Big 12 Game Preview: Oklahoma vs Texas

By: Rich Douglas

The Red River rivalry.  In past years it has defined the top of the Big 12, and a team that would have BCS aspirations.  It still could do these things this year, despite the preconceived notions about the directions of these two teams.

When Texas has the ball: 
The Longhorns certainly hear the rumblings this year after starting the year just 1-2, and getting blown out by both Ole Miss and BYU.  The loss of David Ash to a concussion cannot be overstated, because of his ability as a passer (61% completion rate, 8.7 yards per attempt) and running (4.9 yards per attempt).  Case Mccoy does not share Ash's athletic ability nor his comfort level in the Texas offense.  Because of an inability to stretch the field (just 11 passes of 15 yards or more), he's only completing 57% of his passes in the second half of games and is converting just over a third of his third down attempts.  It hasnt helped that Daje Johnson has missed time as the most athletic receiver, but none of the team's top three receivers is averaging more than 11 yards a catch.  However, the Texas offense is efficient at 6 yards per play on offense, and going 3 and out just 26.7% of their drives.  They also have been able to gain 33 yards per drive.  The  run game has looked much better in Austin than it has in several years, as Johnathan Gray has been the bell cow by picking up 5.4 yards per carry.  Gray isn't overly explosive with his 13 runs of ten yards or more, but he's consistent, gaining at least 4 yards per carry from his 20 yard line and on.  The offensive line needs to button up a bit though after allowing 33 tackles for loss, and 22 QB hurries with another 9 sacks.

The Sooners defense has stifled opposing passers by allowing just a 51% completion rate and under 6 yards per pass, while picking off 6 passes.  Theyve gotten off the field on third downs by allowing just 26% of passing third down attempts to convert, all while only producing eight sacks and sixteen QB hurries.  Charles Tapper is the best pass rusher, accumulating four QB hurries and two and a half sacks.  Sophomore LB Frank Shannon has been the most active defender, making 34 tackles with an interception, and a pair of QB hurries.  Gabe Lynn and Julian Wilson each have a pair of interceptions, and have four passes defended.  Freshman Zack Sanchez has defended nine passes so far as the team.s leader.  The run defense will be tested though, giving up over four yrads per carry.  THey do tighten up in the redzone, giving up just four rushing TDs and 2.1 yards per carry

When Oklahoma has the ball:
The Sooners offense has blossomed with Blake Bell under center.  We detailed his ascent last week, right before he had a tough day against TCU.  He averaged just 4.9 yards per attempt, and the offense went just three for thirteen on third downs.  The offense did average thirty yards per drive last week, but thats down from a seasonal average of 35 yards per.  Sterling Shepard and Jalen Saunders each had 5 catches, but were only able to muster 67 yards.  THe run game though continued its dominance by averaging better than 5.3 yards per carry and scoring twice. Brennan Clay had the biggest day last week with his second one hundred yard game of the season, doing it on just nine carries.  He has twelve runs now of ten yards or more on his 68 attempts, so just under 1 in 5 of his touches go big.

The Longhorns defense has not put fear into anyone this season.  Theyve allowed nearly six yards per play on offense, and over 5.1 on the ground.  Opponents are converting 46% of their third downs, and have scored on 19 of their 21 red zone trips.  They do have 29 tackles for loss, lead by Jackson Jeffcoat and Cedric Reed who each of five.  The pair have combined for five sacks and nine QB hurries as well.  Jordan Hicks leads the team with 35 tackles.  The secondary has just been average, allowing 11.67 yards per catch
and a nearly 60% completion rate.  Cedric Reed has four passes defensed to lead the team, with the
senior CB Carrington Byndom having 2 to lead members of the secondary (the team has just 14 so far).

What's our take:
Texas is 2-0 in the Big 12, and still is likely to make a bowl.  It won't matter for Mack Brown's job though if they get blown out by the Sooners.  Rivalries can always have weird things happen, and Brown and the Horns are playing for his future at the school.  Oklahoma is the better team and should win, its just a matter of degree.