MAC Game of the Week Preview and Players to Watch: NIU vs Kent State

By: Rich Douglas

The Huskies of NIU will face their first MAC squad this year in Kent State in a rematch of the overtime thriller of a championship game last year.  NIU is fresh off a pounding given to B1G foe Purdue, while Kent State looked more like most folks had predicted with the return of Dri Archer from injury.

Free pick after the jump

When NIU has the ball:

The Huskies offense runs through QB Jordan Lynch, a preseason dark horse for the Heisman.  He’s guided NIU’s offense to 6.4 yards per play,  and a 90% conversion rate in the endzone (with a 36% third down conversion rate), despite some down numbers from last season.  Lynch is completing 65% of his passes for 7 yards per attempt with 10 TDs and just 2 Ints.  He’s turned in some big plays  with 19 completions of 15 yards or more, but hasn’t looked so stellar on third downs, converting just 9 of 26 attempts, with just a  50% completion rate.  With the graduation of Martel Moore, Da’Ron Brown and Tommylee Lewis have stepped up to fill the void.  Lewis is the go to player on first downs, with 15 of his 26 catches coming on them for 10.33 yards per catch and 4 of them for 15 yards or more.  Brown is the man that Lynch looks for on third downs though,  with all 5 of Brown’s catches converting for firsts.  Lynch is also the leading rusher for the team, both in attempts and nominally in yards per carry (77 and 5.7 respectively).  Cameron Stingily has come on as the starter at RB, with 61 carries for 310 yards and 3 TDs.  Stingily is a bit of a thumper at 244 pound,s converting 7 of his 11 third and short carries while averaging a respectable 2.2 yards per carry in the redzone. 

Kent State has not been very efficient on defense.  Theyve allowed a 40% conversion rate on third downs, 21 of 22 red zone drives to end with a score, and a pretty abysmal 6.8 yards per play.  Having said that, they did hold Penn State to just 5.2 yards per play, and allowed only 310 yards last week against WNU in Kalamazoo.  Roosevelt Nix is the undisputed leader of this unit, with 21 tackles, 7 of them for loss with a sack and 2 QB hurries.  Senior safety Luke Wollet leads the team with 36 tackles, and has an Int and 2 passes defended.  The pass defense has been good, forcing just a 56.5% completion rate, and have actually been pretty good on third down passes allowing only 52.6% of the passes to be completed, and a 34% conversion rate.  The run defense has been the achilles heel so far, allowing 5.25 yards per carry and an even worse 5.9 in the second halves of games.  Sophomore LB Matt Dellinger needs to make more plays amongst his stops (29 of them) in the backfield to helo turn this trend around.  

When Kent State has the ball:

What a difference a single player can make for a unit. Dri Archer had just 6 carries against Western Michigan, but tallied 73 yards on the ground (more than the whole team had in either of the previous two games) and he added another 48 with a TD on 4 catches.  His explosive abaility (3 big run plays, 1 through the air so far) is what opens up things the rest of the offense, and it will certainly help Colin Reardon, the freshman starting QB.  Reardon has completed just 59.4% of his passes for a measly 5.8 yards per attempt. Its slightly strange to see Reardon;s yards per attempt so low, when better than 10% of his passing plays have been for more than 15 yards,  but a second half completion rate of 52% will force that down.  Chris Humphrey and Tyshon Goode each have 21 catches, but are averaging just over 10 yards per catch.  

NIU's defense has shown some vulnerability, allowing a 36% conversion rate on third downs and nearly 6 yards per play to opposing offenses.  They given up 20 runs of 10 yards or more, and 32 passing plays of 15 yards or more so they can be had by the big play.  Perez Ford has been the playmaker along the line, with 6 tackles for loss (4 sacks) in his 10 total tackles to lead the team.  Senior safety Jimmie Ward leads the team with 39 stops, and also has 3 Ints with a pass defended.  CB Marlon Moore also has 3 passes defended and an Int for the secondary.  Jamaal Bass leads the front seven in tackles with 28, but needs to make more plays in the backfield with just 2 sacks and no tackles for loss in the run game.

What's our take:

Kent State is going to be more explosive again now that Dri Archer is back, and the Huskies defense has not shown that it can consistently stop the pass or the run.  We also know that Kent State has not shown up on defense, with their only real solid game coming as a stopping of winless Western Michigan.  This game is likely to feature a lot of scoring, take the Over 62.5