SEC Game Preview: Florida at LSU

By: Rich Douglas

LSU welcomes the Gators in a matchup that should macth strength verus strength, with LSU's explosive offense suaring off against a stout Florida defense.  Both teams continue in the must win every week SEC, LSU to keep pace and have a chance to overtake Alabama.  FLorida is looking to possibly overtake a hobbled Georgia squad, but will need more offensive production to do so,

When Florida has the ball:
The Florida offense is a bit better than their numbers would suggest, since their disastrous game against Miami(FL), they've been perfect in the redzone going 6-6.  That redzone drive rate though is low, especially for a team that has national title aspirations.  They dont go 3 and out at all really, with just a 27% rate and a 50% conversion rate on third downs.  Theyev done it by need to only gain 6.4 yards on third downs, one of the best marks in the country.  Tyler Murphy in his two starts has shown a penchant for hitting the deep ball, with 14 plays of 15 yards or more so far.  He's been the man on third downs as well, converting 75% of his attempts for third and nine or less.  Senior wideout Solomon Patton has not dropped a pass yet this season, and has 9 catches of 15 yards or more.  He's also converted all of his third down catches, including a pair on third and 10 or more.  Trey Burton leads the team in cacthes with 23, and is averaging a solid 12.3 yards per catch.  The run game is certainly more of a question mark, with Matt Jones and Mack Brown effectively splititng carries but averaging under 4 yards per carry.  Jones had a big game against Kentucky, picking up 176 yards but was held to just 50 on seventeen carries last week, and did not score.  Brown on the other hand has been a consistent 3.5 yards per carry player, and hasnt scored since the first week of the season.  The run game has only 26 runs of 10 yards or more, ranking in the lower half of the nation.  The offensive line needs work quickly to help this, and a passing game that its allowed QBs to be pressured on 9.5% of their dropbacks.

The Tigers defense continues to be solid, but not dominating this year. Theyve allowed just a 36.6% third down conversion rate, and 5.4 yards per play.  LSU has been susceptible to running attacks, giving up over five yards per carry their last three games.  Last week they had only two tackles for loss in the run game, a season low and the point where Mississippi ran for over six yards per attempt.  The passing game's of opponents have been slowed though, where only one opponent has completed more than 60% of their passes, and they have allowed under seven yards per pass.  Jermauria Rasco could breakout this week after leading the team with four QB hurries but it translating into just one and a half sacks.  It will also be a test for Kwon Alexander to make some plays since he leads the front 7 with fourteen solo tackles, and Lamin Barrow who has 30 assisted tackles.

When LSU has the ball
Zach Mettenberger has made us believers.  He has become one of the elite passers in the nation this year, averaging 11 yards per attempt and completing 68% of his passes.  His game against Georgia was a clinic, dropping passes over coverage with adept touch.  His excellent play has helped lead to the Tigers averaging nearly 40 yards per drive, in just 5.5 plays per.  Theyve only gone 3 and out on 25.5% of their drives, an excellent mark.  Jarvis Landry and Odell Beckham Junior continue to be the 1a and 1b options in the passing game, combining for over 1300 yards and 77 catches.  In all of that, neither one of them has a drop yet this season.  The run game has complemented itself just as well, with Jeremy Hill averaging 7.5 yards per carry, Terrance Magee at 6.4 and Alfred Blue at 5.  The only game where the team has failed to gain at least four yards per carry was against Georgia.  They rebounded with 5.7 against Mississippi State, and overall have 39 runs of 10 yards or more with a 50% conversion rate on third down carries.

The Gators defense though will be the toughest challenge the Tigers have faced all season.  Opposing QBs have completed under half of their passes for only 4.6 yards per attempt this season, and have been picked off 8 times.  This has been in part due to a withering pass rush that has eleven sacks so far, and another 20 QB hurries.  Dante Fowler Jr. has three of those sacks in his five games, contributing to his seven tackles for loss and has two forced fumbles.  Senior Jaylen Watkins leads the team with 27 stops, and has four passes defended so far.  A freshman though has proven the most deadly to QBs, Vernon Hargreaves has picked off three passes to lead the team and has five passes defensed.  Arkansas was able to find a little running room against a unit that has lost Dominique Easley, but still allowed only 3.8 yards per carry to one of the best backs in the SEC.  Its the second half though where the Florida run defense has made its mark, allowing under one yard per carry, and just four runs of 10 yards or more (a total of 51 yards).

What's our take:
Florida is better than their national perception would lead people to believe, but the LSU offense is the ebst its been in years, if not ever.  The defense is solid enough to contain an efficient Gators offense on a few drives, and Les Miles is a magician in Baton Rouge at night..  LSU -7.5 is the play