, and punching in three scores.  They might be a little overmatched though this week against a Hokies defense that has 60 tackles for loss this season.  Jack Tyler has been one of the best defenders at making plays in the backfield, totaling seven tackles for loss with three sacks and five QB hurries.  Theyve also defended a ridiculous 20.5% of passes thrown by opposing QBs, intercepting 6.5% of them.

NC State at Florida State
The match up writes its own story.  FSU is coming off possibly the most impressive victory in football this season, a complete dismantling of a very good Clemson team.  NC State spoiled them last year following the win over Clemson as well though, in a come from behind surprise.  Can the Wolfpack do it again this year?  They'd need a nearly perfect game from Pete Thomas at QB, who is coming off an awful game against Syracuse where he completed just 49% of his passes for only 4.3 yards per attempt.  He has eight ints this season with only three tds, but has been able to convert 43% of his third down attempts, 57% of them when the distance is six or less.  They also don't go three and out very often, with only 21% of their drives ending that way.  Its unlikely to matter though if the defense can play much better than allowing a 60% completion rate in conference play.  FSU is likely to pull away though, especially at home if NC State doenst play perfectly, and thats unlikely to happen for a team that barely got by Richmond at home.