NLCS Preview

After dispatching Atlanta and Pittsburgh respectively, the Dodgers and Cardinals meet up in a matchup between two storied franchises with plenty of firepower. Early betting lines are indicating that this should be a close series as the Dodgers have opened as -130 favorites.

For the Dodgers:

Hitting

The Dodgers don't have Matt Kemp, and Andre Ethier isn't 100%, but here are some stats that will make LA supporters feel much better with the likes of Puig, Hanley, Gonzalez, Crawford, and yes Juan Uribe in the lineup.

-They led the NL in WAR with 27.5 though a lot of that had to do with their rangy defense.
-They were 2nd in the league in wRC+ with 106
-3rd in the league in wOBA (.318) & also 3rd in OBP (.327) which is really surprising seeing as how Luis Cruz started the season at 3rd base *cringe*
-4th best in the league in K% with 18.6%. Seeing a trend here?

Things to take away from this: They're really good at hitting the baseball. Pretty Simple. There's one issue though, and I'll get to that later. (Spoilers: The Cards are better!)

Pitching

Just how good is Clayton Kershaw? Well, Sandy Koufax proclaimed "He's the first Clayton Kershaw. He doesn't deserve to be compared to anybody." Things are going well when arguably the greatest modern era pitcher gives you praise like that. He'll have 2 Cy Youngs by the age of 25 and is the best pitcher in baseball. Kershaw is the model for consistency as he's led the Majors in ERA and finished in the top 3 in FIP the past 3 seasons.

Zack Greinke has performed admirably as the other Ace in the Dodgers staff. His 2.63 ERA is a bit lower than expected and has been fueled by an 80.8 LOB% and a lower HR/FB ratio. This is not too surprising though as he pitches half his games in the friendlier confines of Dodger Stadium and has also incorporated a changeup used to have batters roll over weak ground balls. He's seen a small dip in his K ratio, but he's pitching efficiently and with plenty of accuracy.

Speaking of Changeups, Hyun Jin Ryu has exceeded expectations his rookie year as the Korean Lefty should finish in the top 5 for rookie of the year voting.  He throws more offspeed pitches than just about any pitcher (~50% of the time), but has been victim to fatigue as the season has worn on. They'll need him to come up big as he will face bonafide Ace Adam Wainwright in Game 3.

Ricky Nolasco is scheduled to pitch Game 4 for the time being. That could all change if the Dodgers find themselves in a bind and are in a must win situation. Nolasco is 8-3 with a 3.54 ERA with the Dodgers, but struggled greatly down the stretch.

Kenley Jansen has been incredible since he was handed the closer role, and is the closest thing to Mariano Rivera these days. That's not to say he's as dominant as Mo was in his prime, but his steady diet of Cutters reminds everyone of the Yankees closer. In his first full season closing games, he's already a top 5 closer. Brian Wilson and Paco Rodriguez have been relied on late in the game. Both looked great in the regular season, but Paco struggled against the Braves and will probably be relegated to lower leverage situations. J.P Howell is having a career season and will take over left handed specialty situations.


For the Cards:

Hitting

Remember how the Dodgers were in the top 5 in the important hitting categories I listed? Well the Cardinals are too.

-Lead the league in Offensive WAR.
-Oh, also led the league in wRC+, take that Dodgers.
-2nd in wOBA.
-1st in K%
-1st in OBP
-You get the picture.

Now Allen Craig is out after having a career season, but Big Matt Adams hasn't been a dropoff at all from a hitting perspective. He's of course got the range of a traffic cone at first base, but so does Adrian Gonzalez, it's a common theme.

Pitching

Adam Wainwright will be pitching in Games 3 and 7 (if necessary) and will obviously pose a major threat to a banged up Dodgers lineup. He's got that rare mix of power and accuracy you desire in an Ace (6.26 K/BB ratio) and has arguably the best curveball in the league. He goes to it a whopping 27% of the time, and why not, Fangraphs lists it with a value of 17.1. To put that into perspective, Clayton Kershaw's curve is rated at 12, which is still really good.

Joe Kelly will be my main target next year to regress back to the mean. I haven't been impressed with his 2.69 ERA as his FIP and xFIP are both north of 4.00. This is in part because of both low K totals (5.73 per 9) and high walk totals (3.19 per 9). Kelly has a high LOB% rate of 82.4 and should be primed for a major drop off. Will the Dodgers exploit his weaknesses? I say yes, and it's no surprise to me that he's listed as a home underdog in Game 1.

Michael Wacha is as big an X-Factor as there can be. He's carried a no hitter late in his last 2 starts and should develop into a top level pitcher next season. He's out to prove that he's already at an elite level and I see no reason to deny that notion. The 22 year old fireballer is primarily just a Fastball-Changeup pitcher, but uses his Curve as a possible out pitch as well.

Shelby Miller should start ahead of Joe Kelly, but he won't. Go figure. According to Chad Thornburg of MLB.com, he might be looked at to start Game 4. The other Cardinals 22 year old rookie was very consistent throughout the year and is built very similarly to Wacha. Miller, however, has an established curveball that rates as an above average pitch.

Trevor Rosenthal has rightfully taken the closers role from Edward Mujica and has been lights out this season. Mujica seems to be overlooked now as a viable option late in games, and the Cards may lean more towards Lance Lynn if things get crazy late in games. After Lynn, it's Carlos Martinez who leads an unreliable bunch that should be considered as the weak point of the team.

Prediction: Dodgers in 6. Why? Because of Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke. Simple as that.