SEC Games to Watch

A pair of games this weekend in the SEC will truly begin to define the expectations for some teams down the stretch.  Some of the teams with how injuries will affect them going forward, while others will seek to establish if they're contenders for a shot at the title game.

Auburn at Texas A&M
The Aggies defense is the limiting factor for them this year, where they're giving up 6.5 yards per play on offense.  Opposing passers have been slightly above average, completing 58% of their passes for 7.3 yards nd 17 TDs.  However, the run defense has given up 37 runs of more than 10 yards, 48% conversion rate on third downs, and 4.4 yards per carry in the redzone (and over 5 in the maroon zone overall).  The offense makes up for a lot of the deficiency, with their 7.6 yards per play and 57% third down conversion rate.  But Auburn's offense is no slouch, averaging 6.8 yards per play with an 87% conversion rate in the redzone.  They also have a trio of backs in Tre Mason, Cameron Artis Payne and Corey Grant who have a majority of the team's 54 runs of 10 yards or more.  The defense also has a way of making plays in the backfield (49 TFL by 22 different players) that can derail the Aggies offense.  Its unlikely enough to win in College Station, but could make the game a bit more exciting.

Florida at Mizzou
Its going to be interesting to see if Maty Mauk can crack this Florida defense and keep Mizzou's offense rolling.  Leading into this game, the Tigers had averaged 40 yards per drive, starting at their own 34, and had gone three and out on just 20% of their drives.  The Tigers did outscore Georgia 13-0 last week after James Franklin's injury, and the running game has been a monster with all three of the backs averaging over 5.5 yards per carry, and picking up 49% of their third down carries.  The Mizzou defense hasnt been great this year, and has allowed opposing passers to complete 63.5% of their passes for an average 6.6 yards per attempt.  They've defensed 10% of those passes attempted against them, but have forced 13 interceptions.
We will also get to see if Florida's offense can really start to generate some points, with just four TDs and three field goals that last three games.

Georgia at Vanderbilt
Both of these teams have faced adversity this season.  Vandy's has been off the field and has followed them since this summer, while Georgia has dealt with injury after injury after injury.  Vanderbilt's raw defensive numbers have been solid, allowing just 5.5 yards per play and a 41% third down conversion rate.  Against conference foes though theyve allowed 6.5 yards per play, and theyve failed to generate turnovers in part because theyve only sacked or pressured opposing passers on 7% of their dropbacks.  The Georgia defense has been exposed the past several weeks, in part because the offense has struggled to move the ball like it had at the start of the season by averaging under 35 yards per drive.  They also go three and out too often, seeing 40% of their drives end that way the last two weeks.  Both of these offenses can roll though, so look for a lot of points.  Play the over 62, since Georgia has failed to score 30 just once and Vandy has scored at least 30 in 3 games.