By: Rich Douglas
Oklahoma has surged back to life in the Big 12 after Blake Bell took over the signal calling duties from an ineffective Trevor Knight, and has become the new favorite to win the conference with Ok State floundering against West Virginia. TCU started the season as a dark horse to win the conference, and is still in it, but absolutely needs to shock the world after starting just 2-2 this year.
Free pick after the jump
When Oklahoma has the ball:
Blake Bell had the starting QB seemingly his to lose in spring and fall camps, and lose it he did. Some rumors swirled Bell didn't prepare himself properly to be able to take on the starters role, and so it went to the younger Knight. However, Bell has dismissed those rumors now with two strong outings as the starter by completing 71.2% of his passes for 9.4 yards per attempt with 6 TDs and not a single Int so far. Bell so far has been solid in the passing game on third downs, converting just under half of his attempts and throwing 3 TDs. He of course still remains a running threat, though he's only been asked to do so 26 times in all of Oklahoma's games so far, averaging 4.38 yards per carry (although 27% of them have been for more than 10 yards). His play has already helped the Sooners be better on third downs, in large part because their average distance to go has dropped form 7 yards to just 4.5. This has also been because of the running ability fo Seniors Brennan Clay and Damien Williams. Clay is averaging 5.75 yards per carry and has 10 runs of 10 yards or more. Williams is averaging 4.38 yards per carry in the redzone, and a ridiculous 6.7 in the maroon zone. Jaz Reynolds needs to be a bigger part of the offense, as a player who last year had more than half of his catches go for more than 15 yards and so far this season has only 6 catches.
TCU's defense is still a strength of the team, allowing opponents to gain just 4.8 yards per play on offense, and allowing more than 20 points to just LSU (20 to Texas Tech on a very weird night in Lubbock). They havent been able to keep opponents from scoring in the red zone though, allowing points on all 13 trips. Marcus Mallet leads the front seven with 22 tackles, 5 of them for loss with a pair of sacks and a forced fumble. They have been an active bunch in the backfield, with 37 tackles for loss already. Jon Lewis has 5 as well with Mallet to lead the team. He;s also the leading pass rusher on a group that has struggled somewhat to create consistent pressure without Devonte Fields (15 sacks, but 7 of them against SMU) with just 6 QB hurries. This hasnt stopped the secondary from playing well, with 9 Ints and 24 passes broken up. Sam Carter and Chris Hackett have three picks apiece, while Jason Verrett and Kevin White have 7 and 6 passes defended respectively. Hacket and Elisha Olabode lead the team with 24 tackles apice as well.
When TCU has the ball:
Casey Pachall was supposed to return this season and lead the Horned Frogs attack after starting last year so well before a long hiatus to deal with his personal demons. This year hasn't work so well, as Pachall was injured in the second game and Trevone Boykin has had to step into the starting role again. Boykin looks improved from a year ago as a freshman thrown into the fire, completing 60.9% of his passes for 7,2 yards per attempt, but has just 4 passing TDs to go with 2 Ints. Boykin has been pretty solid in the maroon zone so far this year, completing 63% of his passes fro 3 TDs and a single Int, with 6 plays of 15 yards or more. Boykin has looked the way of Brandon Carter more so than any other player so far, with Carter catching 13 passes for 12 yards per. Josh Docston has shown some big play ability, averaging 17.43 yards per catch, and has a TD. The offense though runs through BJ Catalon and Wayymon James on the ground, both players averaging more than 5 yards per carry. Catalon has 9 runs of 10 yards or more, with James adding another 4 and a 5.4 yards per carry average in the 4th quarter.
The Sooners have allowed just 4.9 yards per play on defense this year, and just a 28.6% third down conversion rate. the defense hasn't allowed almost anyone to get to the redzone, with just 7 opposing trips all season and only 5 ending in points. Frank Shannon leads the team from his LB spot with 27 tackles, The pass rush hasn't been there so far, with just 4 sacks so far as Jordan Phillips leas the squad with 1.5. They do have 15 QB hurries though, as LB Eric Striker and DE Charles Taper each have 4 apiece. Gabe Lynn and Julian Wilson though each have 2 Ints, and Zach Sanchez has 5 passes defended. This is a seasoned unit in the secondary that has allowed opponents to complete just 48.6% of their passes for only 4.9 yards per attempt. They have given up some plays in the run game with opponents averaging 4.92 yards per run.
What's our Take:
The TCU offense is not very efficient, going three and out on 37.3% of their drives and gaining just 26 yards per drive on average. The Oklahoma offense on the other hand goes three and out on just 27% of their drives and gets on average 11 yards more per drive than the Frogs do. But the Sooners also have allowed opponents to convert 40% of their third downs, so TCU has a chance with their running game to make this game close. They won't be able to sustain it though, as Oklahoma pulls away at home. They've got enough fire power with Bell to pull off the win, and cover -10
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