The Tigers were able to get past the pesky A's in 5 games to reach the ALCS again, while the Sox never were really in trouble against the Rays as they rolled through the ALDS. Now its time for these two powerhouse clubs to face off in what should be an exciting series featuring some real power ptichers and some amazing offenses.
The Red Sox
What a difference a year makes. The Red Sox were in complete disarray, winning just 69 games and firing Bobby Valentine. The clubhouse was somewhat fractured, and there were doubts the Sox could turn it around in one year. However, it turned out to be just a blip on the radar, with the Sox winning 30 more games this year and scoring 120 more runs. What was the biggest key in this? The offense exploded, after psoting a 96 OPS+ in 2012 the bats roared to life with a 118 mark. Their wOBA rose 30 points, and their BABIP was up by 28 to .329. One of the biggest lifts the Red Sox got was from the inspired play of Jarrod Saltalamacchia. Salty posted an OBP of .338 and from it saw his oWAR rise to 3.5 from just 2.2 last season. Dustin Pedroia continued to be the offensive leader though, with a wOBA of .347. Pedroia has hit into a lot more groundballs this year with a 1.81 GB/FB ratio. Jacoby Ellsbury was able to steal 52 bases this year, more than twice as many as the next closest player on the team. Mike Napoli was probably the biggest addition in the offseason, replacing the plate appearances of Adrian Gonzalez and James Loney last year (with a healthy dose of David Ortiz as well). He rewarded the Sox with a 129 OPS+, a near career best .39 K/BB and an ISO of .223. The Red SOx offense is very dangerous going forward, as they dominated the Rays pitching in the ALDS scoring 27 runs in the four games.
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| Red Sox leading batters Please note wRAA, wRC+ are both scaled by 100 to fit |
The Sox pitching was well above average, posting a 21.7 WAR as a unit. They stranded 74.5% of opposing hitters, and had a league average BABIP. They somewhat outperformed their xFIP, which was 3.89 compared to an ERA of 3.79. They ranked 8th overall in park adjusted ERA-, with just a 91 score. Jon Lester started 33 games for the team this year, and posted a 7.47 K/9 while walking just 2.8 batters over the same span. His FIP beat his ERA (3.59 to 3.79), despite seeing opposing batters make more contact with his outside the zone pitches than at any other point in his career at 47.1%. This did cut down on his Line drive percentage, which was below 20% again after jumping last year. John Lackey had a resurgent season after a couple down seasons in Boston He posted an above career average K/9 rate at 7.65, and walked just 5.1% of batters. He had a team best 85 ERA- and a solid 3.86 FIP, and just a 3.56 SIERA. He got batters behind the count by hitting 64.3% of his first pitches for strikes, and got a swinging strike rate of 9.8%. Ryan Dempster started a lot of games for the Red Sox, but was not really very effective anywhere else. He posted a 4.5 ERA (4.21 xFIP, 4.68 FIP). HE had just a 110 ERA-, largely because he walked more than 10% of batters he faced and gave up 1.37 home runs per 9 innings. Because he started just 16 games, a lot of people have not taken notice of Clay Bucholz's excellent season. He struck out 23% of opposing hitters while allowing just a .198 average against. He stranded 84% of runners that did get on, good enough for a ridiculous 42 ERA-. Jake PEavy rounds out the starting battery, posting a 101 ERA- and a solid but average 4.03 xFIP. PEavy refound his cutter this year, throwing it in place of a slider that was much more hittable. We would be remiss if not mentioning possibly the best reliever in all of baseball right now, Koji Uehara. Koji saved 21 games this year, but did it by overpowering and bewildering opposing batters. He struck out 38% of opposing hitters and walked just 3%. He was able to induce a career best .84 GB/FB ratio. He sues an excellent split finger fastball, and also worked in a curveball at times this year that was a positive pitch.
The Tigers
Detroit has a Pythagorean value of 99 wins this season, thanks in large part to a 110 OPS+. They did it by limiting their strike outs, only getting K'd 16.8% of the times, best in the league. Their wOBA was second only to Boston at .341, and they were a top ten team in terms of ISO at .151. Miguel Cabrera is obliviously the name to know for the Tigers, as he goes they go. He had a .455 wOBA in 652 plate appearances and had a ridiculous .288 ISO. HE had a nearly 1:1 walk to strikeout rate as well, with a 1.078 OPS. Teams pitched Cabarera in the zone this year with a 41.5% mark, the highest he's seen in 5 seasons, which he made contact with 88% of them. Prince Fielder had a .819 OPS this season, with a .358 wOBA. Vicotr Martinez played in 159 games, the most he's ever played in a season while giving the Tigers a .9WAR with a .340 wOBA and striking out just 9.3% of the time. The Tigers don't run much with jsut 38 stolen bases, but Austin Jackson has their best SPeed Score at 6.1 for his 8 SB this year.
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| Tigers hitters Please note wRAA and wRC+ are scaled by 100 to fit |
The pitching staff is of course star studded from top to bottom. The expected starters are Anibal Sanchez, Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander and Doug Fister. Scherzer is of course the favorite to win the AL Cy young, winning 21 games with a 10.08 K/9 rate and a 6.4 WAR. His ERA of 2.9 is right in lien with his 2.74 FIP and 3.16 xFIP, and he stranded 74.4% of opposing batters. HE also only walked 2.35 opponents per 9 innings of work. He also got straikes on 64.5% of his first pitches. Justin Verlander had a 10.5% swinging strike rate, with an 8.95 K/9 rate. He had an ERA- of 85 and a FIP of 3.28. This of course is put to some shame by Sanchez, who had a 63 ERA- and just a 2.39 FIP and 2.91 xFIP. Sanchez was the best at keeping the ball in the park on flyballs, allowing just a .45 HR/9 innings of work. HE also nearly hit the 10K/9 mark. Doug Fister was the unluckiest pitcher with a .332 BABIP, but still managed a 90 ERA-. He did it in part by keeping hitters from going after his pitches in the zone, where they swung on just 56.5% of his pitches a team low. He also only walked 5% of batters he faced. As a whole, the Tigers pitching was pretty darn good, striking out 23.3% of opposing batters with an ERA- ogf 88. They combined for 29.3 WAR, and induced groundballs at a steady 1.34 per fly ball rate.Joaquin Benoit is the team's closer, saving 24 games, striking out 27.6% of opposing hitters while walking 8.3%. He stranded 87.3% of runners, and had an xFIP of 3.16.
Prediction: Red Sox in 7. Both teams can hit, and they both can pitch. The Sox have a slightly deeper 9 when it comes to being at the plate, and the best reliever in the league right now.
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